NEW YORK, Jan 3, 2026, 06:03 ET — Market closed
- Trump said U.S. forces struck Venezuela overnight and captured President Nicolás Maduro
- Oil, gold and the dollar closed Friday little changed, leaving room for a “risk-off” repricing on Monday
- Traders are watching Trump’s weekend briefing, Sunday’s OPEC+ meeting and U.S. jobs data on Jan. 9
Investors head into the weekend with a fresh geopolitical jolt after U.S. President Donald Trump said U.S. forces struck Venezuela overnight and captured President Nicolás Maduro. Venezuela’s government declared a national emergency and denounced what it called U.S. “military aggression,” while Trump said he would give more details at an 11 a.m. press conference. 1
The stakes for markets are straightforward: any escalation that threatens crude exports can lift oil prices, while broader uncertainty tends to send money into safe-haven assets such as U.S. Treasuries and gold.
The timing also matters. The strike lands at the start of 2026, with major U.S. indexes near record levels and traders already focused on a heavy January slate of economic data.
Price discovery will wait until Monday, when U.S. cash markets reopen and stock index futures — contracts that trade outside regular hours — provide the first real read on risk appetite.
On Friday, the Dow rose 0.66% to 48,382.39 and the S&P 500 added 0.19% to 6,858.47, while the Nasdaq slipped 0.03% to 23,235.63. Brent crude settled at $60.75 a barrel and U.S. WTI ended at $57.32; spot gold was at $4,329.57, the dollar index at 98.43, and the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield finished at 4.191%. 2
Oil’s setup into the Venezuela headlines has been a tug of war between geopolitical risks and a market that still looks well supplied. “Despite all these geopolitical concerns, the oil market seems unmoved,” said Phil Flynn, senior analyst with the Price Futures Group, describing prices as locked in a long-term range. Traders also face an OPEC+ policy meeting on Sunday that analysts expect to keep supply settings steady into early 2026. 3
Venezuela’s market link runs through sanctions, crude flows and distressed debt. U.S. sanctions and recent tanker seizures have halved Venezuela’s normal oil export rate, while Chevron has continued to ship Venezuelan crude under a special U.S. license, Reuters reported; Venezuela’s defaulted international bonds have broadly doubled since Trump took office in January 2025, though they still trade at distressed levels. 4
Any sustained disruption to Venezuelan barrels would tighten heavy crude supplies and could lift energy shares, while higher fuel costs would be a headwind for airlines and transport.
Oil majors with direct or indirect exposure to Venezuelan flows, including Chevron and Exxon Mobil, are likely to be in focus if Washington signals tighter enforcement or if operations in Venezuela’s ports and producing regions face interruptions.
In a “risk-off” move — traders’ shorthand for selling riskier assets — money often rotates into cash and safe havens such as U.S. Treasuries, gold and the Japanese yen. Whether that pattern shows up on Monday will depend on confirmation around Maduro’s status and any signs the conflict expands.
The Venezuela shock also arrives ahead of key U.S. catalysts that can move rates and equities. Investors are watching the Jan. 9 jobs report and Jan. 13 consumer inflation data, while fourth-quarter earnings season begins with JPMorgan on Jan. 13; the S&P 500 is near record highs but around the same level it was in late October, and the VIX volatility index was last just above its lows for the year, Reuters reported. 5
Before Monday’s session, traders will parse Trump’s promised briefing for clues on the scope of the operation and whether Washington signals a longer campaign. Markets will also watch for any response from Venezuela’s military and regional governments.
In commodities, the key question is whether Venezuela’s production and exports continue to function normally, and whether sanctions enforcement tightens further. Oil traders will weigh those signals against any guidance from OPEC+ on supply policy and the size of the 2026 surplus.
For now, investors face a weekend of headline risk with limited liquidity, and a Monday open that may force markets to decide how much geopolitical risk premium to price into oil and global assets.
