Medical Properties Trust (MPW) Stock in December 2025: Dividend Hike, Heavy Short Interest and a High‑Risk Turnaround

As of December 10, 2025, Medical Properties Trust, Inc. (NYSE: MPW) sits in one of the market’s strangest spots: the hospital REIT has rebounded strongly this year, raised its dividend, and yet still ranks among the most heavily shorted stocks in the U.S. ^[1]

The stock trades around $5.54 per share, giving the company a market capitalization of roughly $3.3 billion, with a forward dividend yield in the mid‑6% range after a newly announced dividend increase. ^[2]

Here’s a detailed, news‑driven look at MPW stock today, including the latest developments, forecasts, and what analysts and short sellers are betting on.

What Medical Properties Trust Actually Does

Medical Properties Trust is a specialized healthcare REIT that focuses primarily on hospital real estate. It:

Acquires and develops healthcare facilities (mostly general acute‑care and specialty hospitals).
Leases them out via long‑term, triple‑net leases, meaning tenants cover most operating costs like taxes, insurance, and maintenance.
Supplements rental income with mortgage loans and other financing to healthcare operators, often secured by the real estate itself. ^[3]

As of late 2025, MPW’s portfolio includes roughly 388–396 properties with about 39,000 licensed beds across nine countries, primarily in the U.S. and Europe. ^[4]

That footprint has historically made MPW a go‑to name for income‑seeking investors who want exposure to hospital infrastructure rather than healthcare operators themselves — but tenant problems and heavy leverage have made that thesis much more complicated over the past few years.

MPW Stock Performance in 2025: Big Bounce After a Brutal Slide

Despite all the drama, 2025 has been a strong year on the surface:

Price (Dec 10, 2025): about $5.54 per share.
1‑month performance: roughly +8–10%. ^[5]
3‑month performance: around +18–20% (some sources show closer to +27–28% when including total return). ^[6]
Year‑to‑date / trailing 12‑month total return: in the ~40% range, placing MPW near the top quartile of its sector for recent performance. ^[7]

Zoom out, though, and the picture is harsher:

3‑year and 5‑year total returns remain deeply negative, with cumulative five‑year total return around ‑60%, reflecting the collapse from pre‑2022 levels. ^[8]
MPW still trades far below its prior highs despite this year’s rebound, which is exactly why some investors see a turnaround value play, while others see a value trap. ^[9]

So we have a classic turnaround profile: strong recent bounce after severe multi‑year drawdowns.

The Latest Company News (December 2025 Update)

1. Dividend Increase: 12% Hike and a Higher Yield

On November 17, 2025, MPW’s board announced a 12% increase in its regular quarterly dividend, from $0.08 to $0.09 per share. ^[10]

Key details:

New quarterly dividend: $0.09 per share.
Ex‑dividend date:December 11, 2025. ^[11]
Payment date:January 8, 2026. ^[12]
Annualized dividend: $0.36 per share, implying a forward yield around 6.5–7% at the current price. ^[13]

Management explicitly framed the increase as a signal of confidence in the portfolio’s cash‑flow trajectory and tied it to a newly announced $150 million share repurchase authorization, which gives them optionality to buy back shares if the turnaround continues. ^[14]

The raise is noteworthy because MPW had previously cut its dividend during the worst of the tenant and leverage concerns, then held it at $0.08 for multiple quarters. ^[15] A hike here suggests management believes cash flow is stabilizing — but the payout is still being made against negative GAAP earnings and a highly leveraged balance sheet.

2. Q3 2025 Earnings: Losses on Paper, Cash Flow Still Key

For the third quarter of 2025, MPW reported:

Total revenues: about $237.5 million, slightly up year‑over‑year.
GAAP net loss: approximately –$77.7 million, or –$0.13 per share, driven by impairment charges and high interest costs. ^[16]
Funds from operations (FFO): about $0.15 per share for the quarter.
Normalized FFO (NFFO): roughly $0.13 per share, down from $0.16 in the prior‑year period. ^[17]

Over the first nine months of 2025, normalized FFO per share totaled $0.40, versus $0.62 a year earlier — a clear sign that the company is still working through earnings pressure even as it stabilizes rent collections and re‑tenants troubled assets. ^[18]

The Q3 release also highlighted:

Continued progress in replacing distressed tenants with stronger operators.
Elevated impairment charges on certain properties and investments.
Rising interest expense as debt is refinanced at higher rates. ^[19]

Bottom line: cash flow is positive and improving, but GAAP earnings remain negative, and normalized FFO is lower than last year, leaving limited room for error.

3. Prospect & NOR Lease: Re‑Tenanting a Major Problem Portfolio

A central issue for MPW has been its exposure to Prospect Medical Holdings, which entered a restructuring process in 2025. ^[20]

Recent updates:

MPW expects a NOR Healthcare Systems bid for Prospect’s California operations to close by the end of 2025, pending regulatory approvals. ^[21]
MPW has agreed to a new lease with NOR for six California facilities, with annual rent of about $45 million, indexed to inflation starting in 2026. ^[22]
The lease structure includes full rent deferral for the first six months, then 50% deferral for the next six, with deferred amounts repaid over the life of the lease — a way to support the new operator while preserving contractual rent. ^[23]

Additional portfolio moves reported in late August and Q3 updates include:

A $45 million settlement payment involving Yale New Haven Health to unwind a prior obligation to purchase three Connecticut facilities, with funds used to reduce MPW’s DIP loan to Prospect.
Sales of two Phoenix facilities for roughly $50 million to a current operator.
A series of transactions expected to fully repay MPW’s $105 million DIP loan to Prospect. ^[24]

These steps are all part of management’s goal to achieve more than $1 billion in pro‑rata annualized cash rent by the end of 2026, supported by new leases and asset optimization. ^[25]

4. Balance Sheet and International Refinancing

Leverage remains one of the biggest flashpoints around MPW:

ALREITs data shows debt‑to‑assets of about 65% and debt‑to‑EBITDA above 10x, underscoring a highly leveraged capital structure. ^[26]
Finimize puts net debt to EBITDA around 17x, which is extremely high relative to typical REITs. ^[27]

To improve liquidity and extend maturities, MPW and its partners:

Completed a €702.5 million (approx.) refinancing of a German rehabilitation hospital joint venture in 2025 at about 5.1% fixed, non‑recourse, 10‑year debt. ^[28]
Refinanced $2.5 billion in senior notes and reworked credit lines, pushing out significant maturities and reducing near‑term refinancing risk. ^[29]

These moves reduce immediate funding stress but do not eliminate the leverage problem. Interest expense remains elevated, and the company is still sensitive to funding costs and asset values.

Why MPW Is Back in the Spotlight Today

Among the Most Heavily Shorted Stocks in the Market

On December 10, 2025, MPW appears on Benzinga’s list of the 10 most shorted U.S. stocks, with short interest around 36–37% of its float. ^[30]

Other data sources paint a similar, if slightly lower, picture:

MarketBeat estimates 25.7–31% of the float sold short as of late November, with around 153 million shares short and a days‑to‑cover ratio near 17. ^[31]
Fintel and Yahoo statistics show short float near 31–36%, depending on methodology and date. ^[32]

Earlier in 2025, a widely cited Seeking Alpha analysis noted that short interest had been close to 45% of float, underscoring that while bearish bets have eased slightly, they remain extremely elevated by any normal standard. ^[33]

High short interest means:

The market still sees serious fundamental risk (tenant issues, leverage, asset quality).
MPW is highly vulnerable to volatility, especially around earnings, tenant news, or rate policy.
There is always the possibility of a short squeeze if positive surprises force shorts to cover into limited liquidity. ^[34]

Valuation and Fundamental Snapshot

Recent analysis from Finimize, Simply Wall St and others broadly agrees on a few points: ^[35]

MPW trades at a steep discount to its own history on some metrics (e.g., EV/Sales below its five‑year average), but still at a premium to the broader market because REITs are typically valued differently. ^[36]
Free cash flow yield is very high (Finimize cites ~13%), which appeals to income and value investors. ^[37]
Profitability metrics look weak: return on invested capital near 0% and thin operating margins, reflecting impairments and restructuring noise. ^[38]

So the stock screens as cheap on cash flow, but the quality of that cash flow and the sustainability of rent from key tenants are still debated.

Analyst Ratings and Price Targets

Wall Street isn’t exactly pounding the table on MPW.

MarketBeat (6 analysts over the last 12 months):
- Consensus rating:“Reduce” (a notch below “Hold”).
- Breakdown: 2 Sell, 3 Hold, 1 Buy.
- Average 12‑month price target:$5.63, only about 2% upside from current levels. ^[39]
Public.com’s aggregated view (4 analysts as of Dec 10, 2025):
- Consensus rating:Hold.
- Average price target: around $5.62, essentially in line with the current price. ^[40]
Simply Wall St’s narrative pegs a fair‑value estimate near $5.14, seeing the stock as modestly overvalued by around 6% at current prices, with consensus price targets slightly below the market price. ^[41]

Finimize also characterizes sell‑side sentiment as “cautious optimism”, with a cluster of Hold‑type ratings and price targets hovering around the mid‑$5s to upper‑$5s. ^[42]

Taken together, the analyst crowd is not betting on big upside from here. The consensus view is that MPW is a high‑risk, limited‑upside turnaround rather than a slam‑dunk bargain.

What the Latest Forecasts Say About Earnings and FFO

Public.com’s digest of analyst estimates highlights an expected 37–38% drop in core FFO in 2025, followed by only a partial recovery of roughly 20% in 2026. ^[43]

That pessimism reflects:

Debt refinancing at higher rates, squeezing interest coverage.
Ongoing uncertainty around recoveries from tenants like Steward and Prospect.
The likelihood that MPW may need to sell more assets to address debt maturities or portfolio risk, potentially diluting future earnings. ^[44]

On the positive side:

Management has set a target to exceed $1 billion in annualized pro‑rata cash rent by end‑2026, based on new leases like NOR’s and continued re‑tenanting efforts. ^[45]
ALREITs data shows normalized FFO per share around $0.58 on a trailing basis, suggesting that if impairments slow and interest costs stabilize, today’s $0.36 annual dividend may be reasonably covered by FFO. ^[46]

The tension between those two narratives — high but fragile cash flows vs. heavy leverage and tenant risk — is powering both the bullish and bearish cases.

Bull Case vs. Bear Case: How Investors Are Framing MPW

Drawing across Finimize’s structured analysis, company filings, and recent research, the main arguments shake out like this: ^[47]

Bull Case Highlights

High free‑cash‑flow yield and a 6–7% dividend, now growing again, make MPW attractive to income investors who believe the worst tenant problems are behind it.
Triple‑net leases on critical hospital infrastructure provide sticky, long‑duration rent streams once troubled tenants are replaced.
Re‑tenanting (e.g., the NOR lease) and portfolio updates indicate real progress on the Steward/Prospect overhang.
Refinancing and asset sales have improved liquidity and pushed out major maturities, reducing near‑term bankruptcy risk.
Extremely high short interest could fuel sharp upward moves if future earnings and rent collection come in better than feared. ^[48]

Bear Case Highlights

Leverage is extraordinarily high for a REIT, with net debt/EBITDA well into the teens by some estimates; this leaves little margin for error if interest rates stay elevated. ^[49]
GAAP earnings remain deeply negative, and normalized FFO is trending down, not up, versus pre‑crisis levels. ^[50]
Tenant concentration in a handful of financially stressed operators means credit events can quickly translate into impairments and rent issues, as recent years demonstrated. ^[51]
The dividend, while currently covered on a normalized FFO basis, is not immune from future cuts if cash flow underperforms or more assets must be sold at unfavorable prices. ^[52]
Technical analysts warn that after such a large bounce, the stock could be overbought, with downside risk if sentiment reverses or guidance disappoints. ^[53]

In practice, both sides have ammunition, which is why you’re seeing high short interest coexisting with a strong year‑to‑date rally.

Dividend Sustainability: A Closer Look

With a fresh dividend hike announced just weeks before the ex‑date, the obvious question is: how safe is MPW’s 6–7% yield?

A rough reality check based on current information:

Annual dividend: $0.36 per share. ^[54]
Trailing normalized FFO/share: about $0.58, though it’s been declining. ^[55]
Implied payout ratio vs. NFFO: roughly 60–70%, slightly above the 62% payout figure cited by ALREITs. ^[56]

On those numbers, the dividend looks covered but not bulletproof. The key swing factors are:

How quickly new leases like NOR ramp from deferred rent toward full cash rent. ^[57]
Whether MPW can avoid further large impairments and maintain FFO while continuing to fix its tenant mix. ^[58]
The interest rate and refinancing environment in 2026+, as high rates would keep interest expense elevated. ^[59]

For now, the dividend looks reasonably supported by normalized cash flow, but any setback in re‑tenanting or unexpected tenant failures could bring another round of dividend risk back into focus.

So Is MPW Stock a Buy, Hold or Sell Right Now?

As of December 10, 2025, the market’s consensus view is fairly clear:

MPW is no longer priced like a bankruptcy candidate, but
It is still considered a speculative, high‑risk turnaround rather than a straightforward income play. ^[60]

Summarizing the setup:

Pros for bulls: high yield, improving tenant profile, active re‑tenanting, refinanced debt, and the potential for a short squeeze if operations keep normalizing. ^[61]
Pros for bears: heavy leverage, thin margins, still‑messy tenant history, ongoing GAAP losses, and a long track record of value destruction for equity holders. ^[62]

In other words:

Risk‑tolerant, income‑oriented investors who believe in MPW’s ability to stabilize tenants and gradually delever may view current prices as acceptable entry or hold levels, particularly given the raised dividend and positive price momentum.
More conservative investors, or those with low tolerance for volatility and balance‑sheet risk, are likely to agree with the prevailing sell‑side stance: treat MPW as a “Reduce” or neutral position, not a core holding. ^[63]

Regardless of stance, MPW is a complex, high‑beta REIT whose fate is tightly linked to interest rates, healthcare operator credit quality, and management’s execution on re‑tenanting and asset sales.