MEXICO CITY — December 20, 2025. The Mexico Stock Exchange (Bolsa Mexicana de Valores, BMV) heads into the final stretch of the year with a classic emerging-market cocktail: a still-strong 2025 rally, a choppy December tape, and a growing debate over whether cheaper money (thanks to Banxico) will keep lifting equities—or whether inflation shocks and trade risks will force a pause that cools the party.
With Mexican markets closed on Saturday, the freshest “today” snapshot is Friday’s close. Mexico’s benchmark equity gauge—the S&P/BMV IPC, which tracks the largest and most liquid stocks listed on the BMV—ended the week hovering around the 64,000 level, posting a modest Friday gain but a weekly pullback. [1]
BMV market wrap: A down week, but 2025 still looks like a breakout year
Mexico’s S&P/BMV IPC finished Friday at 63,966.98, up about 0.25% on the day, but down 1.15% on the week—its second weekly decline in three weeks—after a run that has repeatedly flirted with record territory in late 2025. [2]
What makes the current setup interesting is the contrast between the short-term wobble and the bigger picture:
- December remains positive (as of Friday’s snapshot), with the index still up on the month. [3]
- 2025 remains a standout: multiple market summaries and strategists describe this year as among the strongest for Mexican equities in more than a decade, with the IPC approaching its best performance since the post-crisis rebound era. [4]
That “two-speed” feel—near-term caution atop a longer-term bull run—shows up across the micro stories driving the tape right now.
Biggest Mexico Stock Exchange movers: Volaris takes off, Peñoles shines, Televisa stumbles
Friday’s session was less about a broad market melt-up and more about stock-specific shocks and sector rotations.
Top gainers highlighted in local market coverage included:
- Volaris (Controladora Vuela) surging in the double digits.
- Bolsa Mexicana de Valores (BMV’s own listed shares) jumping sharply.
- Industrias Peñoles rising strongly (supported by metals tailwinds). [5]
Notable laggards included:
- TEAK (paper/wood products) with a steep drop,
- Grupo Televisa sliding,
- Alpek weakening. [6]
The week’s losers list also leaned defensive in places, with names like Orbia, La Comer, América Móvil, Televisa, Grupo México, and Walmex cited among the largest weekly decliners in some wrap coverage. [7]
The headline corporate catalyst: Volaris and Viva Aerobus move toward a merger
The single most newsy equity catalyst linked to Friday’s action was Volaris.
Reuters reported that Mexico’s low-cost carriers Volaris and Viva Aerobus plan to merge under a new holding group (to be called Grupo Mas Vuelos), aiming to improve negotiating leverage on aircraft acquisition and leasing—typically one of the largest cost lines for airlines. Volaris shares jumped sharply on the news, and the combined airlines would control a dominant share of Mexico’s domestic passenger market, putting antitrust scrutiny front and center. [8]
This matters for the Mexico Stock Exchange beyond just one ticker: airlines sit at the intersection of consumer demand, tourism, peso dynamics, and regulatory risk—the same crossroads that will likely define BMV sector leadership into 2026.
Banxico cuts to 7%: Lower rates help stocks, but the “pause” debate is now the main event
Mexico’s central bank, Banco de México (Banxico), cut its benchmark rate by 25 basis points to 7.00%, effective December 19. The decision was not unanimous, and Banxico also revised up parts of its near-term inflation forecast path while still projecting inflation convergence toward the 3% target by Q3 2026. [9]
That single move sends two simultaneous messages to the Mexico Stock Exchange:
- Equities like lower rates (all else equal). Cheaper funding, a lower discount rate on future earnings, and relative attractiveness versus fixed income can support valuations.
- But Banxico is increasingly telegraphing that the easy part of the easing cycle may be done.
Why “pause risk” matters for the BMV in 2026
Several research notes and market observers converged on the idea that Banxico may slow or pause further cuts early next year.
- BBVA Research argued the latest guidance “clearly signaled” the easing cycle is effectively on hold (though not necessarily over), citing uncertainty around an inflation shock in early 2026 tied to recently approved fiscal measures and other price pressures. [10]
- Scotiabank similarly read the statement as opening the door to a pause, while still expecting additional cuts next year and projecting a 6.50% policy rate by end‑2026 in its base case. [11]
For Mexico equities, this isn’t just a macro footnote. If rate cuts pause while inflation jitters persist, the market’s leadership can shift quickly—from high‑beta cyclicals to cash‑flow defensives, from long-duration “growth” to shorter-duration balance‑sheet strength.
2026 Mexico Stock Exchange forecasts: Where strategists see the S&P/BMV IPC landing
If you line up the major 2026 outlooks circulating this week, a rough consensus emerges: upside remains, but it may be lower and bumpier than the 2025 run.
Here are three widely cited reference points:
BX+ (Ve Por Más): 69,693 target for end‑2026
Grupo Financiero BX+ set a 2026 target of 69,693 for the S&P/BMV IPC. Their thesis leans on valuation support (they cite an IPC P/E around the mid‑teens and discounted vs. U.S. multiples), expectations of healthier economic momentum into 2026, and catalysts like major sporting events. They also flag key risks, including U.S. trade policy uncertainty and inflation persistence. [12]
Actinver (via El Economista): 71,000 points on World Cup + consumption impulse
El Economista reported Actinver strategists projecting 71,000 for the IPC in 2026, tying the upside narrative to World Cup‑linked consumption and tourism, plus continued strength in select sectors (materials/commodities, construction, and consumer-linked names). The same coverage warns that growth shortfalls in Mexico/US, tax impacts (including excise-related risks), and raw-material volatility could complicate the path. [13]
Monex: 68,500 target, with a strong “Mexico discount” argument—but more regional competition
Monex projected 68,500 by end‑2026, describing Mexico as relatively attractive versus other emerging markets due to stable valuations and a meaningful discount versus the U.S., while cautioning that Latin America’s re-rating (notably Brazil) reduces Mexico’s relative premium and strengthens the case for diversification. [14]
Taken together, these targets cluster in the high‑60,000s to ~71,000 range—implying single‑digit to low‑teens potential upside versus mid‑December levels, rather than another “rocket year” by default. [15]
The two 2026 megathemes for Mexican stocks: World Cup demand vs. USMCA review risk
Mexico’s equity story for 2026 is shaping up like a tug-of-war between demand catalysts and policy uncertainty.
Theme 1: World Cup tailwinds and “real economy” sectors
Strategists repeatedly point to 2026’s sports-calendar impact as a demand pulse that could show up in:
- Airports and airlines (traffic and pricing),
- Food and beverage (gatherings, restaurants, convenience retail),
- Hospitality and tourism-linked services, and
- Construction (select infrastructure and housing-linked activity). [16]
This is one reason the Volaris/Viva merger news is being watched so closely: it’s not just corporate strategy; it’s a stress test for how Mexico’s travel ecosystem wants to scale into a potentially high-demand year. [17]
Theme 2: USMCA (T‑MEC) review and trade-policy volatility
On the other side of the ledger sits the institutional mega-risk: trade policy and the coming USMCA/T‑MEC review cycle, which could amplify volatility.
An Expansión analysis (drawing on Monex models) suggested that 2026 could see a tactical correction dynamic—particularly in the first half—linked to portfolio repositioning and sensitivity around trade renegotiation headlines, even if the longer-term fundamental view remains constructive. [18]
BX+ also explicitly lists trade and migration policy uncertainty tied to the U.S. administration as a key risk factor for Mexico’s outlook. [19]
IPO pipeline and market structure: Why BMV itself is part of the 2026 story
The Mexico Stock Exchange isn’t only about where the IPC closes—it’s also about whether Mexico’s capital markets can attract new listings, deepen liquidity, and modernize infrastructure.
A Reporte Índigo feature highlighted comments from Grupo BMV CEO Jorge Alegría, framing 2025’s performance as partly driven by global portfolio restructuring that favored Mexico, and reporting that BMV executives expect three new companies to list in Q1 2026, with speculation that one could be the long-anticipated Banamex IPO. [20]
That Banamex angle gained more relevance after Reuters reported Citigroup completed the sale of a 25% stake in Banamex to Mexican billionaire Fernando Chico Pardo, while reiterating it still plans to pursue an IPO for the retail unit—subject to market conditions and regulatory approvals. [21]
Meanwhile, BMV’s modernization push—covering technology upgrades and post‑trade infrastructure—was also emphasized in that same Reporte Índigo coverage, a reminder that “market plumbing” matters when volatility rises and new issuers consider going public. [22]
What to watch next for the Mexico Stock Exchange
As the calendar turns, the BMV’s next decisive leg likely hinges on five signals:
1) Banxico communication and inflation prints.
A rate cut helps equities—until inflation forces a pause. The market will parse every word for whether “pause” becomes policy. [23]
2) Peso stability around psychologically important levels.
A steady peso can soften imported inflation and support Banxico flexibility; sharp depreciation does the opposite. [24]
3) Trade-policy headlines and USMCA positioning.
The closer the review cycle gets, the more the market may “price the headlines” before pricing the outcomes. [25]
4) Corporate deal flow and regulatory credibility.
The Volaris/Viva process—especially in a changing competition-policy landscape—will be a high-profile test case. [26]
5) Whether the IPO window truly reopens.
A credible pipeline of listings (and a successful Banamex path) would be a confidence signal that Mexico’s equity market is deepening—not just rising. [27]
Bottom line: As of December 20, 2025, the Mexico Stock Exchange is finishing the year in an unusually interesting posture: a strong 2025 run, a modest late‑December pullback, and a 2026 outlook where bullish catalysts (World Cup demand, easing rates later in the year) compete with genuine macro and policy risks (inflation shocks, trade uncertainty, and early‑year “pause” dynamics). [28]
References
1. es.investing.com, 2. es.investing.com, 3. www.swissinfo.ch, 4. estrategia.vepormas.com, 5. www.jornada.com.mx, 6. es.investing.com, 7. www.jornada.com.mx, 8. www.reuters.com, 9. www.banxico.org.mx, 10. www.bbvaresearch.com, 11. www.scotiabank.com, 12. estrategia.vepormas.com, 13. www.eleconomista.com.mx, 14. www.eleconomista.com.mx, 15. estrategia.vepormas.com, 16. estrategia.vepormas.com, 17. www.reuters.com, 18. expansion.mx, 19. estrategia.vepormas.com, 20. www.reporteindigo.com, 21. www.reuters.com, 22. www.reporteindigo.com, 23. www.banxico.org.mx, 24. www.scotiabank.com, 25. expansion.mx, 26. www.reuters.com, 27. www.reporteindigo.com, 28. es.investing.com
