Microsoft Stock (MSFT) on December 9, 2025: Canada AI Megainvestment, Chip Shake‑Up and Wall Street’s 2026 Price Targets

Microsoft Corp. (NASDAQ: MSFT) is back in the spotlight on December 9, 2025, as investors digest a fresh multibillion‑dollar AI infrastructure pledge in Canada, a potential shake‑up in its AI chip supply chain, short‑term issues with Copilot availability in Europe, and a wall of bullish—but demanding—analyst forecasts.

Below is a detailed, news‑driven look at MSFT as of December 9, 2025, suitable for readers following the stock via Google News and Discover. This article is informational only and not investment advice.

Microsoft stock price today: near record highs but still consolidating

As of mid‑day on December 9, 2025, Microsoft shares are trading around $491 per share, up roughly 1.6% from the previous close and valuing the company at about $3.85 trillion.

Market data from StockAnalysis shows a very similar last close ($491.02), plus a small pre‑market uptick earlier in the U.S. session. ^[1]

According to a recent technical wrap‑up ahead of today’s open, MSFT: TechStock²

• Remains just below its all‑time closing high near $541 (set on October 28, 2025).
• Is still under a 52‑week high around $555, leaving room for further upside if momentum resumes.
• Is trading in a consolidation band roughly between $465 (support) and $495 (near‑term resistance).

At current levels, the trailing P/E ratio is about 36.7, based on earnings per share of roughly $14.06, placing Microsoft firmly in “premium multiple” territory relative to the broader market. ^[2]

Short version: Microsoft is priced as a core, blue‑chip AI winner—and the market expects it to keep earning that title.

Fresh headline: C$7.5 billion AI infrastructure push in Canada

The biggest company‑specific catalyst hitting on December 9, 2025 is Microsoft’s announcement that it will invest C$7.5 billion (about $5.4 billion) in Canada over the next two years, focused on AI and cloud infrastructure. ^[3]

Key points from the new Canada plan:

• The C$7.5 billion is part of a broader C$19 billion commitment from 2023–2027, underscoring a long‑term expansion strategy in the country. ^[4]
• Microsoft will expand its Azure Canada Central and Canada East data‑center regions, with new capacity scheduled to come online in the second half of 2026. ^[5]
• A new Threat Intelligence Hub in Ottawa will coordinate with government and law‑enforcement agencies on nation‑state and cybercrime threats. ^[6]
• Customers will gain in‑country data processing for Copilot interactions and a “Sovereign AI Landing Zone” so sensitive workloads can remain fully within Canadian borders—an increasingly important selling point in regulated industries. ^[7]
• Microsoft Canada says it has already provided AI‑related training to 5.7 million learners and plans to help 250,000 Canadians earn AI credentials by 2026. ^[8]

Why it matters for MSFT stock

1. Growth – More local infrastructure should support Azure, Microsoft 365, and Copilot usage in Canada, feeding into Microsoft’s global cloud and AI revenue engine.
2. Moat & regulation – Sovereign AI and data‑residency features strengthen Microsoft’s position with governments and highly regulated sectors, where Europe and Canada are often early harbingers of global data rules.
3. Capex and margins – The flip side is higher capital expenditure, on top of already elevated AI spending that has started to pressure cloud margins (more on that below).

Investors generally read this kind of announcement as bullish for long‑term revenue, but it reinforces the theme that Microsoft is in a very capital‑intensive phase of the AI cycle.

AI chip shake‑up: from Marvell fears to a Broadcom–OpenAI–Microsoft triangle

Another major storyline heading into today’s session is a possible reshuffle in Microsoft’s AI chip supply chain.

Coverage summarized by TS2 Tech notes that: TechStock²

• Reports suggest Microsoft is considering shifting some of its custom AI chip business from Marvell to Broadcom, part of a broader move among “hyperscaler” cloud providers toward specialized AI silicon.
• Separate reporting on an updated OpenAI–Broadcom deal indicates that OpenAI will work with Broadcom on custom AI chips, while Microsoft gains intellectual property rights to OpenAI’s chip designs under a partnership that runs through 2032.

For Microsoft shareholders, this means:

• Microsoft is doubling down on a partnership‑driven chip strategy, using OpenAI designs and Broadcom manufacturing to compete with Google’s TPUs and Amazon’s Trainium/Inferentia offerings.
• The immediate earnings impact is modest, but the strategic impact is large, because AI infrastructure economics—performance per dollar per watt—will heavily influence Azure margins and competitiveness over the rest of the decade.

Investors are watching closely for any official confirmation or denial from Microsoft, Broadcom, or Marvell, as a formal deal could reshape expectations around both AI capex and long‑term cloud profitability. TechStock²

Short‑term wobble: Copilot outages in Europe and AI demand questions

Copilot availability issues in the UK and Europe

Microsoft’s AI assistant Copilot is facing availability problems today (December 9) for some users in the UK and across Europe.

According to Microsoft’s own status messages relayed via The Guardian’s business live blog, the company has: ^[9]

• Identified an issue with service autoscaling in response to an unexpected surge in traffic.
• Warned that users in the UK and Europe “may be unable to access Microsoft Copilot.”
• Begun manually scaling capacity and tweaking load‑balancing rules (incident code CP1193544) to restore reliability.

From an investor standpoint, isolated outages usually don’t change the long‑term thesis, but they do underline two things:

1. Demand for Copilot and related AI services is intense.
2. Reliability and user experience will be critical if Microsoft wants enterprises to pay premium prices for AI features embedded in Microsoft 365.

AI monetization taking longer than hoped?

Beyond technical glitches, there’s also a sentiment shift around near‑term AI monetization.

A recent Business Insider piece reports that Microsoft’s stock dropped as much as 3% last week following a story in The Information claiming the company had lowered certain internal AI growth targets because customers were adopting new AI tools more slowly than management had hoped. ^[10]

The article highlights:

• Some Microsoft sales teams reportedly missed AI‑related goals, raising questions about how quickly AI spending will translate into revenue.
• Investors worry that massive AI capex across the big tech “hyperscalers” might take longer to pay off than the market has priced in. ^[11]

Microsoft disputed the report, telling Business Insider that AI sales quotas had not been cut and that the story conflated internal growth targets with quotas. ^[12]

Still, the episode reinforces a key risk: even if AI becomes huge, the ramp‑up may be bumpier and slower than the smooth hockey‑stick curves embedded in some models.

Financial engine: AI and cloud are driving double‑digit growth

Despite the recent noise, Microsoft’s underlying fundamentals remain extremely strong.

FY25 results: A big AI and cloud year

For the fiscal year ended June 30, 2025, Microsoft reported: ^[13]

• Revenue: $281.7 billion, up 15% year‑over‑year.
• Operating income: $128.5 billion, up 17%.
• Net income: $101.8 billion, up 16%.
• Diluted EPS: $13.64, also up 16%.

In the fourth quarter of FY25 alone:

• Revenue was $76.4 billion, up 18%.
• Net income reached $27.2 billion, up 24%.
• Microsoft Cloud revenue hit $46.7 billion, growing 27% year‑over‑year. ^[14]

A follow‑up “Performance” breakdown from Microsoft’s investor relations team notes that: ^[15]

• Growth was broad‑based across all three segments (Productivity, Intelligent Cloud, More Personal Computing).
• Microsoft Cloud gross margin percentage dipped to 69%, mainly because of the cost of scaling AI infrastructure, partially offset by efficiency gains in Azure.
• Operating expenses rose as Microsoft continued to invest heavily in cloud and AI engineering and integrated Activision Blizzard into its gaming business.

So the story is clear: AI infrastructure spending is compressing margins modestly, but both revenue and profit are still rising at double‑digit rates.

FY26 Q1 (September 2025 quarter): Momentum continues

Microsoft’s latest reported quarter—Q1 FY26, ended September 30, 2025—continues that pattern of strong, AI‑driven growth: ^[16]

• Revenue: $77.7 billion, up 18% year‑over‑year.
• Operating income: $38.0 billion, up 24%.
• GAAP net income: $27.7 billion, up 12%.
• Non‑GAAP EPS: $4.13, up 23%, excluding the impact of OpenAI‑related investments.

Segment highlights:

• Microsoft Cloud revenue: $49.1 billion, up 26%, with commercial remaining performance obligation (backlog) up 51% to $392 billion.
• Intelligent Cloud revenue: $30.9 billion, up 28%, driven by Azure and other cloud services up 40% year‑on‑year.
• Productivity and Business Processes: revenue up 17%, with Microsoft 365 Commercial cloud up 17% and Dynamics 365 up 18%.
• More Personal Computing: revenue up 4%, helped by Windows OEM and search advertising, while Xbox hardware remained a weaker spot.

In Q1 FY26 alone, Microsoft returned $10.7 billion to shareholders through dividends and share repurchases, following $9.4 billion in Q4 FY25. ^[17]

Dividend update: higher payout, modest yield

Income‑focused investors also have news to track this week:

• Microsoft’s board raised the quarterly dividend to $0.91 per share in September 2025, roughly a 10% increase from $0.83.
• According to dividend trackers and Microsoft announcements summarized by TS2 Tech, the next $0.91 payment is due on Thursday, December 11, 2025, for shareholders of record as of November 20 (the stock is already ex‑dividend). TechStock²

At a share price around $491, that implies a forward dividend yield of roughly 0.7–0.8%, small in absolute terms but backed by large and growing free cash flow. TechStock²

The upshot: Microsoft remains primarily a growth and AI story, but the steadily rising dividend adds a bit of ballast and signals confidence in long‑term cash‑generation.

What Wall Street is saying: “Strong Buy” and targets around $600+

Consensus rating: Strong Buy

Data compiled by StockAnalysis shows that 33–34 analysts currently cover MSFT and the average rating is “Strong Buy.” ^[18]

Across the Street:

• The average 12‑month price target is about $628, implying ~28% upside from around $491. ^[19]
• Targets range from $500 on the low end (essentially flat vs. today) to $700 on the high end, where the most bullish analysts see more than 40% upside. ^[20]
• Recent rating actions include DA Davidson maintaining a Strong Buy with a $650 target, Citigroup maintaining Strong Buy while nudging its target to $690, and others initiating or maintaining Buy ratings in the $560–$600 range. ^[21]

TS2 Tech, citing MarketBeat data, notes a similarly skewed picture: dozens of Buy or Strong Buy ratings, a handful of Holds, and essentially no Sell ratings, with average targets clustered in the low‑to‑mid $600s. TechStock²

Revenue and EPS forecasts: strong double‑digit growth baked in

StockAnalysis’ aggregated analyst forecasts project that Microsoft’s results will continue to grow briskly: ^[22]

• Revenue this fiscal year (FY26): about $333 billion, up 18.3% from ~$281.7 billion in FY25.
• Revenue next fiscal year (FY27): about $382 billion, up another 14.7%.
• EPS this year: around $16.76, up 22.9% from $13.64.
• EPS next year: about $19.12, up 14.1% from FY26.

On those numbers, Microsoft’s forward P/E multiple compresses into the high‑20s, assuming the growth materializes as expected. ^[23]

Independent long‑term models: upside, but with assumptions

A detailed long‑form analysis from 24/7 Wall St., published December 4, 2025, reaches broadly similar conclusions but adds its own longer‑term price path: ^[24]

• It notes that Microsoft has beaten EPS expectations in 15 of the last 16 quarters and highlights strong growth in cloud, AI, and gaming (including Activision).
• The article discusses analysts’ price targets ranging from $500 to $700, with a median near $630, aligning with other data sources.
• 24/7 Wall St.’s own year‑end 2025 price target is $563.64, suggesting roughly 18% upside from around current levels at the time of publication.
• For a longer horizon, a multi‑year model (also referenced in TS2 Tech’s coverage) sketches potential targets in the mid‑$600s for 2026 and near $900 by 2030, contingent on sustained AI‑driven growth and expanding margins. TechStock²+1

These are just projections, not guarantees—but they reveal how much optimism is already embedded in MSFT’s valuation.

Technical snapshot: key levels traders are watching

Technical analysts and short‑term traders are focusing on a few key price zones as of December 9: TechStock²

• Support:
  • First support around $465.
  • Deeper support near $450, and then around $430 on a weekly chart.
• Resistance:
  • Near‑term resistance around $495, just above today’s trading range.
  • Higher potential resistance bands around $504 and $520.

With the stock hovering in the high $480s to low $490s, MSFT is sitting just below that $495 zone:

• A decisive break above ~ $495 on good volume could open the door to a retest of record highs.
• A reversal back toward the mid‑$470s or below could extend the ongoing consolidation into year‑end.

Technical indicators mentioned in recent analysis include a bearish MACD crossover on the daily chart, suggesting short‑term caution even as the long‑term uptrend remains intact. TechStock²

Bull case for Microsoft stock

Taken together, the fresh December 9 news and the broader data support a robust bull case:

1. AI and cloud leadership
   • Azure and Microsoft Cloud are growing in the mid‑20s to 40% range, with a huge $392 billion commercial backlog. ^[25]
   • Integration with OpenAI and deep partnerships (including potential Broadcom‑backed chips) strengthen Microsoft’s position as a top “AI infrastructure” provider. TechStock²
2. Massive, global AI build‑out
   • The new C$7.5B Canada expansion is just one example in a global AI build‑out that also includes Europe and other regions. ^[26]
   • Sovereign cloud and AI features are increasingly critical differentiators in winning large government and enterprise deals. ^[27]
3. Consistently strong execution
   • Microsoft has posted double‑digit revenue and profit growth for multiple years, with high‑30s operating margins and rising EPS. ^[28]
   • The company has a long record of beating Wall Street expectations and scaling new businesses (Office, Azure, Dynamics, now Copilot). ^[29]
4. Shareholder returns
   • Billions in annual buybacks and dividends, plus regular dividend hikes, support total returns. ^[30]
5. Analyst and institutional support
   • A wall of Strong Buy / Buy ratings, with few or no Sells, and institutional ownership above 70% according to 24/7 Wall St. ^[31]

If the AI build‑out continues to translate into real customer spending at the pace analysts expect, Microsoft’s current premium valuation could be justified—or even look conservative in hindsight.

Bear case and key risks

However, the December 9 news flow also highlights why MSFT is far from risk‑free:

1. AI capex vs. returns
   • Building global AI infrastructure is extremely expensive, and Q4 FY25 performance data already shows cloud margins dipping as Microsoft scales AI data centers. ^[32]
   • Business Insider’s coverage of slower‑than‑hoped AI sales and internal target adjustments (disputed by Microsoft) shows that revenue may lag spending longer than optimists expect. ^[33]
2. Execution risk on AI products
   • Copilot outages in Europe illustrate the operational complexity of scaling AI‑driven services globally. ^[34]
   • Some tech commentators have criticized early Copilot experiences as immature or overpriced, raising questions about willingness to pay at scale. TechStock²+1
3. Regulation & competitive landscape
   • Aggressive AI deployments are drawing regulatory scrutiny across the tech sector, especially in Europe. While today’s headline antitrust probe focuses on Google, it underscores the broader regulatory environment for large AI platforms. ^[35]
   • Competition from Amazon, Google, and other AI/cloud rivals remains intense, both in infrastructure and end‑user applications.
4. Valuation and macro risk
   • With a mid‑30s trailing P/E and a multi‑trillion‑dollar market cap, Microsoft has little room for major missteps. ^[36]
   • Broader market sentiment around AI could shift if AI peers (e.g., chipmakers, other cloud providers) report disappointing numbers, or if interest‑rate expectations change after upcoming Federal Reserve decisions. TechStock²

In other words: Microsoft looks fundamentally strong, but expectations are very high.

So is Microsoft stock a buy right now?

On December 9, 2025, the investment case around MSFT can be summarized like this:

• The core story is intact: Microsoft remains one of the best‑positioned companies on the planet to monetize AI through cloud infrastructure (Azure), productivity (Microsoft 365 + Copilot), and vertical solutions (Dynamics, security, data).
• The fresh Canada investment and evolving AI chip strategy show that management is still playing very long‑term, building out global infrastructure and deepening its AI moat. ^[37]
• Financial results continue to deliver 15–20% growth with very high margins and strong cash returns, even as AI spending weighs on cloud gross margins. ^[38]
• Wall Street is overwhelmingly bullish, with average 12‑month price targets pointing to around 25–30% upside from current levels, and some models sketching even higher long‑term potential. ^[39]

However:

• The stock is already near record highs and priced at a premium multiple, so any disappointment in AI adoption, margins, or regulation could trigger sharp pullbacks. ^[40]
• Short‑term traders will likely focus on technical levels around $495 resistance and $465 support, along with headlines around AI chips, Copilot reliability and Fed policy. TechStock²+1

For long‑term, growth‑oriented investors who believe in the secular AI trend and can tolerate volatility, Microsoft continues to look like a core AI blue chip supported by strong fundamentals and an army of bullish analysts.

For more conservative or valuation‑sensitive investors, the combination of a rich multiple, heavy AI capex, and emerging questions about near‑term AI monetization may justify patience, position sizing discipline, or waiting for better entry points.

Either way, the December 9 news reinforces a simple message:

Microsoft is still one of the central pillars of the AI trade—but the bar it has to clear is rising.

References

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