McDonald’s Corporation (NYSE: MCD) finished Tuesday’s session (Dec. 23, 2025) lower, even as the broader U.S. stock market pushed further into record territory. With U.S. markets set for a holiday-shortened session on Wednesday, Dec. 24 (Christmas Eve), investors are weighing whether Tuesday’s pullback is routine year-end repositioning—or an early warning that sentiment around consumer spending is cooling.
Below is the full after-the-bell snapshot, the key narratives driving today’s coverage and analysis, and the practical checklist to watch before the opening bell tomorrow.
McDonald’s stock after the bell: the key numbers
McDonald’s shares closed at $310.84, down 1.70% on Tuesday. The stock traded between $310.63 and $314.12 during the regular session, with volume around 2.88 million shares—a softer tape that fits the holiday-week pattern. StockAnalysis
In after-hours trading Tuesday evening, MCD was modestly higher, quoted around $311.00 to $311.49 (roughly +0.05% to +0.21% from the close, depending on the venue/time stamp). StockAnalysis
For context, MCD remains within reach of its 52-week high ($326.32) but still sits below it after Tuesday’s dip. MarketWatch
Why McDonald’s fell even as the S&P 500 hit a record close
Tuesday was a “risk-on” day in the indexes. The S&P 500 closed at a record, supported by stronger economic-growth headlines, with major benchmarks generally higher. Wall Street Journal
Yet McDonald’s didn’t follow the market up. In day-by-day trading, that kind of divergence often comes down to a mix of:
- Sector rotation: Investors chasing momentum elsewhere (particularly in mega-cap growth or cyclicals) while trimming “steady compounders.”
- Holiday liquidity: Lower participation can exaggerate moves in either direction.
- Consumer crosscurrents: The latest sentiment data increasingly matters for restaurant stocks, even for value-oriented brands like McDonald’s.
On that last point, Tuesday also brought fresh evidence of weakening consumer sentiment: the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index fell to 89.1 in December, extending a multi-month decline. Both Reuters and AP highlighted that consumers remain preoccupied with prices/inflation and tariffs, alongside growing worries about jobs and income. Reuters
McDonald’s is often treated as a “defensive” restaurant stock because of its scale and franchise-heavy model—but it is not immune to a market narrative that consumer confidence is wobbling.
Competitive context: MCD outperformed some restaurant peers despite dropping
Even though MCD ended red, it held up better than some major restaurant peers on the day. MarketWatch’s session recap noted McDonald’s fell 1.70%, while Starbucks dropped more sharply and other large peers also declined. MarketWatch
That relative performance matters because investors frequently trade the group as a basket: when the tape turns cautious on consumer spending, money may rotate within the sector toward brands perceived as having stronger value positioning and global diversification.
Today’s forecasts: what analysts are projecting right now
A widely circulated Zacks update published late Tuesday emphasized that investors are now looking ahead to McDonald’s next earnings report, including near-term consensus expectations:
- Next-quarter EPS forecast: ~$3.00
- Next-quarter revenue forecast: ~$6.81 billion
- Full-year consensus EPS: ~$12.08
- Full-year consensus revenue: ~$26.67 billion Finviz
Zacks also flagged valuation: McDonald’s was described as trading at a forward P/E around 26 (a premium versus the broader restaurants group in their framework), and the service assigned McDonald’s a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). Finviz
Separately, Investing.com’s consolidated analyst dashboard showed an average 12‑month price target around $331 (with a wide high/low range), implying mid-single-digit upside from current levels—typical of a mature mega-cap where much of the debate is about quality vs. price paid. Investing
Today’s analysis: bullish technicals vs. cautious fundamentals
Tuesday’s commentary on McDonald’s stock wasn’t one-sided—it split into two very different camps:
1) Technical analysts pointed to a “golden cross” signal
A Benzinga technical-analysis piece published Tuesday highlighted that McDonald’s recently flashed a “Golden Cross”—a chart pattern where the 50-day moving average rises above the 200-day moving average, often interpreted as improving longer-term momentum. Benzinga
This doesn’t guarantee gains (no indicator does), but it helps explain why some traders still view dips as potentially “buyable” in a market that has rewarded trend-following strategies.
2) Fundamental bears focused on demand/traffic limits and cost pressure
In contrast, a Seeking Alpha note published Tuesday downgraded McDonald’s to Hold and set out a more restrained upside view, citing slowing demand, rising SG&A, and a reliance on price rather than traffic growth. The piece also argued that while the franchise model supports cash flow and dividends, operational progress may be flattening. Seeking Alpha
The takeaway: today’s stock action fits a market that still respects McDonald’s durability but is less willing to pay up without clearer traffic-driven growth.
Macro backdrop from today that investors are connecting to restaurant stocks
Even when a company has no headline-specific news, restaurant stocks can move on macro releases that change the perceived trajectory of discretionary spending.
Two big data points dominated Tuesday’s tape:
Durable goods orders: negative surprise
The U.S. Census Bureau reported that durable goods new orders fell 2.2% in October (after two monthly increases). Census
Durable goods is not a direct read-through to fast food demand, but in a holiday-thinned market it still shapes the narrative about how resilient the U.S. consumer and economy really are.
GDP and confidence: growth looks strong, sentiment looks shakier
Multiple outlets reported that Q3 GDP growth came in strong (4.3% annual rate)—supportive for the broader market tone—while consumer confidence moved the other direction. Wall Street Journal
For McDonald’s investors, this combination can create a strange push-pull:
- Strong GDP can lift equity risk appetite overall.
- Weak confidence can pressure consumer-facing names if investors expect spending to slow.
What to watch before the market opens tomorrow (Wed., Dec. 24, 2025)
Tomorrow is not a normal trading day. It’s Christmas Eve, and U.S. equity markets will run on an early-close schedule.
1) Trading hours: expect a shorter, thinner session
- The NYSE and Nasdaq close early at 1:00 p.m. ET on Wednesday, Dec. 24, 2025. New York Stock Exchange
- The bond market typically closes earlier too (commonly 2:00 p.m. ET on Christmas Eve). SIFMA
Why this matters for MCD: early closes often bring lower volume and wider spreads, especially midday. Moves can look “bigger” than they really are, and late-session price discovery is compressed.
2) Scheduled economic release before the bell: jobless claims
Market calendars show Initial Jobless Claims are scheduled for 8:30 a.m. ET on Wednesday, Dec. 24 (covering the week ending Dec. 20). MarketWatch
That’s one of the few macro catalysts that could still jolt premarket sentiment on a holiday-shortened day. If the number surprises meaningfully, it can quickly shift the tone for consumer-facing stocks.
3) The “real” next catalyst isn’t tomorrow—it’s earnings season
Investors tracking McDonald’s are already looking past the holiday week toward the next major fundamental checkpoint. Investing.com lists McDonald’s next earnings report date as Feb. 4, 2026. Investing
Between now and then, the stock’s day-to-day direction often hinges on:
- updates in analyst estimates and price targets,
- consumer spending signals,
- commodity and wage expectations,
- and any company-specific headlines on promotions, traffic, or franchise initiatives.
A practical checklist for MCD traders and investors heading into the Dec. 24 open
Here’s what’s most actionable to monitor overnight and premarket:
- After-hours stability: MCD held roughly around the low $311 area after hours—no sign of a major late break. StockAnalysis
- Holiday liquidity risk: With the 1 p.m. ET close, consider that even routine order flow can move prices more than usual. New York Stock Exchange
- Macro headline risk at 8:30 a.m. ET: jobless claims can set the tone quickly. MarketWatch
- Consumer narrative: confidence data weakened in December, which can keep investors sensitive to any “trade-down” or traffic commentary across restaurants. Reuters
- Street tone split: technicians are highlighting a bullish longer-term pattern, while some fundamental commentary argues upside is limited without stronger demand. Benzinga
The bottom line on McDonald’s stock tonight
McDonald’s stock closed down on Dec. 23 while the market hit records—an important reminder that even high-quality, mega-cap consumer names can lag when investors rotate and when macro narratives shift. StockAnalysis
Going into the Dec. 24 open, the two biggest “setup” factors are straightforward:
- It’s a holiday-shortened session (1 p.m. ET close), which can distort normal trading signals. New York Stock Exchange
- Macro sentiment is mixed—GDP strength on one hand, but weakening consumer confidence on the other—keeping restaurant stocks sensitive to any new read-throughs on spending and employment. Wall Street Journal
This article is for informational purposes only and is not investment advice.
