As of December 9, 2025, Meta Platforms, Inc. (NASDAQ: META) is trading around $667 per share, giving the social media and AI giant a market capitalization of roughly $1.68 trillion. Over the past year the stock has traded between $479.80 and $796.25, and is up about 14% year-to-date, modestly outperforming the broader market but lagging some of the other “Magnificent Seven” names. [1]
Trading at roughly 28–30 times trailing 12‑month earnings and a PEG ratio near 1.5, Meta stock is priced as a premium growth story—but not at the nosebleed multiples seen at the height of the 2021 tech bubble. [2]
On December 9, 2025, several fresh developments are converging on Meta stock: deep metaverse spending cuts, an aggressive AI infrastructure build‑out, new EU ad‑targeting rules, a WhatsApp antitrust probe, record clean‑energy deals, and confirmation of a strategic smart‑glasses push. Below is a structured look at the latest news, forecasts and analyses investors need to know.
1. Meta Stock: Where It Stands Today
- Share price (Dec 9, 2025): ~$667
- Market cap: ~$1.68 trillion [3]
- 52‑week range: $479.80 – $796.25 [4]
- YTD total return: ~14.1% vs ~17% for the S&P 500 [5]
- Valuation: ~28.8x trailing EPS of $23.19 (TTM to Q3 2025) [6]
Despite a ~20% pullback from its August all‑time high near $789, Meta remains in a long‑term uptrend. Several recent articles describe the 2025 pullback as a “consolidation year” after Meta’s explosive 2023–24 rebound, with some commentators calling the stock a “superintelligent buy” at current levels given its AI optionality and strong core ad business. [7]
2. Q3 2025 Results: Strong Growth Masked by a One‑Time Tax Hit
Meta’s latest reported quarter (Q3 2025, released October 29) remains the fundamental anchor for current valuations:
- Revenue: $51.24 billion, up 26% year‑over‑year, a new quarterly record. [8]
- Advertising revenue: $50.08 billion, also up 26%, driven by higher ad impressions and higher prices per ad. [9]
- Operating cash flow: $30.0 billion for the quarter, highlighting the cash‑rich nature of the business. [10]
The headline numbers frightened some investors: GAAP net income plunged to $2.71 billion and diluted EPS dropped to $1.05, down sharply from prior quarters. The reason was not an operational collapse but a one‑time, non‑cash tax hit:
- Meta booked a $15.93 billion income tax charge tied to the U.S. “One Big Beautiful Bill Act.”
- Excluding that charge, management said net income would have been $18.64 billion and EPS about $7.25, which actually beat Wall Street expectations. [11]
Reality Labs, the metaverse division, remains a major drag:
- Reality Labs Q3 2025 operating loss: about $4.4 billion, bringing cumulative losses since 2021 to more than $70 billion. [12]
Management guided Q4 2025 revenue to $56–59 billion, pointing to continued strong ad demand but softer Reality Labs revenue into year‑end. [13]
3. Metaverse Spending Cuts: A Turning Point Investors Like
The single most important stock driver this week is Meta’s decision to slash Reality Labs spending:
- Bloomberg‑sourced reports say Meta plans to cut up to 30% of the metaverse budget starting in 2026, with potential layoffs in Horizon Worlds and Quest‑related teams. [14]
- Analysts estimate Reality Labs could lose about $18.5 billion in 2025, and that a 30% spending cut could add roughly $2 per share to 2026 EPS, a 6–7% boost vs current Street estimates. [15]
Market reaction has been decisive:
- Meta shares jumped 3–5% on the news, adding roughly $60–69 billion in market cap as investors cheered the renewed discipline. [16]
Recent analysis from Investor’s Business Daily, MarketWatch, Nasdaq and Yahoo Finance largely agrees on two points:
- Reality Labs has become a “black hole” of spending with little near‑term payoff.
- Re‑allocating capital to AI and smart glasses is seen as a net positive for shareholders, especially with Meta already sporting operating margins around 40% in its core Family of Apps business. [17]
For investors, the metaverse cuts change the narrative from “open‑ended cash burn” to “disciplined AI reinvestment from a position of strength.”
4. $600 Billion AI Infrastructure Bet: Bold, Expensive, and Central to the Story
Offsetting the metaverse cuts, Meta is embarking on one of the most aggressive capital‑spending programs in corporate history:
- In November, Meta formally announced that it will invest $600 billion in U.S. infrastructure and jobs by 2028, primarily to build AI‑ready data centers. [18]
- The plan includes a $27 billion financing deal with Blue Owl Capital for a major data center in Louisiana and at least $1.5 billion for a new Texas data center, bringing Meta’s footprint to 29 global data center sites. [19]
- Meta has already spent more than $52 billion on U.S. data center development since 2010; the new plan is an order of magnitude larger. [20]
CEO Mark Zuckerberg has repeatedly framed this as a bet on AI “superintelligence” and the infrastructure required to power it. [21]
The upside: if Meta’s AI assistants, ad tools, and on‑device models scale as hoped, the company could lock in a long‑duration advantage in AI compute and distribution, comparable to the lead it built in social media advertising.
The risk: capital expenditures could exceed $100 billion annually by 2026, according to some estimates, reigniting worries that Meta is again overspending on unproven technologies. [22]
5. Clean‑Energy Mega‑Deal: 2.5 GW of New Power for AI Data Centers
Supporting this AI data center build‑out, Meta just inked a major clean‑energy partnership:
- On December 8–9, NextEra Energy and Meta announced approximately 2.5 gigawatts (GW) of new clean‑energy contracts across the U.S. [23]
- The agreements include 11 solar power purchase agreements (PPAs) and two energy storage deals, expected to come online between 2026 and 2028. [24]
- In total, Meta will source about 2.3 GW of solar power and more than 165 MW of storage through these projects, building on roughly 500 MW of existing NextEra‑backed capacity. [25]
This deal dovetails with Meta’s stated goal of matching 100% of its electricity use with clean energy, and adds to a global portfolio that already totals about 15 GW of clean and renewable capacity contracted. [26]
From an investment standpoint, the NextEra agreements signal two things:
- AI workloads are power‑hungry, and Meta is proactively de‑risking its energy supply.
- The company is leaning into the narrative that AI growth and decarbonization can be aligned, which may help with regulators and ESG‑focused investors.
6. EU Regulation: DMA Ad Rules and a WhatsApp AI Antitrust Probe
6.1. New EU Ad‑Targeting Choices Under the DMA
The European Commission has now signed off on Meta’s commitments under the Digital Markets Act (DMA) after fining the company €200 million in April 2025 for its “consent‑or‑pay” ad model. [27]
Key changes:
- Starting January 2026, Facebook and Instagram users in the EU will be able to choose between:
- Full data sharing for fully personalized ads, or
- Reduced data sharing with a more limited level of ad personalization. [28]
- Users will no longer be forced into the binary choice of “pay for no ads or accept full tracking,” which EU regulators deemed non‑compliant. [29]
Europe accounts for roughly 23% of Meta’s revenue, so any hit to ad targeting there matters—but isn’t existential. [30]
Most analysts currently see the DMA changes as a manageable headwind: ads will likely become less precisely targeted for some users, but Meta’s global scale and AI‑driven ad systems should limit the revenue impact over time.
6.2. WhatsApp AI Antitrust Investigation
More concerning for the long term is a fresh EU antitrust probe into WhatsApp’s AI policy:
- In October 2025, Meta updated its WhatsApp Business API rules to ban most third‑party AI chatbots from using the channel, while keeping its own Meta AI chatbot live. [31]
- On December 4, the European Commission launched a formal antitrust investigation, saying the policy may block rival AI providers from reaching customers via WhatsApp, potentially breaching EU competition rules. [32]
- If Meta is found guilty, it could face fines of up to 10% of its global annual revenue, which based on 2024 figures could be in the $16 billion range. [33]
So far, markets have largely shrugged; Meta stock actually rose after the probe was announced, reflecting a view that EU cases often take years and that previous fines have been small relative to profits. [34]
Still, the WhatsApp investigation underscores a key structural risk: as Meta leans into AI, it will face closer scrutiny whenever it uses platform power to favor its own models.
7. Smart Glasses and the EssilorLuxottica Stake
Meta is also doubling down on AI‑powered wearables, particularly smart glasses:
- In July 2025, reports revealed Meta had acquired nearly a 3% stake (around €3.5 billion) in EssilorLuxottica, the Ray‑Ban parent and long‑time partner on smart glasses. [35]
- On December 9, an EssilorLuxottica board member confirmed that Meta holds at least 3% of the company, and possibly closer to 5%, though Meta has no board seat. [36]
- The partnership has already yielded Ray‑Ban Meta smart glasses and the newer Meta Ray‑Ban Display model, which add voice‑controlled Meta AI and, in some versions, a heads‑up display for navigation, messaging and live translation. [37]
EssilorLuxottica has said Ray‑Ban Meta sales surpassed two million pairs by early 2025, and industry forecasts point to smart glasses as a key growth category heading into 2026. [38]
For investors, the Essilor stake signals that Meta is treating AI wearables as a core, strategic hardware category, not just an experiment—and doing so with a premium eyewear partner instead of building its own fashion brand from scratch.
8. AI Roadmap: From Llama to “Avocado”
Meta’s AI story is no longer just about open‑source Llama models:
- Recent reporting says Meta is working on a new frontier AI model codenamed “Avocado,” planned for release in Q1 2026. [39]
- Unlike the Llama family, Avocado may be proprietary, giving Meta more control over monetization while still maintaining open‑source offerings for developers. [40]
- Meta is also scaling a “Superintelligence Lab” and has invested $14.3 billion for a 49% stake in Scale AI, signaling its ambition to be a first‑tier frontier‑model player alongside OpenAI and Google DeepMind. [41]
At the same time, critics note that Llama 4 received a lukewarm reception, and some high‑profile AI leaders, including chief scientist Yann LeCun, are spinning out. [42]
The net investor takeaway: Meta is spending heavily to stay in the AI race, and the next 12–24 months will be crucial in proving whether these models can drive incremental revenue in ads, business messaging, and consumer subscriptions.
9. Dividend, Buybacks and Balance Sheet
Meta is increasingly acting like a mature mega‑cap while still growing like a tech company:
- On December 3, 2025, the board declared a quarterly cash dividend of $0.525 per share, payable December 23 to shareholders of record on December 16. [43]
- At the current share price, that implies a forward yield of roughly 0.3%, with plenty of room for growth given Meta’s low payout ratio. [44]
- Meta continues to run net cash on its balance sheet and has an active share‑repurchase program, which has been a major EPS driver in recent years. [45]
While the dividend is small, its steady increase from the initial $0.50 per share launched in 2024 is a clear signal that Meta intends to return more cash to shareholders over time, even as it funds gigantic AI and infrastructure projects. [46]
10. Wall Street Forecasts: Still a “Strong Buy”
Despite volatility and concerns about AI capex, Wall Street remains overwhelmingly bullish:
- MarketBeat: 51 analysts, “Moderate Buy” rating, average 12‑month price target $819.43 (about 23% upside), with targets ranging from $605 to $1,117. [47]
- TipRanks: 43 analysts over the last 3 months, “Strong Buy” consensus, average target $832.06, implying ~24% upside, with a high of $1,117 and a low around $655. [48]
- StockAnalysis: 43 covering analysts, “Strong Buy” rating and an average target $820.91 (~23% upside). [49]
- Benzinga aggregation: consensus target around $826, with the current Street‑high $1,117 target reiterated by Rosenblatt on December 5, 2025. [50]
Some algorithmic and technical models are more cautious. For example, CoinCodex’s pattern‑based forecast currently expects Meta’s price to decline over the next year, even though it predicts little change in the very near term—underscoring how widely opinions can diverge depending on methodology. [51]
On balance, though, human analysts see mid‑20% upside over 12 months, assuming:
- High‑teens revenue growth,
- Normalized EPS in the high‑$20s by 2026, and
- Better discipline around metaverse spending.
11. Key Risks and What to Watch Next
11.1. Regulatory and Political Risk
- EU DMA enforcement and the WhatsApp AI antitrust probe could result in fines, product changes, or forced interoperability that slow monetization in key markets. [52]
- As Meta intertwines AI with messaging, social feeds and ad targeting, privacy and competition regulators globally are likely to stay aggressive.
11.2. AI Capex and Return on Investment
- The $600 billion U.S. investment pledge is both a moat and a risk: if AI demand falls short or margins compress, shareholders could face years of depressed free cash flow. [53]
- A growing chorus of institutional investors, including Aware Super’s CIO, are warning about “orange lights” in AI financing as circular funding and leveraged bets proliferate. [54]
11.3. Competition in AI and Social
- Meta faces fierce competition from OpenAI, Google, Anthropic, Apple, Snapchat, TikTok and a wave of new AI‑first startups.
- If Meta’s Llama/Avocado roadmap underperforms, it may end up renting more AI infrastructure from rivals or lose developer mindshare. [55]
11.4. Core Ad Cyclicality
- Meta still derives almost all of its revenue from advertising; macro slowdowns or shifts in ad budgets could hit results despite AI tailwinds. [56]
12. Outlook: Is Meta Stock Attractive at ~$667?
Putting it all together:
- Fundamentals: Underlying Q3 EPS (~$7.25 ex tax charge) and 26% revenue growth show a business still compounding at a high rate. [57]
- Capital allocation: Metaverse spending cuts, a modest dividend, and continued buybacks all point toward more shareholder‑friendly discipline. [58]
- Valuation: Around 28–30x trailing earnings and a PEG near 1.5, Meta is not cheap, but sits in the range many growth investors view as “fair for a quality compounder.” [59]
- Street view: With a Strong/Moderate Buy consensus and ~23–25% implied upside from major brokerages, Wall Street still sees room for meaningful gains over the next year. [60]
For investors who believe:
- Meta can translate its AI investments into higher ad ROI, new subscription products, and smart‑glasses adoption, and
- Regulatory headwinds and AI capex can be managed without destroying margins,
then today’s price around $667 may offer a reasonable entry point with asymmetric long‑term upside—albeit with substantial volatility risk.
For more cautious investors, the combination of regulatory overhangs, unprecedented AI capex, and already‑elevated valuation suggests that waiting for a deeper pullback or clearer evidence of AI monetization may be prudent.
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation, or a solicitation to buy or sell any security. Always do your own research or consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.
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