New York, Jan 10, 2026, 14:37 EST — Market closed
- Merck shares slipped 0.4% Friday, ending at $110.53.
- Merck is reportedly negotiating to acquire Revolution Medicines in a transaction estimated between $28 billion and $32 billion.
- Investors are turning their attention to Merck’s appearance at the J.P. Morgan Healthcare Conference on Jan. 12 and the U.S. inflation report set for Jan. 13.
Merck & Co (MRK) closed Friday 0.4% lower at $110.53 following reports that the pharmaceutical giant is negotiating to acquire cancer drug developer Revolution Medicines in a deal valued between $28 billion and $32 billion. 1
Timing is crucial. As Merck faces patent losses on its blockbuster cancer drug Keytruda later this decade, it’s searching for new growth drivers. A deal of this magnitude would sharply indicate just how aggressive the company intends to get.
The week also arrives with investors gearing up for policy turbulence tied to vaccines and a surge of deal talk as executives and bankers converge in San Francisco.
The Financial Times reported that talks are ongoing, with no final deal yet and the possibility of another bidder stepping in. Following the news, Revolution shares surged in after-hours trading.
Revolution’s draw lies in its experimental cancer drug daraxonrasib, which targets multiple RAS mutations — genetic culprits found in key tumors like pancreatic, lung, and colorectal cancers. Merck’s move comes amid a growing “patent cliff” in big pharma, with oncology standing out as one of the rare fields where firms are ready to pay a premium for late-stage assets.
Daraxonrasib received an FDA voucher through the Commissioner’s National Priority Voucher pilot program, a fast-track route designed to speed up review times after an application is submitted.
Merck faced another blow this week as federal health officials reclassified several childhood vaccines from “universally recommended” to “shared clinical decision-making.” This shift means parents must now discuss these vaccines with clinicians instead of following a routine, broad recommendation. Merck stressed that “Clear, evidence-based recommendations remain essential” to safeguard kids and teens. Bernstein analysts put the potential revenue hit linked to Merck’s RotaTeq and Gardasil at around $2 billion annually. 2
Despite mixed signals, some Wall Street voices are bullish. Wolfe Research’s Alexandria Hammond upgraded Merck to Outperform, setting a $135 target. She described the company’s five-year revenue bridge as “attractive” and said Merck appears “poised for a breakout.” 3
Merck’s next key event is Monday. CEO Robert Davis and research chief Dr. Dean Y. Li will take part in a fireside chat at the 44th Annual J.P. Morgan Healthcare Conference on Jan. 12 at 4:30 p.m. PST / 7:30 p.m. EST, the company said. 4
The conference is where deal discussions often solidify into term sheets—or just as easily fall apart. “We have seen deals get approved… that could have had more regulatory risk in the past,” Jeremy Meilman, JPMorgan’s global co-head of healthcare investment banking, told Reuters, reflecting on the outlook for megamergers in 2026. 5
Macro factors are also in play. December 2025 U.S. CPI drops Tuesday, Jan. 13 at 8:30 a.m. ET, with producer price data set for Wednesday, Jan. 14. These reports could swing Treasury yields and, in turn, hit dividend-focused defensive sectors like big pharma. 6
Investors have a firm date to watch: Merck will report its fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 sales and earnings on Feb. 3.
Traders are eyeing Friday’s range, which spanned about $110 at the low end up to the low-$112s, as they await further updates on Revolution and watch for any official comments from Merck.
Yet the upside scenario carries risks. A $28 billion to $32 billion price tag for a pre-commercial biotech raises red flags around valuation discipline and clinical-trial uncertainty. If critical data falls short, it could spook investors. On top of that, ongoing vaccine policy debates add further pressure on sentiment toward Merck’s vaccine business.
Monday’s Jan. 12 fireside chat at the J.P. Morgan conference is the next key event. Investors will be tuning in closely for new insights on M&A appetite and updates on the post-Keytruda strategy.
