Meta Platforms, Inc. (NASDAQ: META) heads into Friday’s U.S. trading session with its share price little changed after the closing bell on Thursday, but with a lot more going on under the surface than the calm quote suggests.
Between a high‑profile pivot in artificial intelligence strategy, deep cuts to its metaverse ambitions, fresh price targets from Wall Street and growing regulatory heat, META has become one of the most closely watched names heading into the final stretch of 2025. TechStock²+1
Here’s a detailed look at how the stock traded on Thursday, December 11, 2025, and what investors will want to pay attention to before the market opens on Friday, December 12, 2025.
How META Traded on December 11, 2025
A mostly calm day for the share price
Meta spent Thursday’s regular session grinding sideways:
- Intraday range: roughly $641–$655 per share. [1]
- Regular-session close: around $651 (various data feeds show closes between about $651.3 and $652.7), essentially flat versus Wednesday’s $650 area finish. [2]
- Volume: around 9–13 million shares changed hands, modest compared with some of the heavier trading days seen after October’s earnings and subsequent AI/metaverse headlines. [3]
In other words, price action alone didn’t tell the story. The stock has already given back a chunk of its post‑summer gains and now trades nearly 19% below its 52‑week high near $796, reached in August. TechStock²+1
After the bell: small move, big context
In after‑hours trading on December 11, META ticked slightly higher:
- After‑hours quote: about $653.6, up roughly 0.1–0.3% from the regular close, with light volume shortly after 4 p.m. Eastern time. [4]
The muted move suggests that, for now, investors are digesting rather than reacting violently to the flood of Meta headlines. But derivatives markets and fresh research notes show that positioning under the hood is anything but quiet.
Options Activity: $650 Strike in the Spotlight
One of the more notable signals ahead of Friday’s December 12 options expiration is heavy trading around the $650 call strike:
- On Wednesday, 15,867 contracts of the $650 call expiring December 12, 2025 traded — representing roughly 1.6 million shares of META.
- Total options volume that day reached about 335,000 contracts, equivalent to 33.5 million shares, or 178% of Meta’s average daily share volume over the past month. [5]
Large open interest and high volume at a nearby strike can sometimes “magnetize” the stock price toward that level into expiration, as hedging flows from market makers and institutional traders cluster around it. It’s not a guarantee, but $650 is a level to watch closely during Friday’s session.
Wall Street’s View: Still Bullish, But More Nuanced
Consensus rating: “Moderate Buy” with high‑$800s targets
A fresh MarketBeat summary published on December 11 shows that Meta still enjoys strong support from the analyst community: [6]
- Consensus rating:“Moderate Buy”
- Analyst breakdown:
- 4 Strong Buy
- 39 Buy
- 7 Hold
- Average 12‑month price target:$821.63, implying mid‑20s upside from the low‑$650s.
- 52‑week range: about $480–$796 per share.
- Valuation: roughly 28–29× earnings, with analysts forecasting about $26.7 of EPS for the current fiscal year.
- Dividend: quarterly $0.525 per share (about $2.10 annualized), a ~0.3% yield at current prices. [7]
Citizens sticks with a $900 price target on Instagram strength
Early Thursday, Citizens reiterated its $900 price target and “Market Outperform” rating, arguing that Meta’s Instagram momentum is still under‑appreciated: [8]
- Time spent on Instagram in the U.S. is growing about 20% year‑over‑year.
- Global time spent is also up more than 20% in both October and November.
- Citizens credits improved recommendation algorithms for surfacing more relevant content, which in turn supports stronger ad monetization.
At Thursday’s closing levels, a $900 target implies roughly 30–40% upside over the next year — a clear sign that some analysts still view Meta as an AI‑and‑ads growth story rather than a fully mature mega‑cap.
Morgan Stanley: “Buy the AI dip,” but with a lower target
On the other side of the same bullish coin, Morgan Stanley’s Brian Nowak cut his price target from $820 to $750 on Thursday, while maintaining an Overweight rating and calling Meta an “overlooked AI winner” after the recent pullback. [9]
Key points from his view:
- Meta’s 26% year‑over‑year revenue growth is being powered in part by AI‑driven ad algorithms that improve targeting and engagement. [10]
- He projects Meta’s revenue to reach around $285 billion by 2027 and sees a “floor” of roughly $30 EPS in 2026, assuming AI investments scale and margins are managed. [11]
- The stock’s forward P/E multiple has compressed from about 28× to 22×, even as the business outlook remains robust — one reason he sees the current valuation as attractive versus peers like Alphabet. [12]
Longer‑term forecasts: broad range, bullish skew
A detailed 24/7 Wall St. analysis published on December 11 underscores just how wide the range of outcomes is for Meta stock: [13]
- High Wall Street target:$1,117 per share
- Median target:$839.10
- Low target:$685
- Their own 1‑year price forecast:$875.46, implying ~35% upside from current levels
Most of these forecasts rest on the same thesis: Meta’s AI investments across Facebook, Instagram, Messenger, WhatsApp and Threads will sustain engagement and ad pricing enough to offset heavy capital expenditures and metaverse losses.
Fundamentals: An Ad Powerhouse Funding an AI Super‑Cycle
Meta’s recent earnings and guidance explain why many analysts remain constructive despite the stock’s wobble.
Q3 2025 by the numbers
Across multiple sources, Q3 2025 looked strong under the hood: [14]
- Revenue: about $51.24 billion, up 26% year‑over‑year, beating expectations.
- EPS: around $7.25, topping the $6.74 consensus.
- Net margin: roughly 31% on a trailing basis.
- Family of Apps (Facebook, Instagram, WhatsApp, Messenger): more than $50 billion of that revenue, showing the business is still overwhelmingly driven by ad‑supported social platforms.
- Reality Labs: about $470 million in revenue but a loss of $4.43 billion in the quarter, continuing a multi‑year pattern of heavy metaverse losses. [15]
Reported GAAP net income fell sharply year‑on‑year because Meta’s tax bill jumped from roughly $2.1 billion to nearly $19 billion, a one‑off distortion that made headline earnings look worse than the underlying operations. TechStock²
AI‑driven ad products already moving the needle
Meta keeps emphasizing that AI is not just a future bet; it’s already driving revenue:
- The Advantage+ suite of AI‑powered ad tools now has an annual revenue run rate above $60 billion, according to Meta’s own commentary cited in marketing‑industry coverage. [16]
- New AI‑assisted features for advertisers and creators on Facebook and Instagram — such as improved Partnership Ads tools and APIs for turning user‑generated content into ads — are helping brands lower customer‑acquisition costs and boost click‑through rates. [17]
For 2025, Meta expects Q4 revenue to land between $56 billion and $59 billion, driven primarily by continued strength in advertising, with AI‑enhanced targeting cited as a key tailwind. [18]
A massive capex shift toward AI
The other side of this coin is spending:
- Meta has raised its 2025 capex outlook from $66–72 billion to $70–72 billion, with the incremental billions earmarked largely for AI data centers and infrastructure hardware. [19]
- A recent analysis notes that Meta has told policymakers it plans to invest roughly $600 billion in U.S. infrastructure and jobs over the next three years, heavily skewed toward AI‑related build‑out. TechStock²
This scale of investment is central to both the bull case (“Meta is buying itself a durable AI moat”) and the bear case (“Meta is betting its balance sheet on an uncertain AI payoff”).
The AI Pivot: From Open Llama to Closed “Avocado”
One of the most important storylines for Meta this week is its strategic shift in AI.
“Avocado”: a new flagship, more closed model
Reporting summarized by TechStock² and other outlets indicates that Meta is: TechStock²
- Developing a new flagship AI model codenamed “Avocado”, expected to debut in spring 2026.
- Considering releasing Avocado as a closed model, where access is tightly controlled and monetized — closer to the OpenAI/Google playbook than Meta’s historically open‑source stance with Llama.
- Training Avocado using a mix of Meta data and third‑party models (such as Google’s Gemma, an OpenAI model dubbed “gpt‑oss,” and Alibaba’s Qwen), reflecting a pragmatic, mixed‑source approach.
This comes after internal disappointment with Llama 4, which reportedly failed to meet expectations and contributed to a reset in strategy and staffing. TechStock²
New leadership, internal tensions
The AI pivot is also reshaping Meta’s org chart:
- Alexandr Wang, founder of Scale AI, now serves as Chief AI Officer, brought in via a roughly $14.3 billion strategic deal with his startup. He is widely seen as a strong advocate of closed models and aggressive commercialization. TechStock²
- Longtime AI research leader Yann LeCun has left after resource disputes and a diminished emphasis on purely open‑source research. TechStock²
Investor reaction so far has been cautious rather than panicked. Some fear alienating developers who embraced open Llama models; others see a logical step toward monetizing huge AI outlays through enterprise products and paid APIs.
Metaverse Hangover: Budget Cuts and VR Price Hikes
Meta has also been busy shrinking and reshaping its metaverse bet.
Reality Labs: $70B+ in cumulative losses and a 30% budget cut
According to reports summarized by TS2 and others: TechStock²+1
- The Reality Labs (RL) division — responsible for Quest headsets, Horizon Worlds, Ray‑Ban smart glasses and AR projects — has racked up over $70 billion in operating losses over the past four years.
- As part of 2026 budgeting, Meta is preparing to cut RL’s budget by up to 30%, with job cuts and restructuring widely expected.
- Investors initially welcomed the plan; news of the prospective cuts added several percentage points to Meta’s market value when first reported. TechStock²+1
The message from management: Meta is not abandoning hardware, but it is re‑prioritizing toward AI‑driven devices (especially smart glasses) and away from the most speculative metaverse projects.
VR price increases and a slower hardware cadence
A leaked internal memo, reported by Business Insider and summarized by Entrepreneur, revealed that Meta plans to raise prices across parts of its VR lineup: [20]
- Meta remains the global VR market leader, with around 77% share in 2024.
- Executives Gabriel Aul and Ryan Cairns argued that higher device prices are necessary to build a “healthier” hardware business, rather than relying on any single hit product.
- The memo suggested Meta may slow the pace of new hardware releases and put more emphasis on “world‑class” software experiences for existing devices.
- The division has lost about $73 billion since 2021, and Bloomberg has reported that Reality Labs could face budget cuts of up to 30%, potentially leading to layoffs. [21]
For investors, the takeaway is that hardware is still strategic, but unlikely to be a profit center anytime soon. Its importance lies in anchoring Meta’s AI services in real‑world devices, not in generating standalone margins.
Product & Ad Tech Updates: AI Tools for Creators and Brands
On the product front, Meta is still rolling out incremental AI features that matter directly to its revenue engine.
A December 11 feature in Marketing Dive highlighted new AI‑powered updates to help brands manage creator partnerships: [22]
- Brands can now find user‑generated content and affiliate posts from Instagram creators in the Partnership Ads Hub, making it easier to turn successful organic content into paid ads.
- A new Facebook Partnership Ads API helps advertisers identify creator content suitable for partnership ads at scale.
- Meta says adding partnership ads to campaigns lowers cost per acquisition by about 19% and raises click‑through rates by about 13% on average.
- The company reports that 71% of consumers make a purchase within a few days of seeing creator content across Meta’s apps.
The article also reiterated that Q3 revenue grew 26% year‑over‑year to $51.24 billion, and that the Advantage+ AI ad suite has surpassed $60 billion in annualized revenue, reinforcing the idea that AI is already embedded in Meta’s core business, not just in R&D labs. [23]
Regulatory & Reputation Risks: Content Moderation and AI “Hallucinations”
Macro headlines matter too, and Meta found itself at the center of two sensitive debates this week.
Content takedowns around abortion and LGBTQ+ issues
A detailed Guardian investigation on December 11 reported that Meta has removed or restricted dozens of accounts belonging to abortion‑access providers, queer groups and reproductive‑health organisations across multiple countries in recent weeks. [24]
- Campaigners describe it as one of the “biggest waves of censorship” on Meta’s platforms in years, affecting more than 50 organisations worldwide.
- Examples include blocked abortion hotlines in countries where abortion is legal and bans on queer or sex‑positive accounts; Meta says its policies have not changed and that enforcement is based on rule violations, not on advocacy. [25]
Regardless of where one lands on the underlying issues, these controversies carry reputational and regulatory risk, especially in regions where lawmakers are already scrutinizing social‑media moderation.
U.S. state attorneys general warn on AI chatbots
Separately, dozens of U.S. state attorneys general sent a letter on December 10 to Meta and other major tech firms warning that their AI chatbots’ “delusional outputs” (hallucinations) could violate state laws and pose mental‑health risks. TechStock²
- The letter cited examples where chatbots appeared to encourage or validate users’ delusional beliefs, including in conversations related to self‑harm.
- It called for independent audits of AI systems and tougher oversight of how these tools are deployed.
Meta has yet to issue a detailed public response, but investors should assume higher compliance costs and possible product redesigns over time as regulators sharpen their focus on AI safety.
Technical Picture: Death Cross Flashes Caution
From a purely technical standpoint, Thursday brought a notable milestone: Meta just formed its first “death cross” since May, according to a Benzinga analysis published December 11. [26]
Key technical details:
- The 50‑day moving average has crossed below the 200‑day moving average, a traditional warning sign that momentum is cooling.
- META is hovering around $645–$650, with the $630–$650 zone identified as a critical support area. A sustained break below could invite more momentum‑driven selling. [27]
- Shorter‑term indicators:
- 8‑day SMA: around $655.07, currently below longer‑term averages.
- 20‑day SMA: near $630.25, acting as immediate support.
- MACD: negative (about ‑0.78), signaling fading upside momentum.
- RSI: roughly 48.6, suggesting neither extreme overbought nor oversold conditions. [28]
For a stock that led the megacap AI rally earlier in the year, this cooling technical profile is a reminder that expectations may have gotten ahead of near‑term catalysts — and that headlines can interact with chart levels in powerful ways.
What to Watch Before the Market Opens on December 12, 2025
Putting it all together, here are the key factors Meta investors should track heading into Friday’s session:
- Overnight Macro Tone & Futures
- U.S. equity futures are modestly mixed, with S&P 500 minis slightly higher and Nasdaq futures slightly lower, signaling a cautious but not panicked risk backdrop after a big Dow rally on Thursday. [29]
- Tech sentiment remains sensitive to huge AI‑related capex announcements across the sector, as shown by recent volatility around Oracle’s spending plans. [30]
- Price Action Around the $650 Strike
- Watch how META trades around $650 as the December 12 options expiration plays out. Heavy call activity at that strike (over 15,000 December 12 calls traded) could encourage “pinning” near that level as hedging flows rebalance. [31]
- Follow‑On Commentary About the AI Pivot
- Any additional leaks, internal memos or executive commentary around the Avocado model, the shift away from open‑source Llama, or the role of Chief AI Officer Alexandr Wang could move sentiment quickly — especially if they clarify monetization plans or allay fears about developer backlash. TechStock²
- Reaction to Metaverse Cuts and VR Price Hikes
- Investors initially cheered the prospect of Reality Labs budget cuts, but they’ll be watching for more concrete details — especially if internal restructuring or layoffs are confirmed. TechStock²+2Entrepreneur+2
- Any update on Quest or Ray‑Ban pricing or on the cadence of new hardware launches could shift expectations for the hardware business’s path to sustainability. [32]
- Ad‑Revenue & Product Data Points
- Look for incremental data on Instagram engagement, creator‑ad performance, and Advantage+ adoption. Analysts like Citizens are anchoring bullish targets explicitly on time spent metrics and AI‑driven monetization, so any sign of slowdown (or acceleration) could matter outsized for the stock. [33]
- Regulatory Headlines
- Further reaction from lawmakers, regulators, or advocacy groups to content moderation controversies or the state AGs’ AI chatbot letter could increase perceived regulatory risk and weigh on sentiment, even if they don’t immediately affect financials. [34]
- Technical Levels: 630 Support, 660 Resistance
- On many traders’ screens, $630–$650 is now a key battleground zone. Holding above that range would help neutralize the new death cross signal; a clean move back above $660–$670 would suggest bulls are regaining control. A breakdown through $630 could extend the recent downtrend. [35]
Bottom Line
As of the latest after‑hours trade on December 11, 2025, Meta’s stock price may look quiet — hovering in the low‑$650s — but the story behind the ticker is anything but.
- Fundamentals remain strong, with double‑digit revenue growth, robust AI‑driven ad products, and a still‑dominant social‑media franchise. [36]
- Strategy is shifting rapidly toward closed, monetizable AI models and disciplined metaverse spending, while VR hardware becomes more premium‑priced and slower‑moving. TechStock²+2Entrepreneur+2
- Risks span heavy AI capex, regulatory scrutiny, reputational issues around content moderation and a now‑cautious technical picture. [37]
For traders and long‑term investors alike, Friday’s December 12 session will be less about a single catalyst and more about how the market digests this complex mix — especially around the $650 options “gravity well”, the $630 support zone, and any new headlines around AI or Reality Labs.
References
1. stockanalysis.com, 2. stockanalysis.com, 3. stockanalysis.com, 4. www.investing.com, 5. www.nasdaq.com, 6. www.marketbeat.com, 7. www.marketbeat.com, 8. www.investing.com, 9. www.marketwatch.com, 10. www.marketwatch.com, 11. www.marketwatch.com, 12. www.marketwatch.com, 13. 247wallst.com, 14. www.marketbeat.com, 15. 247wallst.com, 16. www.marketingdive.com, 17. www.marketingdive.com, 18. 247wallst.com, 19. 247wallst.com, 20. www.entrepreneur.com, 21. www.entrepreneur.com, 22. www.marketingdive.com, 23. www.marketingdive.com, 24. www.theguardian.com, 25. www.theguardian.com, 26. www.benzinga.com, 27. www.benzinga.com, 28. www.benzinga.com, 29. www.marketwatch.com, 30. www.bloomberg.com, 31. www.nasdaq.com, 32. www.entrepreneur.com, 33. www.investing.com, 34. www.theguardian.com, 35. www.benzinga.com, 36. www.marketbeat.com, 37. www.benzinga.com
