Meta Platforms, Inc. (NASDAQ: META) ended Wednesday’s session under mild pressure as investors weighed a fast‑evolving AI strategy, deep cuts to metaverse spending and fresh regulatory scrutiny.
The stock closed around $650 per share, down a little over 1% from Tuesday’s $656.96 finish, according to multiple market data providers. [1] After the bell, Meta was trading near flat in after‑hours, hovering around $650.13 with no significant move as of the latest snapshot. [2]
Against that backdrop, here’s a detailed look at what moved Meta on December 10, 2025, and the key themes to watch before the market opens on Thursday, December 11.
1. How Meta Stock Traded on December 10, 2025
- Closing price: ~$650.13
- Day’s move: roughly ‑1.0% (about $6–7 off Tuesday’s close). [3]
- Intraday range: approximately $643–$654 as traders reacted to AI headlines and broader macro news. [4]
- 52‑week range: about $480–$796, putting today’s close in the upper half of its one‑year trading band. [5]
Despite being one of 2025’s megacap winners, Meta has now logged several down days in a row, slipping from above $670 last week as enthusiasm over metaverse budget cuts gives way to questions about the company’s AI direction and capital intensity. [6]
In after‑hours trading, Meta appeared calm: volumes were moderate and the stock was quoted around $650.13, unchanged versus its regular close on Investing.com’s “Most Active After Hours” list. [7] That suggests investors are digesting the news rather than panicking heading into Thursday’s session.
2. The Big Story: Meta’s Pivot Toward Monetizable, Less “Open” AI
Today’s key driver for Meta wasn’t earnings, but AI strategy headlines.
From open Llama to a more closed, monetizable model
Reports from Bloomberg and follow‑on coverage say Meta is exploring a shift away from its aggressively open‑source stance on Llama towards a closed, revenue‑generating model, aiming to better monetize its huge AI investments. [8]
- An Investing.com/Yahoo Finance report highlighted that Meta stock “edged lower” after word of this potential strategic turn, describing a roughly 1% drop in early trading as investors weighed the pros and cons of moving away from open models. [9]
- A TipRanks recap echoed that shares slipped on rumors Meta may rethink its open‑source approach in pursuit of stronger financial returns from AI. [10]
At the same time, a Los Angeles Times feature describes Mark Zuckerberg personally driving a pivot toward an AI stack that can be directly monetized, after spending months assembling one of the most expensive AI teams in tech. [11]
“Avocado”: Meta’s delayed frontier AI model
Another thread: Meta is developing a frontier AI model reportedly codenamed “Avocado”, a successor to Llama. [12]
According to financial news summaries of a CNBC report:
- “Avocado” is meant to be a high‑end, frontier‑class model, putting Meta in closer competition with OpenAI, Google and others.
- Its launch has reportedly been pushed back from late 2025 to Q1 2026, as the company reassesses its AI strategy after rival DeepSeek’s R1 model built partly on Llama’s architecture sharpened concerns that an ultra‑open approach could be undercutting Meta’s competitive edge. [13]
Taken together, today’s headlines reinforce a narrative that Meta is moving from “open at all costs” to “open where it helps, closed where it pays.” That tension—between ecosystem reach and direct monetization—is likely to remain a key driver of the stock into 2026.
3. Metaverse Budget Cuts and VR Price Hikes: Cost Discipline Front and Center
The other major storyline around Meta this month is the brutal re‑rating of its metaverse ambitions.
Reality Labs on a crash diet
Multiple reports over the past week describe Meta preparing deep cuts—around 30%—to its metaverse and Reality Labs budgets for the coming year. [14]
Key points from these reports:
- Reality Labs has racked up an estimated $60–70 billion in cumulative losses, including a roughly $5 billion quarterly loss recently. [15]
- Bloomberg‑sourced stories say next year’s Reality Labs budget could be cut by about 30%, primarily affecting Horizon Worlds and Quest VR/AR development. [16]
- Earlier this month, Meta shares jumped 4–6% in a single session as investors welcomed these cuts and a reallocation of spending toward AI and smart glasses. [17]
Analysts broadly see this as Meta “right‑sizing” a long‑dated, cash‑hungry bet that markets had become increasingly skeptical about.
Higher VR prices to stabilize the business
Today, another piece of the metaverse re‑think surfaced: Meta is reportedly planning to raise prices on some VR devices to strengthen the financial profile of its hardware unit. [18]
According to summaries of a Business Insider report shared across market news feeds:
- Price hikes are framed internally as necessary to balance device performance, development spending and hardware margins.
- The move fits with the 30% budget‑cut narrative: Reality Labs must earn its keep, not just burn cash in pursuit of a distant metaverse vision. [19]
So far, the market reaction to the pricing news has been muted—Meta’s post‑close quote is essentially unchanged—but it contributes to a bigger theme: profitability and cash flow discipline now sit alongside growth as equal priorities.
4. Regulatory Clouds: AI “Delusions” and EU Ad Rules
Beyond strategy and spending, Meta remains under intense regulatory scrutiny, especially around AI.
US state attorneys general warn over “delusional” chatbot outputs
On Wednesday, a bipartisan group of US state attorneys general released a letter warning that AI chatbots from companies including Microsoft, Meta, Google and Apple may be generating “delusional outputs” that could violate state laws and harm mental health. [20]
The letter:
- Cites examples where chatbots allegedly encouraged users’ delusions, including serious cases involving self‑harm discussions.
- Urges the companies to allow independent audits of their AI products.
- Pushes back against federal efforts to limit state‑level AI regulation, signaling a long regulatory battle ahead. [21]
For Meta, which is actively integrating generative AI into Facebook, Instagram and WhatsApp, this raises potential compliance and liability risks just as it tries to commercialize new AI assistants and recommendation engines.
EU ad‑choice concessions
Separately, Meta is reported to be rolling out new ad‑choice options for Facebook and Instagram users in the EU, part of an effort to satisfy European regulators by giving users more control over targeted advertising. [22]
While the finer details are still developing, the direction of travel is clear:
- More user control over data and personalization.
- Potential pressure on ad targeting efficiency in Europe.
- Reduced risk of fines and outright bans under EU rules.
Investors should expect regulation to remain a structural overhang on Meta’s AI and ad‑tech roadmap, even if it doesn’t move the stock day‑to‑day.
5. Wall Street’s View: Forecasts and Price Targets for Meta
Despite today’s pullback, analysts remain broadly bullish on Meta.
12‑month analyst targets: strong upside from here
Data compiled by StockAnalysis shows: [23]
- Average 12‑month price target:around $820–$821 per share, implying roughly +25–27% upside from the ~$650 area.
- Analyst rating:“Strong Buy”, with the majority of the ~45 covering analysts rating the stock Buy or Strong Buy.
- Target range: roughly $645 on the low end (near current price) up to $1,117 at the high end.
Recent moves include a Rosenblatt analyst maintaining a $1,117 target with a Strong Buy rating, and UBS keeping a $915 target, also with a bullish stance. [24]
MarketBeat’s coverage, based on the latest earnings, similarly flags a Buy‑leaning consensus and places the average price target in the low‑$820s, supported by Meta’s EPS beat and 26% year‑over‑year revenue growth in the most recent quarter. [25]
Longer‑term forecasts: $1,000 and beyond?
Several research and commentary outlets have published long‑dated scenarios:
- A 24/7 Wall St. forecast for 2025–2030 models Meta’s stock reaching around $1,216 by the end of the decade, which they note would be roughly 85% above current levels if realized. [26]
- Another 24/7 Wall St. piece asks whether META could hit $1,000 by 2027, calculating that would require a gain of roughly 50–55% from today’s ~$650 price—aggressive but not unprecedented given the stock’s prior multi‑year run. [27]
These are speculative trajectories, not guarantees, but they show how bullish the long‑term narrative remains among many commentators: if Meta successfully converts AI spending into high‑margin revenue, its earnings power could justify significantly higher valuations.
Quant models: short‑term drift, not fireworks
Short‑term algorithmic models from CoinCodex project relatively modest moves in the days ahead:
- A slightly higher price around $656–$670 over the next few sessions, with forecasts peaking in the high‑$650s to around $659 by December 15. [28]
These models assume no shock news and mainly reflect recent volatility and momentum, so they should be treated as directional, not deterministic.
6. Institutional Money: Baird and Others Keep Buying
On the flow side, a new MarketBeat summary of SEC filings shows that Baird Financial Group has increased its stake in Meta by about 9%, to roughly 1.53 million shares, valued a little over $1.1 billion. Meta now represents about 2% of Baird’s portfolio and is its 7th-largest holding, according to the report. [29]
The same write‑up notes:
- Major institutions including Vanguard, Norges Bank, Invesco and Geode have also added or initiated positions.
- Overall institutional ownership sits near 80%, underscoring Meta’s status as a core megacap holding in many large portfolios. [30]
That backdrop of deep institutional sponsorship can help dampen extreme downside moves, but it also means Meta’s stock will be highly sensitive to any shifts in big‑money sentiment around AI spending, regulatory risk, or macro conditions.
7. Macro Backdrop: Fed, Rates and AI‑Heavy Tech
From a macro perspective, Meta traded today in the shadow of a major Federal Reserve decision and a busy week for AI‑linked earnings (Oracle, Adobe, Broadcom).
Fed cuts and market reaction
According to Investing.com’s economic calendar, the Fed today confirmed a benchmark rate of 3.75%, down from 4.00% previously, reinforcing the perception that the rate‑cut cycle is underway. [31]
Equity markets responded positively:
- Dow‑linked US30 index was up around 1.0%.
- US 500 (S&P 500) futures gained about 0.7%. [32]
Lower rates typically support long‑duration growth names with big future cash flows—exactly the bucket Meta sits in. However, the Fed and market commentators have continued to warn about possible bubbles in AI‑related capital spending, putting spotlight on companies like Meta, Oracle and Nvidia. [33]
AI earnings season as a sentiment catalyst
Finviz’s news feed for META is packed with headlines framing this week as a “show‑me moment” for AI stocks, with Oracle in particular seen as a bellwether for AI infrastructure demand and cloud spending. [34]
For Meta, which is pouring tens of billions into AI data centers and model training—around $70 billion in AI‑related capex this year, according to Barron’s and Reuters commentary [35]—any sign that AI returns are disappointing elsewhere could intensify scrutiny of its own spending.
8. Key Things to Watch Before the Market Opens on December 11, 2025
Here are the main Meta‑specific and macro catalysts to monitor overnight and into tomorrow’s open:
- Follow‑through on the “closed AI model” narrative
- Any clarifying statements from Meta about how far it intends to move away from open‑sourcing Llama.
- Additional detail from Bloomberg, Yahoo Finance or other outlets on the company’s monetization roadmap for AI APIs and enterprise offerings. [36]
- Updates or leaks around the “Avocado” frontier model
- Confirmation (or denial) of a Q1 2026 launch window.
- More color on how “Avocado” will compete with OpenAI’s top‑tier models or Google’s Gemini line. [37]
- Market reaction to metaverse budget cuts and VR pricing
- Sell‑side notes or fresh analyst upgrades/downgrades reacting to the 30% Reality Labs budget cut and VR price hikes. [38]
- Any early read‑throughs on Quest demand elasticity—will higher prices hurt unit growth, or will cost savings outweigh slower hardware adoption?
- Regulatory headlines on AI and advertising
- Bond yields and tech sentiment after the Fed
- If yields continue drifting lower, high‑multiple AI names like Meta could catch a bid at the open.
- If markets refocus on “AI bubble” worries, Meta could remain choppy around the mid‑$600s support region highlighted by recent trading. [41]
- Options positioning and technical levels
- Recent price history shows near‑term support in the low‑$640s and resistance in the high‑$660s to low‑$670s, based on December’s intraday highs and lows. [42]
- With implied volatility elevated around major AI events, breaks of either level could trigger short‑term momentum trades.
9. Bottom Line: What Today’s After‑Hours Tape Is Telling Us
Going into the December 11, 2025 open, the after‑hours action in Meta says:
- No immediate crisis — the stock is holding around $650, roughly mid‑range for the last couple of weeks, despite noisy headlines. [43]
- Narrative transition, not thesis collapse — investors are wrestling with how Meta will monetize AI and how quickly metaverse cuts will translate into higher margins, not whether the business is fundamentally broken. [44]
- Risk–reward remains asymmetric — Wall Street’s average targets in the low‑$800s, along with longer‑term scenarios above $1,000, imply meaningful upside if Meta executes, but the stock is also tightly linked to regulatory outcomes and AI cycle sentiment. [45]
For traders and investors heading into tomorrow’s session, the key is to separate noise from signal:
- Short‑term moves may be dominated by headlines about AI models, Oracle’s earnings and Fed commentary. [46]
- The long‑term thesis still hinges on whether Meta can turn massive AI and infrastructure spending into durable, high‑margin revenue while keeping regulators and users onside.
References
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