Micron Technology (MU) Stock on December 2, 2025: AI Memory Supercycle, $300–$338 Targets and the $9.6B Japan Bet

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Micron Technology (NASDAQ: MU) stock is riding an AI-fueled memory supercycle, with Wall Street targets up to $338, a new $9.6B HBM fab in Japan, and key earnings on December 17, 2025. Here’s what investors need to know today.

Key Takeaways

• Micron stock is trading around $240 per share on December 2, 2025, after roughly tripling in 2025 and ranking among the S&P 500’s standout performers. ^[1]
• Wolfe Research just hiked its price target to $300 from $200 and reiterated an Outperform rating, while Morgan Stanley recently set a Street‑high target of $338 with an Overweight call. ^[2]
• Micron has announced a ¥1.5 trillion (~$9.6B) HBM fab in Hiroshima, Japan, backed by up to ¥500B in subsidies; construction is expected to start in May 2026 with shipments around 2028. ^[3]
• Fiscal 2025 revenue hit a record ~$37.4B (+~49% YoY), with data‑center products (including HBM) now about 56% of sales and margins inflecting sharply higher. ^[4]
• Wall Street projects revenue to jump toward ~$55–63B by FY 2027 and EPS to more than double, reflecting expectations of a multi‑year AI memory boom. ^[5]
• Despite the euphoria, S&P Global has only shifted Micron’s credit outlook to “Positive” (not yet an upgrade) and analysts highlight classic memory‑cycle, capex and geopolitical risks as the stock trades near all‑time highs. ^[6]

Micron Stock Today: Price, Performance and Valuation

As of early trading on December 2, 2025, Micron Technology, Inc. (NASDAQ: MU) is changing hands around $240.46 per share.

Recent data from MarketBeat and other trackers show: ^[7]

• 52‑week range: roughly $61.5 – $260.6
• Market cap: about $260–270B
• Trailing P/E: just above 31x
• Dividend yield: ~0.19% (annual dividend around $0.46 per share) ^[8]

On a performance basis, Micron has been one of 2025’s breakout AI trades:

• Zacks data (via Nasdaq) shows Micron shares up around 200% year‑to‑date, vastly outpacing its industry. ^[9]
• Investopedia similarly notes that Micron has “roughly tripled in value in 2025,” placing it among the best‑performing S&P 500 names. ^[10]

In other words: Micron is no longer a forgotten cyclical — it’s now priced as a core AI infrastructure play.

What’s New on December 2, 2025?

1. Wolfe Research’s Fresh $300 Price Target

The biggest Micron‑specific headline today:

• Wolfe Research boosted its MU price target to $300 from $200, keeping an Outperform rating. ^[11]
• AskTraders reports that Micron is now up 12.5% over the last five sessions and about 175% since the start of the year, with Wolfe’s call explicitly tied to surging DRAM and NAND pricing driven by AI demand. ^[12]

Wolfe also raised its FY 2026–2027 earnings estimates, citing a “major jump” in commodity memory demand directly attributable to AI workloads — a strong vote of confidence that the current boom is more than a short‑term spike. ^[13]

2. $9.6B Japan HBM Fab: The AI Bet Goes Global

The second pillar of today’s Micron narrative is its massive expansion in Japan:

• Multiple reports from Reuters, Nikkei, TrendForce and others confirm Micron plans to invest ≈¥1.5 trillion (~$9.6B) in a new high‑bandwidth memory (HBM) fab at its Hiroshima site. ^[14]
• Construction is expected to begin in May 2026, with HBM shipments targeted around 2028. ^[15]
• Japan’s Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry (METI) may provide up to ¥500B (≈$3.2B) in subsidies, underscoring how strategically important AI memory has become to national industrial policy. ^[16]

Analyses from Simply Wall St and TS2 Tech frame this as: ^[17]

• A way for Micron to boost HBM capacity,
• Diversify manufacturing away from Taiwan, and
• Cement its role as a long‑term supplier to hyperscale data‑center and AI customers.

3. S&P Global Turns More Optimistic

On the credit side, S&P Global Ratings recently revised Micron’s outlook from “Stable” to “Positive.” ^[18]

According to S&P and subsequent summaries:

• The shift is driven by stronger‑than‑expected earnings recovery,
• AI‑driven memory pricing power, and
• Expectations that net capex will exceed $18B in fiscal 2026, up from about $13.8B in 2025, with spending focused on DRAM node shrinks, HBM capacity and new fabs in the U.S. and Japan. ^[19]

A positive outlook is not yet an upgrade, but it signals that rating agencies increasingly see Micron as more than a boom‑and‑bust commodity producer.

4. Global Memory Shortage Context

Today’s Reuters Breakingviews column about China’s chip champions “missing their cue” provides crucial macro context: ^[20]

• AI demand has created the strongest memory up‑cycle since the 1990s PC boom, with severe shortages across DRAM and other storage products.
• DRAM contract prices are estimated to be up ~30% in Q4 versus Q3, and analysts expect elevated pricing into next year as supply struggles to catch up.

For leaders like Micron, Samsung and SK hynix, that environment translates directly into pricing power, margin expansion and aggressive expansion plans — exactly what’s visible in Micron’s recent results and guidance.

Fundamentals: Record 2025 and an Aggressive 2026–2027 Ramp

Fiscal 2025: From Down‑Cycle to Breakout Year

Micron’s fiscal 2025 (ended August 28, 2025) marked a dramatic turnaround from the 2023 downturn:

• FY 2025 revenue: ≈ $37.4B, up about 49% year over year. ^[21]
• Data‑center revenue: ≈ $20.8B, or ~56% of total sales, driven by AI servers and HBM. ^[22]
• Non‑GAAP gross margin: improved from 22% in FY 2024 to ~41% in FY 2025, with guidance pointing toward the low‑50% range in early FY 2026. ^[23]

In fiscal Q4 2025 specifically, Micron reported:

• Revenue of about $11.3B, up roughly 46% YoY
• Non‑GAAP EPS of $3.03, topping consensus estimates around $2.86 TS2 Tech

The key message from Micron’s own guidance and subsequent analysis: the AI data‑center mix is reshaping the P&L, turning a historically low‑margin memory business into something that looks much more like a structural growth story.

2026–2027: Street Forecasts Point to Big Growth

Consensus compiled by StockAnalysis and others suggests Wall Street expects the AI memory boom to continue: ^[24]

• Revenue outlook
  • FY 2025 (actual): ~$37.4B
  • FY 2026 (forecast): ~$55.7B
  • FY 2027 (forecast): ~$62.9B
• EPS outlook (GAAP / blended)
  • FY 2025: around $7.59
  • FY 2026: ~$17.10
  • FY 2027: ~$19.12

Trefis notes that HBM3E is effectively sold out through 2026, with Micron: ^[25]

• Targeting an $8B annual HBM revenue run‑rate by FQ4 2025,
• Expecting DRAM prices to continue rising through 2026 as tight supply – especially for AI‑grade parts – spills over into mainstream memory.

Zacks (via Nasdaq) estimates Micron’s fiscal 2026 revenue could reach about $53B, implying >40% growth, and highlights that data‑center products already form more than half of total sales. ^[26]

In short, analysts are modeling Micron as a company whose earnings can more than double over the next couple of years if AI demand remains strong.

AI Memory Supercycle: Why Micron Is at the Center

Several recent deep dives — from MarketBeat, Investors Hangout, Trefis and others — agree on the core of Micron’s bull case: ^[27]

1. HBM (High‑Bandwidth Memory) is the star.
   • HBM stacks DRAM vertically and connects it with thousands of data pathways, enabling the immense bandwidth needed for large AI models.
   • HBM production is far more silicon‑intensive than standard DRAM, consuming a lot more wafer area per bit.
2. Capacity is constrained.
   • As Micron and rivals redirect high‑end capacity to HBM, there is less capacity left for conventional DRAM and NAND, tightening supply across the board.
   • Reuters and Bernstein estimates suggest DRAM contract prices have jumped sharply and could remain elevated into 2026. ^[28]
3. Pricing power is feeding record margins.
   • MarketBeat and Investors Hangout highlight that Micron’s non‑GAAP gross margin surged from negative levels in the 2023 slump to ~41% in FY 2025, with guidance pointing to the low‑50% range as high‑margin HBM ramps. ^[29]
4. Structural lag protects the cycle — for now.
   • Building advanced memory fabs (Boise, New York, Hiroshima) is a multi‑year, multi‑billion‑dollar effort. Even with today’s aggressive capex, substantial new capacity won’t fully arrive until 2027–2030, creating a window where demand can outstrip supply. ^[30]

Combine those factors and you get the narrative many analysts now repeat: memory is no longer “just” cyclical; it may be entering a multi‑year AI‑driven supercycle — with Micron as one of the primary beneficiaries.

Analyst Sentiment and Price Targets: From Consensus to Street‑High Calls

Wall Street Consensus

MarketBeat’s latest compilation shows: ^[31]

• Consensus rating:Buy (score ~3.0 out of 5)
• Breakdown:
  • 5 Strong Buy
  • 26 Buy
  • 4 Hold
  • 0 Sell
• Consensus 12‑month price target: about $216, implying ~10% downside from the current ~$240 level.

That apparent contradiction — a “Buy” rating but a target below the current price — reflects how quickly Micron has run ahead of earlier models. Many analysts are still updating assumptions to reflect the HBM supercycle and Japan fab news.

High‑Profile Upgrades and Targets

Recent high‑profile moves include: ^[32]

• Morgan Stanley: raised PT to $338, Overweight — currently Street‑high, implying roughly 40%+ upside from ~$240 if their AI memory thesis plays out.
• Wolfe Research: today’s move to $300 from $200, with an Outperform rating.
• Wells Fargo, Rosenblatt, UBS, TD Cowen: multiple firms have pushed targets into the $275–$300 range over the last few weeks, often citing HBM strength and better‑than‑expected margins.
• Yahoo Finance & Simply Wall St fair‑value estimates cluster closer to $220–$221, suggesting modest downside from today’s price if AI trends normalize. ^[33]
• Trefis pegs fair value nearer $161 in its latest note — implying ~30% downside — while acknowledging strong fundamentals and high growth. ^[34]

The takeaway for investors scanning Google News and Discover: there is now a wide dispersion of price targets and fair‑value estimates, from deeply bullish (upside to $338) to more cautious (downside toward $160–220).

Capital Intensity, Free Cash Flow and Balance Sheet

Micron’s AI ambitions are not cheap:

• TS2 Tech and S&P Global note that Micron spent around $13.8B on capex in fiscal 2025, and net capex could exceed $18B in 2026 as it funds: TS2 Tech+2S&P Global+2
  • DRAM node shrinks,
  • New HBM capacity,
  • U.S. fabs supported by the CHIPS Act,
  • The newly announced Hiroshima HBM fab.

Simply Wall St’s long‑term narrative projects Micron could reach $53.6B in revenue and $13.6B in earnings by 2028, requiring ~16.6% annual revenue growth, but it warns that heavy capex and the inherently cyclical nature of memory will continue to pressure free cash flow at times. ^[35]

S&P’s move to a Positive outlook suggests that, for now, credit markets are comfortable with this investment blitz — given the visibility of AI demand and Micron’s improving margins and balance sheet. ^[36]

Key Risks the Market Is Watching

Even in today’s bullish environment, recent analyses highlight several non‑trivial risks: Simply Wall St+4TS2 Tech+4TS2 Tech+4

1. Cyclical Risk & Over‑Capacity
   • Memory remains highly cyclical. If Micron, Samsung, SK hynix and emerging Chinese players overbuild HBM and DRAM capacity, prices could fall sharply in 2027–2028, compressing margins.
2. Capital‑Intensive Growth & Free Cash Flow
   • With capex running in the mid‑teens of billions and rising, any slowdown in AI capex or faster‑than‑expected normalization of memory prices could crush near‑term free cash flow, limiting buybacks and dividend growth.
3. Competition in HBM & DRAM
   • SK hynix is currently the HBM leader supplying much of Nvidia’s high‑end GPU demand, while Samsung and Japan‑/China‑backed rivals are pushing aggressively. Micron’s strategy of keeping bit supply growth below demand helps, but competitor behavior is outside its control.
4. Geopolitics & Regulation
   • Micron sits at the intersection of U.S.–China tech tensions, export controls and government subsidy programs in the U.S. and Japan. Policy shifts could affect market access, tool availability or fab economics. ^[37]
5. Valuation & Expectations
   • After roughly tripling this year, Micron now trades above many fair‑value models, with consensus targets actually below the current price even as some analysts call for $300–$338. Any disappointment in the December 17 earnings report or guidance could trigger an outsized pullback. TrendForce+3TS2 Tech+3MarketBeat+3
6. History of Volatility
   • Trefis reminds investors that Micron has historically suffered 50–80% drawdowns in prior cycles, even when its long‑term fundamentals looked solid. The stock remains a high‑beta vehicle that tends to amplify broader market swings. ^[38]

In short, Micron may be in a structurally better environment, but it’s still a capital‑heavy cyclical at heart.

What to Watch Next

For traders and long‑term investors following Micron through Google News and Discover, a few upcoming catalysts matter most:

1. Fiscal Q1 2026 Earnings – December 17, 2025
   • Micron has already scheduled its next earnings call for December 17, 2025, with guidance pointing to: TS2 Tech+1
     • Revenue around $12.4–12.6B,
     • Non‑GAAP EPS near $3.70–3.80,
     • Gross margin in the low‑50% range.
   • The market will focus heavily on HBM demand, capacity ramp, pricing commentary and 2026 capex plans.
2. Updates on the Hiroshima HBM Fab
   • Details on subsidy levels, construction timelines, tool deliveries and ramp schedule could influence how investors model Micron’s share of the HBM market later in the decade. ^[39]
3. DRAM/NAND Pricing and Capacity Signals
   • Any signs that DRAM pricing momentum is slowing or that competitors are accelerating capacity could challenge the supercycle narrative. Conversely, continued tightness and price increases into 2026 would reinforce the bull case. ^[40]
4. AI Demand from Hyperscalers and GPU Vendors
   • Commentary from Nvidia, AMD and major cloud providers on AI server capex will remain a key read‑through for Micron’s HBM and data‑center business. ^[41]
5. Further Analyst Revisions
   • If results and guidance keep surprising to the upside, more firms may raise targets closer to the $300–$338 range; if not, we could see a wave of downgrades or valuation resets that bring the share price back toward the current consensus.

Bottom Line: Micron as a High‑Conviction, High‑Volatility AI Infrastructure Play

As of December 2, 2025, the Micron story looks like this:

• The company has pivoted from a deep downturn to record revenue and margins, powered by AI data‑center demand and HBM leadership. ^[42]
• It is doubling down with a $9.6B HBM megaproject in Japan, on top of U.S. expansions backed by government incentives. ^[43]
• Wall Street is split: consensus officially sees modest downside from today’s price, yet some of the most influential analysts are calling for $300–$338 and framing Micron as one of the defining AI infrastructure winners of the late 2020s. ^[44]
• At the same time, classic memory‑cycle, capex, valuation and geopolitical risks haven’t disappeared; if AI spending slows or capacity overshoots, Micron’s share price can fall hard, as it has in past cycles. TS2 Tech+2Trefis+2

For now, Micron Technology sits at the crossroads of AI, global industrial policy and the semiconductor cycle — a high‑conviction, high‑volatility name that is likely to stay front‑and‑center on Google News and Discover well beyond the December 17 earnings date.

Disclaimer: This article is for informational and news purposes only and does not constitute financial advice, investment recommendation or an offer to buy or sell any security. Always do your own research and consider consulting a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.

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