Updated: November 30, 2025
Meta Platforms (NASDAQ: META) has become one of the most hotly debated names on Wall Street. After a sharp post‑earnings pullback on concerns over an exploding AI budget, analysts still see sizeable upside into 2026 — with some long‑term models even pointing toward four‑digit share prices. At the same time, a minority of forecasts warn that Meta’s aggressive capital spending could set the stock up for a painful reset.
This article brings together the latest news, analyst price targets, and algorithm‑based forecasts to build a realistic, data‑driven view of Meta’s stock price outlook for 2026.
Quick note: Nothing here is investment advice. It’s an informational overview to help you understand the range of expectations around Meta stock.
1. Where Meta Stock Stands Going Into 2026
As of the latest close on November 28, 2025, Meta trades around $648 per share, giving the company a market capitalization near $1.85 trillion and a trailing P/E ratio just over 31.
Despite the recent volatility, Meta is still up roughly high‑20s percent year‑to‑date in 2025, according to Reuters, but the mood shifted after the company’s Q3 2025 earnings. [1]
Q3 2025: Strong business, ugly optics
For the third quarter of 2025, Meta reported: [2]
- Revenue: $51.2 billion, up 26% year over year
- Operating margin: 40%
- Ad impressions: up 14% YoY across the “Family of Apps”
- Headline EPS: only $1.05 due to a one‑time U.S. tax charge of about $15.9 billion
Stripping out the one‑off tax hit, management said underlying EPS would have been around $7.25, which paints a much healthier picture of profitability. [3]
On the guidance front, Meta expects Q4 2025 revenue of roughly $56–59 billion and continues to project strong ad revenue growth, though Reality Labs revenue is expected to be weaker. [4]
So why all the drama? Because of 2026.
2. The 2026 Story: AI Capex Explosion vs. Ad Growth
“Notably larger” capital expenditure in 2026
In its Q3 update, Meta told investors that capital expenditures in 2026 will be “notably larger” than in 2025, driven mainly by AI data‑center build‑outs. It simultaneously raised its 2025 capex guidance to $70–72 billion, up from earlier expectations. [5]
Independent analysts estimate that total expenses in 2026 could be close to $97 billion, based on FactSet data cited in European financial coverage. [6]
A separate analysis by tech investor Beth Kindig notes that Meta’s Q3 2025 capex alone hit about $19.4 billion, more than double the figure a year earlier, and that full‑year capex could grow over 80% year‑on‑year. [7]
Some commentators even model 2026 capex surpassing $100 billion if current trends continue. [8]
Funding the AI build‑out
Meta isn’t just spending cash on hand. Like its mega‑cap peers, it has been tapping the bond market:
- Major tech firms have raised close to $100 billion in bonds to fund AI and cloud capex in 2025.
- Meta’s contribution includes up to $30 billion in its largest bond offering to date, plus a $27 billion private capital deal tied to its “Hyperion” data‑center project. [9]
At the same time, Meta is exploring switching part of its AI hardware stack from NVIDIA GPUs to Google’s Tensor Processing Units (TPUs):
- Reuters and other outlets report Meta is in talks to spend billions on Google’s AI chips, potentially renting TPU capacity from Google Cloud as early as 2026 and buying chips outright from 2027. [10]
This has two implications for 2026:
- Capex stays very high as Meta races to secure compute capacity.
- Cost per unit of compute could fall over time, potentially helping margins later in the decade.
Investor reaction: bullish long term, nervous short term
The market’s verdict so far:
- Meta shares fell about 8% immediately after Q3 earnings as investors digested the huge AI spending plans. [11]
- According to eMarketer, the stock is down around 15% since the report, even though revenue grew 26% year‑over‑year. [12]
- Several analysts have warned of an “avalanche” of AI‑related costs hitting in 2026, even as they acknowledge strong ad‑revenue momentum. [13]
This tension — soaring AI capex vs. strong core ad business — is exactly what makes Meta’s 2026 stock forecast so controversial.
3. Wall Street’s Meta Stock Forecast for 2026
Most professional analysts publish 12‑month price targets. From late November 2025, those 12 months effectively cover late 2025 through late 2026, making them highly relevant to a 2026 outlook.
Consensus price targets: clustered around $800–$850
Across several aggregators, Wall Street’s view looks surprisingly consistent:
- Investing.com (60 analysts):
- Average 12‑month target ~$841
- High target $1,117, low $685
- Consensus rating: “Strong Buy” [14]
- TipRanks:
- Average target ~$838
- High $1,117, low $655
- Rating: “Strong Buy” based on 35 Buy, 6 Hold, 1 Sell. [15]
- StockAnalysis:
- Around 45 analysts
- Average target ~$821, implying roughly 27% upside from the recent price
- Consensus rating: “Strong Buy”. [16]
- MarketBeat:
- Overall consensus near $828
- Among analysts updating targets after Q3 2025, the average climbs to about $857, implying up to ~40% upside. [17]
Several individual analysts stand out:
- BNP Paribas: Initiated coverage with an $800 target and ~30% upside, highlighting Meta’s scale in AI‑powered advertising despite concerns about its AI assistant and Llama model. [18]
- Roth Capital: Reiterated a Buy rating with an $835 target, calling Meta a top mega‑cap pick. [19]
- Canaccord Genuity: Target around $900.
- JPMorgan, RBC, Cantor: Range from roughly $720–$810. [20]
- A Seeking Alpha analyst recently assigned a $904 price target, suggesting more than 40% upside. [21]
There are skeptics too:
- MoffettNathanson cut its target from about $875 to $750, arguing Meta is overspending on AI, but still kept a Buy rating. [22]
- Erste Group downgraded the stock to Hold, citing the “significant acceleration” in AI‑driven capital expenditure expected in 2026. [23]
Takeaway:
Mainstream 12‑month targets for Meta cluster in the $750–$900 range, with a few outliers above $1,000 or below $700. For investors thinking about 2026, that “consensus corridor” is likely the most useful reference point.
4. Fundamental 2026 Projections: Revenue, Earnings, and Valuation
24/7 Wall St compiled a detailed set of fundamental forecasts for Meta through 2030, drawing on analyst estimates and its own modeling: [24]
For 2026, they project approximately:
- Revenue: $205.3 billion
- Net income: $70.7 billion
- EPS: about $27.71
Starting from today’s price around $648:
- At $648, Meta trades at roughly 23.4× projected 2026 EPS (648 ÷ 27.71).
- If the stock reached $750, that would imply ~27× 2026 EPS.
- At $900, the multiple would be ~32.5× 2026 EPS.
- At $1,000, you’re looking at ~36× 2026 EPS.
These are growth‑style valuations, but not wildly out of line with where other dominant AI and cloud names have traded when earnings growth is strong and interest rates cooperate.
24/7’s own 2026 price target is about $935, implying roughly 47% upside from current levels. By 2030, their model has Meta near $1,217, assuming continued growth and sustained profitability. [25]
5. Algorithmic and Long‑Term Meta Stock Predictions for 2026
Beyond human analysts, a variety of quantitative and algorithm‑based models publish longer‑range forecasts for Meta. These are often based on historical price patterns, technical indicators, or proprietary formulas — not on deep fundamental analysis.
Bullish quantitative models
- Stockscan:
- Predicts an average META price of about $980 in 2026, with a range from roughly $710 to $1,250.
- That’s a projected gain of just over 50% versus the current price. [26]
- TradingView analyst consensus (not a pure algo, but an aggregation):
- Shows an average target around $840, with the highest official target also at $1,117 and the lowest in the low $600s, broadly consistent with the other Wall Street sources. [27]
- BeatMarket:
- Synthesizing multiple models, they argue Meta has “every reason” to keep rising, and they expect the stock to eventually break above $1,000 over the coming years. [28]
Cautious and bearish models
Interestingly, some quant sites produce dramatically lower 2026 estimates:
- BeatMarket notes that CoinCodex’s model suggests Meta’s price could fall toward $295–$319 by the end of 2026, implying a severe drawdown from current levels. [29]
- Longforecast, which offers monthly algorithmic projections, shows Meta at roughly $475–$560 in early 2026 in one scenario — below today’s price — before modeling a huge rally later in the decade. [30]
These outlier models illustrate just how differently algorithms can extrapolate past volatility and AI‑driven hype cycles.
Key point:
Algorithmic forecasts for 2026 range from sub‑$300 to almost $1,250. That spread is so wide that it’s more useful as a sentiment barometer (“anything can happen”) than as a precise prediction tool.
6. What Will Really Drive Meta’s Share Price in 2026?
Regardless of which target you believe, Meta’s 2026 stock price will ultimately depend on execution. Several key themes stand out.
1. Monetizing AI – beyond “just ads”
Right now, AI primarily shows up at Meta as better targeting, ranking, and recommendation systems, which are already turbo‑charging ad performance. Q3’s 26% revenue growth was driven in large part by AI‑powered ad tools and content feeds. [31]
The 2026 bull case assumes Meta can:
- Continue boosting ad prices and ad load using AI optimization. [32]
- Start unlocking new revenue streams from AI assistants, creator tools, business messaging, and possibly paid features in its apps.
- Reduce unit compute costs over time by carefully choosing hardware (e.g., TPUs vs. GPUs) and designing efficient data centers. [33]
If AI spend translates into higher margins after 2026, the current capex spike could look like an investment “blip” in hindsight. If not, the market may reassess the multiple.
2. Reality Labs: sinkhole or springboard?
Reality Labs — Meta’s AR/VR and metaverse unit — continues to post multi‑billion‑dollar operating losses on relatively tiny revenue, and it’s expected to remain in the red in 2026. [34]
For the stock in 2026, the question isn’t whether Reality Labs is profitable; it’s whether:
- Losses narrow, or at least stop accelerating.
- Any product (VR headsets, smart glasses, or mixed‑reality devices) shows clear product‑market fit.
If Reality Labs is still burning cash with no traction by late 2026, investors may push for restructuring or sharper spending limits, which could be bullish for the stock even if the division itself underwhelms.
3. Free cash flow, buybacks, and the dividend
Meta has quietly become a free‑cash‑flow machine. 24/7 Wall St estimates free cash flow of over $50 billion in 2024 and projects further growth even as capex rises. [35]
Key capital‑return levers going into 2026:
- Share buybacks: Meta has authorized around $50 billion in repurchases, a powerful EPS support if the share price stays depressed. [36]
- Dividends: The company recently introduced a modest quarterly dividend (just over $0.50 per share), equating to a small ~0.3% yield at current prices but signaling management’s confidence in durable cash generation. [37]
If Meta can keep growing FCF in 2026 despite sky‑high capex, buybacks plus dividend growth could materially boost per‑share earnings and support higher valuations.
4. Regulation, competition, and macro
Several external forces will also influence Meta’s 2026 valuation:
- Regulation & antitrust: Ongoing scrutiny over data privacy, content moderation, and market dominance could limit product launches or lead to fines and forced changes.
- Competition for attention: TikTok, YouTube, Snap, and emerging platforms will keep fighting for ad budgets and user time.
- AI arms race: Alphabet, Amazon, Microsoft, and others are also spending huge sums on AI, raising the bar for returns on capital. [38]
- Macro & rates: If interest rates fall and investors rotate back into growth, high‑multiple tech stocks like Meta tend to benefit. Persistent inflation or higher‑for‑longer rates would have the opposite effect.
7. Scenario Analysis: Where Could Meta’s Stock Trade in 2026?
To tie everything together, it’s helpful to think in scenarios, using 24/7’s 2026 EPS estimate (~$27.7) as a reference point. [39]
None of these are predictions — they’re illustrative ranges based on different assumptions.
Bear case (late‑2026 price: roughly $400–$550)
Assumptions:
- AI capex remains extremely high, but earnings growth slows.
- Regulatory or competitive pressures hurt ad pricing.
- Market applies a lower earnings multiple (15–20× 2026 EPS).
Math:
- 15× $27.7 ≈ $415
- 20× $27.7 ≈ $554
This aligns loosely with some of the more cautious algorithmic models that see Meta in the $300–$500 area by the end of 2026. [40]
Base case (late‑2026 price: roughly $700–$850)
Assumptions:
- Revenue grows near current expectations.
- AI investment starts to show operating leverage, but margins are still below pre‑AI‑surge levels.
- The market assigns a mid‑20s multiple (24–28× 2026 EPS).
Math:
- 24× $27.7 ≈ $665
- 28× $27.7 ≈ $776
Round that range and you land in the $700–$800 zone, broadly consistent with consensus 12‑month price targets in the $750–$850 band. [41]
Bull case (late‑2026 price: roughly $900–$1,100+)
Assumptions:
- Meta executes extremely well on AI monetization.
- Reality Labs losses narrow, or at least stop worsening.
- Free cash flow keeps expanding despite big capex, funding buybacks and dividend growth.
- The market rewards Meta with a premium multiple (32–36× 2026 EPS) — similar to what investors sometimes pay for dominant compounders during AI “boom” periods.
Math:
- 32× $27.7 ≈ $886
- 36× $27.7 ≈ $997
That lines up with the upper end of Wall Street targets ($900+) and with some quantitative models that see Meta approaching or exceeding $1,000 over the next few years. [42]
Again, these are just logical ranges — reality will depend on data we don’t have yet.
8. So, Is Meta Stock a Buy Heading Into 2026?
From a neutral, informational standpoint, here’s what the current evidence suggests:
Arguments the bulls emphasize
- Meta remains the dominant global social‑media ad platform with over 3.5 billion daily active people across its apps. [43]
- Core ad business is growing revenue in the mid‑20% range again, powered by AI‑driven improvements. [44]
- Even after its run, analysts overwhelmingly rate Meta a “Strong Buy”, with consensus price targets 30–40% above the current share price. [45]
- New dividend plus aggressive buybacks offer a shareholder‑friendly capital‑return story. [46]
Arguments the bears (and cautious investors) focus on
- AI capex and overall expenses could crush free cash flow in 2026 if revenue growth slows. [47]
- Some analysts are already trimming targets or downgrading the stock over fears of overspending on AI. [48]
- Reality Labs remains a large, open‑ended cash drain with uncertain payoff. [49]
- Macro risks (recession, regulation, competition) could compress valuation multiples even if earnings grow.
How to think about it (without giving advice)
- If you believe Meta’s AI and data‑center investments will generate strong incremental profits by the second half of the decade, 2026 could mark the turning point where the market re‑rates the stock higher.
- If you suspect AI capex will be less productive or need to be reined in, 2026 might instead be a year of multiple compression and disappointment, making the lower forecast ranges more plausible.
Either way, the spread between bearish and bullish 2026 scenarios is enormous — from near $400 on the downside to $1,000+ on the upside. That wide range is your clue that Meta is not a low‑risk, bond‑like equity; it’s a large but still high‑beta play on AI, digital advertising, and consumer attention.
Before making any moves, it’s wise to:
- Consider your time horizon (are you thinking in quarters or in years?).
- Assess your risk tolerance for large swings in high‑multiple tech names.
- Compare Meta to other AI‑exposed stocks in your portfolio to avoid over‑concentration.
References
1. www.reuters.com, 2. investor.atmeta.com, 3. investor.atmeta.com, 4. www.alpha-sense.com, 5. www.reuters.com, 6. www.euronews.com, 7. beth-kindig.medium.com, 8. seekingalpha.com, 9. www.reuters.com, 10. www.reuters.com, 11. www.reuters.com, 12. www.emarketer.com, 13. global.morningstar.com, 14. www.investing.com, 15. www.tipranks.com, 16. stockanalysis.com, 17. www.marketbeat.com, 18. www.marketwatch.com, 19. www.cantechletter.com, 20. www.quiverquant.com, 21. seekingalpha.com, 22. www.fastcompany.com, 23. finance.yahoo.com, 24. 247wallst.com, 25. 247wallst.com, 26. stockscan.io, 27. www.tradingview.com, 28. beatmarket.com, 29. beatmarket.com, 30. longforecast.com, 31. www.morningstar.com, 32. www.marketwatch.com, 33. www.reuters.com, 34. www.home.saxo, 35. 247wallst.com, 36. 247wallst.com, 37. 247wallst.com, 38. www.reuters.com, 39. 247wallst.com, 40. longforecast.com, 41. www.investing.com, 42. 247wallst.com, 43. investor.atmeta.com, 44. www.morningstar.com, 45. www.investing.com, 46. 247wallst.com, 47. www.reuters.com, 48. www.fastcompany.com, 49. www.home.saxo
