NEW YORK — Friday, December 26, 2025 (12:36 p.m. ET): Meta Platforms, Inc. (NASDAQ: META) shares are trading around $662.87, down about 0.7% on the day in a thin, post-Christmas session. The stock has traded roughly between $662.87 and $668.70 so far, with a market capitalization near $1.85 trillion and a trailing P/E around 31.5, based on current market data.
With U.S. markets open right now (regular trading hours are 9:30 a.m.–4:00 p.m. ET), META is moving alongside a market that’s hovering near record territory—while investors keep a close eye on one Meta storyline in particular: how aggressively it spends on AI infrastructure in 2026, and whether the payoff is showing up fast enough in margins and new revenue. [1]
The market backdrop: “Santa rally” vibes, but volume is thin
This Friday session is shaped by a familiar year-end dynamic: low liquidity and modest index moves right after the holiday. Reuters described the broader market as hovering near all-time highs in “thin post-Christmas trading,” with the S&P 500 flirting with an intraday record before easing back. [2]
That matters for META investors for two reasons:
- Price moves can look “louder” than the news warrants when fewer institutions are at their desks and volumes are lighter than normal.
- Mega-cap tech (Meta included) often becomes a “liquidity magnet” in these periods, meaning flows can influence the tape even without a company-specific catalyst. [3]
Reuters also notes that investors are watching the traditional “Santa Claus rally” window (late December through early January) and heading into 2026 with a sharper focus on whether AI spending translates into measurable productivity and margin gains. [4]
Meta stock price check: what the tape says right now
As of midday in New York, Meta shares are:
- Price: about $662.87
- Day change: about -$4.68 (-0.70%)
- Intraday range: about $662.87–$668.70
- Market cap: about $1.845T
- P/E: about 31.5
In a quiet session like this, investors typically focus less on minute-by-minute trading and more on what could re-rate the stock into the next earnings cycle.
Why Meta is in focus: the bull case is intact, but the debate is getting sharper
Meta’s 2025 narrative has been a tug-of-war between two ideas:
- Bull case: Meta is still a dominant global advertising platform with AI improving targeting, measurement, and creative tools—supporting revenue growth and strong cash generation.
- Bear case: Meta’s next leg requires a heavy AI infrastructure buildout, raising concerns about margin compression, “overbuilding,” and whether returns arrive quickly enough. [5]
That debate intensified after Meta’s most recent quarterly results, where the company explicitly guided to significantly higher AI-related investment needs.
What Meta’s latest results said about growth, ads, and spending
From Meta’s official third-quarter 2025 release (covering the quarter ended Sept. 30, 2025), the company highlighted:
- Revenue:$51.24 billion, up 26% year over year
- Family Daily Active People (DAP):3.54 billion, up 8% year over year
- Ad impressions: up 14% year over year
- Average price per ad: up 10% year over year [6]
But the quarter also showcased why headlines can mislead if you only glance at GAAP EPS:
- Meta recorded a one-time, non-cash income tax charge of $15.93 billion, pushing reported diluted EPS to $1.05.
- Excluding that one-time charge, Meta said diluted EPS would have been $7.25 (i.e., an increase of $6.20 from the reported figure). [7]
The key forward-looking line investors keep coming back to: 2026 spending pressure
Meta guided:
- Q4 2025 total revenue:$56–$59 billion
- Full-year 2025 expenses:$116–$118 billion
- Full-year 2025 capex:$70–$72 billion (including principal payments on finance leases)
- And crucially: capex dollar growth is expected to be “notably larger” in 2026 than 2025, with expenses also growing faster—driven mainly by infrastructure (including cloud) and depreciation. [8]
This is the engine behind much of today’s Wall Street push-pull on META: investors want the AI upside, but they want proof the investment curve won’t outpace monetization.
Major headlines shaping sentiment right now
1) Instagram and the fight for teens (and what it means for regulatory risk)
A Washington Post report published today describes leaked internal documents detailing Instagram’s multi-year effort to win back teen users, including product and algorithm initiatives—set against a backdrop of lawsuits and scrutiny over teen safety. [9]
For investors, this isn’t just a “platform popularity” story. It’s tied to:
- engagement durability (especially versus TikTok/YouTube), and
- legal and regulatory risk, which can affect product design, data use, and ultimately ad performance.
2) A meaningful antitrust overhang eased
In November, Reuters reported Meta defeated the U.S. attempt to unwind its Instagram and WhatsApp acquisitions, with the judge concluding the company does not hold a social media monopoly as alleged in the case. [10]
While this doesn’t end Meta’s regulatory pressures globally, it reduces an existential risk that could have forced asset separation—something equity investors tend to price as a tail risk.
3) A Reuters investigation raises reputational and enforcement questions on ad quality
A Reuters special report this month describes internal documents suggesting Meta weighed the revenue impact of cracking down on certain fraudulent advertising activity tied to Chinese advertisers—an issue that could invite more scrutiny from regulators and payment partners, and potentially raise questions about ad integrity controls. [11]
Ad quality and trust are “slow burn” risks: they rarely hit revenue overnight, but they can influence platform policy, enforcement costs, and brand advertiser confidence over time.
Wall Street’s current forecast: strong buy consensus, but targets diverge
Despite the spending debate, analyst sentiment remains broadly constructive.
A widely followed aggregation of analyst targets shows:
- Consensus rating: “Strong Buy”
- Average 12-month price target: about $819
- Low target: about $645
- High target: about $1,117 [12]
That spread is the story: bulls see Meta as an AI+ads compounder with new monetization levers, while cautious analysts focus on margin pressure and execution risk.
Recent notable price-target moves and what they imply
Baird (Colin Sebastian): $815 target; “opportunistic buyers,” but sentiment is “wounded.”
Barron’s reported Baird reiterated an Outperform rating and trimmed its target slightly, arguing investors may be overly pessimistic heading into 2026—while acknowledging concerns around margin pressure, AI spend, and competition. [13]
Morgan Stanley (Brian Nowak): $750 target; still Overweight, but lowers EPS assumptions on higher opex.
According to The Fly (via TipRanks), Morgan Stanley cut its target to $750 from $820 while remaining bullish into 2026, citing higher operating expense expectations and lower FY26/FY27 EPS estimates. [14]
Wedbush (Scott Devitt): $880 target; calls Meta a top advertising pick for 2026.
The Fly (via TipRanks) also reported Wedbush lowered its target but kept an Outperform rating, highlighting resilient digital ad trends, adoption of Advantage+, and “new channels” monetization—while flagging possible margin contraction next year. [15]
Rosenblatt (Barton Crockett): $1,117 “street-high” target; views AI spend as justified.
TipRanks reported Rosenblatt set a $1,117 target after Q3, arguing Meta’s AI investment returns appear strong enough to support the heavier spend profile. [16]
What investors should watch next: the 2026 catalyst calendar
1) Next earnings date: expect late January/early February (still unconfirmed)
Several market calendars estimate Meta’s next earnings around early February 2026 (commonly cited as Feb. 4, 2026, based on historical patterns), but it may remain unconfirmed until Meta updates its IR calendar. [17]
Why it matters: This is where investors will look for:
- a clearer 2026 capex/opex framework,
- evidence of ROI from AI spend (ads efficiency, pricing, engagement),
- and updates on WhatsApp monetization and Reality Labs trajectory. [18]
2) AI spending discipline vs. revenue durability
Reuters framed 2026 as a “prove-it” year for markets—companies must deliver tangible productivity and margin gains from AI investments. That macro framing lands directly on Meta, which has openly guided to higher infrastructure-driven costs next year. [19]
3) WhatsApp monetization is moving from “option” to “model”
Meta’s bull narrative increasingly includes WhatsApp, not just Instagram and Facebook. Evercore ISI analyst Mark Mahaney has highlighted WhatsApp monetization as a key growth lever (as reported via TipRanks). [20]
Independently, Morningstar has pointed to WhatsApp ads as incremental inventory that could support top-line growth (depending on rollout design and user experience). [21]
4) Wearables as an upside call option
Smart glasses remain early, but they’re increasingly part of the “AI product surface area” narrative. Reuters reported Meta holds a dominant share of global smartglasses shipments, underscoring why investors treat wearables as a potential multi-year optionality story rather than near-term earnings driver. [22]
Risks that can move META quickly (even in a strong tape)
Meta’s risk profile is not just about competition. The stock can reprice fast if investors see any of these themes worsening:
- Cost creep: If 2026 capex/opex guidance rises again without clear monetization milestones. [23]
- Regulatory headwinds (EU/U.S.): Meta itself warned in its outlook commentary that active legal/regulatory matters could significantly impact results, including potential EU-related impacts. [24]
- Trust and safety scrutiny: Teen safety litigation/scrutiny and ad integrity controversies can create policy and enforcement costs—or pressure changes to product design. [25]
- Reality Labs losses remain material: Meta’s Reality Labs segment posted an operating loss of about $4.43 billion in Q3 2025, a reminder that not every bet is currently self-funding. [26]
Capital returns: dividend plus buybacks still matter to the story
Meta’s shareholder return profile is no longer “buybacks only.” The company declared a quarterly cash dividend of $0.525 per share, payable Dec. 23, 2025 to shareholders of record Dec. 15, 2025, according to Meta’s investor release. [27]
In Q3 2025, Meta also reported $3.16 billion in share repurchases and $1.33 billion in dividend and dividend-equivalent payments. [28]
For investors weighing the AI spend cycle, these capital return details can act as a sentiment stabilizer—signaling confidence in cash generation even as infrastructure costs rise.
What to know before the next session (and into the close)
Because the market is open right now, the most practical “next session” checklist is less about a reopening gap and more about holiday liquidity and headline sensitivity:
- Expect headline-driven swings to look exaggerated. Thin volume can amplify moves in mega-caps. [29]
- Keep an eye on regulatory/tone headlines. Teen safety, ad integrity, and platform policy stories can shift sentiment fast. [30]
- Watch for analyst follow-through. Recent price target changes (Morgan Stanley, Wedbush, Baird) show the Street is actively recalibrating expectations for 2026 margins and spend. [31]
- Know the next big catalyst: the next earnings update (late Jan/early Feb estimates) is where Meta’s 2026 spending and monetization framework should become clearer. [32]
Bottom line
Meta stock is trading modestly lower midday in New York in a quiet, post-Christmas session—but the real driver for 2026 positioning is not today’s tape. It’s the market’s ongoing attempt to price a simple question: Will Meta’s AI infrastructure spend produce visible, durable returns in ads, messaging, and new AI surfaces fast enough to protect margins? [33]
References
1. www.reuters.com, 2. www.reuters.com, 3. www.reuters.com, 4. www.reuters.com, 5. www.investors.com, 6. investor.atmeta.com, 7. investor.atmeta.com, 8. investor.atmeta.com, 9. www.washingtonpost.com, 10. www.reuters.com, 11. www.reuters.com, 12. stockanalysis.com, 13. www.barrons.com, 14. www.tipranks.com, 15. www.tipranks.com, 16. www.tipranks.com, 17. www.marketbeat.com, 18. investor.atmeta.com, 19. www.reuters.com, 20. www.tipranks.com, 21. global.morningstar.com, 22. www.reuters.com, 23. investor.atmeta.com, 24. investor.atmeta.com, 25. www.washingtonpost.com, 26. investor.atmeta.com, 27. investor.atmeta.com, 28. investor.atmeta.com, 29. www.reuters.com, 30. www.washingtonpost.com, 31. www.tipranks.com, 32. www.marketbeat.com, 33. investor.atmeta.com
