MercadoLibre (MELI) Stock After the November Sell‑Off: Latest News, Analyst Forecasts and 2026 Outlook

Published: December 11, 2025 – This article is for informational purposes only and is not investment advice.

Where MercadoLibre Stock Stands Now

MercadoLibre, Inc. (NASDAQ: MELI) is ending 2025 in a strange spot: the business is firing on almost all cylinders, but the stock has cooled after a powerful multi‑year run.

Current price: around $1,970–1,980 after a 5% drop on December 10. ^[1]
52‑week range:$1,646 – $2,645.22. ^[2]
YTD performance: roughly +16% in 2025, but only about +5% over the last 12 months and down around 16–18% from mid‑year highs. ^[3]
Six‑month move: shares have fallen about 15–16% in the last six months, lagging the broader retail and internet commerce groups. ^[4]

Since November 21, 2025, the story around MELI has been shaped by three big themes:

Margin pressure after Q3 2025 earnings and heavy promotional spending. ^[5]
Aggressive investment and leverage, including a new $750 million bond and a high‑growth credit book. ^[6]
Persistent long‑term optimism from Wall Street and institutional investors, despite the pullback. ^[7]

Let’s walk through the most important news, forecasts, and analyses since November 21 – and what they may mean for 2026.

Price Action Since November 21, 2025

On November 20, MercadoLibre stock dropped sharply after investors digested its Q3 numbers, closing around $1,899.75 (‑8.5% on the day). ^[8]

From November 21 onward:

Nov 21: shares rebounded to a $1,951.78 close. ^[9]
Nov 24–28: the stock traded mostly above $2,000 and closed around $2,071.78 on Nov 28, as early‑stage Black Friday and Cyber promotions drove optimism. ^[10]
Dec 9: price hovered near $2,074, about 20% below the 2025 peak near $2,645. TechStock²+1
Dec 10: shares slid 5% to $1,970.73 on heavy volume, extending a short‑term downtrend. TechStock²+1

Technically, several third‑party models now flag MELI as a short‑term “sell candidate”, projecting more downside if the current trend persists. TechStock²+1

Fundamentally, the recent weakness ties back to Q3 results and concerns that MercadoLibre is spending aggressively to defend its moat.

Q3 2025: Hypergrowth Meets Margin Compression

MercadoLibre reported Q3 2025 results on October 29, but the full market reaction has played out through November and early December. Key highlights: ^[11]

Net revenue:$7.41 billion, up ~39–40% year over year, marking the 27th consecutive quarter of 30%+ revenue growth.
Operating income: around $724 million, up year over year but slightly below some analyst expectations.
Net income: about $421 million, modest growth vs. last year.
EPS: roughly $8.32, missing consensus estimates near the high‑$9 range. ^[12]

Why the earnings disappointment despite strong top‑line growth?

Shipping and promotions. MercadoLibre lowered its free‑shipping threshold in Brazil earlier in 2025 and leaned into subsidies and promotions, which boosted volumes but squeezed margins. ^[13]
Credit and fintech expansion. Its loan portfolio and card‑driven fintech activity are surging, but so is the provision for doubtful accounts, weighing on profitability. ^[14]

A Morningstar stock analyst note published on November 21 argues that these “prudent investments” are reinforcing MercadoLibre’s network advantage and long‑term demand, even as they pressure margins in the near term. ^[15]

In other words: Q3 confirmed structural growth is intact, but also made clear that management is prioritizing share gains over short‑term margins.

Black Friday, Coupons and an Intensifying E‑Commerce Battle

A central storyline since late November is competition in Brazil and Mexico, especially against:

Amazon
Fast‑growing Chinese platforms like Shein, Shopee, and Temu. ^[16]

To defend its leadership, MercadoLibre has gone on offense:

For Black Friday, the company invested almost $19 million in coupons, its largest ever spend on the event, according to Bloomberg and PYMNTS. ^[17]
Earlier this year, it cut the minimum order value for free shipping in Brazil, contributing to a 34% year‑over‑year jump in items sold in June but adding cost. ^[18]

PYMNTS describes these moves as a response to “heightened competition” from global rivals in Latin America’s fast‑growing e‑commerce market. ^[19]

The takeaway for investors:

These tactics strengthen MercadoLibre’s moat and buyer frequency.
But they also exacerbate the margin squeeze that already worried the market after Q3.

Fintech Growth and a Swelling Credit Book: Opportunity vs. Risk

MercadoLibre’s fintech arm, Mercado Pago, has arguably become as important as the core marketplace:

Payments, wallets and credit products have turned MELI into a leading digital finance platform across much of Latin America. ^[20]

However, recent analysis has focused on credit risk:

Zacks notes that MELI’s credit portfolio is surging, with card‑driven lending now a larger share of the book. That supports user engagement but raises concerns about asset quality and margin pressure. ^[21]
In the first nine months of 2025, revenue grew about 37% year over year, but the provision for doubtful accounts rose roughly 58%, according to a December 10 Motley Fool article on what to watch in 2026. ^[22]

Zacks’ mid‑December research pieces underline the tension: ^[23]

Six‑month share performance: about ‑15.6%, significantly underperforming peers.
Valuation: forward price‑to‑sales around 2.9×, above the industry average ~2.1×, earning a “Value Score” of C.
Q4 2025 EPS estimate:$11.85, implying a small year‑over‑year decline (~6%) as credit costs and investments bite.

Zacks currently rates the stock Rank #3 (Hold) – effectively “monitor the story” rather than aggressively buy or sell.

New Capital Structure: $750 Million of 2033 Senior Notes

On December 4, 2025, MercadoLibre announced it had successfully issued $750 million of senior unsecured notes due 2033 at a 4.9% coupon. ^[24]

Key details:

Rating:BBB‑ from both S&P and Fitch – investment‑grade.
Demand: the deal was 3.6x oversubscribed, with participation from more than 150 institutional investors.
Use of proceeds: “general corporate purposes” and further strengthening liquidity.

Management framed the transaction as a way to:

Optimize funding costs following its upgrade to investment‑grade status; and
Maintain flexibility to fund logistics, technology, and credit growth without relying solely on equity or retained earnings. ^[25]

From an equity holder’s standpoint, the deal:

Slightly increases leverage, but
Reinforces the idea that credit markets have confidence in MELI’s cash‑flow generation and long‑term strategy.

Automation Push: Humanoid Robots in the Warehouse

On December 10, MercadoLibre unveiled a novel logistics initiative: a commercial agreement with Agility Robotics to deploy Digit, a humanoid robot, in its San Antonio (Texas) facility. ^[26]

Highlights from the announcement:

Digit will initially handle repetitive, physically demanding tasks associated with order fulfillment.
The partnership aims to improve ergonomics and safety, close labor gaps, and increase productivity.
The companies plan to explore expansion to warehouses in Latin America once the U.S. deployment is proven.

Simply Wall St and other commentary have already started asking whether these humanoid robots could reshape MELI’s margin and operating leverage story over time, especially as labor markets tighten and service expectations keep rising. ^[27]

Near‑term, the project is small relative to MELI’s scale, but symbolically it reinforces the company’s identity as a tech‑driven logistics leader, not just an online marketplace.

Wall Street’s Latest Forecasts and Ratings

Despite the recent drawdown, sell‑side and independent analysts remain broadly bullish on MELI.

Consensus Ratings and Price Targets

Several datasets tell a consistent story:

Yahoo Finance / MarketBeat / Zacks:
- Around 20 brokerage firms currently cover MELI.
- The average brokerage recommendation (ABR) sits near 1.4 on a 1–5 scale, between “Strong Buy” and “Buy”. ^[28]
- One recent Zacks summary notes 15 Strong Buys, 1 Buy, and a handful of Holds, with no mainstream “Sell” ratings. ^[29]
Price targets:
- Average 12‑month target: roughly $2,850–2,875 per share. ^[30]
- Range: from the low $2,300s up to about $3,500. ^[31]
- Implied upside from ~$1,970 is in the 30–45% range, depending on the source and exact price. ^[32]

Recent Target Changes

Analysts have trimmed targets post‑Q3, but generally kept positive ratings: ^[33]

Cantor Fitzgerald: lowered target from $2,900 to $2,750, maintained Overweight.
Benchmark: cut from $2,875 to $2,780, kept Buy.
Citi: reduced from $2,700 to $2,500, still Buy.
BTIG: reiterated Buy with a $2,750 target on December 4.
Wedbush & others: targets clustered around $2,700–2,900 with Outperform / Overweight ratings.

The message: near‑term earnings risk is acknowledged, but the long‑term thesis is mostly intact.

Valuation Checks

A few deeper‑dive pieces since November 21 focus specifically on valuation:

Simply Wall St estimates a fair value near $2,900 per share using a discounted cash‑flow model, implying roughly 25–30% undervaluation after the recent pullback. ^[34]
A valuation‑check article on NasdaqGS:MELI (highlighted on Yahoo Finance) similarly notes a roughly 30.8% discount to intrinsic value based on consensus forecasts and cash‑flow projections. ^[35]

Of course, all valuation models depend heavily on assumptions about growth durability and future margins – exactly the two areas now under scrutiny.

What Long‑Term Bulls Are Saying

Beyond the numbers, commentary from Morningstar, Motley Fool, and others since November 21 shares several recurring bullish themes:

Network effects and ecosystem depth. MELI’s combination of marketplace, payments, credit, logistics, advertising and B2B offerings is seen as increasingly hard to replicate, particularly at scale across 18 countries. ^[36]
Structural tailwinds. Latin America’s e‑commerce and digital payments penetration is still well below that of the U.S., leaving a long runway for growth. One December piece argues MercadoLibre could plausibly reach a $500 billion market cap within a decade if it continues compounding at high rates. ^[37]
Capital allocation and leadership. Morningstar has reiterated an “Exemplary” capital allocation view even after announcing that founder Marcos Galperin will become Executive Chairman while Ariel Szarfsztejn takes over as CEO on January 1, 2026, highlighting continuity rather than upheaval. ^[38]
Track record. Over the last decade, MercadoLibre has delivered roughly 30%+ annualized returns, and lifetime gains of more than 7,000%, making it one of the best‑performing large‑cap stocks globally. ^[39]

Institutions appear to agree:

D1 Capital Partners opened a new $301 million position in MELI in Q3, making it about 3.5% of its reported U.S. equity portfolio. ^[40]
Other filings show increased stakes from multiple funds, and one recent Simply Wall St piece notes that institutional investors control roughly 80% of the share base. ^[41]

Key Risks to Watch in 2026

Recent articles and analyst notes highlight several risks investors should monitor closely:

Credit quality and the economic cycle
- Rapid credit growth, especially in cards and unsecured lending, makes MELI more sensitive to defaults and provisioning spikes. ^[42]
- A downturn in Brazil, Mexico, or Argentina could force MercadoLibre to tighten underwriting or accept lower profitability.
Persistent margin pressure
- Coupon campaigns, free‑shipping subsidies and logistics investments are powerful tools for growth but can dilute earnings if not matched with efficiency gains. ^[43]
Competition from Amazon and low‑cost Asian platforms
- Amazon is ramping logistics and payment partnerships in Brazil and Mexico; Shein, Shopee and Temu are flooding the region with low‑priced goods and marketing. ^[44]
Currency and political risk
- Operating in emerging markets exposes MELI to FX swings, inflation and regulatory uncertainty, which can distort reported results even when underlying demand is strong. ^[45]
Execution on automation and capital deployment
- The $750 million bond and humanoid robot rollout should support growth and efficiency – but they also increase execution risk and future expectations around returns on invested capital. ^[46]
Leadership transition
- While the Galperin–Szarfsztejn transition appears orderly, any misstep in strategic focus or communication could unsettle investors watching from the sidelines. ^[47]

Bottom Line: Is MercadoLibre Stock a Buy After November 21?

Putting all of this together:

Business momentum remains very strong. Revenue growth near 40%, a broad fintech ecosystem, and heavy investment in logistics and technology support a long runway. ^[48]
Short‑term profitability is under pressure. Margins have compressed due to promotions, shipping subsidies and credit provisions – exactly what triggered the post‑earnings sell‑off and the latest 5% drop. ^[49]
Valuation is no longer stretched, but still not “cheap.” At around 48× trailing earnings and roughly 3–4× sales, MELI trades at a premium to peers, though several DCF and analyst models suggest 20–40% upside from current levels if growth and margins evolve as expected. ^[50]
Market sentiment is mixed but constructive. Price targets have come down, yet most brokers maintain Buy or Strong Buy ratings and institutions continue to accumulate shares. ^[51]

For long‑term, risk‑tolerant investors, the post‑November pullback may look like a classic “great company, cyclical worry” setup:

If management can prove that shipping subsidies, coupon spending, credit growth and robotics investments translate into sustainable share gains and operating leverage, today’s prices may end up looking attractive a few years from now.
If credit losses spike or competitive pressure forces an endless cycle of costly promotions, the multiple could compress further even if revenue remains strong.