Merck stock (MRK): News, dividend date, Keytruda updates and analyst forecasts to watch before the U.S. market opens Dec. 15, 2025

Merck & Co., Inc. (NYSE: MRK) heads into Monday’s U.S. session (December 15, 2025) with investors juggling a mix of near-term headlines and long-term franchise questions: a fresh dividend “reset” that makes Dec. 15 an important calendar day, ongoing scrutiny around RSV prevention products, and high-stakes execution on the company’s plan to diversify beyond Keytruda ahead of the drug’s expected loss of exclusivity later this decade. ^[1]

Below is what to know before the opening bell.

MRK stock: where shares stand heading into Monday

Merck shares most recently closed at $100.30 on Friday, Dec. 12, extending a three-day winning streak even as the broader market fell. ^[2]
Latest available pricing data also shows MRK around $100.30.

A few quick context points investors commonly track into the next session:

Distance from recent highs: Merck ended Friday about 5.23% below its 52-week high of $105.84, which was reached on Nov. 25. ^[3]
Volume/participation: Friday’s trading volume was reported at 11.8 million shares, below its 50‑day average of 12.9 million, a sign the move wasn’t accompanied by unusually heavy participation. ^[4]

The bigger issue for Monday isn’t just where MRK closed—it’s what happens to trading dynamics when a stock goes ex-dividend.

The big date on the calendar: Dec. 15 is Merck’s ex-dividend day

Merck’s board declared a quarterly dividend of $0.85 per share (first-quarter 2026 dividend), payable Jan. 8, 2026, to shareholders of record at the close of business on Dec. 15, 2025. ^[5]

Market data services also show Dec. 15, 2025 as the ex-dividend date. ^[6]

Why it matters for Monday’s open:

On the ex-dividend date, stocks often open lower by roughly the dividend amount (all else equal), because new buyers are no longer entitled to that upcoming payment.
At Friday’s close near $100, the new $0.85 quarterly dividend implies an annualized payout of $3.40, which is about a 3.4% yield at ~$100/share (simple annualized math: $3.40 ÷ $100). ^[7]

Merck also described dividend growth as part of a “balanced capital allocation strategy” in its latest quarterly materials, alongside business investment, dealmaking, and buybacks. ^[8]

Key headline risks and catalysts investors are watching now

1) Keytruda QLEX expansion—and a legal speed bump in Germany

Merck’s strategy to defend its oncology engine ahead of the 2028 patent cliff has included rolling out Keytruda QLEX, a subcutaneous formulation that can be administered in about 1–2 minutes, compared with the traditional IV infusion. ^[9]

Recent Europe-facing news has been a two-step:

EU approval: On Nov. 19, 2025, Merck announced European Commission approval for subcutaneous administration of pembrolizumab (Keytruda SC) across adult indications already approved in the EU. ^[10]
Germany injunction: In early December, Halozyme said it won a preliminary injunction in Germany related to its patent portfolio, and multiple outlets reported that the Munich Regional Court decision forces Merck (MSD) to halt certain launch activities for the subcutaneous Keytruda version in Germany. ^[11]

Why this matters to MRK shareholders:

Merck’s long-term Keytruda defense isn’t only about clinical outcomes—it’s also about delivery format and convenience that can help retain share as competitive pressure increases.
A country-specific injunction doesn’t necessarily derail the entire EU opportunity, but it raises uncertainty around timeline, geography-by-geography rollout, and litigation costs/settlement risk, which can influence sentiment.

For U.S. investors, the Keytruda QLEX story is still primarily about adoption and switching: Reuters previously reported Merck expected 30–40% adoption among Keytruda patients within two years after U.S. approval. ^[12]

2) FDA initiates new safety scrutiny of RSV therapies for infants (includes Merck’s Enflonsia)

Another headline risk sitting in the background is RSV prevention.

The FDA has initiated a fresh safety review of approved RSV preventive therapies for infants, including Merck’s Enflonsia (clesrovimab) and competitors’ products. ^[13]

Important nuance: reporting has emphasized that this scrutiny is described as a review process and that companies have said they remain confident in the products’ safety. ^[14]

What investors should keep in mind:

Enflonsia was FDA-approved on June 9, 2025 for prevention of RSV lower respiratory tract disease in infants entering their first RSV season. ^[15]
Merck’s own Q3 materials show Enflonsia generated $79 million in sales in Q3 2025, which management characterized as initial stocking ahead of expected seasonal demand. ^[16]

Because RSV products are used in infants and administered broadly, any change in labeling, recommendations, supply, or public confidence can matter—even if the financial contribution is smaller than oncology today.

3) Dealmaking as a post‑Keytruda bridge: the $9.2B Cidara acquisition

Merck’s business development push remains central to the MRK narrative. In mid-November, Merck agreed to acquire Cidara Therapeutics in a transaction valued at ~$9.2 billion (purchase price $221.50 per share), with Merck indicating it expects to finance primarily through new debt and commercial paper, and expecting the deal to close in 1Q 2026 (subject to approvals). ^[17]

The strategic logic is straightforward: Cidara’s lead asset CD388 is being developed as a long-acting preventive therapy for seasonal influenza, and Merck is looking for durable revenue streams into the next decade. ^[18]

BioPharma Dive’s reporting added color investors tend to focus on:

CD388 is designed to provide broad seasonal coverage, and interim results from late-stage work were described as expected next year. ^[19]
Analysts at RBC were cited projecting a multibillion-dollar market opportunity for the drug, underscoring why Merck was willing to pay a large premium. ^[20]

4) Verona / Ohtuvayre: Merck’s “next decade” COPD bet is now in-house

Merck also points to the completed acquisition of Verona Pharma—bringing in COPD product Ohtuvayre—as another growth driver. In its Q3 prepared remarks, Merck highlighted the Verona acquisition as completed in October and positioned Ohtuvayre as a multi‑billion‑dollar commercial opportunity. ^[21]

Merck’s CFO also signaled the company expects to invest heavily to maximize the launch, citing more than half a billion dollars of investment tied to Ohtuvayre as it looks into 2026. ^[22]

What Merck’s latest quarter says about the underlying business

The cleanest way to understand MRK into Monday’s open is to separate “headline noise” from what the company has already put in writing and on the record.

In Merck’s third-quarter prepared remarks (Oct. 30, 2025), the company reported:

Total revenue:$17.3 billion, up 4% (3% excluding FX). ^[23]
Non‑GAAP EPS:$2.58 for the quarter. ^[24]
Updated full‑year 2025 non‑GAAP guidance:
- Revenue $64.5–$65.0 billion ^[25]
- EPS $8.93–$8.98 ^[26]

Product-level trends worth noting

Keytruda remains the engine
Keytruda sales increased 8% to $8.1 billion in Q3 2025, with Merck pointing to demand in metastatic indications and uptake in earlier-stage cancers. ^[27]
Separately, a Zacks analysis carried by Nasdaq noted Keytruda recorded $23.3 billion in sales in the first nine months of 2025 and highlighted that it represents more than half of Merck’s pharmaceutical sales. ^[28]

Gardasil remains a swing factor, especially ex‑China
Merck reported Gardasil sales of $1.7 billion in Q3, down 25%, and said that excluding China, sales declined 3%, with Japan headwinds partly offset by U.S. growth. ^[29]
Earlier in 2025, Merck said it would extend a pause on Gardasil shipments to China until at least the end of 2025 due to weak demand, which had hit the stock at the time and prompted a cost-savings plan. ^[30]

New launches are starting to show real dollars
Merck’s Q3 prepared remarks highlighted:

Capvaxive:$244 million in Q3 sales. ^[31]
- Fierce Pharma described Capvaxive as off to a “very strong start,” citing Q3 sales and prior-quarter growth. ^[32]
Winrevair:$360 million in global sales in Q3, with Merck citing strong prescription momentum. ^[33]
- BioPharma Dive recently reported analysts forecasting peak annual sales for Winrevair of roughly $8–$8.5 billion, reflecting how important this asset is to the “next wave” story. ^[34]
Enflonsia:$79 million in Q3 sales (initial stocking). ^[35]

Capital return: buybacks plus dividend

In addition to the dividend increase, Merck told investors it expects approximately $5 billion in share repurchases for the full year (as discussed in the prepared remarks). ^[36]

For income-focused shareholders, the messaging is consistent: the dividend is positioned as a core commitment, while management continues to emphasize business development and investment in the pipeline. ^[37]

Analyst forecasts and valuation: what “the Street” is signaling into Dec. 15

Consensus estimates change frequently, but aggregated snapshots suggest analysts see MRK as a stock with moderate upside from current levels:

Yahoo Finance listed a 1‑year target estimate around $107.46, with a displayed range of $82 to $139. ^[38]
Zacks’ published price-target range also spans $82 to $139 (with an average target implying single-digit upside from recent prices). ^[39]

Recent note flow has been mixed-to-positive:

TheFly/TipRanks reported Goldman Sachs raised its price target to $120 while maintaining a Buy rating (Dec. 2), and Scotiabank raised its target to $120 while maintaining an Outperform/Sector Outperform stance (Dec. 4). ^[40]
Other summaries indicated Morgan Stanley adjusted its price target to $102 while maintaining an Equal‑Weight view (Dec. 12). ^[41]

On valuation, a Zacks/Nasdaq analysis described Merck trading at roughly 11.22x forward earnings at the time of publication, below an industry multiple cited in that same analysis. ^[42]

The long-term MRK debate: replacing Keytruda as the 2028 cliff approaches

No matter what the stock does Monday, most institutional conversations still center on one question: can Merck build enough new revenue streams to offset the eventual erosion of Keytruda?

Keytruda’s exclusivity is widely expected to face pressure after 2028, and Reuters reported Keytruda generated nearly $30 billion in global sales in 2024—illustrating why even small changes to the slope matter. ^[43]
Merck’s answer, per its own investor messaging and third‑party analysis, is a combination of:
- Format innovation (Keytruda QLEX) ^[44]
- New launches (Winrevair, Capvaxive, Enflonsia) ^[45]
- Late-stage pipeline depth (including oral PCSK9 inhibitor programs and immunology/oncology candidates) ^[46]
- M&A (Verona, Cidara) ^[47]

Merck itself said it has approximately 80 Phase 3 trials underway and more than 20 launch opportunities, framing the opportunity set as potentially transformative into the 2030s. ^[48]

What to watch next (practical checklist for Monday)

If you’re tracking MRK into the Dec. 15 open, here are the most “market-moving” items to keep on your radar:

Ex-dividend trading dynamics (Dec. 15): Expect price action to reflect the $0.85 dividend mechanics alongside broader market sentiment. ^[49]
RSV safety-review headlines: Any FDA update, label change, or new commentary could influence perceptions around Enflonsia’s ramp, even if the review is framed as routine. ^[50]
Keytruda SC litigation developments in Europe: Watch for follow-on filings or statements from Merck/MSD and Halozyme after the German injunction. ^[51]
Deal integration and financing narrative: Updates on how Merck plans to finance and integrate the Cidara acquisition (expected close 1Q 2026) can affect how investors model leverage and flexibility for future deals. ^[52]
Key upcoming regulatory dates: Merck noted a Feb. 20 PDUFA date for a Keytruda-related filing in its prepared remarks (context: oncology program updates), and outside analysis has pointed to other decisions in 2026. ^[53]

Bottom line for MRK stock before the Dec. 15 open

Merck enters Monday with a “three-layer” setup:

Short-term: an ex-dividend date that can mechanically influence the opening print and intraday flows. ^[54]
Medium-term: headline-driven risk around RSV safety scrutiny and Keytruda SC litigation in Germany—both capable of moving sentiment quickly even if fundamentals don’t change overnight. ^[55]
Long-term: the core investment thesis remains whether new launches (Winrevair/Capvaxive/Enflonsia), pipeline depth, and dealmaking (Verona/Cidara) can build a durable growth base before Keytruda’s expected LOE pressure later this decade. ^[56]

For Monday specifically, the cleanest “tell” may be how the market prices MRK relative to the dividend adjustment and whether weekend/early‑Monday headlines add to—or relieve—uncertainty around RSV and Keytruda SC. ^[57]