Merck & Co., Inc. (NYSE: MRK) stock was among the biggest drags on the Dow Jones Industrial Average in Tuesday’s session (December 16, 2025), with shares trading lower as investors weighed broad market pressure alongside a fast-moving set of company-specific catalysts—ranging from regulatory momentum for Winrevair to ongoing efforts to protect Keytruda ahead of looming patent headwinds. [1]
As of the latest trade at 16:41 UTC, Merck shares were $98.05, down 2.21% on the day, after trading between $96.85 and $100.49.
Merck stock price action on Dec. 16: a Dow-weighted drop with no single headline
Merck’s decline mattered more than usual for index watchers because the Dow is price-weighted. MarketWatch flagged Merck (alongside IBM) as a key driver of the Dow’s roughly 250-point slide, citing Merck down about $3.24 (around 3.2%) at one point during the session. [2]
A separate Dow-focused market note from Nasdaq also highlighted MRK as the worst-performing Dow component early Tuesday, with the stock down around 1.9% at the time and about 1.1% lower year-to-date in that snapshot. [3]
What this means for investors: today’s move looks more like a “macro + positioning” day than a single breaking-company-news shock. But the reason Merck remains a market-moving name is structural: it’s still transitioning from an era dominated by Keytruda into a broader portfolio story—one that the market regularly reprices on incremental pipeline and policy updates.
The key Merck headlines investors are digesting heading into year-end
Even if today’s selloff isn’t pinned to one press release, several developments are shaping how analysts and long-term holders frame MRK stock into 2026.
1) Winrevair gets Europe momentum as Merck pushes beyond its original PAH label
On December 12, Merck announced that the European Medicines Agency’s CHMP recommended approval of an expanded indication for WINREVAIR (sotatercept) in pulmonary arterial hypertension (PAH), potentially broadening use to WHO Functional Class II, III, and IV based on the Phase 3 ZENITH study. Merck said a European Commission decision is expected in Q1 2026. [4]
This matters because Winrevair is widely viewed as a central pillar of Merck’s growth plan in a world where Keytruda faces biosimilar risk later in the decade. Pipeline expansion that broadens the addressable population can change the slope of that growth curve, which is exactly what investors want to see.
2) Keytruda’s “defense strategy” keeps advancing—especially subcutaneous delivery
One of Merck’s most important strategic moves in 2025 was getting the FDA to approve a subcutaneous version of Keytruda (branded Keytruda Qlex), designed to be administered under the skin rather than via IV infusion.
Reuters reported that the injection can be given in as little as 1–2 minutes (depending on dose) versus an IV infusion that typically takes about 30 minutes, and that Merck positioned the new formulation as part of its plan to defend share as biosimilar competition looms. [5]
Merck has also been pushing Keytruda delivery innovation internationally; the company announced European Commission approval of subcutaneous Keytruda for adult indications in the EU in November. [6]
Why this matters for MRK stock: delivery convenience can be a real-world moat—if payers, regulators, and clinical guidelines treat the new formulation favorably and if it doesn’t get pulled into the same pricing pressures as the legacy product.
3) Merck’s Q3 results underscored a familiar dynamic: Keytruda strength offsets Gardasil weakness
Merck’s third-quarter 2025 results captured the “two-speed” story investors have been debating all year.
Reuters reported Q3 revenue of $17.28 billion and adjusted EPS of $2.58, with Keytruda sales up 10% to $8.1 billion—over 47% of total revenue—helping offset a continued drop in Gardasil sales tied to China demand and shipping dynamics. Merck also narrowed its full-year revenue forecast to $64.5–$65.0 billion and raised adjusted EPS guidance to $8.93–$8.98. [7]
Earlier in 2025, Merck extended the pause of Gardasil shipments to China until at least the end of 2025, and paired that decision with a cost-cutting plan targeting $3 billion in annual savings by 2027. [8]
4) M&A remains part of the “replace Keytruda” playbook: Verona + Cidara
Merck has been active on the deal front, a signal that management is not waiting passively for the patent cliff.
- Verona Pharma: Reuters reported in July that Merck agreed to buy Verona for about $10 billion, boosting Merck’s respiratory footprint as it prepares for Keytruda’s patent expiry. [9]
- Cidara Therapeutics: Reuters reported that Merck expects a commercial opportunity exceeding $5 billion from Cidara’s experimental flu drug CD388, and said the deal is expected to close in Q1 2026 (with an anticipated earnings headwind of roughly 30 cents per share in the first 12 months after close). [10]
These acquisitions are part of a broader attempt to diversify revenue streams—especially into areas like cardio-pulmonary and infectious disease prevention—where Merck believes it can build durable franchises.
5) Dividend update: Merck’s next payout and the recent record date
Merck also remains a core “income + pharma defensiveness” holding for many portfolios.
A company release published November 18 said Merck’s board declared a $0.85 quarterly dividend for Q1 2026, payable January 8, 2026 to shareholders of record at the close of business on December 15, 2025. [11]
Today’s smaller headlines: Fast Track designation involving Keytruda and trader positioning
Not all “MRK-adjacent” headlines are Merck-led, but they still feed the narrative.
- Fast Track + Keytruda combo: Adagene announced an FDA Fast Track designation involving its therapy in combination with Keytruda for a specific colorectal cancer population. [12]
- Options/positioning chatter: Some market commentary outlets pointed to modestly bearish options sentiment and relatively low implied volatility in recent sessions—more a temperature check than a thesis-changer. [13]
Analyst forecasts for Merck stock: where Wall Street sees MRK heading from here
Despite the volatility, aggregated sell-side forecasts remain constructive overall.
Consensus price targets cluster around ~$108–$110
According to StockAnalysis (as of Dec. 16), covering analysts have an average MRK price target of $109.67 with a consensus rating of Buy and a target range from $85 to $125. [14]
MarketBeat’s aggregated view is similar, listing an average target around $108 (with a wider high/low range depending on firm). [15]
Recent target changes show a clear theme: Winrevair matters, but Keytruda risk still caps enthusiasm
StockAnalysis’ “latest forecasts” list shows several notable December updates, including:
- BofA Securities: target raised $105 → $120 (Dec. 15)
- Morgan Stanley: target raised $100 → $102 (Dec. 12)
- Scotiabank: target raised $105 → $120 (Dec. 4) [16]
Even in bullish notes, the consistent subtext is that Merck must prove it can stack enough growth engines (Winrevair expansion, new launches, deal pipeline) to reduce investor dependence on Keytruda cash flows.
The big strategic issue behind MRK stock: Keytruda concentration, patents, and U.S. pricing policy
A lot of Merck’s valuation debate comes down to how quickly the company can reshape its revenue mix before multiple pressures arrive at once.
Keytruda is still enormous—and policy timelines matter
Reuters reported in February that Merck expected Keytruda to be selected in 2026 for U.S. government price setting, with pricing becoming effective on January 1, 2028, and noted that Keytruda brought in $29.48 billion in 2024 sales, representing 46% of Merck’s total sales that year. [17]
But policy has been evolving. KFF’s analysis of changes in a new tax and budget law said those changes are expected to delay the selection of Keytruda (and Opdivo) for negotiation by at least one year. [18]
Reuters has also reported on the budget impact of expanded orphan-drug-related exemptions and shifting eligibility for blockbuster cancer medicines, underscoring that the policy framework remains a live variable—one that can influence the timing and severity of revenue compression. [19]
What to watch next: the MRK stock checklist for early 2026
Here are the catalysts most likely to move Merck stock over the next several months:
- European Commission decision on Winrevair label expansion (expected Q1 2026) [20]
- Cidara deal closing window (expected Q1 2026) and next disclosures around CD388’s launch planning and trial progress [21]
- Q4 2025 earnings (Feb. 3, 2026)—Merck has listed a Q4 2025 earnings call for that date, which will likely update guidance, capital allocation priorities, and the cadence of the Gardasil recovery plan. [22]
- Keytruda Qlex rollout metrics—watch for adoption rates and payer dynamics, since Merck has framed subcutaneous delivery as a key differentiation lever. [23]
- Dividend payment (Jan. 8, 2026) and any future capital return signals (buybacks, payout policy) [24]
Bottom line for Merck stock on Dec. 16, 2025
Merck (MRK) is ending 2025 with a familiar split screen:
- Near-term support: strong Keytruda performance, a shareholder-friendly dividend profile, and meaningful pipeline/label momentum for Winrevair. [25]
- Overhangs that won’t go away: policy-driven pricing uncertainty and the inevitable reality that Keytruda remains a very large portion of Merck’s earnings power—making diversification progress (organic and via M&A) the market’s core scoreboard. [26]
References
1. www.marketwatch.com, 2. www.marketwatch.com, 3. www.nasdaq.com, 4. www.nasdaq.com, 5. www.reuters.com, 6. www.merck.com, 7. www.reuters.com, 8. www.reuters.com, 9. www.reuters.com, 10. www.reuters.com, 11. www.nasdaq.com, 12. finance.yahoo.com, 13. www.gurufocus.com, 14. stockanalysis.com, 15. www.marketbeat.com, 16. stockanalysis.com, 17. www.reuters.com, 18. www.kff.org, 19. www.reuters.com, 20. www.nasdaq.com, 21. www.reuters.com, 22. www.merck.com, 23. www.reuters.com, 24. www.nasdaq.com, 25. www.reuters.com, 26. www.reuters.com
