Macy’s (M) Stock: Q3 2025 Earnings Beat, Raised Outlook

Macy’s Inc. (NYSE: M) just delivered one of its strongest quarters in years – and yet the stock slipped after the news. On December 3, 2025, the department-store giant reported a surprise profit, its best comparable-sales growth in 13 quarters and another upgrade to full‑year guidance. Still, investors focused on a cautious holiday outlook and lingering structural challenges in department-store retail. ^[1]

This article pulls together the key news, forecasts and analyses published since 3 December 2025, to give a clear, up‑to‑date picture of where Macy’s stock stands now.

Macy’s stock today: near a 52‑week high, but off post‑earnings

As of the close on December 3, 2025, Macy’s stock traded around $22.46, down about 1.1% on the day. Intraday, shares swung between roughly $20.79 and $24.00, reflecting a volatile reaction to the earnings release.

That pullback came just two days after Macy’s hit a new 52‑week high of about $22.98, helped by a series of analyst price-target hikes and optimism ahead of the earnings report. ^[2]

Several outlets report that the stock fell sharply in pre‑market trading after the release – at one point down nearly 7% – before recovering to a modest loss of around 1% as regular trading progressed. ^[3] In other words, Wall Street “sold the news,” but not dramatically, after a big run‑up into the print.

Performance context:

Macy’s shares have gained more than 30% over the past three months, outpacing many retail peers. ^[4]
One recent report notes Macy’s stock is up roughly 34% year‑to‑date in 2025, easily beating broader retail and market indices. ^[5]

Using the midpoint of the updated earnings guidance ($2.10 per share) and a price around $22.46, Macy’s trades at roughly 11× forward earnings – relatively low versus many specialty and big‑box retailers, but with more cyclical and structural risk. ^[6]

Q3 2025: surprise profit and strongest sales trends in 13 quarters

Macy’s fiscal third quarter 2025 (ended November 1) marked a clear acceleration in its “Bold New Chapter” turnaround plan.

Revenue and comparable sales

Across the various data providers and the company’s own release, the picture is broadly consistent:

Net sales were about $4.71 billion, down 0.6% year‑on‑year, but ahead of internal guidance and analyst expectations. Estimates had been closer to $4.56–$4.73 billion, depending on the source. ^[7]
Some services that include additional revenue streams quote total revenue around $4.9–4.91 billion, describing it as essentially flat versus last year but a roughly 4% beat versus Wall Street’s consensus. ^[8]

On the most important metric for retailers – comparable sales – the turn is more dramatic:

Company figures show comparable sales at Macy’s, Inc. up 2.5% on an owned basis and 3.2% on an owned‑plus‑licensed‑plus‑marketplace (O+L+M) basis, the best performance in 13 quarters. ^[9]
For the go‑forward business (the stores Macy’s intends to keep plus digital), comps rose about 2.7% owned and 3.4% O+L+M, suggesting the core portfolio is performing even better than the legacy base. ^[10]
Same‑store sales at the Macy’s nameplate alone were softer but still positive: roughly +1.4% owned and +2.0% O+L+M. ^[11]

This broad‑based improvement breaks a long stretch of negative or flat comps and is being widely cited as evidence that the restructuring under CEO Tony Spring is gaining traction. ^[12]

Earnings: crushing expectations, modest GAAP profit

On the bottom line, Macy’s cleared a very low bar by a wide margin:

GAAP diluted EPS: about $0.04. ^[13]
Adjusted diluted EPS:$0.09, versus analyst expectations for a loss of roughly $0.13–$0.14 per share. ^[14]

Several analysts frame this as a major upside surprise, especially given that the company itself had guided to a loss in the quarter.

Zacks and other research notes highlight the margin and cost side: ^[15]

Gross margin came in around 39.4%, slightly above internal forecasts but about 20 basis points lower year‑on‑year, with a roughly 50 bps drag from tariffs.
SG&A expenses were approximately $2.02 billion, down 1.9% year‑over‑year and about 90 bps lower as a percentage of revenue, thanks to a mix of cost cuts, store closures and disciplined spending. One article notes roughly $40 million in SG&A savings versus the prior year.
Adjusted EBITDA was about $285 million, a 5.8% margin, modestly higher than last year and well above consensus estimates near $210 million. ^[16]

However, not all of the profitability story is rosy. A separate breakdown focusing on GAAP metrics points out that: ^[17]

Operating profit fell to around $42 million (down more than 30% YoY).
Net income attributable to common shareholders was only about $11 million, down more than 60% from a year earlier.
Operating cash flow for the quarter swung to roughly –$8 million, and free cash flow remained negative, although less so than last year.

So while adjusted numbers show improved earnings power, underlying profitability and cash generation remain fragile.

Brand performance: Bloomingdale’s and Bluemercury shine

One consistent theme across the coverage: Macy’s higher‑end concepts are doing much of the heavy lifting. ^[18]

Bloomingdale’s posted comparable sales growth of about 8.8–9.0%, marking its fifth consecutive quarter of positive comps and the strongest in 13 quarters.
Bluemercury, Macy’s luxury beauty chain, grew comps around 1.1%, extending an impressive multi‑year streak of growth.
The “Reimagine 125” upgraded Macy’s stores outperformed the broader nameplate, with comps in the low‑to‑mid‑single‑digit range.

AP and other outlets stress that Macy’s skew toward middle‑ and higher‑income shoppers – roughly half its customer base – has helped cushion the impact of a “K‑shaped” economy where lower‑income consumers are under more pressure. ^[19]

Raised full‑year guidance – but a cautious holiday quarter

The most important forward‑looking news from December 3 is Macy’s second consecutive upgrade to its 2025 guidance – paired with a more downbeat tone for the current holiday quarter.

Full‑year 2025 outlook

Across Macy’s own release and multiple research notes, the updated guidance looks broadly like this: ^[20]

Net sales (full year):
- New range: $21.48–$21.63 billion
- Prior range: roughly $21.15–$21.45 billion
- Street consensus was around $21.3 billion, so the new midpoint is modestly above expectations.
Comparable sales (O+L+M):
- Now expected to be flat to +0.5% vs 2024, instead of down 1.5% to 0.5%.
- For the go‑forward business, Macy’s now sees comps flat to +1%, versus a prior outlook of a decline.
Profitability:
- Adjusted EBITDA margin is now forecast around 7.8–8.0%, up from about 7.4–7.9% previously.
- Core adjusted EBITDA margin is guided to roughly 7.5–7.8%, slightly higher than earlier indications.
Adjusted EPS:
- New range: $2.00–$2.20 per share
- Prior range: $1.70–$2.05
- Several outlets highlight the midpoint jump to $2.10, a double‑digit percentage upgrade versus prior guidance. ^[21]

In short: Macy’s now expects slightly higher sales and significantly higher earnings for the full year than it did earlier in 2025.

Holiday 2025 (Q4) guidance: the main disappointment

The sticking point for investors is the holiday quarter outlook:

Macy’s now expects Q4 adjusted EPS of $1.35–$1.55, with the midpoint below Wall Street’s $1.55 estimate. ^[22]
It sees Q4 net sales of $7.35–$7.5 billion, which could modestly beat consensus on the high end but is framed as essentially flat in comparable‑sales terms. ^[23]
Management repeatedly stresses that consumers are more “discerning” or “choiceful” about non‑essential purchases, and that inflation and deal‑hunting patterns could make December especially volatile. ^[24]

Analysts generally view this cautious stance as prudent but note that it underwhelmed a market that had just pushed Macy’s stock to fresh highs, making any hint of holiday softness a trigger for profit‑taking. ^[25]

Why did Macy’s stock fall after such a strong quarter?

Most of the December 3–4 commentary boils down to three main explanations for the post‑earnings dip in M stock:

1. “Beat and lower‑than‑hoped guide” dynamic

From Barron’s to Reuters and TipRanks, coverage emphasizes a classic “beat and guide cautiously” pattern: ^[26]

Earnings and comps comfortably beat expectations.
Full‑year guidance went up.
But Q4 profit guidance sits below consensus, and management is leaning heavily on language about picky, deal‑driven consumers and a choppy macro backdrop.

That combination often leads investors to question the sustainability of a strong quarter, particularly in cyclical, discretionary sectors like department stores.

2. Macy’s has already re‑rated higher

Several analysts and market commentators note that Macy’s had rallied hard into earnings, supported by: ^[27]

Optimism around the Bold New Chapter strategy.
Rising price targets from a number of firms.
Short covering and momentum as the stock broke out to new 52‑week highs around $23.

With the shares trading well above many published price targets, even a strong quarter wasn’t enough to justify further multiple expansion in the eyes of cautious analysts.

3. Structural worries: flat revenue and pressured cash flow

Some deeper‑dive notes are more skeptical:

One analysis highlights that while revenue was slightly up or flat year‑on‑year and ahead of estimates, operating profit and net income declined materially, and operating cash flow turned negative in Q3. ^[28]
Another points out that sell‑side consensus still expects Macy’s revenue to decline about 4% over the next 12 months, even after the guidance increase – a sign that the Street sees the current improvement as more a stabilization than a new growth cycle. ^[29]

Put simply, the quarter shows Macy’s can execute well in a tough environment, but hasn’t fully escaped the gravity of department‑store headwinds.

Inside the “Bold New Chapter”: store closures, upgrades and real estate

Many of the December 3 articles explicitly link the Q3 beat to Macy’s multi‑year restructuring.

Store closures and “go‑forward” fleet

Macy’s is aggressively reshaping its store base: ^[30]

In January 2025 the company confirmed the closure of 66 “non‑go‑forward” Macy’s stores, part of a plan announced in early 2024.
The Bold New Chapter strategy calls for closing about 150 underproductive stores over roughly three years, while investing in about 350 “go‑forward” locations through fiscal 2026.
Several real‑estate–focused reports add that Macy’s expects to generate around $275 million from property sales in 2025, as it monetizes real estate tied to exiting locations. ^[31]

Q3’s better‑than‑expected comps in the go‑forward business suggest these closures and investments are starting to improve productivity, even as absolute sales remain under pressure.

Reimagine 125 and premium banners

The quarter also underscores Macy’s pivot toward experience‑led flagships and premium concepts: ^[32]

Reimagine 125 – a program to modernize about 125 key Macy’s stores with new layouts, services and assortments – is delivering above‑average comps, according to the company and Zacks.
Bloomingdale’s and Bluemercury continue to be bright spots, benefiting from affluent customers and exclusive merchandise.
Macy’s is also leaning into its media network and credit‑card business, with Q3 credit‑card revenues up more than 30% year‑on‑year, contributing to earnings upside. ^[33]

These elements help explain how Macy’s can produce solid comps and a profit in a quarter where many consumers are described as cautious and price‑sensitive.

What analysts are saying about Macy’s (M) after December 3

The flood of December 3–4 commentary reveals a deeply mixed view of Macy’s stock.

Street rating: mostly “Hold,” with a wide spread of targets

TipRanks and QuiverQuant both show a cautious consensus: ^[34]

Around 12 analysts have weighed in over the last three months.
Recommendation mix: 1 Buy, 10 Holds, 1 Sell, yielding an overall “Hold” consensus.
Average or median price targets from these datasets cluster around $16–$16.30, implying 20–30% downside from the current ~$22–23 share price.

At the same time, other data providers highlight a higher consensus:

One FMP article notes the consensus target has risen to about $22, up from $18.83 last quarter and $14.50 a year ago, with one Deutsche Bank analyst as high as $32. ^[35]

The discrepancy largely reflects different sample sets and update timings, but the consistent theme is that:

Macy’s current share price is at or above many published targets, even after the Q3 beat.

Key recent rating moves

Several high‑profile calls around December 1–3 frame the debate: ^[36]

Telsey Advisory Group
- Rating: Market Perform (essentially Hold)
- Target: $22, raised from $17 in late November and reaffirmed around the earnings date.
Citigroup
- Rating: Neutral
- Target: $19, up from $16.
UBS
- Rating: Sell
- Target: $7, raised from $6.50 on December 1. Despite the increase, this target sits far below the current share price, implying expectations of a meaningful decline.
Zacks Investment Research
- Ranks Macy’s as a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy), noting that the stock could outperform the broader market near term after its earnings and guidance beat.

MarketBeat and other aggregators note that, despite several recent target hikes, the overall consensus rating remains Hold, with a mid‑teens average target and a few firms (like Deutsche Bank) standing out as more bullish. ^[37]

Post‑earnings takes: bull vs. bear framing

Recent articles fall broadly into two camps:

More constructive views emphasize that: ^[38]

Macy’s has proven it can grow comps and generate a profit again.
The Bold New Chapter plan is clearly improving store productivity.
The balance sheet is relatively solid, with no major debt maturities until 2030 and positive year‑to‑date operating cash flow despite Q3 seasonality.
At roughly 11× forward earnings, the valuation doesn’t look stretched if the turnaround continues.

More cautious or bearish pieces focus on: ^[39]

Flat or declining revenue expectations over the next year.
Compression in operating profit and negative Q3 operating cash flow.
Persistent structural headwinds: mall traffic, competition from off‑price and online players, and the need for ongoing promotions.
The fact that the median analyst target is well below the current share price, suggesting limited upside unless fundamentals improve further.

Both sides, however, largely agree that Macy’s is no longer in free‑fall and that management has earned more credibility after back‑to‑back quarters of better‑than‑expected results.

Key risks and opportunities for Macy’s investors, based on current coverage

While nothing in this article is investment advice, the December 3–4 commentary highlights several themes that prospective investors are watching closely.

Opportunities

Turnaround momentum
Stronger comps across Macy’s, Bloomingdale’s and Bluemercury – plus raised guidance – suggest the strategy is working, at least operationally. ^[40]
Store optimization and real‑estate monetization
Closing underperforming locations and monetizing real estate could boost margins and cash flow over time, even if total sales stay flat. ^[41]
Higher‑income customer base
Macy’s strong exposure to middle‑ and upper‑income shoppers – especially via Bloomingdale’s and Bluemercury – gives it a relatively resilient base if lower‑income consumers stay under pressure. ^[42]
Attractive valuation if earnings hold
If Macy’s can deliver around $2.10 in adjusted EPS, an 11× multiple is not demanding versus many retailers, especially with a dividend and buybacks in the mix. ^[43]

Risks

Holiday uncertainty and promotional pressure
Management is openly cautious about Q4 demand, flagging inflation, deal‑seeking shoppers and a potentially volatile December. Missed holiday expectations could quickly dent sentiment. ^[44]
Long‑term revenue stagnation
Consensus forecasts still point to little or no revenue growth, even after the guidance upgrade. Without sustained top‑line expansion, Macy’s may remain a low‑multiple value story, vulnerable to macro shocks. ^[45]
Margin and cash‑flow volatility
The divergence between healthy adjusted EBITDA and weaker GAAP profit and operating cash flow shows how fragile margins can be in a highly promotional environment. ^[46]
Mixed analyst and investor positioning
Data on insider and institutional trading show both insider selling and significant position cuts by some large funds, even as others add shares. Combined with a Hold‑heavy rating mix, this suggests limited conviction on either side of the trade. ^[47]

Bottom line: what December 3’s news means for Macy’s stock

Since 3 December 2025, the message from earnings reports, company releases and analyst commentary is remarkably consistent:

Operationally, Macy’s is improving: comps are positive, guidance is higher, and flagship concepts like Bloomingdale’s and Bluemercury are performing well. ^[48]
The consumer backdrop remains tricky, and Macy’s own holiday forecast acknowledges that it may not fully control its destiny in the near term. ^[49]
The stock is no longer priced for distress. After a major rally in 2025, Macy’s trades near its 52‑week high and around or above many published price targets, leaving less obvious upside unless the turnaround accelerates further. ^[50]

For investors and readers following Macy’s:

The next key catalyst will be holiday‑quarter results and any further updates to 2026 guidance.
Execution on store closures, real‑estate monetization and the Reimagine 125 program will help determine whether the current stabilization can turn into durable growth.
Given the split between bullish and bearish analyses, Macy’s remains a high‑debate turnaround story rather than a consensus favorite.

As always, this article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Anyone considering an investment in Macy’s should evaluate their own risk tolerance and, if needed, consult a qualified financial adviser.