Microsoft (MSFT) Stock Outlook Today: What to Know Before the Market Opens on December 8, 2025

Investors heading into Monday’s U.S. session are watching Microsoft Corp. (NASDAQ: MSFT) closely. After a choppy few weeks driven by AI-sales headlines, insider selling and renewed excitement around a potential stock split, the software giant enters December 8 with its share price clustered just under the $500 mark and its market value sitting around $3.6 trillion. ^[1]

Below is a comprehensive, news- and data-driven look at what changed on December 7, 2025, and what it could mean for Microsoft stock when the bell rings on Monday.

1. Where Microsoft Stock Stands Before Monday’s Open

Last close: Microsoft last traded on Friday, December 5, closing around $483.16 per share. ^[2]
Range and context: The stock has been consolidating in the high-$470s to low-$490s in recent sessions after previously hitting an all‑time high near $555.45 in late July. ^[3]
Market cap: With a share price in the low $480s and roughly 7.43 billion shares outstanding, Microsoft’s market capitalization sits near $3.6 trillion as of December 7. ^[4]
Risk–return profile: Portfolio analytics site PortfoliosLab estimates a 5‑year Sharpe ratio of about 0.73, indicating attractive risk‑adjusted returns relative to many large-cap peers. ^[5]

Despite recent volatility triggered by AI-sales concerns, Microsoft is still up by a mid‑teens percentage so far in 2025, according to multiple reports that put the year‑to‑date gain roughly in the 14–17% range. ^[6]

2. Fresh Microsoft Stock News from December 7, 2025

2.1 Institutional Investors Are Actively Rebalancing MSFT

December 7 brought a flurry of 13F-style institutional alerts around Microsoft:

New and increased positions:
- Raiffeisen Bank International AG increased its MSFT holdings. ^[7]
- Symphony Financial Ltd. Co., Waratah Capital Advisors, Y.D. More Investments and Intrust Bank NA all disclosed fresh purchases or position increases in Microsoft shares. ^[8]
Reductions:
- Westpac Banking Corp and Beta Wealth Group Inc. reported trimming their Microsoft positions. ^[9]

These moves suggest no clear institutional consensus short‑term – some managers are taking profits after a long rally, while others continue to add Microsoft on any weakness.

2.2 The Gates Foundation’s Big Sale Is Still in Focus

Coverage on December 7 continued to dissect the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation’s major reduction in its long‑time Microsoft stake:

MarketBeat notes the foundation cut its MSFT holdings by roughly 65%, selling around 17 million shares in its latest reported quarter. ^[10]
CoinCentral framed the sale at roughly $8.8 billion worth of stock, highlighting that Microsoft fell about 8% in the week around the disclosure, even as analysts kept predominantly “buy” ratings. ^[11]

Most commentary emphasizes that the Gates Foundation remains heavily exposed to Microsoft but is rebalancing and diversifying a concentrated position, rather than expressing a fundamental bearish view on the company.

On top of that, a separate report last month flagged that Microsoft President Brad Smith sold about $20 million in shares after a post‑earnings dip tied to AI spending concerns, adding another datapoint to the insider‑selling narrative. ^[12]

2.3 Rising Buzz Around a Possible 2026 Microsoft Stock Split

One of the most eye‑catching December 7 storylines is renewed speculation that Microsoft could be the first mega‑cap tech name to split its stock in 2026:

A Motley Fool article published Sunday argues that Microsoft is a leading candidate to be the first big‑tech stock to split in 2026, noting its high share price and long stretch without a split since 2003. ^[13]
AInvest likewise suggests that with MSFT trading near $500 and retail‑investor access increasingly in focus, a 2026 split is becoming a “focal point” for analysts and traders. ^[14]

Crucially, Microsoft has not announced any stock‑split plan. For now, this remains a sentiment and psychology story: a split would not change the company’s fundamentals, but it could broaden retail participation and become a short‑term catalyst if formally announced.

2.4 New and Ongoing Price Targets and Forecasts

Several recent forecasts and analyses were still circulating on December 7:

24/7 Wall St. projects Microsoft’s stock could reach about $563.64 by the end of 2025, implying roughly 18% upside from the mid‑$480s, based on expectations for ~8% revenue growth, Azure growth of 20%+ and EPS of $15.67 for the year. ^[15]
Algorithmic models at CoinCodex foresee Microsoft reaching a short‑term high near $491.94 by December 10, an incremental move of around 1.8% from current levels. ^[16]

These are third‑party projections, not guidance from Microsoft, but they set a reference range many traders will have in mind when the market opens Monday.

2.5 AI, OpenAI and Data‑Center Partnerships

The AI story continues to dominate the Microsoft investment thesis:

OpenAI restructuring deal:
In late October, Microsoft and OpenAI announced a major restructuring that frees OpenAI from prior fundraising constraints and recasts it as a public‑benefit corporation. Microsoft will hold about a 27% stake and expects OpenAI to purchase roughly $250 billion of Azure cloud services, while no longer having an exclusive right of first refusal as compute provider. ^[17]
MarketWatch and other commentators have argued this structure effectively lets Microsoft keep many benefits of the partnership while offloading some financial and governance risk, calling the relationship a kind of “safety net” for the stock amid AI-bubble concerns. ^[18]
LG Electronics cooperation:
Reuters reported on December 5 that LG Electronics and Microsoft affiliates are pursuing broad cooperation around data centres, though no final deal has been signed. ^[19]
For investors, even exploratory talks around data‑center collaboration underscore the tremendous infrastructure demand tied to AI and cloud workloads.

2.6 Office 365 Price Hikes Set the Stage for Future Revenue

A CoinCentral piece highlights Microsoft’s plan to raise Office 365 commercial subscription prices by up to 33% for some business customers in July 2026, with smaller firms and front‑line worker plans seeing some of the steepest increases. ^[20]

While not an immediate 2025 catalyst, that announcement matters for anyone modeling Microsoft’s medium‑term revenue growth and margin expansion – and it adds another reason why regulators, enterprise buyers and investor advocates are watching Microsoft’s pricing power closely.

3. Fundamentals: Cloud and AI Still Drive the Microsoft Story

Microsoft’s recent earnings underscore why many analysts still see MSFT as one of the strongest large‑cap growth stories heading into 2026:

Q1 FY26 headline numbers:
- Earnings per share (non‑GAAP) came in at $4.13, up about 23% year over year on a non‑GAAP basis and roughly 25% on a GAAP basis. ^[21]
- Revenue reached about $77.6 billion, up 18.4% year over year, beating consensus estimates by more than 3%. ^[22]
Cloud strength:
- Microsoft Cloud revenue climbed to $49.1 billion, a 26% increase, reflecting continued demand for Azure, Microsoft 365 and related services. ^[23]
- The Intelligent Cloud segment generated $30.9 billion, up 28%, with Azure and other cloud services revenue growing about 40%. ^[24]
Other segments:
- Productivity and Business Processes revenue rose 17%, driven by Microsoft 365 Commercial and Dynamics 365. ^[25]
- More Personal Computing, which includes Windows OEM, Xbox content and search advertising, grew more modestly at 4%, with Windows and search offsetting weaker hardware. ^[26]
Capital returns:
Microsoft returned $10.7 billion to shareholders in the quarter via dividends and buybacks. ^[27]

A separate 24/7 Wall St. breakdown emphasizes that capital expenditures jumped around 74% to nearly $35 billion as Microsoft races to build AI‑ready data centers – a reminder that today’s cloud and AI growth is capital‑intensive and not without near‑term margin pressure. ^[28]

4. How Wall Street Sees Microsoft Stock Right Now

4.1 Consensus Ratings and Price Targets

According to MarketWatch’s analyst estimates page:

Microsoft carries an average recommendation of “Buy” based on around 62 analyst ratings.
The average 12‑month price target sits near $631, which would represent roughly 30% upside from Friday’s close in the low $480s. ^[29]

TradingView’s aggregate shows a target range from about $500 to $730 among analysts it tracks, highlighting both the bullish long‑term narrative and growing dispersion in expectations at current valuations. ^[30]

4.2 Recent Narrative from Research and Commentary

Recent analysis spans strongly bullish to cautiously neutral:

A late‑November Seeking Alpha article titled along the lines of “Microsoft: Ignore the Anti‑AI Chatter” keeps Microsoft as a top “buy” pick with an estimated 33% upside, arguing that AI volatility is noise against long‑term earnings power. ^[31]
Another piece from the same platform, “Microsoft: Probabilities Are Shifting Toward Danger,” counters that the stock is more of a “hold” at current levels, citing elevated valuation multiples and macroeconomic risks as reasons for caution. ^[32]

Taken together, these views reflect a maturing bull case: the market broadly agrees Microsoft is a high‑quality compounder, but there is real debate about how much future AI and cloud growth is already priced in.

5. Key Risks in Focus Heading Into December 8

5.1 AI Monetization vs. AI Hype

Earlier this week, Microsoft shares fell about 3% intraday after reports suggested the company is struggling to hit some AI-related sales and growth targets, prompting management to rethink aspects of the go‑to‑market strategy. ^[33]

The concern is not that AI demand is collapsing, but that:

Enterprise adoption of cutting‑edge AI tools may be slower and more experimental than the market hoped.
Heavy AI capital expenditures may take longer to translate into revenue and profit.

Investors will be watching for any additional commentary – from Microsoft or major customers – that either confirms or challenges this narrative.

5.2 Valuation and Capital Intensity

MarketBeat’s write‑up tied to the Gates Foundation sale notes that Microsoft is trading around 36× forward earnings, even while analysts still see roughly 32% upside based on average price targets. ^[34]

Combine that with:

Surging capex for AI data centers,
A share price near all‑time highs and
Ongoing insider and institutional selling in some corners,

and you get a stock where expectations are high and execution risk matters. Any disappointment in Azure growth, Copilot monetization or AI margins could hit the shares harder than in earlier phases of the AI cycle.

5.3 Competition, Regulation and Pricing Power

Microsoft also faces:

Intense competition from other hyperscalers and AI players.
Growing regulatory scrutiny around both AI safety and potential antitrust issues.
Questions about pricing power, especially after announcing steep Office 365 commercial price hikes from mid‑2026 that could face pushback from small businesses and front‑line employers. ^[35]

None of these are new risks, but they are becoming more visible as AI goes mainstream and Microsoft’s influence grows.

6. What to Watch When MSFT Starts Trading on December 8, 2025

Here are the main signposts to monitor as markets open on Monday:

Price action around the high‑$470s to low‑$490s range
- Recent trading has carved out a zone where buyers and sellers keep re‑engaging. Whether MSFT can hold above the $480 area or make another run at $490+ will shape near‑term momentum. ^[36]
Reaction to stock‑split speculation
- Any comments from analysts, major shareholders or Microsoft executives about capital‑structure flexibility could amplify split chatter – or cool it. For now, it’s purely speculative, but sentiment‑relevant. ^[37]
Flows from institutions and funds
- The December 7 batch of filings showed both buyers and sellers among banks, wealth managers and hedge funds. New disclosures or follow‑up commentary could hint at how big money is positioning into year‑end. ^[38]
Any new headlines on AI demand, OpenAI or data‑center deals
- The OpenAI restructuring and possible LG data‑center cooperation already underscore how central AI and infrastructure have become to the Microsoft story. Further developments could quickly shift expectations for Azure growth and AI revenue. ^[39]
Macro backdrop and tech sector tone
- With markets still digesting the latest Federal Reserve rate cut and forward guidance, big‑tech names like Microsoft can move more on sector‑wide flows than company‑specific news on any given day. ^[40]

7. Bottom Line: Balanced but Still AI‑Leaning Bull Case

Heading into the December 8, 2025 open, Microsoft stock presents a mixed but still generally constructive setup:

Positives:
- Strong recent earnings, with double‑digit revenue and EPS growth powered by cloud and AI. ^[41]
- A deep, multi‑year AI partnership with OpenAI that has just been restructured to unlock more capital and flexibility. ^[42]
- Predominantly “buy” ratings on Wall Street and average price targets that sit well above current levels. ^[43]
Watch‑outs:
- High expectations and elevated valuation leave less margin for error. ^[44]
- AI monetization and enterprise adoption may be lumpier than early bulls hoped. ^[45]
- Insider and institutional selling in some pockets could keep investors on edge, even as other funds are buying the dip. ^[46]

For traders and long‑term shareholders alike, Monday’s session will be less about a single headline and more about how the market digests this dense cluster of AI news, institutional positioning and stock‑split speculation around one of the world’s most important companies.