MercadoLibre, Inc. (NASDAQ: MELI) ended Wednesday’s session sharply lower, closing at $1,970.73, down 5.0% from Tuesday’s close of $2,074.48. The stock traded in a wide intraday range between $1,957.00 and $2,037.50, with volume of about 1.17 million shares, above its recent average. [1]
In extended hours, the last reported after-hours trade hovered near $1,970, essentially flat versus the official close, setting the stage for a closely watched open on Thursday, December 11, 2025. [2]
At the same time, MercadoLibre remains a high‑conviction growth story in Latin American e‑commerce and fintech, but the latest slide highlights growing investor unease around margin pressure, an expanding credit book, fresh debt issuance, and near‑term technical weakness.
Below is a detailed look at what happened after the bell on December 10 and what to watch before the next trading session begins.
How MercadoLibre Stock Traded on December 10, 2025
Market data from Investing.com show: [3]
- Close: $1,970.73
- Change on the day: −5.0%
- Intraday range: $1,957.00 – $2,037.50
- Previous close (Dec 9): $2,074.48
- 52‑week range: $1,646.00 – $2,645.22
- Average daily volume: ~1.17 million shares
The move extends a volatile stretch for MELI. The stock is now: [4]
- Roughly 5–6% lower than it was at the start of December
- Well below its 52‑week high above $2,640
- Still comfortably above its 52‑week low near $1,646
Earlier in the day, pre‑market quotes around $2,032 already pointed to a weaker open versus Tuesday’s close, and regular‑session selling pressure pushed the shares toward the lower end of their recent trading range. [5]
Technical services now classify MELI’s near‑term setup as “Strong Sell” based on moving averages and trend indicators, even as the longer‑term fundamental story remains positive. [6]
The Story Behind the Selloff: Four Key Drivers
There was no new earnings release on December 10, but several fundamental and technical narratives converged during the session. Here are the main factors investors were digesting.
1. Credit growth vs. rising risk in Mercado Pago
A fresh Zacks/Nasdaq analysis published on December 10 zeroed in on MercadoLibre’s rapidly expanding credit portfolio. [7]
Key points from that piece and recent filings:
- MELI’s credit book has grown to around $11 billion, up roughly 83% year over year in Q3 2025. [8]
- Net interest margin after loan losses is about 21%, but:
- Early delinquencies (~1–89 days past due) sit near 6.8%.
- Over‑90‑day delinquencies are around 17.6% of the portfolio. [9]
- The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Q4 2025 EPS is $11.85, implying a ~6% year‑over‑year decline, even though fintech revenue is projected to jump about 45% to $3.63 billion. [10]
The takeaway from that research note:
- The fintech and credit engine is powering revenue growth, but
- Investors face higher earnings volatility as credit risk, funding costs and loan‑loss provisions rise.
With the stock already under pressure since November, renewed attention on these credit metrics likely amplified Wednesday’s selling.
2. Fresh $750 million bond deal and leverage optics
On December 9, MercadoLibre closed a $750 million offering of 4.900% notes due 2033, issued under its existing shelf registration. [11]
A few important details from recent coverage: [12]
- The deal was oversubscribed more than 3.5x, signaling strong institutional demand.
- It’s the company’s first major bond sale since earning an investment‑grade rating, with Fitch rating the new senior notes at ‘BBB-’ and assigning a stable outlook.
- Management indicated proceeds are intended to bolster liquidity and fund general corporate purposes, including continued investment in logistics, credit and technology.
From a credit perspective, this is a vote of confidence. From an equity perspective, some traders worry that:
- A larger debt load combined with a fast‑growing credit book could pressure earnings and flexibility if Latin American macro conditions weaken.
- The bond yield around 4.9% sets a real, recurring cost of capital that must be covered by future cash flows.
The December 8 German‑language analysis “MercadoLibre: A Tale of Robust Fundamentals and Near‑Term Caution” captured this tension clearly: robust growth, but compressed margins and a weakening short‑term technical posture, with the new bond issue a central part of the story. [13]
3. Humanoid robots in the warehouse: bold move, mixed reaction
On the operations side, MercadoLibre and Agility Robotics announced a commercial agreement on December 10 to deploy Digit humanoid robots in a Texas fulfillment center, with the intention to expand to other U.S. and Latin American warehouses. [14]
According to the companies:
- Digit will handle repetitive and physically demanding tasks, such as moving totes and materials.
- The initiative is framed as worker‑centric, aiming to improve ergonomics and safety rather than replace human labor. [15]
Intraday commentary, however, was divided:
- An AI‑driven note from AInvest highlighted that MELI slumped about 3.7% intraday as traders digested the robotics announcement, with some concerned about execution risk, capex and potential disruption to logistics operations. [16]
- The same piece emphasized that short‑term technical indicators had turned bearish, reinforcing the downside momentum. [17]
In short, the robotics partnership underscores MercadoLibre’s long‑term automation ambitions, but it may also have contributed to near‑term volatility as markets reassessed the risk/reward of another big investment initiative.
4. A cautious technical backdrop and November’s earnings overhang
The December 10 decline did not occur in a vacuum. Since the Q3 2025 earnings release on October 29, the stock has struggled to find a convincing uptrend. [18]
Key Q3 numbers:
- Revenue: ~$7.41 billion, up about 39–40% year over year, and ahead of consensus near $7.19 billion.
- EPS: $8.32, missing expectations around $9.3–$9.9.
- Operating margin: just under 10%, down from prior periods as the company spends heavily on logistics, credit and new growth initiatives.
- Fintech revenue: up roughly 49%, with total payment volume reaching $71.2 billion.
- GMV: about $16.5 billion, up 28% year over year. [19]
- Q3 2025 marked the 27th consecutive quarter of 30%+ year‑over‑year revenue growth. [20]
Analysts have repeatedly described this as a “strong growth, weaker margins” quarter, and several subsequent pieces have warned that profitability will be under scrutiny into 2026. [21]
Wednesday’s 5% slide therefore looks less like a single‑headline panic and more like a continuation of a months‑long tug‑of‑war between:
- Extremely strong top‑line and ecosystem growth, and
- Mounting concerns over credit risk, leverage and margin compression.
What Wall Street Is Saying After the Drop
Despite the selloff, Wall Street’s view of MELI remains broadly constructive.
Consensus ratings and price targets
Across several data providers, the message is consistent:
- Investing.com: average 12‑month price target around $2,847, implying roughly 44–45% upside from the current ~$1,970 level; overall rating “Strong Buy” from 23 analysts, with no “Sell” recommendations. [22]
- MarketBeat: 1 “Strong Buy”, 16 “Buy”, 3 “Hold”; average target $2,848.82 and an overall “Moderate Buy” rating. [23]
- StockAnalysis: 18‑analyst coverage with a consensus “Strong Buy” rating and an average target near $2,874, implying upside of roughly 46% from the December 10 close. [24]
In other words, the stock has dropped, but the Street has not abandoned the long‑term thesis.
Valuation checks: expensive or undervalued?
Recent fundamental deep‑dives show a nuanced picture:
- A December 10 Simply Wall St piece uses a two‑stage discounted cash flow (DCF) model to estimate fair value around $2,922 per share, suggesting MELI is about 29% undervalued on that metric. [25]
- The same analysis notes that MELI trades at roughly 50.6× earnings, far above the multiline retail industry average near 19.9×, and above its own “fair” PE estimate of 34.1×—indicating a growth premium that still looks rich on a pure earnings multiple basis. [26]
- A December 8 Northwise “MELI Stock Forecast” report frames MercadoLibre as the “economic backbone” of Latin America’s digital economy, arguing that the market still undervalues the combined power of its commerce, logistics, payments and credit layers. [27]
Put bluntly: valuation is all about your time horizon.
- Short‑term traders see a richly valued stock with compressing margins and rising risk.
- Long‑term investors see a platform with decades of growth runway whose current multiple may prove reasonable if the company continues to compound revenue at 25–30% and gradually rebuilds margins.
Key Things to Watch Before the Market Opens on December 11, 2025
Heading into Thursday’s U.S. session, here are the main questions sophisticated investors and traders will be asking.
1. Does the $1,950–$2,000 support zone hold?
Wednesday’s low near $1,957 brings MELI close to the lower end of its recent range but still above the late‑November low around $1,897. [28]
Market technicians will be watching:
- Support: roughly $1,950 (recent intraday low cluster and near the lower end of current Bollinger Bands, per intraday analyses). [29]
- Resistance: the $2,050–$2,100 band, which lines up with the 50‑day moving average cited around $2,130 in technical commentary. [30]
A decisive move below $1,950 could reopen the path toward the 52‑week low near $1,646, while a rebound above $2,050 would signal that dip‑buyers are stepping in again. [31]
2. Pre‑market tone: does selling pressure continue or stabilize?
As of the last update, after‑hours trading was relatively calm, with MELI quoted around $1,970, little changed from the close. [32]
Before the opening bell, investors will be monitoring:
- Whether pre‑market volume spikes on new institutional flows.
- Any follow‑up commentary from analysts or the company after Wednesday’s Nasdaq conference appearance, where management is expected to address credit growth, artificial intelligence initiatives and the balance between growth and profitability. [33]
A quiet pre‑market would hint that the worst of the reaction may be behind the stock—for now.
3. Any new read‑throughs from the Fed and macro backdrop?
U.S. indices finished December 10 higher, with the S&P 500 up about 0.7% and the Nasdaq roughly 0.3%, while the VIX volatility index fell below 16—consistent with a risk‑on response to the Federal Reserve’s latest policy decision. [34]
For MELI, the macro read‑through is mixed:
- Rate cuts and lower global yields benefit high‑growth, long‑duration assets like MercadoLibre by reducing discount rates and improving financing conditions.
- But Latin American currencies, local inflation and consumer health remain key variables. If investors begin to worry about regional slowdowns or FX volatility, high‑beta names like MELI can still underperform even in an overall supportive global backdrop.
Traders will therefore watch global risk sentiment and EM‑linked assets (for example, Brazilian and Mexican equities and FX) as indirect barometers for MercadoLibre’s risk premium.
4. Follow‑through from the bond market
The new 4.900% 2033 notes have only just begun trading. Early indications of how those bonds are priced in secondary markets will tell investors: [35]
- Whether the credit market agrees with the equity market’s caution, or
- Whether credit investors remain relatively relaxed, treating MELI as a stable investment‑grade issuer with a strong growth profile.
If the bonds trade at or above par with tightening spreads, it would imply that the sharp equity move is more about sentiment and positioning than fundamental solvency or liquidity concerns.
5. Signals from the robotics and AI narrative
The Agility Robotics partnership and broader AI/logistics automation story will likely remain in focus for days, not hours. [36]
Ahead of the open, investors will look for:
- Clarifications on capital intensity and the expected payback period for deploying humanoid robots at scale.
- Any management commentary—especially at the Nasdaq event—on how AI and robotics are integrated into MELI’s long‑term margin roadmap, rather than just being an incremental cost center. [37]
Clarity here could help investors decide whether to treat the robotics news as a temporary volatility catalyst or as a structural shift in cost and risk.
6. Updated views on credit quality and Q4 guidance
Given how prominently the credit book features in recent research, investors will be hypersensitive to any new datapoints on: [38]
- Non‑performing loan ratios and write‑offs in Brazil, Mexico and Argentina
- The growth mix between merchant lending, consumer installment plans and card portfolios
- Whether Q4 guidance (implicit or explicit) suggests that earnings growth can re‑accelerate in 2026 once the current investment cycle matures
Any hint that asset quality is worsening faster than expected could justify the recent compression in MELI’s valuation multiple. Conversely, evidence of disciplined underwriting would reinforce the long‑term bullish thesis.
Long‑Term Picture: Structural Winner With Near‑Term Friction
Zooming out from the day‑to‑day volatility, the core elements of the MercadoLibre story remain intact:
- It is still the dominant digital commerce and fintech platform in Latin America, operating a tightly integrated stack of marketplace, logistics (Mercado Envios), payments and financial services (Mercado Pago), credit, and advertising. [39]
- Q3 2025 marked the 27th consecutive quarter of 30%+ revenue growth—an extremely rare run‑rate at MELI’s current scale. [40]
- Third‑party forecasts still call for high‑30s revenue growth in 2025 and mid‑20s in 2026, suggesting that the platform has not yet matured. [41]
But investors are increasingly focused on the cost of that growth:
- Margins have come under pressure as MELI leans into free shipping, logistics capex, and credit expansion. [42]
- The credit portfolio and bond issuance introduce meaningful balance‑sheet leverage that will amplify both upside and downside in future cycles. [43]
- Technically, the stock has broken down from prior highs and is now trading well below its 200‑day moving average, leaving short‑term charts looking decidedly cautious, even while fundamentals remain strong. [44]
In practical terms:
- Growth‑oriented, long‑horizon investors may view the current pullback as part of a standard boom‑and‑consolidation cycle for a platform business still in expansion mode.
- Short‑term traders and risk‑averse holders will likely demand clearer signs that margins are stabilizing, credit risk is controlled, and leverage is not creeping beyond comfort before committing fresh capital.
Bottom Line
After the bell on December 10, 2025, MercadoLibre sits at a crossroads:
- The stock has fallen 5% in a single session and more than that from recent highs, as markets digest a mix of credit‑risk worries, new debt, ambitious automation projects and a technically weak chart. [45]
- Yet consensus analyst targets still cluster roughly 40–45% above the current share price, and multiple fundamental models—including DCF‑based work—continue to argue that MELI is undervalued relative to its long‑term cash‑flow potential. [46]
Before Thursday’s open, the market will be focused on three core questions:
- Is the 5% drop a normal bout of volatility in a high‑growth compounder, or the start of a deeper re‑rating?
- Can management convince investors—at the Nasdaq conference and beyond—that credit expansion, automation and fresh leverage are tools for durable value creation, not just sources of risk? [47]
- Will the next few quarters show a path back toward healthier margins while sustaining mid‑30s to high‑20s revenue growth? [48]
References
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