Merck & Company, Inc. (NYSE: MRK) ended Friday, December 12, 2025, as a relative bright spot in a broadly weak session for U.S. equities. The stock closed at $100.30 (+1.30%), extending its winning streak to three straight days even as the S&P 500 fell 1.07%. [1]
After the bell, trading was muted: one widely followed quote feed showed MRK at about $100.28 in after-market trading (around 7:04 p.m. ET)—essentially flat versus the close, suggesting investors had largely priced in the day’s catalysts by the end of regular hours. [2]
A crucial calendar note: December 13, 2025 is a Saturday, and U.S. stock markets are closed. So there is no “market open” on 12/13. The next regular U.S. session is Monday, December 15, 2025—and for Merck shareholders, Monday comes with a potentially important dividend timing wrinkle (more on that below). [3]
MRK price action recap: strong close, quiet after-hours
Merck’s Friday performance stood out for two reasons:
- Relative strength vs. the market: MRK gained 1.3% while the major indexes sold off. [4]
- Still below the recent peak: even with the move higher, Merck remains about 5% below its 52-week high ($105.84 on Nov. 25)—a reminder that investors are still weighing longer-term uncertainties, including the post-Keytruda revenue mix. [5]
Volume was ~11.8 million shares, slightly below the recent average cited by market coverage—consistent with a steady, not panicked, move. [6]
The headline driver on Dec. 12: Winrevair gets a positive EU CHMP opinion for expanded use
The most market-relevant Merck news dated December 12, 2025 was the company’s announcement that the European Medicines Agency’s CHMP recommended approval of an expanded indication for WINREVAIR (sotatercept) in adults with pulmonary arterial hypertension (PAH), in combination with other PAH therapies. [7]
Why this matters for MRK stock
Winrevair has become one of the most closely watched “next era” assets in Merck’s portfolio, partly because investors are constantly asking the same question: what can scale fast enough to soften the Keytruda patent cliff later this decade? While Winrevair alone won’t replace Keytruda, regulatory momentum—especially in major markets—helps reinforce the narrative that Merck can build multiple durable revenue engines.
What exactly changed in Europe
Merck said the current EU indication is for adults with PAH with WHO Functional Class II to III to improve exercise capacity, and the CHMP recommendation is for an expanded label that would include WHO FC II, III, and IV, based on the Phase 3 ZENITH study. The next step is review by the European Commission, with a final decision expected in Q1 2026. [8]
The data point investors noticed
Merck highlighted ZENITH results showing a 76% reduction in risk for major morbidity and mortality outcomes (primary endpoint) versus placebo (hazard ratio 0.24), and a large separation in the composite endpoint event rate (17% vs. 55%). Merck also said the trial was stopped early at an interim analysis due to overwhelming efficacy. [9]
That combination—expanded label potential + standout outcomes—helps explain why MRK traded firmly even while the broader tape was red.
Analyst forecasts and Wall Street framing: steady “Buy” lean, but not unanimous
On the research side, December 12 also featured incremental analyst activity. Coverage summaries reported Morgan Stanley maintained an Equal-Weight stance while raising its price target to $102 from $100. [10]
Zooming out from one shop: MarketWatch’s aggregated snapshot showed Merck with an average recommendation of “Overweight” and an average target price around $107.33 (27 ratings). [11]
What that implies (and what it doesn’t)
- A ~$107 target versus a ~$100 stock price implies mid-to-high single-digit upside over a 12-month horizon—respectable, but not the “everyone pile in” signal you see when a catalyst is perceived as transformational.
- The street’s posture reflects a common Merck tension: strong pipeline and product launches on one side, Keytruda concentration and policy/regulatory headline risk on the other.
The bigger fundamental debate still runs through Keytruda—and the pipeline built to follow it
Even on a day where Winrevair stole the spotlight, Merck’s long-term stock narrative remains anchored to Keytruda, the company’s blockbuster oncology therapy.
A widely circulated Dec. 12 analysis (published through Nasdaq, authored by Zacks) emphasized:
- Keytruda faces expected loss of exclusivity in 2028 (a major investor focus). [12]
- It accounts for more than 50% of Merck’s pharmaceutical sales, and the analysis cited $23.3 billion in sales in the first nine months of 2025 (up 8% year over year). [13]
- Merck’s Phase 3 pipeline has nearly tripled since 2021, and the company is positioned to launch around 20 new vaccines and drugs over the next few years, with multiple blockbuster candidates. [14]
The same piece highlighted several assets investors see as important “bridge and build” products, including Capvaxive (a 21-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine), Winrevair, and Enflonsia (clesrovimab)—Merck’s RSV antibody that the analysis noted was approved in the U.S. in June 2025 and under EU review. [15]
Not all headlines are friendly: RSV policy scrutiny remains a live overhang
One reason Merck investors watch the news tape closely is that not all volatility comes from clinical data. Sometimes it’s policy.
A Reuters report earlier this week said U.S. regulators informed senior executives at Merck, Sanofi, and AstraZeneca that their approved infant RSV preventive therapies would face fresh safety scrutiny, following concerns raised by vaccine skeptics and amid a broader review climate. Merck confirmed a meeting with FDA representatives and said it welcomed scientific dialogue, adding it is confident in Enflonsia’s safety. [16]
This kind of headline can matter for MRK stock even without any immediate label change because it injects uncertainty into:
- Demand trajectory during RSV season,
- Policy messaging around infant immunization tools,
- The likelihood of additional data requests or advisory discussions.
It’s not the same kind of risk as a negative trial readout—but markets often price “headline duration risk” quickly.
A quieter but practical catalyst: dividend timing hits Monday, Dec. 15
Merck’s board previously declared a $0.85 quarterly dividend, payable January 8, 2026, to shareholders of record as of the close of business on December 15, 2025. [17]
Because U.S. settlement rules shifted to T+1 (trade date + 1 business day), the practical takeaway for investors heading into the next session is simple:
- Buying on Monday, Dec. 15 may be too late to receive the dividend (depending on the official ex-dividend designation used by your broker/venue).
- This can create a mechanical price adjustment around the ex-dividend date that looks like weakness but is largely arithmetic.
For short-term traders, this can affect Monday’s tape. For long-term investors, it’s mostly a calendar footnote—unless you specifically manage around dividend capture or tax timing.
What to know “before the market open” on Dec. 13, 2025 (and realistically before the next open on Dec. 15)
Since Dec. 13 is a Saturday, the actionable setup is really about what could drive MRK between now and Monday morning (Dec. 15). Here’s the pre-open checklist that matters most.
1) Watch for follow-through on Winrevair in Europe
The CHMP opinion is not the final step—Merck said the European Commission decision is expected in Q1 2026. But investor attention tends to follow:
- Additional regulator commentary,
- Any updated timelines,
- Sell-side notes re-underwriting peak sales assumptions. [18]
2) Keep an eye on vaccine/RSV policy headlines
The Reuters reporting on RSV scrutiny is the kind of story that can resurface with incremental updates (requests for data, meeting schedules, public statements). Even if nothing changes clinically, the narrative can move sentiment. [19]
3) Dividend mechanics can distort Monday’s price action
With the record date on Dec. 15 and payment Jan. 8, the stock could see positioning that isn’t purely about fundamentals. [20]
4) Technical “storytelling” levels are obvious—and therefore influential
MRK closing above $100 is psychologically meaningful. Add in the well-defined reference points:
- 52-week high: $105.84
- 52-week low: $73.31 [21]
Traders tend to treat these as “decision points,” especially when news flow is active but not yet definitive.
5) Know the next major scheduled event: earnings
Nasdaq and Zacks calendars both point to Merck’s next earnings report around February 3, 2026 (estimate-based). [22]
In the meantime, Merck’s last formal outlook update (from Q3 results) said it expected 2025 worldwide sales of $64.5–$65.0 billion and non-GAAP EPS of $8.93–$8.98. [23]
That guidance range functions as the market’s “base case” until the company updates it again.
Bottom line for MRK heading into the weekend
Merck stock’s Dec. 12 strength looks tied to a classic pharma catalyst mix: regulatory momentum (Winrevair in Europe) plus a steady drumbeat of pipeline-focused analysis, all while the stock continues to trade under the shadow of Keytruda concentration and periodic policy-driven headline risk.
After-hours trading suggested no new shock after the close—more of a “market digested it” vibe than a “something big just broke” vibe. [24]
As always with large-cap pharma, the near-term tape is often less about one day’s candle and more about whether the next set of headlines reinforces (or complicates) the longer story: building enough durable products—Winrevair, vaccines, RSV tools, and late-stage candidates—to keep growth credible as Keytruda approaches 2028.
References
1. www.marketwatch.com, 2. www.zacks.com, 3. www.merck.com, 4. www.marketwatch.com, 5. www.marketwatch.com, 6. www.marketwatch.com, 7. www.merck.com, 8. www.merck.com, 9. www.merck.com, 10. uk.marketscreener.com, 11. www.marketwatch.com, 12. www.nasdaq.com, 13. www.nasdaq.com, 14. www.nasdaq.com, 15. www.nasdaq.com, 16. www.reuters.com, 17. www.merck.com, 18. www.merck.com, 19. www.reuters.com, 20. www.merck.com, 21. www.marketwatch.com, 22. www.nasdaq.com, 23. www.merck.com, 24. www.zacks.com
