Microsoft stock heads into the final stretch of 2025 trading just below record territory, as investors weigh blockbuster cloud earnings, a reshaped OpenAI partnership, massive AI infrastructure spending and fresh legal victories in Europe.
On Friday, November 28, 2025, Microsoft Corporation (NASDAQ: MSFT) closed just under $492 per share, up about 1.3–1.4% on the day, according to multiple price trackers. [1] That puts the stock roughly 8–10% below its late‑October record closing high near $541, and an intraday peak above $555 earlier this year. [2]
At a market value around $3.6 trillion and a trailing price‑to‑earnings ratio in the mid‑30s, Microsoft remains one of the world’s most expensive – and closely watched – AI and cloud leaders. [3]
Below is a deep dive into the key drivers behind MSFT’s move as of November 29, 2025.
Microsoft Stock Today: Price, Range and Recent Moves
Recent data from Nasdaq, Investing.com and other providers show Microsoft shares: [4]
- Last close (Nov 28, 2025): just under $492 per share
- Previous close (Nov 26, 2025): $485.50, up 1.78% on the day
- One‑year range: roughly $345–$555
- Latest all‑time high close: about $541.06 on October 28, 2025
Fundamentally, Microsoft still looks like a classic mega‑cap “quality growth” name. Benzinga’s comparative analysis of software peers pegs MSFT at: [5]
- P/E: ~34.5 (slightly below the peer average)
- P/B: ~9.9 (also below the peer average)
- P/S: ~12.3 (above the peer average – investors pay up for revenue)
- Revenue growth: ~18% versus ~15% for the peer group
- Debt‑to‑equity: around 0.12–0.17, implying modest leverage
In other words, the market is paying a premium multiple, but not an absurd one by big‑tech standards, for a company growing faster than most of its software rivals with a relatively conservative balance sheet.
Q1 FY26: Cloud and AI Earnings Beat Expectations
The latest catalyst for Microsoft stock remains its fiscal 2026 first‑quarter earnings, released on October 29, 2025, for the period ended September 30. The numbers were emphatically about cloud and AI. [6]
Key highlights from Microsoft’s official release:
- Revenue: $77.7 billion, +18% year‑on‑year
- Operating income: $38.0 billion, +24%
- GAAP net income: $27.7 billion, +12%
- Non‑GAAP net income: $30.8 billion, +22%
- Non‑GAAP EPS:$4.13, up 23% and above Wall Street estimates around $3.65
The growth engine is clearly the cloud:
- Microsoft Cloud revenue: $49.1 billion, +26%
- Intelligent Cloud segment: $30.9 billion, +28%
- Azure and other cloud services:+40% revenue growth
Productivity and Business Processes (including Microsoft 365 and Dynamics 365) grew 17%, while More Personal Computing – the home of Windows, Xbox and search ads – grew a more modest 4%. [7]
Despite pouring tens of billions into AI infrastructure, Microsoft still generated enough cash to return $10.7 billion to shareholders in the quarter through dividends and buybacks. [8]
That backdrop explains why several outlets, including MarketBeat and Yahoo Finance, frame the quarter as a “strong beat” on both revenue and earnings, reinforcing the narrative that Microsoft is successfully monetizing AI and cloud demand. [9]
EU Antitrust Wins Ease a Persistent Cloud Overhang
One of the biggest new developments for Microsoft stock heading into November 29 is not an earnings figure but a regulatory twist in Europe.
Google drops its EU cloud complaint
On November 28, Reuters reported that Google withdrew its EU antitrust complaint against Microsoft’s cloud business. [10]
- Google had accused Microsoft of unfairly locking enterprise customers into Azure via licensing practices.
- The withdrawal comes as the European Commission opens a broader probe into the cloud sector under the EU’s Digital Markets Act (DMA), which is expected to scrutinize both Microsoft and Amazon as potential “gatekeepers.” [11]
For Microsoft shareholders, the move removes one direct source of legal friction even as sector‑wide regulation remains on the horizon. TipRanks summarized it as a “win” for Microsoft stock, underscoring the reduction in headline risk even under a stricter DMA regime. [12]
French watchdog dismisses Qwant’s complaint
In a second legal positive, the French antitrust authority dismissed a complaint brought by French search engine Qwant, which alleged Microsoft abused its dominant position and imposed unfair conditions related to search and AI services. [13]
Regulators found Qwant’s evidence insufficient to justify interim measures or a full‑fledged case. Microsoft welcomed the decision, while Qwant signaled it may pursue other legal avenues.
Taken together, these outcomes contribute to what TechStock² described as “EU cloud overhang easing” around Microsoft as of the shortened Black Friday trading session on November 28. TS2 Tech
Regulatory risk is far from gone – the DMA can still impose new obligations on Azure pricing, bundling and interoperability – but two immediate flashpoints have clearly cooled.
OpenAI Deal 2.0: A Deeper but More Flexible AI Alliance
AI remains the center of the Microsoft story, and nowhere is that clearer than in its evolving relationship with OpenAI.
In late October, Microsoft and OpenAI jointly announced a new long‑term agreement that restructures OpenAI’s commercial entity into a public benefit corporation (PBC) called OpenAI Group, while reaffirming Microsoft as OpenAI’s “frontier model partner.” [14]
Key elements of the revised partnership:
- Microsoft now holds an investment in OpenAI Group PBC valued at around $135 billion, representing roughly 27% on an as‑converted diluted basis. [15]
- Microsoft retains exclusive IP rights and Azure API exclusivity for OpenAI’s frontier models at least until the arrival of artificial general intelligence (AGI), with rights extended through 2032 and certain rights continuing even post‑AGI. [16]
- OpenAI gains more freedom to jointly develop products with third parties, while API products created in those collaborations remain tied to Azure. Non‑API products can run on other clouds. [17]
- Microsoft, crucially, is now explicitly free to pursue AGI independently or with other partners if it chooses. [18]
Beyond the legal framework, leaked documents reviewed by TechCrunch shed light on the money flows behind the partnership. According to that reporting: [19]
- Microsoft received about $494 million in revenue‑share payments from OpenAI in 2024.
- In the first three quarters of 2025, that figure surged to roughly $866 million.
- The two companies reportedly share around 20% of certain revenues in each direction, with Microsoft also kicking back a portion of Bing and Azure OpenAI Service revenue to OpenAI.
Those numbers illustrate that Microsoft’s OpenAI bet is not just strategic – it’s already a sizeable revenue stream on both sides of the ledger.
AI Partnerships Beyond OpenAI: Nvidia, Anthropic and Copilot for SMBs
OpenAI is the flagship partner, but not the only one.
Recent coverage from Barchart and Yahoo Finance highlights how Microsoft is deepening ties with Nvidia and Anthropic, positioning itself as both a first‑party model platform and a neutral infrastructure provider for third‑party AI developers. [20]
At the same time, November updates on Microsoft’s Partner Center show how the company is scaling AI monetization down‑market: [21]
- From December 1, 2025, Microsoft is launching Microsoft 365 Copilot Business, aimed at small and mid‑sized businesses (SMBs).
- Pricing is set at $21 per user per month (vs the $30 Copilot SKU), capped at 300 users and bundled with Microsoft 365 Business plans.
- Limited‑time promotions through March 31, 2026, offer 15–35% discounts on Copilot Business and various bundles, signaling an aggressive push to make AI assistants ubiquitous in everyday office workflows.
These moves – from hyperscale AI partnerships to SMB‑oriented Copilot tiers – underscore Microsoft’s strategy to turn generative AI from a buzzword into recurring subscription revenue across its entire portfolio.
The AI “Physics Problem”: Capex, Accounting and Margin Pressure
Despite stellar earnings and blue‑chip partnerships, not all commentary around Microsoft stock is unreservedly bullish.
A widely syndicated MarketBeat analysis describes Microsoft as facing an “AI‑driven physics problem”: the collision of massive AI capital expenditures with investors’ expectations for ever‑expanding margins. [22]
- The piece notes that MSFT shares are still roughly 9% below their 52‑week high, despite the strong Q1 print and 40% Azure growth. [23]
- The author argues that near‑term margin pressure from data‑center build‑outs could keep the stock in a consolidation phase even as fundamentals remain strong.
Separately, an in‑depth 24/7 Wall St. article relaying criticism from investor Michael Burry zooms in on AI infrastructure spending across Microsoft, Alphabet and Amazon: [24]
- Over the past two years, the three hyperscalers have collectively committed nearly $3 trillion to AI infrastructure.
- Microsoft alone plans about $80 billion of capex in fiscal 2025, mostly on data centers.
- Burry argues that by extending the depreciation lives of GPUs and servers to five or six years – in a world where hardware generations obsolete in two to three – big tech may be inflating reported AI profits today at the expense of future write‑downs.
His view is sharply contested, but it highlights a growing debate: how much of Microsoft’s current earnings strength is structural, and how much is tied to aggressive accounting choices around AI hardware?
So far, markets appear comfortable with the trade‑off. But the physics metaphor is apt: infinite AI capex and infinite margins cannot both exist forever, and investors are starting to model different equilibrium scenarios for 2026–2028.
Governance, CEO Pay and Shareholder Mood
While AI dominates headlines, traditional corporate‑governance questions are also on the table as Microsoft heads toward its Annual General Meeting on December 5, 2025.
Simply Wall St notes that under CEO Satya Nadella: [25]
- Earnings per share have grown about 15% per year over the past three years.
- Revenue is up roughly 16% over the last year.
- Total shareholder return over three years stands near 95%.
Against that performance backdrop, the board approved total CEO compensation of $96 million for the year to June 2025 – about 392% above the median for large U.S. software companies – though only around 3% of that is base salary, with the rest tied to stock and incentives. [26]
Analysts expect some shareholder scrutiny of pay levels and AI‑related risks at the AGM, but the strong share‑price performance makes a serious revolt unlikely in the near term.
Wall Street Sentiment: Expensive, But Still a Core AI Holding
Across Wall Street, sentiment on Microsoft remains strongly positive, even if the easy gains may be behind it for now.
- MarketBeat data show a “Moderate Buy” consensus with an average 12‑month price target around $634, implying high‑20s upside from current levels. [27]
- A separate analysis on TipRanks describes a “Strong Buy” consensus, based on roughly 33 Buy ratings and only two Holds, with an average target near $630. [28]
- Quant‑style platforms such as Simply Wall St and GuruFocus highlight Microsoft’s strong balance sheet, high returns on capital and consistent double‑digit earnings growth, while debating whether the shares are mildly over‑ or under‑valued relative to discounted cash‑flow estimates. [29]
At the same time, Zacks and other outlets note that MSFT is still down in the high single digits from its immediate post‑earnings peak, suggesting that some investors are content to lock in profits while they evaluate the sustainability of AI‑driven growth. [30]
What to Watch Next for MSFT
Looking beyond November 29, several themes will likely define the next leg of Microsoft’s stock story:
- AI monetization vs. capex: Can Azure sustain ~40% growth while Microsoft ramps AI data‑center spending toward the $80 billion mark without a sharp margin reset? [31]
- EU and global regulation: How far will the DMA and related cloud investigations go in reshaping Azure contracts, pricing and bundling, even after Google’s complaint withdrawal and the French Qwant decision? [32]
- OpenAI and third‑party AI ecosystems: Will the new OpenAI PBC structure, revenue‑sharing flows and expanded latitude for both sides accelerate innovation – or complicate governance and risk management? [33]
- Copilot adoption in the mass market: Can Microsoft 365 Copilot Business and related promotions turn AI copilots into a “must‑have” subscription for SMBs, not just large enterprises? [34]
- Shareholder stance on governance: The outcome of the December AGM, especially any pushback on executive compensation or AI risk disclosures, will signal how tolerant long‑term investors are of Microsoft’s increasingly aggressive bets. [35]
Bottom Line
As of November 29, 2025, Microsoft stock sits in a familiar place: near the top of the market, priced for continued excellence, and deeply entangled in the biggest secular trend of the decade – AI.
- The fundamentals – 18% revenue growth, 40% Azure growth, expanding cloud backlog – remain robust. [36]
- The strategic positioning – an expanded OpenAI partnership, new alliances with Nvidia and Anthropic, and a push to bring Copilot to millions of SMB workers – keeps Microsoft at the center of the AI narrative. [37]
- The risks – unprecedented AI capex, accounting scrutiny, and evolving EU regulation – are becoming clearer but not yet overwhelming. [38]
For now, the market still treats MSFT as a core AI and cloud holding, not a speculative bubble play. Whether that remains true into 2026 will depend less on bold new AI announcements and more on the unglamorous physics of cash flow, depreciation and regulation.
References
1. www.investing.com, 2. www.macrotrends.net, 3. longbridge.com, 4. www.investing.com, 5. www.benzinga.com, 6. www.microsoft.com, 7. www.microsoft.com, 8. www.microsoft.com, 9. www.marketbeat.com, 10. www.reuters.com, 11. www.reuters.com, 12. www.tipranks.com, 13. www.reuters.com, 14. blogs.microsoft.com, 15. openai.com, 16. blogs.microsoft.com, 17. blogs.microsoft.com, 18. blogs.microsoft.com, 19. techcrunch.com, 20. markets.chroniclejournal.com, 21. learn.microsoft.com, 22. finance.yahoo.com, 23. finance.yahoo.com, 24. 247wallst.com, 25. simplywall.st, 26. simplywall.st, 27. www.marketbeat.com, 28. www.tipranks.com, 29. simplywall.st, 30. finance.yahoo.com, 31. www.microsoft.com, 32. www.reuters.com, 33. blogs.microsoft.com, 34. learn.microsoft.com, 35. simplywall.st, 36. www.microsoft.com, 37. blogs.microsoft.com, 38. 247wallst.com
