MercadoLibre, Inc. (NASDAQ: MELI) ended the regular session on Thursday, Dec. 18, 2025, higher and held onto those gains in after-hours trading—after a major catalyst hit the tape: Moody’s upgraded MercadoLibre to investment grade. [1]
By the 4:00 p.m. ET close, MELI finished at $1,964.46, up $48.18 (+2.51%). In late after-hours trading (around 7:50–8:00 p.m. ET), the stock was hovering around $1,965–$1,966, modestly above the close. [2]
With the next session set for Friday, Dec. 19, 2025, here’s what investors should know before the opening bell—what moved the stock today, what Moody’s actually said, and what the market will likely watch next.
After the bell: Where MELI stands tonight
MELI’s Thursday move wasn’t just a small drift higher—it snapped a short losing streak. MercadoLibre had closed lower in each of the prior three sessions (Dec. 15–17) before bouncing on Dec. 18. [3]
Key end-of-day stats from Thursday’s trading:
- Close: $1,964.46 (+2.51%)
- After-hours: roughly $1,966 (slightly positive vs. the close)
- Regular-session range: about $1,932.49 to $1,983.22
- Volume: about 686K shares [4]
That price action matters heading into Friday because it positions MELI near a psychologically important zone: $2,000. The stock has traded above and below that level multiple times this quarter, and it’s often where short-term momentum either accelerates—or fades. [5]
The big catalyst: Moody’s upgrades MercadoLibre to investment grade
The headline driving Thursday’s move: Moody’s Ratings upgraded MercadoLibre to investment grade, assigning a Baa3 issuer rating and lifting the company’s senior unsecured notes to Baa3 from Ba1, with a stable outlook. [6]
Moody’s rationale (in plain English): it sees stronger, more consistent credit metrics, continued growth, and ongoing operational execution—supported by MercadoLibre’s scale in Latin American e-commerce and fintech, and its continued investment in logistics. [7]
The numbers and signposts Moody’s highlighted
Moody’s also laid out the financial guardrails it expects MercadoLibre to operate within, including:
- Lease-adjusted debt / EBITDA: roughly 2.5x–3.0x in fiscal 2025–2026
- Interest coverage: expected around 9.0x–9.5x
- Cash/cash equivalents/investment securities: about $5.3 billion as of September 2025 (excluding restricted amounts)
- Adjusted free cash flow: about $1.0 billion for the twelve months ended September 2025, with expectations to sustain $1.0–$1.5 billion in 2025–2026 [8]
Moody’s also pointed to factors it views positively for governance and risk management—such as greater transparency in fintech disclosures, ongoing regulatory reporting in Brazil and Mexico, and plans tied to digital bank licenses in Mexico and Argentina. [9]
For Friday’s session, this matters because credit-rating actions can trigger real capital flows—not just a one-day stock pop—especially if more fixed-income mandates, bank counterparties, and large institutions become comfortable expanding exposure after an investment-grade stamp.
Why investment grade is a bigger deal for MELI than a typical “rating headline”
For MercadoLibre, the market often values the company as a high-growth compounder—but it also scrutinizes the risks that come with growth, especially in credit (via Mercado Pago’s lending activities) and in the capital intensity of logistics and fulfillment.
An investment-grade profile can influence all of that by potentially:
- lowering the cost of funding over time (important for scaled fintech + credit),
- broadening the pool of bond buyers and long-horizon investors,
- improving flexibility when markets tighten.
And there’s important context: MercadoLibre has already highlighted investment-grade progress at other rating agencies in prior periods. For example, the company announced S&P upgraded it to ‘BBB-’ with a Stable Outlook in 2025 (following Fitch’s earlier move to investment grade). [10]
Separately, MercadoLibre also tapped the bond market this month, announcing a $750 million issuance of senior unsecured notes due 2033, describing it as strongly in demand and “oversubscribed,” with the release referencing issuer ratings of BBB- (S&P) / BBB- (Fitch) at the time. [11]
Taken together, Moody’s action on Dec. 18 reinforces a message investors have been watching closely: MercadoLibre wants to keep growing fast without losing financial flexibility.
Today’s other MELI headlines: institutional selling and an updated Street snapshot
Beyond Moody’s, the other widely circulated MELI-specific item on Thursday was a filing-driven update about institutional positioning.
MarketBeat reported that Assenagon Asset Management cut its MercadoLibre stake by 71.9% in Q3, selling 94,471 shares and ending the quarter with 36,912 shares. [12]
That kind of headline can pressure sentiment at the margin—especially after volatility earlier in the quarter—but it’s also backward-looking (Q3 positioning) rather than a real-time read on demand tonight.
Meanwhile, the broader “Street view” remains constructive. MarketBeat’s consensus snapshot shows:
- Consensus rating: “Moderate Buy”
- Average 12-month price target:$2,848.82
- Implied upside: about 45% from current levels
- Target range:$2,300 (low) to $3,500 (high) [13]
MarketWatch’s analyst-estimates snapshot similarly lists an average target price around $2,853 with 27 ratings displayed. [14]
Fundamentals check: what the business is doing underneath the stock
Rating actions can move markets fast—but they stick only if fundamentals support the story.
In its Q3 2025 results, MercadoLibre reported net revenue up 39% year over year to $7.4 billion, marking the 27th consecutive quarter with growth above 30% YoY, according to the company’s Business Wire release. [15]
Operationally, Mercado Pago (fintech) continued to be a central growth engine. The same release cited:
- Mercado Pago net revenue:$3.2 billion (up 49% YoY in USD)
- Total payment volume (TPV): above $71 billion (up 41% YoY in USD)
- Monthly active users:72 million (up 29% YoY)
- Credit portfolio:$11.0 billion (up 83% YoY)
- Credit card portfolio:$4.8 billion (up 104% YoY) [16]
That last set of numbers—especially the pace of credit expansion—is also why some analysts keep a close eye on credit quality trends. A recent Motley Fool analysis flagged loan defaults / bad-debt costs as a key area to watch and pointed to competitive pressures in e-commerce as another swing factor for margins. [17]
What to watch before the market opens Friday, Dec. 19
Here are the practical, market-moving items likely to matter most in the next 12–18 hours.
1) Whether the Moody’s catalyst gets follow-through (or fades)
Tonight’s after-hours action looks calm, not euphoric—MELI is only modestly above the close. [18]
That sets up a straightforward read for Friday:
- Follow-through would look like early buying that pushes MELI back toward (or above) $2,000.
- Fade risk would look like an opening pop that sells off quickly, especially if broader tech weakens.
2) Any early Friday analyst notes tied to the upgrade
Rating actions often prompt quick-turn commentary (reaffirmations, target tweaks, “credit story improving” notes). Even if consensus targets don’t change much, headlines can shape the day’s narrative and intraday flows. [19]
3) Options-related volatility risk on Dec. 19
Friday is an active date on the options calendar for many U.S. equities, and MELI has listed expirations including Dec. 19, 2025. [20]
Even without “unusual options activity,” expiration dynamics can amplify intraday swings—especially around round-number price levels.
4) Watch credit and funding signals, not just the stock ticker
Because Moody’s explicitly discussed funding access for MercadoLibre’s credit portfolio and the company’s fintech disclosure cadence, investors may look for confirmation in:
- bond pricing / spreads (where available),
- updates tied to fintech regulatory frameworks in key markets,
- any new corporate communications.
Recent bond-market activity is also part of the story, with MercadoLibre highlighting strong demand for its $750 million 2033 note issuance earlier this month. [21]
5) Know the next major scheduled catalyst: Q4 earnings timing
According to MercadoLibre’s investor relations events calendar, Q4’25 results are listed as a provisional date of Feb. 24, 2026. [22]
That means, between now and then, MELI trading is likely to be driven more by:
- macro and FX moves across Latin America,
- credit quality narratives (Mercado Pago),
- competitive headlines (delivery, marketplace share),
- and sentiment/positioning into year-end.
Bottom line for Friday’s open
As of after-hours on Dec. 18, MercadoLibre stock is acting like a company with a real catalyst, but not a crowded trade—up strongly in the session, then stable after the bell. [23]
Moody’s investment-grade upgrade is the kind of development that can matter beyond a single day because it speaks directly to MercadoLibre’s funding flexibility as it scales fintech and credit across Latin America. [24]
For the next session, the clean checklist is:
- Follow-through vs. fade around $2,000,
- any analyst follow-ups sparked by the rating action,
- options expiration effects that can exaggerate intraday moves,
- and the ongoing “growth vs. credit risk” debate that remains central to the MELI thesis. [25]
References
1. stockanalysis.com, 2. stockanalysis.com, 3. stockanalysis.com, 4. stockanalysis.com, 5. stockanalysis.com, 6. www.investing.com, 7. www.investing.com, 8. www.investing.com, 9. www.investing.com, 10. investor.mercadolibre.com, 11. www.businesswire.com, 12. www.marketbeat.com, 13. www.marketbeat.com, 14. www.marketwatch.com, 15. www.businesswire.com, 16. www.businesswire.com, 17. www.fool.com, 18. stockanalysis.com, 19. www.marketbeat.com, 20. www.tradingview.com, 21. www.businesswire.com, 22. investor.mercadolibre.com, 23. stockanalysis.com, 24. www.investing.com, 25. www.fool.com
