As of 2:34 a.m. ET in New York on Saturday, December 27, 2025, U.S. stock markets are closed for the weekend.
Merck & Co., Inc. (NYSE: MRK) was last quoted around $106.78, up about 0.33% versus its prior close, based on the latest available pricing feed.
With year-end trading under way and liquidity often thinner around the holidays, Merck is heading into the next session with an unusually packed headline stack: policy-driven drug pricing news, FDA review acceleration for two experimental therapies, and portfolio diversification via M&A—all against the backdrop of investors constantly re-litigating the same big question: how Merck replaces Keytruda’s eventual loss of exclusivity later this decade.
The current market backdrop: late-December calm, near-record levels—and thin volume
Merck is trading into a market that just finished a quiet post-holiday session near all-time highs. On Friday, December 26, U.S. stocks ended nearly flat in light volume, with the S&P 500 down 0.03% and the Nasdaq down 0.09%, as traders navigated the seasonally thin “Santa Claus rally” window. [1]
Ryan Detrick, chief market strategist at Carson Group, framed the mood as a pause after a strong run—more “catching our breath” than any major shift in conviction. [2]
For Merck investors, this matters because thin, late-December conditions can amplify single-stock moves—especially when upgrades, policy headlines, or biotech catalysts hit the tape.
Why Merck stock is in the spotlight right now
Merck’s late-2025 news flow clusters into three investor-relevant buckets:
- Drug pricing and access policy (potential margin implications, but also reduced tariff uncertainty in some frameworks)
- Pipeline acceleration (FDA “National Priority Voucher” actions that can compress timelines dramatically)
- Business development and diversification (notably the Cidara deal and oncology pipeline funding)
Let’s walk through each—because MRK’s near-term trading tends to react less to “vibes” and more to which narrative is winning this week.
1) Drug pricing headline: Merck joins TrumpRx-linked deals; Januvia/Januvia-family discounts highlighted
On December 19, Reuters reported that the Trump administration and nine pharmaceutical companies announced deals to cut prices on many drugs sold to Medicaid and to offer select medicines via a direct-to-consumer approach tied to TrumpRx.gov. Merck was among the participating companies. [3]
In that report, Merck said it would sell its diabetes drugs Januvia, Janumet, and Janumet XR directly to U.S. consumers at about 70% off list prices, and that enlicitide (if approved) could also be offered via direct-to-consumer channels. [4]
Merck also published its own statement describing an agreement framework focused on affordability and access, again calling out the ~70% off list price cash pricing for Januvia/Janumet/Janumet XR for eligible patients, and linking potential future inclusion of enlicitide after FDA approval. [5]
How investors tend to read this:
- Policy risk doesn’t vanish, but clarity can be tradable. Reuters quoted Bernstein analyst Courtney Breen describing the deals as headline-friendly collaborations that may minimize step-change impacts to economics (with company-by-company differences). [6]
- Direct-to-consumer discounts may be more volume- and perception-driven than immediately margin-dilutive—depending on eligibility, uptake, payer behavior, and how “list vs. net” math plays out across channels.
For Merck specifically, the diabetes products mentioned are also approaching generic competition (per Reuters’ framing), which can change how investors model the trade-off between near-term access initiatives and longer-term erosion. [7]
2) FDA fast-track catalyst: national priority vouchers for enlicitide and sac-TMT
FDA grants two National Priority Vouchers—what it is, why it matters
On December 19, the U.S. Food and Drug Administration announced it awarded national priority vouchers under the Commissioner’s National Priority Voucher (CNPV) pilot program to two investigational products:
- Enlicitide decanoate — an oral PCSK9 inhibitor intended to lower LDL cholesterol
- Sacituzumab tirumotecan — a TROP2-directed antibody-drug conjugate (ADC) [8]
FDA Commissioner Marty Makary, M.D., M.P.H. explicitly tied the program to affordability and access goals in the agency’s announcement. [9]
The CNPV pilot is designed to compress review timelines dramatically: the FDA describes it as an opportunity to reduce application review times from 10–12 months to 1–2 months, with enhanced communications and multidisciplinary evaluation. [10]
Enlicitide: Merck’s bid for a first-in-class oral PCSK9 option
Merck has been positioning enlicitide as a potential first FDA-approved oral PCSK9 inhibitor, aiming to deliver LDL-lowering effects in a daily pill form (a key distinction vs. existing injectable PCSK9 inhibitors). [11]
From an equity story standpoint, enlicitide is not just “another cardio asset”—it’s an attempt to address a real-world adoption gap: injectable PCSK9 drugs work, but aren’t used as widely as many clinicians expected, partly due to access and practical friction. Merck’s own policy statement also leaned into this narrative, arguing that a pill could broaden use if approved and made affordable. [12]
sac-TMT: oncology optionality, funded with creative financing
Sacituzumab tirumotecan (sac‑TMT) is an ADC program that Merck has been building out partly through business development and structured funding.
Reuters previously reported Merck secured $700 million in funding from Blackstone Life Sciences to support sac‑TMT development, with Blackstone receiving royalties if the therapy gains U.S. approval, while Merck retains control over development and commercialization. [13]
Merck’s own announcement described the arrangement as strategic financing to advance the asset while progressing its broader pipeline. [14]
Investor takeaway: ADCs are a competitive arms race in oncology, but the combination of (a) accelerated review mechanics via CNPV and (b) external financing reduces “timeline” and “capital allocation” friction—two things equity markets obsess over, especially when a company is trying to diversify ahead of a patent cliff.
3) Portfolio diversification: Merck’s $9.2B Cidara deal targets flu prevention beyond vaccines
Merck is also leaning hard into infectious disease and respiratory as complementary growth engines.
Reuters reported Merck agreed to acquire Cidara Therapeutics in a roughly $9.2 billion deal centered on CD388, a long-acting, non-vaccine antiviral designed for season-long flu protection, with the acquisition expected to close in Q1 2026. [15]
Merck’s press release adds detail that matters for modeling:
- The deal is expected to close in the first quarter of 2026 (subject to conditions). [16]
- CD388 is positioned as not a vaccine and not dependent on immune response, aiming to protect high-risk people regardless of immune status. [17]
- Merck notes the Phase 3 ANCHOR study has a target enrollment of 6,000 participants, with an interim analysis expected in Q1 2026. [18]
From a stock narrative perspective, CD388 is the kind of asset investors like for a very specific reason: it’s an attempt to create a new category of seasonal prevention that could sit alongside (not merely compete with) vaccines and standard antivirals.
Barron’s coverage of the deal emphasized the all-cash structure and highlighted Merck leadership framing influenza as a major global health issue, with Merck Research Laboratories’ Dean Y. Li and CEO Robert M. Davis cited in the context of strategic expansion. [19]
The core Merck earnings engine: Keytruda growth, Gardasil overhang—and management’s own guideposts
Even with all the shiny pipeline headlines, Merck’s financial center of gravity remains Keytruda.
In its Q3 reporting, Reuters highlighted that Keytruda growth helped offset weakness in Gardasil (particularly tied to China), while the company adjusted the high end of its revenue outlook. [20]
Merck CFO Caroline Litchfield told Reuters the company expected continued Keytruda growth, but at a slower pace as some indications approach peak penetration, alongside ex-U.S. pricing headwinds. [21]
Reuters also reported Merck’s full-year outlook at the time:
- Revenue expected in a $64.5B to $65.0B range (per that update)
- Full-year earnings expected at $8.93 to $8.98 per share (adjusted, per Reuters) [22]
Meanwhile, the Gardasil-in-China storyline remains an important sensitivity. Reuters reported earlier in 2025 that Merck extended a pause on China Gardasil shipments through at least the end of 2025 due to weak demand. [23]
Forecasts and analyst outlook: price targets move higher, but the Keytruda cliff still sets the debate terms
BMO turns more bullish: $130 target and a “replace Keytruda” thesis
One of the most market-moving late-December notes came from BMO Capital Markets, which upgraded Merck to Outperform and raised its price target to $130.
Investing.com summarized BMO’s thesis as growing confidence that Merck can sustain growth beyond Keytruda’s loss of exclusivity, pointing to catalysts in 2026 and stronger commercial performance from newer products such as Welireg and Reblozyl, among others. [24]
Critically, BMO argued that—even with Keytruda’s 2028 LOE representing a massive patent cliff—Merck could replace a large portion of peak sales over time via internal development and business development. [25]
BofA raises target to $120; “pipeline has rounded out”
BofA also raised its Merck price target to $120 from $105 and maintained a Buy rating, according to TheFly’s report hosted by TipRanks. [26]
“Quality stock” framing shows up in mainstream commentary
Barron’s recently highlighted a broader market theme: in a rally driven by higher-beta names, some strategists have pointed toward discounted “quality” companies with resilient cash flow profiles—explicitly including Merck in that bucket. [27]
How to read the Street mix:
Merck can attract bullish targets when the market believes (a) the pipeline is real, (b) timelines are accelerating, and (c) diversification deals aren’t overpaying. But the stock can still compress if investors feel Keytruda replacement math is too optimistic or policy risk grows teeth.
Shareholder returns: Merck raised its dividend to $0.85; here’s the calendar investors track
Merck announced on November 18, 2025 that its board declared a quarterly dividend of $0.85 per share for Q1 2026, payable January 8, 2026 to shareholders of record as of December 15, 2025. [28]
That matters for two reasons:
- It’s a tangible signal of confidence in cash generation (even while funding M&A and pipeline).
- It’s also a reminder that, for dividend-focused investors, timing (record date / ex-div date mechanics) matters as much as the headline yield.
Merck’s pipeline breadth: even obesity gets a footnote now
A Reuters factbox on weight-loss pills noted that Merck, via a partnership with Hansoh Pharma, has been preparing to test an oral small-molecule GLP‑1 candidate (HS‑10535) in early-stage development, with the drug described as being in lab studies at the time of reporting. [29]
This is not a near-term revenue driver like Keytruda or Gardasil—but it’s relevant because it shows Merck is at least placing chips on multiple big therapeutic markets where investor attention (and potential future returns) can be enormous.
The market is closed now: what investors should know before the next trading session
Because it’s Saturday in New York, the NYSE is closed; its core trading session runs 9:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET on trading days. [30]
Barring unexpected closures, the next regular session after this weekend is Monday, December 29, 2025.
Here are the practical, non-hype things investors typically watch going into that next open:
1) Policy headlines can gap the stock
Merck is directly tied to U.S. pricing/access headlines right now (TrumpRx, Medicaid pricing, tariff frameworks). If additional details emerge over the weekend—especially implementation mechanics—MRK can move at the open. [31]
2) FDA timeline signals matter more than usual
The CNPV pilot is explicitly designed to compress review timelines to 1–2 months after submission, which can pull forward key decision points and investor expectations. [32]
3) Year-end trading dynamics: liquidity and positioning
Reuters described Friday’s session as light-volume; that’s common late in December. Thin liquidity can exaggerate moves, so price action can look more dramatic than the underlying news would suggest in a “normal” week. [33]
4) Know the near-term calendar items investors trade around
- Next earnings date: many market calendars peg Merck’s next report around February 3, 2026 (estimate). [34]
- Dividend: next payment scheduled January 8, 2026 (but the record date has already passed). [35]
- Holiday schedule: U.S. stock markets are closed on January 1, 2026, while December 31, 2025 is expected to be a full trading day for stocks (per Investopedia’s holiday schedule coverage). [36]
Bottom line for MRK investors heading into Monday
Merck stock is entering the next session with a clearer late-2025 setup than it had earlier this year:
- Policy risk is still real, but Merck is positioning itself as part of the solution through direct-to-patient pricing and manufacturing commitments. [37]
- Regulatory catalysts have gained momentum through the FDA’s CNPV program, directly touching two Merck assets with blockbuster narratives (enlicitide and sac‑TMT). [38]
- Diversification is no longer an abstract plan: the Cidara acquisition and the Blackstone-funded oncology push are concrete, capital-intensive bets designed to widen the revenue base before the Keytruda cliff arrives. [39]
- Sell-side tone has improved in December, with at least one major upgrade to $130 and a broader “quality stock” narrative resurfacing as markets grind near highs. [40]
None of this guarantees smooth sailing—biopharma rarely rewards certainty—but it does mean MRK is trading with multiple active narratives, which is exactly the kind of setup that can produce decisive moves once full liquidity returns.
References
1. www.reuters.com, 2. www.reuters.com, 3. www.reuters.com, 4. www.reuters.com, 5. www.merck.com, 6. www.reuters.com, 7. www.reuters.com, 8. www.fda.gov, 9. www.fda.gov, 10. www.fda.gov, 11. www.merck.com, 12. www.merck.com, 13. www.reuters.com, 14. www.merck.com, 15. www.reuters.com, 16. www.merck.com, 17. www.merck.com, 18. www.merck.com, 19. www.barrons.com, 20. www.reuters.com, 21. www.reuters.com, 22. www.reuters.com, 23. www.reuters.com, 24. www.investing.com, 25. www.investing.com, 26. www.tipranks.com, 27. www.barrons.com, 28. www.merck.com, 29. www.reuters.com, 30. www.nyse.com, 31. www.reuters.com, 32. www.fda.gov, 33. www.reuters.com, 34. www.zacks.com, 35. www.merck.com, 36. www.investopedia.com, 37. www.reuters.com, 38. www.fda.gov, 39. www.reuters.com, 40. www.investing.com
