Meta Platforms, Inc. (NASDAQ: META) is back at the center of the market’s AI debate. Since its volatile third‑quarter 2025 earnings in late October, the story around META stock has shifted from pure concern over gigantic AI and infrastructure bills to a more nuanced discussion about metaverse cuts, AI wearables, regulation in Europe, and what all of this means for 2026 and beyond.
Much of that reassessment crystallized around November 21, 2025, when fresh earnings revisions and new sentiment data hit, and has been followed by a stream of strategy updates and analyst forecasts that investors are parsing today.
Below is a detailed, news‑driven overview of META stock from November 21, 2025 through today (December 11, 2025), including current price, the latest corporate moves, and what Wall Street thinks happens next.
1. META stock today: price, valuation and recent performance
As of intraday trading on December 11, 2025, Meta Platforms stock trades around $650 per share, giving the company a market capitalization of roughly $1.8 trillion and a trailing price‑to‑earnings ratio near 31.5x.
Over the last 12 months, META has traded in a 52‑week range of about $479.80 to $796.25, putting today’s price roughly 18% below its August record high near $796. [1]
Despite that pullback, multi‑year performance remains extraordinary: shares have more than doubled over the last two years and are up well over 400% from their late‑2022 lows, when the original metaverse spending spree and ad‑recession fears crushed the stock. [2]
Meta has also transitioned into a more “mature mega‑cap” profile:
- Dividend: The company now pays a quarterly dividend of about $0.52 per share (roughly $2.10 annually, ~0.3% yield at current prices), with the latest ex‑dividend date scheduled for December 15, 2025. [3]
- Capital return: Meta authorized a $50 billion buyback earlier this year and has combined large repurchases with dividends; in Q2 2025 alone, it repurchased nearly $9.8 billion of stock and paid about $1.3 billion in dividends. [4]
In other words, META is trading like a premium, cash‑generative AI and social‑media giant rather than a speculative metaverse bet — but the market is still wrestling with how much is too much AI spending.
2. Why November 21, 2025 matters for META stock
Q3 2025 earnings: huge revenue, huge tax hit, and bigger AI bills
Meta’s Q3 2025 results on October 29 set the stage for everything that followed:
- Revenue: About $51.2 billion, up 26% year‑over‑year, comfortably ahead of estimates around $49–49.5 billion. [5]
- Users: Daily active people across Meta’s family of apps reached roughly 3.54 billion, up 8% vs. a year earlier. [6]
- GAAP earnings: Net income plunged 83%, with GAAP EPS of $1.05 after a massive $15.9–16 billion one‑time U.S. tax charge tied to 2025 tax reform (“One Big Beautiful Bill”). [7]
- Underlying earnings: Excluding that charge, Meta would have reported about $7.25 in EPS, beating consensus expectations and reflecting strong operating performance. [8]
- Guidance: Management raised 2025 capital expenditure guidance again to roughly $70–72 billion, largely for AI infrastructure, and signaled even higher expense growth in 2026 due to accelerated depreciation and AI hiring. [9]
The result: despite a revenue beat and robust engagement, the stock dropped around 8–10% in after‑hours and early trading as investors focused on soaring AI capex and 2026 expense guidance. [10]
November 21, 2025: Estimates trimmed, sentiment measured, price stabilizes
By November 21, 2025, the first wave of hot‑take reactions gave way to more measured analysis:
- Zacks Research EPS cut: On November 21, Zacks Research trimmed its Q4 2025 EPS estimate for Meta from $7.55 to $7.51 and kept the stock at “Hold.” Zacks still expects full‑year 2025 earnings of roughly $26.70 per share, and notes that Meta had recently delivered Q3 non‑GAAP EPS of $7.25 versus a $6.74 consensus along with 26.2% revenue growth and a 30.9% net margin. [11]
- Consensus still bullish: That same note highlighted that, across brokerages, Meta carries a “Moderate/Strong Buy” consensus with a consensus price target around $825 at that time. [12]
- Social‑media sentiment split: Also on November 21, Quiver Quantitative published an analysis of investor chatter on X (formerly Twitter). It found growing concern about Meta’s “hefty” AI capex and short‑term profitability, but also a camp of long‑term bulls arguing that the sell‑off could be a buying opportunity given strong ad fundamentals and user growth. [13] Quiver also reported:
- A median 12‑month price target of about $840, based on 33 recent analyst targets.
- Dozens of buy or overweight ratings, with no recent sell ratings. [14]
- Price action: In broader market trading on November 21, Reuters noted Meta shares gained about 0.9% during a strong risk‑on session for U.S. stocks, a sign that some investors were starting to look through the immediate AI spending shock. [15]
From that date forward, the conversation has been less about whether Meta is “broken” and more about how fast it can convert its AI bets into earnings growth while reining in the metaverse drag.
3. Strategy since late November: metaverse cuts, AI wearables and EU rules
3.1 Metaverse budget cuts: Reality Labs under the microscope
Since late November, a series of reports have confirmed that Meta is planning to cut metaverse spending significantly, particularly within its Reality Labs hardware division.
- A Bloomberg‑sourced report, echoed by MarketWatch and others, said CEO Mark Zuckerberg is considering cutting Reality Labs’ budget by up to 30%, shifting capital away from VR headsets and into AI initiatives and smart glasses. [16]
- MarketWatch highlighted analyst commentary that Reality Labs generated only around $470 million of revenue but booked about $4.4 billion in losses in Q3, prompting one Mizuho analyst to label the unit a “black hole” of spending. [17]
The market clearly welcomed the move:
- Business Insider reported that news of metaverse cuts sparked a single‑day surge of up to 4% in the stock, adding about $69 billion in market cap and lifting Meta’s valuation to roughly $1.68 trillion at the time. [18]
- A 24/7 Wall St piece noted that META had already fallen about 26% from its peak amid AI spending worries, and argued that a 30% reduction in Reality Labs spending could be a structural turning point for sentiment rather than a red flag. [19]
A later analysis on Nasdaq, sourced from MarketBeat, framed the cuts as a classic capital reallocation story: reduce investment in a low‑return business (VR headsets) and focus on AI smart glasses and core ad products, potentially boosting free cash flow and 2026 EPS by a couple of dollars per share. [20]
3.2 VR price hikes and slower hardware cycles
At the same time, Meta is trying to make its remaining metaverse efforts more economically sustainable.
A December 10 leak of an internal memo reported by Business Insider revealed that Reality Labs plans to raise prices on its VR devices, including the Meta Quest lineup, and extend the replacement cycle of existing headsets. [21]
According to that memo:
- Executives said devices would be “more premium in price” going forward to reflect tariffs, content subsidies and other costs.
- Meta will try to pair those higher prices with higher‑quality software experiences, even if that means slower hardware refreshes.
- The division remains committed to VR but wants a “healthier business” that isn’t existentially tied to any single headset launch. [22]
This sits neatly alongside the metaverse budget cuts: Meta is not abandoning immersive tech, but it is prioritizing profitability and focus over rapid, loss‑making expansion.
3.3 AI wearables: the Limitless acquisition
While trimming traditional VR, Meta is doubling down on AI wearables:
- On December 5, Reuters reported that Meta had acquired Limitless, an AI‑wearables startup best known for a pendant‑style device that records real‑world conversations and turns them into searchable transcripts and summaries. [23]
- Limitless’ founders said they share Meta’s vision of “personal superintelligence” and will help integrate their technology into Meta’s next‑generation AI hardware. [24]
- Meta recently hired long‑time Apple design executive Alan Dye and continues to build out its AI‑powered Ray‑Ban and Oakley smart glasses, in partnership with EssilorLuxottica. [25]
Taken together, Reality Labs is being reshaped from an open‑ended metaverse bet into a tighter portfolio centered on AI assistants in everyday devices — something investors generally consider a more tangible monetization path than virtual worlds alone.
3.4 European regulation: less personalized ads and DMA risk
Regulation is the other big variable for Meta’s long‑term earnings power, especially in Europe:
- In its Q2 2025 outlook, Meta’s CFO warned that feedback from the European Commission (EC) on the company’s “Less Personalized Ads” (LPA) product under the Digital Markets Act (DMA) could force further changes that might “have a significant negative impact” on European revenue as soon as late 2025. [26]
- On December 8, the European Commission and Meta announced that, starting January 2026, Facebook and Instagram users in the EU will have an explicit choice between:
- Allowing full data sharing for fully personalized ads, or
- Sharing less data and seeing more limited personalization. [27]
This change follows a €200 million (≈$266 million) fine for Meta’s earlier “consent or pay” model and is widely seen as a test case for how much ad targeting power Big Tech will retain under the DMA. [28]
For investors, it means potential pressure on European ARPU in 2026 and beyond — one of the key bear‑side talking points when valuing META at ~30x earnings.
4. Wall Street’s latest forecasts for META stock
Despite heightened scrutiny of AI spending and regulation, analysts remain broadly bullish.
4.1 12‑month price targets and ratings
Different aggregators give slightly different numbers, but they all tell a similar story:
- StockAnalysis:
- 43–45 covering analysts currently assign Meta a “Strong Buy” rating.
- The average price target is about $820.91, implying roughly +26% upside from recent prices.
- The target range runs from around $645 on the low end to $1,117 on the high end. [29]
- TipRanks:
- Based on 43 Wall Street analysts over the last three months, TipRanks also calls META a “Strong Buy”, with 36 Buy, 6 Hold and 1 Sell rating.
- The average 12‑month price target is $832.06, with a high forecast of $1,117 and a low around $655, equating to ~26.6% expected upside from recent levels near $657. [30]
- Benzinga / Quiver data:
- Benzinga’s compilation shows a consensus target near $826, with the most bullish call coming from Rosenblatt Securities at $1,117 (reiterated on December 5) and one of the lower major targets from UBS in the high‑$600s. [31]
- Quiver Quantitative notes a median target around $840, with multiple recent overweight/buy ratings from firms like Cantor Fitzgerald, RBC, JP Morgan, and Truist. [32]
In other words, the Street’s base case is that META reclaims or exceeds $800 over the next year, with a handful of strategists openly calling for $1,000+ over the next couple of years if AI bets pay off. [33]
4.2 Earnings and revenue growth expectations
Analysts are building those price targets on continued double‑digit top‑line growth and healthy EPS expansion, even after heavy AI spending:
- StockAnalysis consensus:
- Projects 2025 revenue of about $203 billion, up roughly 23–24% from 2024.
- Sees 2026 revenue around $240 billion, implying another ~18% growth.
- Expects EPS to rise from about $23.9 (2024) to 25.5 (2025) and 30.7 (2026), roughly 7% and 20% annual EPS growth, respectively. [34]
- 24/7 Wall St long‑term model:
- Estimates 2025 revenue of roughly $183 billion and net income of $62 billion, growing to about $275 billion revenue and over $91 billion net income by 2030.
- Their in‑house META price target is $875.46 for 2025 (≈33% upside), rising to $1,216.82 by 2030, about 85% above current levels. [35]
Zacks, for its part, now expects 2025 EPS around $26.70 and Q1 2026 EPS near $6.34, but keeps a “Hold” rating, reflecting more caution about near‑term volatility even as the long‑term story remains solid. [36]
5. The bull case: why many see META as a long‑term AI winner
From November 21 onward, most constructive analyses of META stock revolve around a few core themes.
5.1 A dominant, growing ad machine
Even amid regulatory noise and metaverse drama, the core Family of Apps business is booming:
- Q2 2025 revenue rose 22% year‑over‑year to about $47.5 billion, with ad impressions up 11% and average price per ad up 9%. Operating margin hit 43%. [37]
- Q3 2025 revenue accelerated to about $51.2 billion, +26% YoY, with ad revenue also up 26%. Operating margin remained around 40% despite huge AI investments. [38]
With 3.5+ billion daily users across Facebook, Instagram, WhatsApp, Messenger and Threads, Meta still has unmatched reach and targeting power in digital advertising, especially for performance marketers. [39]
5.2 Efficiency, free cash flow and shareholder returns
After the brutal 2022 sell‑off, Zuckerberg declared 2023 Meta’s “Year of Efficiency”, and that mantra continues to shape the bull narrative:
- 24/7 Wall St points out that free cash flow (FCF) climbed to about $43 billion in 2023 and over $52 billion in 2024, as Meta trimmed headcount and sharpened spending discipline even while investing heavily in AI. [40]
- The combination of strong FCF, a new dividend, and aggressive buybacks makes META look increasingly like an AI‑enabled cash machine rather than a speculative growth stock. [41]
If metaverse cuts succeed in shaving billions off Reality Labs losses while ad and AI revenue keep compounding, bulls argue that FCF could grow significantly even with high capex.
5.3 AI super‑cycle and new products
Meta’s AI investments are aimed at multiple revenue levers:
- Ad performance: Better models improve targeting and measurement, which can justify higher ad prices and budgets.
- AI assistants and agents: Features like Meta AI, integrated into apps and potentially into Ray‑Ban glasses and Limitless‑style wearables, could create new usage and monetization opportunities. [42]
- Infra and open‑source models: Meta’s open‑source Llama models and next‑gen AI infrastructure may unlock indirect value by making its platforms more attractive to developers and advertisers.
Many bullish research notes argue that AI will ultimately increase Meta’s earning power, and that current spending is the price of maintaining a seat at the very top of the AI ecosystem. [43]
5.4 Valuation reset after a 20–25% drawdown
Several commentators highlight that META’s pullback from the $790s to the $600s has de‑risked the valuation:
- 24/7 Wall St estimates that after the sell‑off, META trades at about 29x trailing earnings, modest by mega‑cap AI standards given its growth and margins. [44]
- Technical commentary (for example from Barron’s and MarketWatch) notes that the stock is down roughly 13% over the last three months, with some indicators suggesting a near‑term bottom may be forming. [45]
For bulls, a still‑dominant business, double‑digit revenue growth, rising dividends, and a “reasonable” multiple make META an attractive long‑term AI compounder.
6. The bear case: capex, regulation and execution risk
Not everyone is convinced. Several recent analyses and opinion pieces build a credible bear or cautious thesis.
6.1 AI capex and 2026 expense shock
The biggest concern is that AI spending could outrun even Meta’s enormous cash generation:
- Meta now expects 2025 capex of $70–72 billion, its third upward revision this year, with management warning that 2026 expense growth will exceed 2025’s due mainly to AI infrastructure and compensation for newly hired technical staff. [46]
- AP and Investopedia both emphasized that investors punished the stock in October because of those higher‑than‑expected 2026 expenses, not because the core business is weak. [47]
Some bearish or skeptical analysts, including several on Seeking Alpha, have described Meta as a “Strong Sell” on the grounds that:
- Free cash flow could fall meaningfully in 2026 as capex peaks.
- The company has locked itself into long‑dated capital commitments (data centers, custom chips, AI clusters) that may have uncertain long‑term returns. [48]
6.2 Regulatory and legal overhang
Regulation is another major risk factor:
- The DMA‑driven changes to ad personalization in Europe — combined with existing fines and the possibility of additional restrictions on data use — could weigh on European revenue and margins from 2026 onward. [49]
- AP notes that Meta faces youth safety lawsuits and a major U.S. antitrust case that could, in extreme scenarios, force the company to spin off Instagram or WhatsApp — a tail‑risk, but one that investors can’t completely ignore. [50]
Even if worst‑case outcomes are unlikely, the constant regulatory pressure can limit monetization options and require costly product changes.
6.3 Culture and execution risks in AI
Recent reporting also raises questions about internal dynamics as Meta races to build “personal superintelligence”:
- Bloomberg has described an AI talent war in Silicon Valley, with Meta paying top‑tier compensation to lure researchers and engineers into its superintelligence lab. [51]
- A widely cited New York Post report says Meta is grappling with tensions between newly hired AI “brainiacs” and long‑time Zuckerberg loyalists, fueling concern about execution and strategy clarity. [52]
While these accounts should be treated cautiously, skeptics argue that massive, fast‑moving AI programs are inherently hard to manage, and Meta’s hit‑or‑miss history with non‑ad projects (like the metaverse) is a reminder that not every grand vision pays off.
6.4 Hedge fund and insider selling
Finally, skeptics point to the behavior of large shareholders and insiders:
- 24/7 Wall St reports that many hedge funds aggressively trimmed META holdings in Q3 2025, often as profit‑taking after a big run, but still enough to qualify as a 26% peak‑to‑trough correction in the stock. [53]
- Quiver Quantitative notes that over the last six months, Meta insiders executed hundreds of stock sales and virtually no open‑market purchases, while many members of Congress have been net buyers of the stock. [54]
None of this proves a bearish thesis on its own, but combined with high capex and regulatory risk, it fuels the argument that Meta may currently be in a “show me” phase where expectations are high and room for error is limited.
7. Key catalysts to watch after November 21, 2025
Investors tracking META from November 21 onward are watching several upcoming milestones:
- Q4 2025 earnings and 2026 guidance (expected Jan 28, 2026):
- Street models imply continued revenue growth and strong ad demand, but the exact 2026 capex and expense outlook could drive a major move in the stock either way. [55]
- Implementation of EU ad‑choice changes (January 2026):
- Adoption rates for the lower‑personalization option in Europe will be an early indicator of revenue impact and could inform regulatory debates elsewhere. [56]
- Concrete details on Reality Labs cuts:
- Investors will want to see specific budget numbers, updated loss projections, and clarity on the balance between VR headsets and AI glasses. [57]
- Integration plan for Limitless and AI wearables:
- How quickly Meta can bring Limitless‑style memory and transcription features into Ray‑Ban or new devices — and how those are monetized — will shape the narrative around AI hardware. [58]
- Macro backdrop and interest rates:
- A more dovish Fed with lower long‑term yields typically supports high‑growth, cash‑rich tech stocks, including Meta; conversely, any renewed inflation scare could pressure valuation multiples. [59]
8. Bottom line
From November 21, 2025 through today, the story of Meta Platforms stock has evolved from a simple “AI spending panic” to a far more complex mix of:
- Strong core ad growth and record‑high revenues,
- Huge, front‑loaded AI and infrastructure investments,
- A strategic retreat from unprofitable metaverse bets,
- Bold pushes into AI wearables and assistants, and
- Intensifying regulatory and political scrutiny, especially in Europe and the U.S.
Wall Street’s consensus is still decisively bullish, with mid‑$800s targets and long‑term models that easily justify $1,000+ if Meta delivers on its AI vision and keeps spending under control. [60]
But the path there is unlikely to be smooth. For now, META looks like a stock where short‑term volatility and headline risk are the price of owning a central player in the AI race.
References
1. www.barchart.com, 2. www.barchart.com, 3. stockanalysis.com, 4. investor.atmeta.com, 5. www.gurufocus.com, 6. apnews.com, 7. www.gurufocus.com, 8. www.investopedia.com, 9. www.investopedia.com, 10. www.investopedia.com, 11. www.marketbeat.com, 12. www.marketbeat.com, 13. www.quiverquant.com, 14. www.quiverquant.com, 15. www.reuters.com, 16. www.marketwatch.com, 17. www.marketwatch.com, 18. www.businessinsider.com, 19. 247wallst.com, 20. www.nasdaq.com, 21. www.businessinsider.com, 22. www.businessinsider.com, 23. www.reuters.com, 24. www.reuters.com, 25. www.reuters.com, 26. investor.atmeta.com, 27. www.theverge.com, 28. www.theverge.com, 29. stockanalysis.com, 30. www.tipranks.com, 31. www.benzinga.com, 32. www.quiverquant.com, 33. 247wallst.com, 34. stockanalysis.com, 35. 247wallst.com, 36. www.marketbeat.com, 37. investor.atmeta.com, 38. finance.yahoo.com, 39. investor.atmeta.com, 40. 247wallst.com, 41. investor.atmeta.com, 42. en.wikipedia.org, 43. 247wallst.com, 44. 247wallst.com, 45. www.barrons.com, 46. investor.atmeta.com, 47. www.investopedia.com, 48. seekingalpha.com, 49. www.theverge.com, 50. apnews.com, 51. www.bloomberg.com, 52. nypost.com, 53. 247wallst.com, 54. www.quiverquant.com, 55. stockanalysis.com, 56. www.theverge.com, 57. www.marketwatch.com, 58. www.reuters.com, 59. www.marketwatch.com, 60. www.tipranks.com
