Merck & Co., Inc. (NYSE: MRK) is back in the market’s spotlight this Tuesday, with the pharmaceutical giant’s shares extending a powerful rally fuelled by fresh regulatory wins and a major Wall Street upgrade.
As of early-afternoon trading on 25 November 2025, Merck stock is changing hands around $104–$105, up roughly 4% on the day and trading just below its 52‑week high near $105.07. [1] The move makes Merck one of the biggest blue-chip gainers, helping drive the Dow Jones Industrial Average higher by more than 400 points and contributing meaningfully to gains in the S&P 500 as well. [2]
Behind today’s surge: a “game‑changing” FDA approval for Keytruda-based therapy in bladder cancer, a Wells Fargo upgrade to Overweight with a $125 price target, bullish commentary from other major brokers, and ongoing optimism around Merck’s oncology and cardiopulmonary pipeline. [3]
Merck stock today: MRK leads blue chips higher
- Price: about $104–$105 intraday, up around 4% versus Monday’s close near $100.40. [4]
- 52‑week range: roughly $73.31 – $105.07, putting today’s trade within a dollar of the stock’s year high. [5]
- Market cap: around $250 billion, with a trailing P/E of ~15.5 and PEG ratio near 0.95, indicating modest valuation against expected growth. [6]
- Balance sheet: current ratio ~1.4, quick ratio ~1.2, and debt‑to‑equity around 0.7, highlighting a solid liquidity profile and manageable leverage. [7]
- Trading activity: more than 11 million shares have already changed hands today, signalling strong investor interest versus typical volume. [8]
Merck’s strength is also visible at the index level. MarketWatch data show the stock adding nearly 4% and contributing roughly 37 points to the Dow’s 400‑plus point gain, while QuiverQuant notes that MRK’s 3–4% rise is helping lift the S&P 500 ETF (SPY) by about 0.2%. [9]
Today’s jump builds on Monday’s rally, when Merck already gained about 4% after the Wells Fargo upgrade, and on Friday’s move following the FDA’s latest Keytruda decision. [10]
Key catalyst #1: FDA approval for Keytruda + Padcev in bladder cancer
The most important fundamental driver behind the latest leg higher is the U.S. Food and Drug Administration’s approval of Merck’s flagship immunotherapy Keytruda — and its new subcutaneous formulation Keytruda Qlex — in combination with the antibody‑drug conjugate Padcev (developed by Astellas and Pfizer) for certain bladder cancer patients.
On 21 November 2025, the FDA approved pembrolizumab (Keytruda) or pembrolizumab and berahyaluronidase alfa‑pmph (Keytruda Qlex) together with enfortumab vedotin‑ejfv (Padcev) as neoadjuvant and adjuvant treatment for adults with muscle‑invasive bladder cancer (MIBC) who are ineligible for cisplatin‑based chemotherapy. [11]
Merck and Pfizer highlight several reasons this matters:
- The regimen is the first and only approved perioperative PD‑1 inhibitor plus ADC combination for this high‑risk patient group. [12]
- Phase 3 EV‑303 data showed around a 60% reduction in the risk of disease recurrence, progression or death, and a 50% reduction in the risk of death, versus surgery alone. [13]
- The indication complements Keytruda’s already broad cancer label and deepens Merck’s foothold in urologic oncology.
Crucially for investors, this approval sits on top of Merck’s broader Keytruda life‑cycle management strategy:
- In September 2025, the FDA cleared Keytruda Qlex, a subcutaneous formulation that can be given in 1–2 minutes rather than a 30‑minute IV infusion, improving convenience and clinic throughput. [14]
- The European Commission has also approved subcutaneous Keytruda for all adult indications in the EU, broadening the global addressable market for the injectable formulation. [15]
Together, today’s stock move reflects growing confidence that Keytruda’s franchise can remain a powerhouse even as biosimilar competition approaches later in the decade, especially if subcutaneous delivery and new combinations drive deeper and longer‑lasting adoption.
Key catalyst #2: Wells Fargo upgrade and bullish Street sentiment
Monday’s big prelude to today’s rally was Wells Fargo’s upgrade of Merck:
- The bank lifted its rating from “Equal Weight” to “Overweight” and raised its price target from $90 to $125, implying roughly 25–30% upside from levels just before the upgrade. [16]
- Analyst Mohit Bansal argued that, thanks to recent business development, new launches and pipeline progress, Merck can fill most of the revenue gap expected when Keytruda loses exclusivity in the early 2030s. [17]
- Wells Fargo describes the next 12–18 months as a “catalyst‑rich” period with multiple data readouts across oncology and cardiometabolic programs. [18]
The Wells upgrade comes on top of BofA Securities’ more measured but still bullish stance:
- On 17 November 2025, BofA analyst Tim Andersonraised his price target to $105 from $98 and reiterated a Buy rating, citing the acquisition of Cidara Therapeutics and its CD388 flu prophylaxis asset as a “reasonable” deal that strengthens Merck’s infectious disease franchise. [19]
According to MarketBeat and other aggregators:
- Merck now carries a “Moderate Buy” consensus, with an average target around $107 based on a mix of Buy, Hold and a small number of Sell ratings. [20]
- Some analysts remain cautious on valuation and the long‑term Keytruda patent cliff, but the trend over the last few weeks has been toward upgrades and target hikes rather than downgrades.
From a valuation perspective, Trefis emphasises that Merck combines “high margins at a discounted price”: their work shows a Price‑to‑Sales ratio of about 3.9 (slightly above the S&P 500 median but cheaper than many high‑growth peers) and a trailing P/E near 13.2, with operating margins in the mid‑30% range. [21]
Trefis’ model pegs fair value around $109 per share, which, after today’s jump into the mid‑$104s, implies only modest additional upside — but still underscores that the rally has been driven more by improving fundamentals than by pure multiple expansion. [22]
Fundamentals under the hood: Q3 beat, guidance and new growth engines
Merck’s current rally rests on solid third‑quarter 2025 results, reported on 30 October:
- Q3 2025 revenue: about $17.3 billion, up roughly 4% year‑over‑year and ahead of Wall Street estimates near $17.0 billion. [23]
- Non‑GAAP EPS:$2.58, beating the consensus estimate of $2.36 and rising sharply from $1.57 in the prior‑year quarter. [24]
- Net margin: about 25–26%, with return on equity above 40%, highlighting Merck’s strong profitability engine. [25]
Management also narrowed and raised its full‑year outlook:
- 2025 revenue guidance:$64.5–$65.0 billion.
- Non‑GAAP EPS guidance:$8.93–$8.98, versus prior expectations that were lower and wider. [26]
Within that top line, several products stand out:
- Keytruda remains the engine, with Q3 sales up around 10% to roughly $8.1 billion, driven by new indications and early uptake of subcutaneous formulations. [27]
- Winrevair, a treatment for pulmonary arterial hypertension, generated about $360 million in Q3 sales and is already on a >$1 billion annual run‑rate, backed by promising Phase 2 CADENCE data in heart‑failure‑related pulmonary hypertension (CpcPH). [28]
- Capvaxive, a newer pneumococcal vaccine, delivered approximately $244 million in Q3 revenue, highlighting the potential for vaccine‑driven growth beyond Gardasil. [29]
- The Animal Health division posted around $1.6 billion in sales, up about 9% year‑over‑year, supported by higher pet and livestock spending. [30]
On the strategic front:
- Merck recently completed the acquisition of Verona Pharma, adding Ohtuvayre, a first‑in‑class COPD maintenance therapy, to its respiratory portfolio. [31]
- A broader restructuring program is targeting roughly $1.7 billion in annual cost savings, which Trefis and other analysts see as a key support for margins in the back half of the decade. [32]
Taken together, these factors help explain why multiple research houses are comfortable modelling mid‑single‑digit revenue growth and high‑teens to 20%+ operating margins even after factoring in future competition.
Pipeline momentum: hematology, ADCs and beyond
Beyond Keytruda, investors are increasingly focused on Merck’s next wave of oncology and hematology assets.
On 24 November 2025, Merck announced that more than 20 abstracts from its hematology pipeline will be presented at the ASH 2025 Annual Meeting, covering assets such as: [33]
- MK‑1045, a CD19xCD3 T‑cell engager for B‑cell leukemias and lymphomas.
- Bomedemstat (MK‑3543), an LSD1 inhibitor in Phase 2 and Phase 3 programs for polycythemia vera and essential thrombocythemia.
- Nemtabrutinib (MK‑1026), a non‑covalent BTK inhibitor targeting patients who fail or relapse on first‑generation BTK drugs.
- Zilovertamab vedotin (MK‑2140), an investigational antibody‑drug conjugate targeting ROR1 for various B‑cell malignancies.
In parallel, the Phase 2 CADENCE trial of Winrevair showed a statistically significant reduction in pulmonary vascular resistance over 24 weeks in patients with combined post‑ and precapillary pulmonary hypertension related to heart failure with preserved ejection fraction (HFpEF), with a safety profile consistent with prior data. Merck plans to move into Phase 3 based on these results. [34]
Analysts view this cluster of programs — along with newer collaborations and acquisitions like Cidara’s influenza candidate CD388 — as helping to de‑risk Merck’s long‑term revenue beyond Keytruda, aligning with Wells Fargo’s thesis of a “future beyond Keytruda.” [35]
Institutional flows and dividend strength
Today also brought a flurry of 13F‑driven headlines around Merck:
- Waterloo Capital L.P. increased its MRK position by 133% in Q2, to 7,140 shares worth about $565,000. [36]
- CreativeOne Wealth LLC boosted its stake by 7% to over 41,000 shares, valued at around $3.26 million. [37]
- Vestor Capital LLC, by contrast, cut its holdings by over 90%, selling 5,350 shares and ending the quarter with just 523 shares worth around $41,000. [38]
Overall, around three‑quarters of Merck’s shares are held by institutions, indicating strong interest from pension funds, mutual funds and other large investors. [39]
Merck also continues to lean into its income appeal:
- The company recently raised its quarterly dividend from $0.81 to $0.85 per share, a roughly 3.4% forward yield at today’s price and a payout ratio under 45%. [40]
- The next dividend is scheduled to be paid in early January 2026 to shareholders of record in mid‑December, reinforcing Merck’s long-standing record of consistent dividend growth. [41]
For yield‑focused investors, this combination of defensive cash flows, a rising dividend and relatively low beta (~0.3–0.4) makes MRK stand out among large‑cap healthcare names. [42]
What could come next — and key risks to watch
Despite today’s enthusiasm, Merck is not risk‑free, and the stock’s run to near all‑time highs raises important questions for prospective buyers.
Key things to watch:
- Keytruda LOE (loss of exclusivity): Patent expiries in the late 2020s/early 2030s remain the single biggest structural risk. The recent approvals and pipeline readouts mitigate, but do not eliminate, that overhang. [43]
- Regulatory and pricing pressure: Global debates around drug pricing — including negotiations between the U.S. and U.K. on cross‑border price frameworks — could pressure margins across the sector, Merck included. [44]
- Clinical and competitive risk: New oncology and cardiopulmonary assets must still clear late‑stage trials and face competition from other big pharma players in ADCs, BTK inhibitors and respiratory therapies. [45]
- Valuation after the rally: After a multi‑session surge, Merck now trades only slightly below some fair‑value estimates (e.g., Trefis at $109, Street averages around $105–$107), even as Wells Fargo and select brokers see room to $125. [46]
For existing shareholders, the current setup reinforces the long‑term case built on oncology leadership, a broadening pipeline and a healthy dividend. For new investors, the decision may come down to time horizon and risk tolerance: near‑term momentum is strong, but pullbacks are always possible after such rapid gains.
Today’s Merck headlines at a glance (25 November 2025)
News published today and directly tied to Merck’s share price and outlook includes:
- Kalkine Media: Overview of Merck’s role in the healthcare sector as shares edge higher. [47]
- TradingView / StockStory & Finviz: “Stocks making big moves yesterday” highlighting Merck’s ~4% Monday surge after the Wells Fargo upgrade. [48]
- MarketBeat (multiple pieces): Institutional moves involving Waterloo Capital, CreativeOne Wealth and Vestor Capital, plus recaps of Merck’s Q3 beat, guidance and dividend increase. [49]
- InsiderMonkey: Lists Merck as one of the “15 Best Stocks to Buy for the Medium Term”, citing revenue growth, Keytruda momentum and new launches like Winrevair and Capvaxive. [50]
- Trefis: “Merck Stock Now 0.8% Cheaper, Time To Buy,” emphasising high margins, modest valuation and a restructuring program aimed at $1.7 billion in annual cost savings. [51]
- MarketWatch & QuiverQuant: Coverage of Merck as a leading contributor to today’s Dow and SPY gains. [52]
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