NEW YORK, January 2, 2026, 08:12 ET
- TipRanks data show Microsoft has a “Strong Buy” consensus with an average price target of $631.36, implying 30.6% upside.
- Wedbush’s Dan Ives set a $625 target and called fiscal 2026 an “inflection year” for Microsoft’s artificial intelligence growth.
- TipRanks’ ownership data show public companies and individual investors hold 40.54% of Microsoft, while Vanguard is the top shareholder at 8.17%.
Wall Street analysts are starting 2026 bullish on Microsoft (MSFT), with TipRanks showing a “Strong Buy” consensus and an average price target of $631.36 for the shares. The target implies 30.6% upside, TipRanks data show. 1
The optimism matters now because investors are demanding proof that heavy spending on artificial intelligence, or AI, can translate into profit growth. Microsoft is a bellwether, selling AI through Azure — its cloud-computing platform — and through productivity subscriptions used across corporate IT budgets.
Markets have also shown they can turn quickly after a strong year. U.S. stocks ended 2025 lower in the final session but posted solid annual gains, a rally fueled in part by enthusiasm for AI-linked companies, Reuters reported. Reuters
Microsoft shares closed 2025 at $483.62 on Dec. 31, down 0.79% on the day, TS2.tech reported, citing Investing.com data. TipRanks said the stock gained about 15% in 2025, slightly lagging the S&P 500.
Wedbush Securities analyst Dan Ives has put Microsoft at the top of his large-cap AI list for 2026 and set a $625 price target. “FY26 for Microsoft remains the true inflection year of AI growth,” Ives wrote in a client note, referring to Microsoft’s fiscal 2026 year. 2
A price target is a broker’s estimate of where a stock should trade over the next 12 months. It is not a promise, and targets can change quickly when spending plans or demand assumptions shift.
For Microsoft, bulls are leaning on enterprise customers moving from small AI pilots to broader deployments that run on Azure. Investors are watching whether higher AI usage lifts cloud growth enough to offset the cost of building and operating data centers.
Ownership data underline how much of Microsoft sits in long-only hands. TipRanks’ Ownership Tool shows public companies and individual investors own 40.54% of Microsoft, followed by mutual funds at 21.83% and exchange-traded funds (ETFs) at 21.53%.
An ETF is a basket of securities that trades on an exchange like a stock. That structure can amplify moves when money flows in or out of broad index products that hold Microsoft as a core position.
Vanguard is the largest single shareholder in Microsoft at 8.17%, TipRanks said, followed by Vanguard Index Funds with 6.69%. Among ETF holders, the Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF owns 3.14% of Microsoft and the Vanguard S&P 500 ETF holds 2.53%, TipRanks said.
Analyst targets remain dispersed. TS2.tech, citing Markets Insider data, said 97 analysts have a median price target of $549.88, with estimates ranging from $425 to $700, and the stock carrying a consensus “buy” rating.
Microsoft’s AI push pits it against Amazon’s AWS and Alphabet’s Google Cloud for corporate workloads. Chipmaker Nvidia has also been a major beneficiary of the AI trade, as data-center builders scale up capacity.
Fresh capital continues to chase the AI ecosystem that Microsoft helped popularize. SoftBank said it completed a $41 billion investment in OpenAI, underscoring the scale of funding behind model builders and the infrastructure buildout that has investors scrutinizing returns. Reuters
