MercadoLibre, Inc. (NASDAQ: MELI) just closed out Wednesday, December 10, 2025 with a sharp sell-off that will be front-of-mind when trading resumes on Thursday.
The Latin American e‑commerce and fintech leader fell 5.0% to $1,970.73, down from $2,074.48 the previous session. Intraday, the stock swung about 4.1% between a low near $1,957 and a high around $2,037.50, on heavier-than-usual volume. [1]
At the same time, MercadoLibre announced a cutting‑edge logistics partnership using humanoid robots, digested a fresh $750 million bond deal, and faced a new round of warnings about credit risk and margin pressure.
Below is what happened after the bell on December 10 – and what traders and investors should watch before the market opens on December 11, 2025.
Quick takeaways before the December 11 open
- Price action: MELI closed at $1,970.73, down 5.0% on Wednesday; the stock has lost about 4.1% over the last two weeks and is in a short‑term falling trend. [2]
- Technical backdrop: Third‑party technical models now classify MELI as a “sell candidate”, with a projected ‑15% downside over the next three months if the current downtrend continues. [3]
- Key fresh news (Dec. 10):
- MercadoLibre signed a commercial agreement with Agility Robotics to deploy Digit humanoid robots in its San Antonio, Texas fulfillment center, with potential expansion into Latin America. [4]
- Zacks published a detailed note flagging risks from MercadoLibre’s rapidly expanding credit book, which grew 83% year over year to $11 billion in Q3 2025. [5]
- Simply Wall St released a new DCF valuation suggesting MELI is about 29% undervalued on a long‑term cash‑flow basis, despite a high headline P/E. [6]
- Debt and balance sheet: MercadoLibre recently completed a $750 million offering of 4.900% senior notes due 2033, adding long‑term funding but also leverage. [7]
- Street view: Despite the pullback, Wall Street’s 12‑month price targets cluster around $2,800–$2,900, implying roughly 35–45% upside versus Wednesday’s close, with an overall “Buy”/“Strong Buy” consensus. [8]
How MercadoLibre stock traded on December 10, 2025
According to StockInvest, MercadoLibre’s share price: [9]
- Closed: $1,970.73
- Change: –$103.75 (‑5.00%)
- Intraday range: $1,957.00 – $2,037.50
- Two‑week performance: –4.1%
- Volume: About 943,000 shares, significantly above the prior day, with volume rising on a down day – a classic sign of intensified selling pressure.
MarketBeat data show the stock now trades roughly between its 52‑week low of $1,646.00 and 52‑week high of $2,645.22, with: [10]
- Market capitalization: ≈ $105 billion
- Trailing P/E: ~50.6x
- Beta:1.42 (higher volatility than the broader market)
- Debt‑to‑equity:0.55, with quick ratio 1.15 and current ratio 1.17 (solid short‑term liquidity).
Zacks recently noted that as of December 8, MELI shares had already declined 15.6% over six months, lagging both the retail‑wholesale sector and internet commerce peers. [11] Wednesday’s additional 5% slide deepens that six‑month drawdown.
The fundamentals behind the volatility: Q3 2025 in focus
The current debate over MercadoLibre isn’t about growth – it’s about how expensive that growth has become.
Strong growth, thinner margins
For Q3 2025 (results released October 29), MercadoLibre reported: [12]
- Net revenues & financial income:$7.41 billion, up 39% year over year (and 49% FX‑neutral).
- Operating income:$724 million, up 30% YoY, for a 9.8% operating margin.
- Net income:$421 million, a 5.7% net margin.
- Total Payment Volume (TPV):$71.2 billion, up 41% YoY (54% FX‑neutral).
- 27th consecutive quarter of >30% YoY revenue growth.
However, Zacks points out that operating margin slipped about 70 basis points to 9.8%, while net margin fell from 7.5% to 5.7% year over year, as logistics, free shipping incentives in Brazil, and fintech investments outpaced revenue growth. [13]
An aggressive credit expansion
The most sensitive flashpoint right now is MercadoLibre’s credit portfolio, concentrated inside its fintech arm, Mercado Pago:
- Total credit portfolio:$11 billion in Q3 2025, up 83% year over year.
- Growth is spread across consumer, merchant, and asset‑backed loans, with a rising share of credit card originations. [14]
- Net Interest Margin After Losses (NIMAL):21%, easing sequentially as funding costs climbed sharply in Argentina. [15]
- Asset quality remains relatively stable but not trivial: about 6.8% of loans are 15–90 days past due, and 17.6% are more than 90 days past due. [16]
Zacks’ December 10 note emphasizes that this rapid credit expansion boosts engagement and fintech revenue, but also heightens margin and risk considerations – especially because the company is still in a “margin‑dilutive phase” where portfolio growth is outrunning monetisation. [17]
New December 10 headlines: robots, risk and valuation
1. Humanoid robots in a Texas fulfillment center
On Wednesday morning, MercadoLibre announced a commercial agreement with Agility Robotics to deploy the Digit humanoid robot in its San Antonio, Texas facility. [18]
Key points:
- Digit will initially handle repetitive, physically demanding tasks like moving totes and transporting materials.
- The companies will explore broader use cases and potential expansion to warehouses across Latin America.
- Management frames the initiative as a way to improve ergonomics, address labor shortages, and boost productivity, while freeing employees for higher‑value work. [19]
Financially, the near‑term impact is limited, but strategically it underscores MercadoLibre’s push for automation and AI‑enabled logistics, which could reinforce its fulfilment moat over time.
2. Zacks flags “mounting risk” from the expanding credit book
The new Zacks piece, republished on Nasdaq and TradingView, goes straight at the credit expansion story: [20]
- It highlights the 83% YoY credit portfolio growth and notes that credit cards now represent a growing share of new loans.
- While fintech revenues are projected to grow ~45% in Q4 2025 to about $3.63 billion, the need for higher provisions for doubtful accounts and rising funding costs are squeezing profitability. [21]
- Zacks keeps MercadoLibre at Rank #3 (Hold) and sees Q4 2025 EPS around $11.85, roughly 6% below last year, even as revenue momentum stays strong. [22]
A separate Zacks article from December 8 notes that MELI’s six‑month share price decline of about 15.6% reflects investor unease about: [23]
- Ongoing margin compression,
- An increasingly competitive landscape in Latin American e‑commerce and fintech (notably from Amazon, Shopee/Sea Limited, and others), and
- MercadoLibre’s premium valuation versus peers.
3. Simply Wall St: 29% DCF upside but a stretched P/E
Also on December 10, Simply Wall St published a detailed valuation deep dive: [24]
- The article notes MELI is up 17.5% year to date, 10.4% over the last year, and 138.3% over three years, despite recent pullbacks.
- Using a two‑stage Discounted Cash Flow model, they estimate:
- Trailing free cash flow around $8.8 billion,
- Rising to roughly $15.7 billion by 2035 under their forecast.
- Their intrinsic value estimate is $2,922 per share, implying the stock is about 29% undervalued versus recent prices.
- However, MERcadoLibre trades at about 50.6x earnings, while their “fair” P/E based on growth and risk is 34.1x, leading them to label the stock overvalued on a pure P/E basis, even if DCF says “undervalued.”
Their net conclusion: MercadoLibre passes 3 of 6 valuation tests, suggesting selective undervaluation rather than a screaming bargain.
4. Fresh technical call: short‑term “sell candidate”
StockInvest’s technical model, updated after Wednesday’s close, characterizes MELI as: [25]
- In the middle of a wide, falling short‑term trend,
- A “sell candidate” since December 9,
- With an expected ‑15.36% move over the next three months, and a 90% probability range between $1,538.65 and $1,848.94 if the pattern holds.
For Thursday, December 11, the same model expects:
- Predicted opening price: about $1,988.41,
- Intraday range: roughly $1,931.93–$2,009.53 (±4.0% around the last close),
- Nearby support: heavy volume support around $1,951.78,
- First major resistance: near $2,176.91.
These numbers are purely model‑driven and don’t guarantee actual market behavior, but they give a framework for likely volatility and key levels heading into the open.
Balance sheet update: new $750 million bond issue
Just a day earlier, MercadoLibre completed a $750 million offering of 4.900% senior notes due 2033. [26]
- Ratings agencies such as S&P have assigned investment‑grade ratings (around ‘BBB‑’) to the company’s senior unsecured notes, reinforcing its access to public debt markets. [27]
- With a debt‑to‑equity ratio of 0.55, MercadoLibre is adding leverage but still operates with moderate gearing relative to its growth and cash‑flow profile. [28]
For equity holders, the new bond deal is a double‑edged sword:
- Positive: locks in long‑term funding at sub‑5% coupons, supporting investments in logistics, technology, and credit while spreading out repayment risk.
- Negative: increases fixed obligations at a time when margins are under pressure, making sustained cash‑flow growth even more critical.
What Wall Street is saying about MELI now
Despite recent turbulence, Street research remains broadly constructive on MercadoLibre.
Consensus ratings and targets
Across several aggregators:
- StockAnalysis: 18 analysts rate MELI a “Strong Buy”, with an average target around $2,874. [29]
- MarketBeat: 20 analysts show an average 12‑month target of about $2,848.82, with a high target of $3,500 and a low of $2,300, implying ~44–45% upside from roughly $1,970.73. [30]
- MarketWatch: reports an average target price of ~$2,865.50 across 27 ratings, with an average recommendation of “Buy.” [31]
- TipRanks: pegs the average 12‑month target at $2,793.64, implying ~34% upside. [32]
In short, most analysts still see substantial upside from current levels, even if they acknowledge mounting risks.
Recent analyst actions
StockAnalysis’ forecast page highlights several key rating moves in the last few weeks: [33]
- BTIG (Dec. 4, 2025): Reiterated “Strong Buy” with a $2,750 target (~40% upside).
- UBS (Nov. 24, 2025): Maintained “Strong Buy”, trimming its target from $3,000 to $2,900.
- Morgan Stanley (Nov. 3, 2025): Maintained “Buy”, nudging its target up from $2,850 to $2,950.
- J.P. Morgan (Nov. 3, 2025): Maintained “Hold” with a target lifted slightly to $2,650.
Meanwhile, Zacks keeps a more cautious stance with a Rank #3 (Hold), citing a premium valuation and uncertain timing for margin recovery despite impressive growth metrics. [34]
Options and positioning: volatility but not panic
Options data from OptionCharts suggest that, as of December 10: [35]
- Implied volatility (IV): ~35.5%
- IV rank: about 18%, meaning current implied volatility is below recent highs.
- Options volume: around 1,300 contracts, about 41% of average daily volume.
That combination points to elevated but not extreme volatility expectations – traders are not yet pricing in a dramatic re‑rating, even after the 5% move.
On the equity side, MarketBeat notes that hedge fund Night Squared LP recently sold 2,335 shares of MercadoLibre, another data point suggesting some institutional profit‑taking after the stock’s multi‑year rally. [36]
What to watch before the open on December 11, 2025
Here are the key angles to monitor as traders prepare for Thursday’s session:
1. Does support around $1,950 hold?
Technical models flag $1,951–$1,960 as an important near‑term support zone, with first major resistance near $2,175–$2,180. [37]
If the stock:
- Holds above support: it may signal that bargain‑hunters and longer‑term investors are stepping in, stabilising the price after the credit‑risk headlines.
- Breaks decisively below: it would confirm the short‑term downtrend and increase the odds of the deeper pullback projected by technical models.
2. Market reaction to the credit‑risk narrative
Given Wednesday’s sell‑off coincided with a high‑profile Zacks piece on credit risk, watch:
- Whether new commentary from banks or rating agencies picks up this theme.
- Any update from management around credit underwriting, provisioning, or NPL trends.
- How broader markets are treating consumer‑credit and fintech names, especially in emerging markets.
If more institutions echo the “mounting risk” framing, it could keep pressure on the stock despite strong top‑line growth.
3. Bond market and macro backdrop
With fresh 2033 notes outstanding and Latin America facing currency and rate volatility, investors will also be watching:
- Yields on MercadoLibre’s new and existing bonds,
- Any shifts in EM risk sentiment that might affect funding costs,
- Macro datapoints out of Brazil, Mexico and Argentina, which drive both marketplace and fintech volumes.
Higher perceived funding risk would further tighten the margin equation.
4. Long‑term narrative: ecosystem strength vs. profitability
Across recent deep dives:
- Zacks emphasizes margin compression and premium valuation. [38]
- Simply Wall St’s DCF suggests meaningful long‑term upside if free cash flow scales as expected. [39]
- Earlier analysis from StockStory, AlphaSense, and others has highlighted 27 straight quarters of >30% revenue growth and rising market share in Brazil, Mexico, and other key markets. [40]
Heading into Thursday, the market’s job is to reconcile those two narratives:
Is MercadoLibre in a healthy investment phase that will set up better margins later, or in a structurally more expensive race where profitability remains capped?
How the stock trades around support, and whether new buyers emerge, will give an early hint at which story is winning.
Final word: risk, reward, and what this article is (and isn’t)
MercadoLibre heads into the December 11 open:
- Fresh off a 5% one‑day drop,
- Still delivering stand‑out growth in e‑commerce and fintech,
- But facing heightened scrutiny around its credit expansion, funding costs, and margin trajectory.
Short‑term technicals lean bearish, while long‑term fundamental and DCF‑based views remain broadly bullish, and Wall Street targets still sit well above today’s price.
This article is for informational and news purposes only and is not financial advice. It doesn’t take into account your personal objectives, financial situation, or risk tolerance. If you’re considering trading or investing in MELI, it’s wise to:
- Review the company’s latest filings and shareholder materials,
- Compare multiple independent research sources, and
- Consider speaking with a qualified financial adviser.
References
1. stockinvest.us, 2. stockinvest.us, 3. stockinvest.us, 4. www.stocktitan.net, 5. www.nasdaq.com, 6. simplywall.st, 7. www.investing.com, 8. stockanalysis.com, 9. stockinvest.us, 10. www.marketbeat.com, 11. www.nasdaq.com, 12. investor.mercadolibre.com, 13. www.nasdaq.com, 14. www.nasdaq.com, 15. www.nasdaq.com, 16. www.nasdaq.com, 17. www.nasdaq.com, 18. www.stocktitan.net, 19. www.stocktitan.net, 20. www.nasdaq.com, 21. www.nasdaq.com, 22. www.nasdaq.com, 23. www.nasdaq.com, 24. simplywall.st, 25. stockinvest.us, 26. www.investing.com, 27. www.spglobal.com, 28. www.marketbeat.com, 29. stockanalysis.com, 30. www.marketbeat.com, 31. www.marketwatch.com, 32. www.tipranks.com, 33. stockanalysis.com, 34. www.nasdaq.com, 35. optioncharts.io, 36. www.marketbeat.com, 37. stockinvest.us, 38. www.nasdaq.com, 39. simplywall.st, 40. stockstory.org
