On 1 December 2025, Mercedes‑Benz Group AG (XETR: MBG, “Mercedes‑Benz stock”) is trading around €58–59 on German exchanges, slightly higher on the day and comfortably above its 52‑week low, but still below its recent highs. [1]
Against this calm price action, the company has dropped a flurry of news: a new AI usage goal for its workforce, a board reshuffle effective today, and an already active €2 billion share buyback – all while 2025 earnings guidance remains clearly downbeat.
Below is a detailed, news‑style look at Mercedes‑Benz Group AG stock as of 1 December 2025, covering today’s headlines, fundamentals, forecasts and the key risks investors are watching.
1. Where Mercedes‑Benz Stock Stands on 1 December 2025
- On the Xetra platform, Mercedes‑Benz shares traded around €58.38 at 09:28 CET, up about 0.4% on the session, with an intraday high of €58.60 and opening price of €58.20. The DAX 40 stood near 23,684 points at the same time. [2]
- On Tradegate, a major German off‑exchange venue, indicative quotes shortly after the open showed €58.98, equating to roughly +1.40% over five days and roughly +9.9% year‑to‑date. [3]
- Over the past 52 weeks, the share price has traded roughly between €45 and €63, according to German market data. [4]
From a relative‑performance standpoint, research platform finanzen.net flags Mercedes‑Benz as:
- “Slightly undervalued” on fundamentals
- With a positive medium‑term technical trend (since 26 September 2025)
- And a 4‑week relative outperformance of +9.66% versus the STOXX 600
- Classified as a medium‑risk stock since April 2024. [5]
For investors, that means MBG.DE is currently behaving like a cyclical value stock in recovery mode: not at bargain‑basement levels, but still priced below peak valuations despite recent outperformance.
2. Today’s Headlines: AI Ambitions and a New CTO
2.1 Mercedes‑Benz wants half its workforce using AI by end‑2025
The most eye‑catching 1 December 2025 headline for MBG.DE comes from Reuters:
- Mercedes‑Benz says it has doubled the daily AI usage rate among employees this year.
- The company’s goal is for 50% of its workforce to use AI tools by the end of 2025.
- Management explicitly links this to enhancing the driving experience and improving safety in its vehicles. [6]
This workforce‑level AI target is not emerging in isolation. Earlier in November, Mercedes‑Benz and Celonis highlighted how the automaker is using the Celonis Process Intelligence Platform across more than 30 global production plants to: [7]
- Improve on‑time delivery
- Accelerate decision cycles in production and logistics
- Use AI‑driven anomaly detection in quality management
- Deploy “AI copilots” to forecast delivery timelines and optimize sequencing
Taken together, the message to investors is clear: AI at Mercedes‑Benz is not just about autonomous driving – it is being embedded into manufacturing, logistics and white‑collar workflows.
2.2 Board reshuffle effective 1 December 2025
A second major development taking effect today is a change in the Board of Management:
- Jörg Burzer moves from his role heading Production, Quality & Supply Chain to become Chief Technology Officer (CTO), taking charge of the Development & Procurement division.
- Michael Schiebe, formerly CEO of Mercedes‑AMG and head of the Top‑End Vehicle group, joins the Board of Management as the new head of Production, Quality & Supply Chain Management. [8]
These changes had been signalled earlier in the year when the Supervisory Board formalised the succession plan, with long‑time technology chief Markus Schäfer retiring at the end of his contract. [9]
For shareholders, the timing matters:
- The new CTO (Burzer) has been deeply involved in the company’s Industry 4.0 and MO360 digital production initiatives – precisely where AI and process‑intelligence tools like Celonis are now being scaled. [10]
- Elevating Schiebe, who comes from the performance and luxury sub‑brand AMG, reinforces Mercedes‑Benz’s focus on high‑margin top‑end vehicles as part of its “Mastering Transformation” strategy. [11]
3. 2025 So Far: Revenue Declines but Strong Cash Generation
3.1 Q3 2025: profit slump, but guidance intact
Mercedes‑Benz’s Q3 2025 results, published on 29 October 2025, are the critical backdrop for today’s stock story: [12]
- Net profit fell 30.8% year‑on‑year to €1.19 billion (Q3 2024: €1.72 billion).
- Earnings per share (EPS) dropped from €1.81 to €1.22.
- Reported EBIT plunged 70.2% to €750 million, reflecting hefty restructuring charges.
- Adjusted EBIT – stripping out one‑offs – declined a milder 17.3% to about €2.10 billion.
- Revenue declined 6.9% to €32.15 billion (Q3 2024: €34.53 billion).
Segment trends:
- Mercedes‑Benz Cars revenue: €23.74 billion, down 7.3%, with unit sales down 12.3% to 441,453 vehicles. [13]
- Vans revenue: €4.04 billion, down 13.2%, with unit sales down 7.9% to 83,843. [14]
- Mobility revenue: €5.81 billion, down around 3.4% year‑on‑year. [15]
Management cites three main headwinds:
- Lower sales volumes, particularly in China and parts of Europe
- Increased tariff‑related costs, especially in the US
- Unfavourable foreign‑exchange movements and a soft global macro backdrop [16]
At the same time, the Q3 release underscores several positives:
- Adjusted Group EBIT of €2.099 billion and divisional margins that remained within full‑year guidance ranges.
- A solid free cash flow of the industrial business of €1.4 billion in Q3 and €5.6 billion for the first nine months.
- Net industrial liquidity of €32.3 billion at quarter‑end, up from €28.2 billion a year earlier. [17]
Crucially, Mercedes‑Benz reconfirmed its 2025 guidance, still expecting:
- Group EBIT “significantly below” the €13.6 billion achieved in 2024
- Group revenue “significantly below” 2024’s €145.6 billion
- Unit sales in both Cars and Vans significantly below prior‑year levels [18]
3.2 Q2 2025 and a multi‑quarter revenue downtrend
The trend of falling revenue and profit was already clear in Q2:
- Q2 2025 revenue fell about 10% to €33.2 billion (Q2 2024: €36.7 billion).
- EPS slumped 68%, dropping to €0.95 from €2.95 a year earlier. [19]
Analysts at S&P Global Market Intelligence had flagged ahead of Q3 that the company was on track to report its ninth consecutive quarterly revenue decline, pointing to persistent trade tensions and intensifying competition from Chinese electric‑vehicle manufacturers as key drivers of weaker demand. [20]
3.3 2024 baseline: high earnings, now under pressure
For context, the 2024 financial year remains a strong baseline:
- Group revenue in 2024: €145.6 billion (down 4.5% from €152.4 billion in 2023). [21]
- Group EBIT: €13.6 billion.
- Around 2.4 million vehicles sold and a workforce of about 175,000 employees. [22]
So the story in 2025 is not about a structurally weak business, but rather about navigating a cyclical slowdown while funding a costly transition to EVs and software‑defined vehicles.
4. Capital Returns: Big Dividend and a New €2 Billion Buyback
4.1 A high dividend yield, backed by earnings and cash flow
Mercedes‑Benz is currently one of the highest‑yielding blue chips in Germany:
- The most recent annual dividend, paid in May 2025 for the 2024 financial year, was €4.30 per share. [23]
- With the share price around €58–59, that implies a trailing dividend yield of roughly 7–7.5%, depending on the data provider. [24]
- Dividend information platforms note that Mercedes‑Benz’s 5‑year dividend growth rate is above 30%, albeit from a pandemic‑depressed base, and that the payout is covered by earnings (c. 60–70%) and operating cash flow. [25]
For income‑oriented investors, this makes MBG.DE a classic high‑yield cyclical: the dividend looks attractive, but is tied to the fortunes of a global auto business currently facing margin pressure.
4.2 New share buyback program (2025–2026)
In addition to dividends, Mercedes‑Benz has doubled down on share repurchases:
- On 3 November 2025, the Board of Management, with Supervisory Board approval, launched a new share buyback programme.
- The programme runs through 3 November 2026 and authorises the company to repurchase up to 96 million shares, for a total cash outlay of up to €2 billion (excluding costs). [26]
- Legal advisors report that the intention is to cancel the repurchased shares, reducing the share count over time. [27]
Progress so far (as disclosed for November 2025) shows that Mercedes‑Benz has already been active in the market:
- Between 3 and 28 November 2025, the group bought back 2,909,106 shares at an average price of €57.96, for a total of about €168.6 million. [28]
That means roughly 3% of the authorised volume has already been executed in the first month, signalling that management is serious about capital returns even while earnings are under pressure.
5. Analyst Forecasts and Valuation: Modest Upside, Strong Income
5.1 Consensus price targets
Across major data providers, analyst forecasts for MBG.DE cluster in a tight range:
- Investing.com reports a consensus from 22 analysts with:
- Average 12‑month price target ~€61.9
- High estimate €79
- Low estimate around €41
- Consensus rating: “Buy” (11 Buy, 8 Hold, 3 Sell). [29]
- TradingView shows a very similar picture, with an average price target of €61.82, high €79, low €45. [30]
- AlphaSpread places the average Wall Street target at €60.74, with a low of €40.4 and a high of €82.95, implying about 3% upside from current levels before dividends. [31]
At a spot price near €58–59, the implied 12‑month capital upside from consensus targets is only around 3–8%. But when the 7%+ dividend yield is added, the market is effectively pricing in a high‑single‑digit to low‑double‑digit total return, assuming earnings stabilise and the dividend is maintained.
5.2 Broker commentary and rating changes
Recent broker actions, as collated by MarketScreener, reflect this balanced but slightly positive stance:
- UBS keeps a “Neutral” rating on Mercedes‑Benz Group.
- RBC has raised its price target, explicitly citing the new share buyback and a stronger focus on cost reductions, while maintaining a neutral stance on shorter‑term risks.
- DZ Bank has recently changed its recommendation (the direction isn’t fully visible without subscription, but the move underscores active debate around the stock). [32]
Meanwhile, finanzen.net’s fundamental screen labels the stock “slightly undervalued”, with “positive analyst sentiment” since 11 November 2025 and outperformance versus its benchmark index over the last month. [33]
5.3 Technical and short‑term models
Technical‑indicator platform StockInvest.us estimates a “predicted fair opening price” for 1 December 2025 of €58.14, essentially flat versus the prior close – suggesting no strong short‑term directional signal from its models. [34]
Given:
- The recent 4‑week outperformance
- The stock trading mid‑range in its 52‑week band
- And the heavy capital‑return story (dividends + buyback)
many quantitative models are likely to view MBG.DE as a value/income stock with moderate upside but elevated cyclical risk.
6. Strategy and AI: What It Means for Mercedes‑Benz Stock
Beyond near‑term numbers, investors in MBG.DE are essentially betting on whether the group can “master transformation” – Mercedes‑Benz’s phrase for its strategy to remain highly profitable while pivoting to EVs, software and AI‑driven operations. [35]
Key strategic pillars relevant for the stock:
- Premium and “Top‑End” focus
- The company is leaning into high‑margin segments, with top‑end vehicles (S‑Class, GLS, G‑Class, AMG) representing over 15% of sales in Q3, benefiting mix even as volumes fall. [36]
- Product and tech launch wave
- CEO Ola Källenius calls the current period Mercedes‑Benz’s “biggest product and tech launch program”, highlighting the new CLA and electric GLC as the start of a new generation of models across all drives (ICE, hybrid, EV). [37]
- AI‑driven efficiency and quality
- The Celonis partnership shows AI already being used for order‑to‑delivery, aftersales logistics and anomaly detection in quality assurance, and is described as “central” to how Mercedes‑Benz orchestrates production. [38]
- Today’s goal of 50% workforce AI usage by the end of 2025 reinforces the idea that MBG is pursuing enterprise‑wide AI adoption, not just isolated pilots. [39]
- Cost discipline and restructuring
- Q3 included €1.35 billion in adjustments, mainly €876 million for workforce and optimisation programmes in Germany and abroad. [40]
- Morningstar’s restricted note (headline only) points out that restructuring benefits are already visible and explicitly ties the new share buyback to those cost‑cutting efforts. [41]
For equity investors, the question is whether these moves will offset structural headwinds:
- Intensifying Chinese EV competition
- New and existing tariffs, particularly affecting US‑bound vehicles
- A weak European auto market, with German auto‑sector employment now at its lowest level in more than a decade. [42]
7. Key Risks Investors Are Watching
Owning Mercedes‑Benz Group AG stock in late 2025 comes with several material risks:
- Prolonged revenue decline
- Revenue has been down multiple quarters in a row, and 2025 guidance explicitly calls for revenue and EBIT to be “significantly below” 2024 levels. A deeper or longer‑lasting downturn could force the company to revisit its dividend or buyback pace. [43]
- Cyclical exposure to global demand
- Luxury autos are highly cyclical; if global growth slows further, demand in key regions (China, US, Europe) could stay weak despite new models. [44]
- EV and software transition execution
- Maintaining margins while investing heavily in EV platforms (like MB.EA and AMG.EA), MB.OS software, and AI is a tightrope act; mis‑steps could compress returns on capital. [45]
- Tariff and regulatory risk
- New or higher tariffs, especially in the US and China, can hit both demand and profitability.
- In Europe, policy debates around the future of combustion engines and emissions regulation create uncertainty for the timing and shape of ICE phase‑out. [46]
- Labour and restructuring risk
- Large‑scale workforce adjustments – already provisioned in Q3 – can bring social, political and execution risks, especially in Germany’s heavily unionised auto sector. [47]
8. Who Might MBG.DE Suit – and Who Should Be Cautious?
Potentially attractive for:
- Income‑focused investors comfortable with cycles
- A 7%+ dividend yield, backed by decent cash coverage and complemented by a €2 billion buyback, is hard to ignore in a low‑rate world. [48]
- Value and contrarian investors
- Consensus expects only modest price appreciation, but some valuation services and fundamental screens see the stock as modestly undervalued relative to its cash‑flow profile and asset base. [49]
- Investors bullish on German industry and AI‑driven manufacturing
- If Mercedes‑Benz succeeds in using AI and process‑intelligence to structurally raise productivity, the current downturn could eventually be seen as a capex‑heavy inflection point rather than a long‑term decline. [50]
Should be cautious:
- Investors needing very stable cash flows
- Autos remain one of the most cyclical sectors; double‑digit EPS swings are common, and guidance already calls for sharply lower 2025 earnings. [51]
- Short‑term traders looking for clear momentum
- After strong recent outperformance versus the STOXX 600 and a share price near mid‑range of its 52‑week band, the risk/reward for short‑term momentum trades looks more balanced than asymmetric. [52]
9. Quick FAQ on Mercedes‑Benz Group AG Stock (as of 1 Dec 2025)
Q: What is the Mercedes‑Benz Group AG share price today?
A: On 1 December 2025, MBG.DE is trading around €58–59 on German venues such as Xetra and Tradegate, modestly up on the day and roughly 4–8% below its 52‑week highs. [53]
Q: What is the current dividend yield of Mercedes‑Benz stock?
A: Based on the last dividend of €4.30 per share and the current share price, the trailing dividend yield is around 7–7.5%, above both the German market average and the auto‑sector average. [54]
Q: What do analysts expect for MBG.DE over the next 12 months?
A: Consensus 12‑month price targets cluster around €61–62 per share, implying about 3–8% price upside from current levels. Combined with the high dividend yield, that suggests a potential high‑single‑digit to low‑double‑digit total return if forecasts are met. [55]
Q: How is Mercedes‑Benz using AI, and why does it matter for the stock?
A: Mercedes‑Benz is deploying AI in manufacturing, logistics, quality control and office workflows, supported by platforms like Celonis and its own MO360/MB.OS ecosystem. The company aims for 50% of its workforce to use AI tools by end‑2025, framing AI as a lever for higher productivity, better quality and improved driving experience – factors that, if delivered, could support margins and valuation multiples over time. [56]
Q: Is this article investment advice?
A: No. This overview is informational and journalistic in nature and does not constitute personalised investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Investors should consider their own objectives and risk tolerance, and, if needed, consult a qualified financial adviser.
References
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