MercadoLibre Stock Today: MELI Rebounds as Fintech Growth, New Partnerships and Analyst Targets Point to 2026 Re‑Rating

MercadoLibre, Inc. (NASDAQ: MELI) shares are back in rally mode at the start of December, even as investors continue to digest a mixed third quarter, fresh institutional moves and a wave of new valuation work around the Latin American e‑commerce and fintech giant.

As of trading on December 2, 2025, MercadoLibre stock was changing hands at around $2,149, up roughly 4% on the day, leaving the shares about 19% below their 52‑week high of $2,645 but more than 30% above this year’s low near $1,646. ^[1]

At the current price, MercadoLibre carries a market capitalization in the $105–110 billion range, with a trailing P/E multiple around 50x and a 52‑week range of $1,646–$2,645. ^[2]

Key takeaways for MercadoLibre (MELI) on December 2, 2025

Stock rebound: MELI trades near $2,150 after a sharp post‑earnings pullback, still well below its 52‑week high but comfortably above year‑to‑date lows. ^[3]
Explosive but costly growth: Q3 2025 revenue grew about 39% year over year to $7.4 billion, but net profit and margins missed expectations as the company leaned into free shipping, credit expansion and regional logistics. ^[4]
Fintech engine: Mercado Pago’s credit portfolio surged 83% to about $11 billion, with fintech revenue up ~49% in Q3 to roughly $3.2 billion and monthly active users around 72 million. ^[5]
Wall Street still bullish: Across major data providers, analysts maintain “Buy” to “Strong Buy” ratings with average 12‑month price targets around $2,850–$2,875, implying roughly one‑third upside from current levels. ^[6]
Valuation debate: Fresh DCF models from Simply Wall St and AInvest put “fair value” around $2,890–$2,900 per share, suggesting ~29% undervaluation, even as traditional multiples remain well above sector averages. ^[7]

MercadoLibre stock price today and recent performance

Real‑time data from Investing.com shows MercadoLibre trading near $2,149, up more than 4% in Tuesday’s session. The stock’s intraday range sits roughly between $2,066 and $2,154, with the 52‑week band at $1,646–$2,645. ^[8]

StockAnalysis lists MELI’s market cap around $109 billion, a trailing twelve‑month P/E near 52x and a beta above 1.4, underlining both premium valuation and above‑market volatility typical of a high‑growth, emerging‑markets play. ^[9]

Despite the recent bounce, the shares remain almost 19% below their 52‑week high, reflecting the Q3 earnings hangover and ongoing debate about how much profitability the company is willing to sacrifice to cement its dominance in Latin American e‑commerce and digital finance. ^[10]

Earnings backdrop: Q3 2025 revenue beats, profit disappoints

The central fundamental story investors are trading around today is still MercadoLibre’s Q3 2025 report, released on October 29:

Net revenue: about $7.4 billion, up 39% year over year and above market expectations near $7.2 billion.
Net income: roughly $421 million, up about 6% year over year but below analyst consensus of around $481 million.
EBIT (operating) margin: dropped to about 9.8%, the lowest since Q4 2023, as free‑shipping expansion and macro headwinds in Argentina weighed on profitability.
GMV growth: Gross Merchandise Value jumped 35% on a currency‑neutral basis, with Brazil posting 34% growth and its fastest unique‑buyer growth since early 2021.
Fintech growth: Mercado Pago’s loan book rose 83% to roughly $11 billion, while 15–90 day delinquency improved from 7.8% to 6.8% and acquiring payment volume climbed 32% to about $47.7 billion. ^[11]

Reuters summed it up neatly: demand is not the issue—MercadoLibre is still growing like a classic hyper‑growth platform. The pressure is on margins and net profit, largely because management is intentionally spending on shipping, logistics and credit to capture long‑term share in Brazil, Mexico and Argentina. ^[12]

This stands in contrast to Q1 2025, when the company beat profit estimates with a 44% year‑on‑year increase in net income to $494 million, helped by a strong rebound in Argentina and an EBIT margin of 12.9%. ^[13]

Two missed EPS quarters (Q2 and Q3) despite consistent revenue beats have fueled this autumn’s volatility and the ongoing valuation tug‑of‑war. TS2 Tech+1

What’s new on December 2, 2025: fresh research and 13F moves

1. Digital‑payments expansion under the microscope

A new Simply Wall St piece published today – “Does MercadoLibre’s Latest Digital Payments Expansion Signal a New Value Opportunity in 2025?” – frames the stock as a nuanced valuation puzzle rather than a straightforward bargain or bubble. ^[14]

Key points from that analysis:

Using a two‑stage discounted cash flow (DCF) model, they estimate an intrinsic value of about $2,903.59 per share, implying roughly a 28.9% discount to the current market price.
They highlight MercadoLibre’s latest innovations in digital payments and expansion into new Latin American markets as the main drivers of long‑term cash‑flow growth. ^[15]
At the same time, they note the stock trades on a P/E of about 50.4x, versus a proprietary “fair” multiple of 34.8x and an industry average near 20x, suggesting that on traditional earnings metrics MELI still looks expensive. ^[16]

Another fresh December analysis from AInvest, “Is MercadoLibre Still a Buy After Strong Growth and Fintech Expansion?”, reaches a similar but independently derived conclusion:

Their DCF model pegs fair value at about $2,888 per share, implying roughly 29% upside from late‑November prices. ^[17]
They estimate 2025 revenue growth around 39–40%, driven by a ~49% jump in fintech revenue to roughly $3.2 billion in Q3 alone. ^[18]
Mercado Pago’s credit portfolio is shown at ~$11 billion (+83% YoY), credit cards at $4.8 billion (+104% YoY) and 72 million monthly active users, up about 29% versus the prior year. ^[19]
Yet, this expansion has compressed net margin to about 5.7–6% in Q3, reinforcing the idea of a deliberate trade‑off between growth and profitability. ^[20]

Together, the two pieces capture the core debate: DCF‑driven models see MELI as undervalued on long‑term cash flows, but headline multiples scream “expensive” versus peers.

2. Hedge‑fund and institutional reshuffle

Today also brought a flurry of new 13F‑based alerts from MarketBeat, highlighting how big money has been repositioning around MercadoLibre:

Panagora Asset Management increased its stake by about 18.8%, buying 5,466 shares in Q2 to bring its holding to 34,470 shares, worth about $90 million and representing roughly 0.07% of the company. ^[21]
Arrowstreet Capital trimmed its position by 4.7%, selling 25,564 shares to end the quarter with 521,031 shares (about 1.03% of the company, worth roughly $1.36 billion). ^[22]
Fisher Asset Management reduced its stake by 6.2% to about 77,322 shares (~$202 million). ^[23]
OMERS Administration Corp cut its holding by 6.4% to 3,049 shares (~$8 million). ^[24]

At the same time, these filings show large inflows from Norges Bank, Invesco, UBS and GQG Partners, contributing to institutional ownership north of 87%. ^[25]

TS2’s November 29 and December 1 round‑ups note that this pattern looks less like an exodus and more like healthy profit‑taking and rotation within a still‑constructive institutional base. TS2 Tech+1

3. “Is MELI still a bargain?” and value‑stock comparisons

New commentary in the last 24 hours has asked whether MercadoLibre is still a bargain after a roughly 17% rebound from its post‑earnings lows and fintech‑driven growth. ^[26]

Meanwhile, Zacks / Yahoo Finance coverage comparing Expedia (EXPE) vs. MercadoLibre (MELI) on value metrics emphasized that MELI screens richly valued on traditional ratios but offers stronger growth and margin expansion potential, leaving the answer dependent on an investor’s time horizon and risk tolerance. ^[27]

Strategic moves: shipping, partnerships and regional mega‑investments

Free‑shipping expansion in Brazil

Back in June, MercadoLibre slashed the free‑shipping threshold in Brazil from 79 reais to 19 reais (roughly $14.15 to $3.40), effectively extending free delivery to most items on its marketplace. ^[28]

Sellers have reportedly seen shipping costs fall by up to 40% since late May.
Analysts at Itaú BBA noted that the changes are targeted at price bands where rivals like Shopee and Amazon have been gaining share. ^[29]

The move is a textbook offense‑over‑margins decision: it helps drive GMV and buyer growth (as seen in Q3) but has contributed to the drop in EBIT margin to 9.8%. ^[30]

Casas Bahia partnership: plugging a product‑category gap

In late October, MercadoLibre announced a long‑term partnership with Brazilian retailer Casas Bahia, under which MELI will start selling Casas Bahia’s electronics and home‑appliance products on its marketplace. ^[31]

Casas Bahia manages logistics for large items like TVs and refrigerators, where it has deep expertise.
The deal aims to lift MercadoLibre’s market share in large home appliances, an area estimated at roughly a quarter of its average share in Brazil. ^[32]
Santander analysts described the arrangement as a “win‑win” for both firms. ^[33]

For MELI, the partnership complements its own logistics network and helps fill gaps in categories where it has historically underperformed.

Billions in regional investment: Brazil, Mexico and Argentina

2025 has also been marked by massive capex commitments across Latin America:

Brazil: MercadoLibre plans to invest about 34 billion reais (≈$5.8 billion) in 2025, a nearly 48% increase vs. 2024, focused on logistics, technology and fintech infrastructure in its largest market. ^[34]
Mexico: The company will deploy about $3.4 billion this year, boosting logistics capacity, AI‑driven product development and financial‑services expansion; the investment also benefits from Mexico’s new 19% import tax on non‑FTA countries, which tilts the playing field toward local ecosystems like MercadoLibre and Amazon versus Shein and Temu. ^[35]
Argentina: MercadoLibre expects to spend roughly $2.6 billion in 2025, leveraging an improving macro backdrop and regulatory reforms to accelerate commerce and fintech penetration. ^[36]

Taken together, these commitments underscore that management is playing a very long game, choosing scale, logistics depth and fintech reach over near‑term margin optimization.

PayPal Global and cross‑border payments

On the fintech side, Mercado Pago is an initial regional partner in PayPal’s new PayPal Global cross‑border payments platform, which links local systems like India’s UPI, China’s Tenpay and popular wallets worldwide. ^[37]

This collaboration should:

Make it easier for Latin American consumers to shop globally using familiar digital wallets.
Help international merchants accept Mercado Pago users more seamlessly.
Strengthen MercadoLibre’s position as a gateway between global brands and Latin American shoppers.

Wall Street view: still a “Buy” with 30–40% upside

Despite short‑term margin worries, sell‑side sentiment remains broadly positive heading into 2026.

Consensus ratings and price targets

StockAnalysis:
- 18 analysts, consensus rating “Strong Buy”.
- Average 12‑month target: $2,874, roughly 34% upside from today’s price.
- Target range: $2,650 (low) to $3,500 (high). ^[38]
MarketBeat:
- 19 analysts, consensus “Moderate Buy”.
- Rating distribution: 16 Buy / Strong Buy, 3 Hold, 0 Sell.
- Average target: about $2,848.82, implying mid‑30s percentage upside depending on entry point. TS2 Tech+1
Investing.com:
- 26 analysts, consensus “Strong Buy”.
- Average target around $2,847, with a spread roughly $2,190–$3,500, reflecting a wide but skewed‑positive outcome range. TS2 Tech+1

Earnings and revenue forecasts

Analyst models compiled by StockAnalysis envisage a still‑steep growth curve: ^[39]

Revenue:
- 2024: $20.8 billion (already up 37.5% vs. 2023).
- 2025: expected around $29.2 billion (+40.3%).
- 2026: about $37.4 billion (+28.2%).
EPS (GAAP basis):
- 2024: $37.69.
- 2025: $42.35 (+12.4%).
- 2026: $62.50 (+47.6%).

On these projections, forward multiples compress materially if MercadoLibre hits its numbers, though they remain elevated versus slower‑growing peers.

Analyst target revisions

Recent target changes illustrate the “trim but stay bullish” tone:

UBS (Nov 24): cut target from $3,000 to $2,900, rating Strong Buy, still implying ~35% upside from current levels. ^[40]
BTIG (Nov 14): reiterated Buy with a $2,750 target. ^[41]
Morgan Stanley (Nov 3): maintained Buy, nudging target up from $2,850 to $2,950. ^[42]
JPMorgan & Barclays (late Oct / early Nov): kept Hold/Overweight ratings with targets mostly in the $2,650–$2,900 band. ^[43]

In other words, targets have inched down from earlier, more euphoric levels, but the directional call is still that MELI should trade meaningfully higher over the next year if growth and margins behave as modeled.

Valuation: DCF optimism vs. rich multiples

DCF and long‑term scenarios

Between Simply Wall St, AInvest and Motley Fool/Nasdaq, several recent models argue that today’s price embeds fairly conservative long‑term assumptions:

Simply Wall St DCF: fair value around $2,903.59, implying MELI is ~29% undervalued. ^[44]
AInvest DCF: intrinsic value $2,888.38, similarly indicating ~29% upside based on a 10% discount rate, 16% revenue CAGR through 2034 and EBIT margin expansion from ~13% to 20%. ^[45]
Motley Fool / Nasdaq long‑term thesis: with current market cap near $100 billion, their scenario envisions MercadoLibre generating $100 billion in annual revenue and 20% net margins in about 10 years; at 25x earnings, that would equate to a $500 billion market cap. ^[46]

These models rest on a few shared assumptions:

Latin America’s e‑commerce and digital‑payments penetration still has a long runway, especially in Mexico, Brazil and Argentina. ^[47]
Mercado Pago keeps monetizing a rapidly expanding user base through payments, credit, savings and potentially insurance and investing. ^[48]
Operating leverage and fintech mix shift ultimately allow margins to re‑expand despite near‑term shipping and credit costs. ^[49]

Traditional ratios: still on the expensive side

At the same time, valuation pieces from AInvest and others are clear that traditional multiples remain punchy: ^[50]

Trailing P/E ~50x, forward P/E ~40x, roughly 180% above the average Consumer Cyclical sector multiple.
Price‑to‑sales around 4x, vs. an industry average near 2x.
EV/EBITDA near 29x, which some analysts consider “fair” for this growth profile but still high relative to more mature retailers and banks.

So the verdict on December 2, 2025 is not “cheap or expensive” in absolute terms—it’s whether you believe MELI can grow into and beyond these multiples.

Balance sheet, capital markets and credit risk

Recent filings indicate MercadoLibre is also active on the funding side:

MarketBeat’s Panagora/OMERS coverage cites debt‑to‑equity around 0.6x, with current and quick ratios above 1.1, suggesting a manageable leverage profile for a fast‑growing platform. ^[51]
The company filed a prospectus supplement (Form 424B2) for potential new senior unsecured notes under its shelf registration, giving it flexibility to raise additional bond financing. ^[52]
S&P Global Ratings assigned a ‘BBB‑’ issue rating to MercadoLibre’s proposed senior unsecured notes, consistent with an investment‑grade but lower‑tier profile, reflecting both strong growth prospects and emerging‑market risks. ^[53]

TS2’s November 20 write‑up on the “sharp pullback, new shelf filing and fresh institutional moves” notes that some investors are wary of future equity or debt issuance, but there is no sign of a broad institutional exit from the name. TS2 Tech+1

Risks: what could go wrong?

Even bullish analysts repeatedly flag several key risks around MercadoLibre stock:

Margin pressure from aggressive growth
- Free‑shipping in Brazil and heavy logistics investment drove EBIT margin down to 9.8% in Q3, and net margin to around 5–6%, with no guarantee of a quick rebound. ^[54]
Credit risk in emerging markets
- The credit portfolio has surged to about $11 billion, with rapid expansion in credit cards; while delinquency metrics improved in Q3, a macro shock or policy change could lead to higher losses. ^[55]
Macro and FX volatility
- Argentina and other markets remain vulnerable to currency swings, inflation and political shifts that can impact demand and reported dollar earnings. ^[56]
Competition and regulation
- Amazon, Shopee, Nubank, local banks and new fintechs all vie for the same consumers. In addition, tax and import policy changes (like Mexico’s 19% tariff on non‑FTA imports) can shift the competitive balance quickly. ^[57]
Valuation risk
- With P/E, P/S and EV/EBITDA well above sector averages, any disappointment in growth, margins or credit quality can trigger outsized share‑price reactions—as seen after Q3. ^[58]

Bottom line: what today’s news means for MELI investors

On December 2, 2025, the picture around MercadoLibre stock looks like this:

The business is firing on most cylinders: high‑30s to 40% revenue growth, powerful fintech momentum, big strategic partnerships (Casas Bahia, PayPal Global) and multi‑billion‑dollar investments across Brazil, Mexico and Argentina. ^[59]
Profitability is under near‑term pressure by design, as management prioritizes market share, credit growth and logistics scale.
Analysts, on average, think the stock should trade 30–40% higher over the next year, and multiple independent DCF models suggest ~30% upside from today’s price—if growth and margin expansion materialize as expected. ^[60]
Valuation risk and macro risk remain very real: with premium multiples and exposure to volatile economies, MELI is unlikely to be a “sleep‑well‑at‑night” stock.

For long‑term, risk‑tolerant investors who believe MercadoLibre will continue to dominate Latin American e‑commerce and fintech, today’s pullback from the highs, combined with bullish DCF and analyst forecasts, may look attractive.

For more conservative or valuation‑sensitive investors, the stock might still feel expensive until margins stabilize and the market gains more confidence that high‑growth, high‑risk credit and shipping bets will pay off.

Either way, the latest December 2 news flow reinforces one thing: MercadoLibre remains one of the most closely watched—and hotly debated—growth stories in global markets. This article is for information only and is not financial or investment advice; anyone considering MELI should weigh their own risk tolerance, time horizon and financial situation, and consider consulting a qualified adviser.