Merck & Co., Inc. (NYSE: MRK) heads into the December 11, 2025 U.S. trading session with its share price stabilizing after a volatile stretch driven by earnings, pipeline news, and a major flu-drug acquisition. Here’s a structured look at what happened after the bell on December 10 – and what investors should know before the market opens on December 11.
How Merck Stock Traded on December 10, 2025
Merck shares rebounded modestly during the regular session on Wednesday, December 10. Multiple real-time feeds show the stock closing around $97.62, up roughly 0.7–0.8% on the day, after a sharp decline earlier in the week. [1]
After the closing bell, Merck’s stock moved only slightly in extended trading, changing hands in the high-$97 range (around $97.5), essentially flat versus the official close. [2]
That muted after-hours reaction is important: it suggests that no major new company-specific shock hit the tape after the closing bell. Instead, investors are still digesting developments from the last several weeks:
- The Q3 2025 earnings beat, paired with slightly narrowed full-year guidance. [3]
- A $9.2 billion acquisition of Cidara Therapeutics to bolster Merck’s respiratory and antiviral pipeline. [4]
- Ongoing focus on Keytruda’s future patent cliff and the company’s efforts to diversify revenue. [5]
Earlier in the week, Merck was one of the notable drags on the Dow Jones Industrial Average, with its shares dropping about 2.5–2.6% in Tuesday trading, contributing significantly to the index’s intraday decline. [6] Wednesday’s session and calm after-hours trading can be seen as a partial recovery from that pressure.
Pre-Market Signals for December 11, 2025
Pre-market indications ahead of the December 11 open show Merck trading very close to its Wednesday closing level:
- One major global quote service lists Merck’s “last pre-market” price around $97.6 per share, on relatively light volume (under 20,000 shares). [7]
Given Merck’s average daily volume near 9–10 million shares, pre-market trading is still thin and not always predictive of the regular session. [8]
Taken together, the after-hours and early pre-market action point to a steady, wait-and-see stance from investors going into Thursday’s open rather than a big sentiment swing overnight.
Fresh December 10 Analysis: Ratings, Options Activity, and Institutional Moves
1. Analyst views: Targets move higher, but tone is split
Several updated analyses and ratings around December 10 frame how Wall Street is thinking about Merck right now:
- Guggenheim recently lifted its price target on Merck from $104 to $122 and reiterated a Buy rating, explicitly citing probability-adjusted revenue from Winrevair (sotatercept), a pulmonary hypertension drug acquired via the Acceleron deal, as a key driver. [9]
- A December 10 review of analyst sentiment notes a mixed but generally constructive stance: one dataset (MarketBeat) shows a consensus rating of “Hold” with an average target around $107–108, while still highlighting multiple recent upgrades and positive calls. [10]
- Another aggregator (StockAnalysis) shows 15 covering analysts with an overall “Buy” rating and an average 12‑month price target of about $110.33, implying roughly 13% upside from the high‑$97 area. The target range runs from $85 (low) to $125 (high). [11]
So while different services label the consensus as either “Hold” or “Buy,” the targets cluster in the low‑$110s, with several top banks (Wells Fargo, Goldman Sachs, Scotiabank, Deutsche Bank) recently lifting or reaffirming targets between $100 and $125. [12]
2. Options market: Big-ticket traders target the $90–$110 band
On December 10, Benzinga’s options scanner flagged “unusual options activity” in Merck:
- 10 large options trades were detected, split across calls and puts.
- The whale-sized flow was roughly 50% bullish and 30% bearish, with notable trades stretching out to 2026 expirations.
- The implied price focus of these trades sits in a band between $90 and $110 over the next several months. [13]
This doesn’t tell investors which direction the stock must go; it does highlight that large, sophisticated players are actively positioning around MRK and expect meaningful movement within that range.
3. Institutional positioning: Active but still heavily invested
Two separate 13F-based pieces published on December 10 detail how institutional investors are adjusting their exposure:
- Intact Investment Management trimmed its MRK stake by 8.1%, selling 17,600 shares and retaining about 198,500 shares (roughly $15.7 million). [14]
- Diadema Partners LP initiated a new 20,000‑share position, worth roughly $1.6 million, and several smaller firms also added modestly. [15]
Despite these tweaks, both reports note that institutional investors collectively hold around 76% of Merck’s float, underlining that the stock remains deeply embedded in professional portfolios. [16]
The Fundamental Backdrop: Earnings, Dividend, and Valuation
Q3 2025 results: Beat on earnings, cautious on guidance
Merck’s third-quarter 2025 report, released on October 30, still looms large over the stock:
- Revenue: about $17.28–$17.3 billion, up roughly 4% year-on-year, and above analyst expectations of around $16.96 billion. [17]
- Adjusted EPS:$2.58, beating consensus by about $0.20–0.23 per share. [18]
- Keytruda: sales climbed roughly 10% to $8.1 billion, representing nearly half of total revenue. [19]
- Gardasil: HPV vaccine sales dropped in China due to paused shipments and weaker demand, though global sales still slightly beat Wall Street forecasts. [20]
Despite beating on both revenue and EPS, Merck narrowed the high end of its full-year sales guidance to $64.5–$65.0 billion and set non‑GAAP EPS guidance at $8.93–$8.98. [21] That conservative tone contributed to a negative initial market reaction in late October and still colors sentiment heading into year-end.
Dividend: A higher payout and a defensive yield
Merck has also leaned into its role as a dividend name:
- The company recently raised its quarterly dividend to $0.85 per share, or $3.40 annually. [22]
- At a share price just under $100, that works out to a dividend yield in the 3.4–3.5% range, notably higher than the broader large-cap healthcare median. [23]
- A December 10 dividend-focused piece highlighted Merck as a rebounding income stock, noting that the shares have rallied roughly 25% this quarter after earlier double-digit declines and that the company has delivered more than a decade of steady dividend growth. [24]
For investors looking at the stock before the December 11 open, Merck is therefore coming in not only as a pipeline story, but also as a yield and stability play.
Valuation: Below peers on earnings multiples
On basic valuation metrics, Merck still trades at a discount to many large-cap pharma peers:
- Trailing P/E is around 12–13, with forward P/E estimates in the low double digits. [25]
- The 52-week range runs from roughly $73 to $106, placing the current price in the upper-middle of that band, not far below the 2025 highs. [26]
- Merck’s beta of about 0.3 underscores the stock’s relatively low volatility versus the broader market. [27]
Heading into Thursday’s trade, that leaves Merck looking like a defensive large-cap with mid‑single-digit revenue growth, high-single-digit EPS growth, and an above-average dividend, priced at a discount to many growthier healthcare names.
Pipeline and Strategic Moves: Why the Long-Term Story Matters Today
Keytruda, patent cliffs, and a subcutaneous pivot
Merck’s flagship cancer drug Keytruda remains the central pillar of the investment story:
- Keytruda delivered more than $23 billion in sales over the first nine months of 2025 and continues to grow as it expands into earlier-stage cancers and new indications. [28]
- The company faces a major U.S. patent expiry for IV Keytruda in 2028, prompting intense focus on how it will offset a potential multi‑billion-dollar revenue cliff. [29]
- In response, Merck has rolled out Keytruda Qlex, a subcutaneous (SC) formulation approved in the U.S. in 2025, which carries its own patent protections and can be administered far more quickly than IV infusions. [30]
Analysts emphasize that a strong uptake of the SC formulation and new combination regimens (including an mRNA cancer vaccine collaboration with Moderna) will be critical to maintaining Keytruda’s cash flows beyond 2028. [31]
Winrevair, Capvaxive, Verona and beyond
Beyond Keytruda, several other assets featured prominently in recent analysis:
- Winrevair (sotatercept), the pulmonary arterial hypertension drug inherited from Acceleron, generated about $360 million in Q3 revenue and is being tested in additional patient populations. Positive Phase 2 CADENCE data underpinned Guggenheim’s higher $122 target. [32]
- Capvaxive, Merck’s new 21‑valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine, has been flagged as another long-term growth driver as it competes in the adult pneumonia-prevention market. [33]
- The acquisition of Verona Pharma for around $10 billion, aimed at securing rights to Ohtuvayre (a COPD therapy), further broadens Merck’s respiratory portfolio. [34]
Meanwhile, Merck is pushing into neuroscience and Alzheimer’s disease:
- In early December, Merck presented first-in-human data for MK‑2214 and MK‑1167 at CTAD 2025 and announced that MK‑2214 has received FDA Fast Track designation for Alzheimer’s disease. [35]
Cidara deal: A $9.2 billion bet on long-acting flu prevention
The most recent strategic headline is the planned acquisition of Cidara Therapeutics:
- On November 14, 2025, Merck announced a definitive agreement to acquire Cidara for $221.50 per share in cash, valuing the deal at roughly $9.2 billion. [36]
- The prize is CD388, a long‑acting antiviral designed to prevent seasonal influenza in high‑risk populations; it is currently in Phase 3 trials and has shown promising efficacy in earlier studies. [37]
- The transaction is expected to close in early 2026, pending regulatory and shareholder approvals. [38]
For today’s trading, the Cidara deal matters because it reinforces a central narrative: Merck is spending heavily now to fill the revenue gap that Keytruda’s patent cliff will eventually create, particularly in infectious disease and respiratory medicine.
Animal health: EXZOLT CATTLE-CA1 and diversification
A December 4 update from Merck’s animal health division highlighted EXZOLT CATTLE‑CA1, a fluralaner-based topical solution that has received conditional FDA approval:
- It is the first product of its class to treat and prevent New World screwworm infestations and control cattle fever tick. [39]
While smaller in absolute dollars than Keytruda or Gardasil, continued growth in animal health adds stability and diversification to the business mix.
Key Risks Still Hanging Over the Stock
Before the December 11 open, investors watching Merck should keep several lingering risks in mind:
- Gardasil weakness:
The Q3 update underscored sharp Gardasil sales declines in China, where Merck has halted new shipments while distributors work through excess inventory amid softer consumer demand. Gardasil revenue outside China also fell modestly, including in Japan. [40] - Keytruda concentration:
Keytruda now accounts for close to half of company revenue, and more than that of pharmaceutical sales. Any misstep in defending the franchise – whether from biosimilars, competing checkpoint inhibitors, pricing pressure, or slower uptake of the SC formulation – could hit earnings disproportionately. [41] - Regulatory and pricing pressure:
Like its large-pharma peers, Merck faces ongoing U.S. drug-pricing scrutiny and global reimbursement pressure, a factor repeatedly highlighted in coverage of its Q3 results and the Cidara deal. [42] - Execution on M&A:
Deals such as Verona and Cidara are strategically aligned with Merck’s need to rebuild future revenue, but they also raise integration and trial-risk questions – especially when top-line contributions depend on Phase 3 outcomes and future launches. [43]
Five Things to Watch for Merck (MRK) on December 11, 2025
Heading into today’s U.S. session, here are five practical checkpoints for anyone following MRK:
- Can MRK hold its uptrend above key moving averages?
Zacks recently noted that Merck has traded above both its 50‑day and 200‑day moving averages since early November, a classic sign of sustained upward momentum. [44] A decisive move below those levels would challenge the near‑term bullish technical picture. - Does early trading confirm the calm pre-market tone?
With pre-market prices hovering in the high‑$97 area and after-hours moves negligible, watch whether volume spikes and broader market moves pull MRK sharply higher or lower after the opening bell. [45] - Any new commentary on the Cidara or Verona deals?
Analyst notes or regulatory updates on these transactions could shift expectations for post‑Keytruda growth and influence the stock’s reaction around the $100 level. [46] - Dividend and income-investor interest
With a yield around the mid‑3% range and fresh December coverage positioning Merck as a core dividend holding for 2026, watch for whether income‑focused flows help support the stock on any intraday weakness. [47] - Sector and macro backdrop
Merck is part of a broader biopharma and dividend-stock rotation, fueled by extended valuations in tech and a surge in healthcare M&A. If risk sentiment in biotech, healthcare, or high-dividend names shifts sharply, MRK is likely to move with the group. [48]
Bottom Line
As of the morning of December 11, 2025, Merck’s stock story is less about dramatic overnight surprises and more about a slowly evolving balance:
- A solid core business led by Keytruda and a growing roster of new launches.
- A richer pipeline and M&A slate (Cidara, Verona, Capvaxive, Winrevair, Alzheimer’s assets).
- Visible risks from patent cliffs, vaccine volatility, and pricing pressure.
- A valuation and dividend profile that position MRK as both a growth‑transition and income name.
References
1. stockanalysis.com, 2. stockanalysis.com, 3. www.reuters.com, 4. www.merck.com, 5. www.reuters.com, 6. www.marketwatch.com, 7. www.investing.com, 8. www.investing.com, 9. www.insidermonkey.com, 10. www.marketbeat.com, 11. stockanalysis.com, 12. stockanalysis.com, 13. www.benzinga.com, 14. www.marketbeat.com, 15. www.marketbeat.com, 16. www.marketbeat.com, 17. www.reuters.com, 18. www.reuters.com, 19. www.reuters.com, 20. www.reuters.com, 21. www.reuters.com, 22. www.marketbeat.com, 23. finviz.com, 24. finviz.com, 25. www.marketbeat.com, 26. www.marketwatch.com, 27. www.marketbeat.com, 28. www.nasdaq.com, 29. www.reuters.com, 30. www.nasdaq.com, 31. www.nasdaq.com, 32. www.reuters.com, 33. www.nasdaq.com, 34. www.gurufocus.com, 35. www.stocktitan.net, 36. www.merck.com, 37. www.biopharmadive.com, 38. www.cooley.com, 39. www.insidermonkey.com, 40. www.reuters.com, 41. www.reuters.com, 42. www.reuters.com, 43. www.reuters.com, 44. www.nasdaq.com, 45. stockanalysis.com, 46. www.marketwatch.com, 47. finviz.com, 48. www.ft.com
