MercadoLibre (MELI) Stock Today: Latest News, Q3 2025 Results, Analyst Forecasts and Outlook as of December 9, 2025

MercadoLibre, Inc. (NASDAQ: MELI), Latin America’s leading e‑commerce and fintech platform, is ending 2025 in a curious position: business momentum remains extremely strong, but the stock has cooled after hitting record highs in June.

As of December 9, 2025, MercadoLibre’s share price trades around $2,060–2,080 per share, implying a market capitalization of roughly $105 billion and a trailing P/E ratio just over 50x. ^[1] The stock is up around 20%+ year to date, but sits roughly 18–20% below its 2025 peak near $2,645. ^[2]

At the same time, MercadoLibre has:

Posted 27 consecutive quarters of revenue growth above 30% year over year
Expanded its fast‑growing credit portfolio and fintech franchise
Issued $750 million in new investment‑grade bonds
Announced a CEO transition effective January 1, 2026 ^[3]

Here’s a deep dive into all the key news, forecasts and analyses that matter for MercadoLibre stock as of December 9, 2025.

MercadoLibre stock today: price, valuation and recent performance

Share price (Dec 9, 2025): about $2,074 intraday; finance data shows last close near $2,061. ^[4]
Market cap: roughly $105–105.9 billion. ^[5]
52‑week range:$1,646 – $2,645. ^[6]
Valuation:
- Trailing P/E: ~50–51x earnings
- Forward P/E: about 41x
- Price‑to‑sales (ttm): roughly 3x, above peers in internet retail ^[7]
Volatility & beta: Beta around 1.4, meaning MELI tends to be more volatile than the broader U.S. market. ^[8]

In the last six months, the stock has fallen roughly 16%, even as the Zacks Internet‑Commerce industry and broader Retail‑Wholesale sector posted mid‑single digit gains. ^[9] That pullback reflects concerns over:

Margin compression from aggressive investments
Fast‑growing credit exposure
Premium valuation versus global peers like Amazon

Yet longer‑term performance remains stellar: one recent analysis notes MercadoLibre stock is up 7,400% since its 2007 IPO, massively outpacing the S&P 500. ^[10]

Q3 2025: explosive growth, but profits under pressure

MercadoLibre’s Q3 2025 results, reported on October 29, 2025, show why the business still excites growth investors. ^[11]

Top‑line momentum

According to the company’s investor relations releases:

Net revenue:$7.4 billion, up 39% year over year
27th consecutive quarter with >30% YoY revenue growth
Commerce revenue:$4.2 billion, +33% YoY
Fintech revenue (Mercado Pago):$3.2 billion, +49% YoY ^[12]

Operational highlights:

Gross merchandise volume (GMV):$16.5 billion, +28% YoY in USD
Items sold:635 million, +39% YoY
Unique buyers: almost 77 million, +26% YoY
Total payment volume (TPV):$71 billion, +41% YoY in USD
Fintech monthly active users:72 million, +29% YoY ^[13]

MercadoLibre continues to show especially strong momentum in Brazil and Mexico:

Brazil: items sold +42% YoY; FX‑neutral GMV +34% YoY
Mexico: items sold +42% YoY; FX‑neutral GMV +34% YoY
Argentina: items sold +34% YoY; FX‑neutral GMV +44% YoY ^[14]

Profitability and EPS miss

Despite booming revenue, Q3 profitability disappointed some investors:

Operating income:$724 million, up 30% YoY
Operating margin:9.8%, down from 10.3% a year earlier ^[15]
Net income:$421 million, net margin 5.7%, down from 7.5% last year ^[16]
EPS:$8.32, up ~6% YoY, but missed consensus estimates around $9.9 per share. ^[17]

Research commentary from MarketBeat and Zacks highlighted that the EPS miss and shrinking margins — despite very strong revenue growth — contributed to the stock’s pullback from its summer highs. ^[18]

Heavy investment cycle: free shipping, logistics and advertising

MercadoLibre is very openly in an investment phase, particularly in:

Lowering free‑shipping thresholds in Brazil
Expanding its fulfillment center network
Ramping up marketing and first‑party (1P) retail
Scaling its credit‑card and broader fintech offerings

In Q2 2025, the company already flagged these themes when it reported: ^[19]

Net revenue:$6.8 billion, +34% YoY
Operating income:$825 million, operating margin 12.2% (higher than Q3’s 9.8%)
Commerce revenue growth driven by more free shipping in Brazil and faster growth in Mexico
Mercado Pago credit portfolio up 91% YoY to $9.3 billion

In Q3, the investment push intensified: ^[20]

Fulfillment capacity increased 41% YoY
Fast deliveries (same/next day) reached 80% of shipments within 48 hours
Unit shipping costs fell in Brazil and Mexico due to scale
Advertising revenue grew 56% in USD, 63% FX‑neutral, boosted by partnerships with Roku and HBO

A widely circulated Zacks/Finviz analysis titled “MELI Dips 16% in 6 Months: Should Investors Hold or Fold?” notes that these investments have: ^[21]

Increased revenue and market share
But compressed margins and slowed EPS growth
Left the stock trading at hefty multiples (forward P/E in the mid‑30s vs mid‑20s for the broader retail/commerce space)

In other words, MercadoLibre is deliberately trading some near‑term profitability for volume, share and ecosystem depth — a classic high‑growth platform play, but one that requires investor patience.

Credit expansion: growth engine and key risk

The most debated piece of MercadoLibre’s story in late 2025 is its rapidly expanding credit business inside Mercado Pago.

From the company’s Q3 release: ^[22]

Credit portfolio:$11.0 billion, up 83% YoY
Credit card book:$4.8 billion, +104% YoY, now 47% of the credit book
Assets under management:$15.1 billion, +89% YoY
72 million fintech MAUs, as Mercado Pago pushes to become Latin America’s “largest digital bank”

A Zacks analysis focusing on credit risk highlights several points: ^[23]

MercadoLibre originated about $10.3 billion in credit in Q3, with credit cards making up around 44% of total originations.
Early‑stage delinquencies (15–90 day NPL) remained at 6.8%, flat sequentially, suggesting asset quality is stable for now.
Net interest margin after losses (NIMAL) compressed to 21% from 23% in Q2, indicating higher funding costs and/or more conservative pricing.

Critics worry that:

The credit book is growing faster than the rest of the business.
Macroeconomic conditions in key markets are still challenging:
- Brazil’s policy rate remains very high at 15%, with the central bank signaling a prolonged hold. ^[24]
- Mexico’s inflation ticked up to 3.8% in November, even after the central bank cut rates to 7.25%, and policymakers still see upside inflation risks. ^[25]

Supporters counter that:

Asset quality metrics are stable
MercadoLibre has deep user data, strong underwriting models and a diversified payments base
The credit business is core to driving principality — making Mercado Pago users rely on its app as their primary financial tool ^[26]

Either way, MercadoLibre’s credit expansion is now one of the central drivers of both upside and risk in the MELI stock story.

Investment‑grade status and a new $750 million bond

On December 4, 2025, MercadoLibre announced the successful issuance of $750 million of 4.900% senior unsecured notes due January 2033, its first bond deal since achieving investment‑grade status. ^[27]

Key details from the Business Wire release:

The notes are rated BBB‑ by both S&P and Fitch.
The deal was 3.6x oversubscribed, with demand from more than 150 institutional investors.
Proceeds are for general corporate purposes and to “further strengthen liquidity.” ^[28]

Earlier in 2025, S&P upgraded MercadoLibre to investment grade (BBB‑), following a prior upgrade from Fitch. ^[29]

This access to cheaper, long‑term funding:

Gives MercadoLibre a wider toolkit to finance logistics infrastructure, technology, and credit growth
Signals that major debt investors see the company as a relatively solid credit despite macro and portfolio risks

MarketBeat data shows a debt‑to‑equity ratio around 0.55, suggesting leverage remains moderate for a platform of this scale. ^[30]

Leadership transition: Marcos Galperin to Executive Chairman

Beyond the numbers, governance is getting attention.

In May 2025, MercadoLibre announced that founder and long‑time CEO Marcos Galperin will become Executive Chairman, while Ariel Szarfsztejn will take over as CEO on January 1, 2026. ^[31]

The Q2 2025 release frames the move as a planned and orderly transition designed to:

Preserve strategic continuity
Keep Galperin deeply involved at the board and ecosystem level
Elevate a senior internal leader (Szarfsztejn) with extensive experience inside the business

Coverage from outlets like Bloomberg has focused on Galperin’s evolution from operator‑CEO to high‑level strategist at a time when MercadoLibre is one of Latin America’s most valuable companies. ^[32]

For investors, the key takeaway is that there’s no sign of a radical strategic pivot — more of a hand‑off at the top while the growth playbook continues.

Brand, scale and recognition: TIME100 and mega‑investments in Brazil & Mexico

In June 2025, MercadoLibre was named one of the TIME100 Most Influential Companies of 2025, and notably the only Latin American company on the list. TIME recognized it as a “dominant retailer” in the Titan category, underscoring its regional power. ^[33]

The company’s own disclosures highlight:

Over 100 million unique e‑commerce buyers
Mercado Pago processing nearly $200 billion in payments in 2024
Over 60 million monthly active fintech users at that time
Plans to grow its workforce to over 112,000 employees across the region by the end of 2025 ^[34]

On the capex side, Reuters reports that MercadoLibre plans to invest:

About 34 billion reais (~$5.8 billion) in Brazil in 2025, a nearly 48% increase versus 2024, aimed at logistics, technology and jobs (around 14,000 new positions). ^[35]
Around $3.4 billion in Mexico, focused on tech products and financial services, adding about 10,000 employees there. ^[36]

These huge commitments reinforce that Brazil and Mexico remain the engine of MercadoLibre’s growth — and justify much of the company’s aggressive reinvestment.

Wall Street’s view: bullish long term, cautious near term

Consensus targets and ratings

Multiple data providers paint a similar picture: strongly positive long‑term sentiment with some short‑term caution.

StockAnalysis aggregates 18 analysts covering MELI and shows: ^[37]

Consensus rating: “Strong Buy”
Average 12‑month price target:$2,874
Target range: $2,650 – $3,500
Implied upside: about 38.6% from recent prices

It also compiles analyst forecasts that call for:

2025 revenue:$29.15 billion, up 40% from 2024’s $20.78 billion
2026 revenue:$37.38 billion, another 28% increase
2025 EPS:$42.35, up 12% from 2024
2026 EPS:$62.50, a 48% jump vs 2025 ^[38]

GuruFocus shows similar optimism from a slightly larger sample: ^[39]

Average 1‑year target (25 analysts): $2,857.44
High / low: $3,500 / $2,050
Implied upside vs ~ $2,150 price used in that note: ~33%
Average brokerage recommendation score: 1.8, classified as “Outperform”
GuruFocus’s own fair‑value estimate (“GF Value”) for one year out: about $3,638, implying ~69% upside (though this is model‑based, not a Wall Street consensus).

MarketBeat notes that, across its coverage universe: ^[40]

1 analyst rates MELI Strong Buy
16 rate it Buy
3 rate it Hold
Consensus label: “Moderate Buy”
Average price target: $2,848.82

Zacks: ABR bullish, rank cautious

Zacks has released two widely shared pieces about MELI in early December: ^[41]

An article highlighting an Average Brokerage Recommendation (ABR) of 1.42 (on a 1–5 scale), between Strong Buy and Buy, based on 16 brokerage recommendations (15 Strong Buy, 1 Buy).
A more cautious report that focuses on earnings estimate revisions and credit risk:
- Q4 2025 EPS consensus: about $11.85, which has been cut by nearly 19% over the last month.
- Fintech revenue for Q4: expected around $3.63 billion, up ~45% YoY.
- Zacks Rank: #4 (Sell), reflecting negative revisions despite strong top‑line growth.

Zacks stresses that ABR alone can be misleadingly bullish and that its quantitative rank gives more weight to fresh estimate cuts and near‑term earnings risk.

Valuation debates: expensive or still cheap?

Valuation commentary is split:

Simply Wall St argues that while a discounted cash flow (DCF) model suggests MercadoLibre might be ~27% undervalued, the stock’s P/E ratio ~51.7x is well above both its sector (~34.9x “fair”) and industry (~20x) averages. ^[42]
The Zacks/Finviz note points out a forward P/E around 35x and a price‑to‑sales ratio around 3x, high vs many retail peers but arguably justified by MELI’s 30–40% revenue growth and ecosystem moat. ^[43]

Long‑term oriented commentary, especially from The Motley Fool, tends to lean heavily bullish. Recent pieces syndicated via Sharewise carry headlines like: ^[44]

“This Latin American E‑Commerce Stock Could Be Worth $500 Billion in 10 Years”
“Up 7,400% All Time, Is It Too Late to Buy MercadoLibre Stock?”
“3 Top Stocks to Buy in December” (with MELI highlighted as the #1 idea)

These articles emphasize:

Massive addressable markets in Latin American e‑commerce and fintech
MercadoLibre’s double‑engine (commerce + fintech) platform
Underperformance vs U.S. megacap tech in recent years, leaving room for catch‑up

Big money moves: D1 Capital, Winton Group and other funds

Institutional activity in late 2025 has been supportive:

D1 Capital Partners opened a new $301 million position in Q3 2025, buying 128,803 shares, according to a November 14 SEC filing summarized by Nasdaq. The stake accounts for about 3.5% of D1’s reported U.S. equity portfolio. ^[45]
A recent MarketBeat note reports that WINTON GROUP Ltd increased its stake by 76.3%, to 1,409 shares worth about $3.68 million, while other institutions such as Ossiam, Bank of Nova Scotia and the California Public Employees Retirement System also added. Overall, roughly 87.6% of MELI’s float is held by institutions. ^[46]

Fund‑flow data like this doesn’t guarantee future returns, but it suggests that sophisticated investors continue to view the recent pullback as an opportunity rather than a structural break in the story.

Short‑term catalysts: El Buen Fin, Fed cuts and Q4 2025 earnings

El Buen Fin boost

On December 2, StockStory reported that MercadoLibre shares jumped 4.1% intraday after the company announced record sales volumes during Mexico’s huge shopping event El Buen Fin: ^[47]

Over 3,000 purchases per minute at peak
Half of all orders delivered in less than 24 hours
Mercado Pago supported the event with expanded credit lines and interest‑free installments

The article notes that despite the bounce, the stock still traded about 17–18% below its 52‑week high, framing MELI as a dominant franchise going through a mid‑cycle consolidation.

The Fed, rates and risk appetite

Global risk appetite — and valuations for growth names like MELI — are also being shaped by central banks:

The Fed’s December 2025 meeting (decision expected tomorrow) is widely expected to deliver a third rate cut this year, with markets watching for how quickly cuts might continue into 2026. ^[48]
Higher‑for‑longer rates so far in 2025 have made investors more selective about expensive growth stocks. A shift to a clearer easing cycle could support multiple expansion for companies like MercadoLibre.

Upcoming Q4 2025 results

MercadoLibre’s own event calendar lists February 24, 2026 (provisional) as the date for Q4 2025 results. ^[49]

Street expectations for Q4, per Zacks and other aggregators, include: ^[50]

Revenue: around $8.3–8.5 billion, up roughly 39–40% YoY
Fintech revenue: roughly $3.6+ billion, up mid‑40s % YoY
EPS: about $11.8–11.9, modestly down year over year as investments and credit costs weigh on margins

How MercadoLibre threads the needle between growth and profitability in Q4 will likely set the tone for MELI shares heading into 2026.

Key risks and opportunities for MELI stock

Main upside drivers

Unmatched ecosystem scale in Latin America across marketplace, payments, credit, logistics, and advertising
Sustained 30–40%+ revenue growth, with both commerce and fintech still gaining share ^[51]
Huge reinvestment into Brazil and Mexico, which remain underpenetrated in e‑commerce and digital banking ^[52]
Investment‑grade credit rating and new long‑term debt that broaden funding options at competitive rates ^[53]
Strong institutional support from major funds like D1 Capital and broad hedge‑fund participation ^[54]

Main downside and execution risks

Margin pressure from free shipping, logistics expansion and heavy marketing spend
Credit risk if macro conditions worsen in Brazil, Mexico or Argentina, or if underwriting proves too optimistic ^[55]
Competition from Amazon, Sea’s Shopee, Chinese entrants like Temu and local players, especially around holiday promotions and subsidies ^[56]
High valuation, which leaves less room for error if growth slows or credit losses rise ^[57]
Leadership transition risk, even if framed as orderly, as investors adjust to a new CEO at a critical scaling phase ^[58]

Bottom line

As of December 9, 2025, MercadoLibre stock sits at a crossroads:

The underlying business story looks as strong as ever, with 30–40% revenue growth, deepening ecosystem engagement, and aggressive investment in logistics and fintech.
The company has upgraded its balance sheet to investment grade, tapped bond markets at attractive terms, and continues to attract major institutional capital. ^[59]
Yet the stock trades well below its 2025 highs because margins, credit risk and rich valuation have become impossible for investors to ignore.

Analyst targets clustered around $2,850–$2,875 suggest substantial upside from current levels if MercadoLibre can keep executing — but near‑term earnings revisions, credit quality and macro conditions across Latin America could still make for a bumpy ride.

For anyone following MELI, the next key checkpoints are:

The Fed’s final rate decision of 2025, which will shape risk appetite and discount rates
MercadoLibre’s Q4 2025 earnings in February 2026
Early indications of how the CEO transition and massive Brazil/Mexico investment plans translate into growth, margins and credit performance

Disclosure: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial or investment advice. Always do your own research or consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.