Microsoft stock price in focus after AI spending jolt: what to watch before Monday’s open

Microsoft stock price in focus after AI spending jolt: what to watch before Monday’s open

New York, February 1, 2026, 09:42 ET — The market has closed.

Microsoft shares closed Friday at $430.29, slipping 0.7%, and head into the new week still rattled by Thursday’s sharp decline of nearly 10%.

The stock’s shake-up signals more than just trouble for one company. A packed earnings calendar, featuring megacaps, will challenge market mood following Microsoft’s misstep that dragged down indexes. “The onus is going to be on them to deliver,” said Jim Baird, chief investment officer at Plante Moran Financial Advisors. Reuters

Investors face a heavy slate of U.S. data this week, including Friday’s January payrolls report and surveys on business activity and job openings. However, Kiplinger cautions the calendar could shift, since some releases may be delayed due to the ongoing government shutdown.

Microsoft’s recent quarterly numbers looked solid at first glance: revenue climbed 17% to $81.3 billion for the quarter ending Dec. 31. Microsoft Cloud revenue surged 26% to $51.5 billion, with Azure and other cloud services jumping 39%. The company also reported its commercial remaining performance obligation — sales contracted but not yet recognized as revenue — more than doubled, soaring 110% to $625 billion. “We are only at the beginning phases of AI diffusion,” CEO Satya Nadella remarked. Microsoft

A regulatory filing revealed Microsoft released its earnings in an 8-K dated Jan. 28, attaching the press release as an exhibit.

What unsettled traders was the spending figure. Microsoft reported capital expenditures—covering data centers and equipment—hit $37.5 billion this quarter, a nearly 66% jump from last year. Executives forecast Azure revenue growth of 37% to 38% for the current quarter. CFO Amy Hood noted capex should be “slightly lower than in the just-completed quarter” but cautioned that rising memory-chip costs will pressure cloud margins over time. Nadella revealed 15 million annual users for the $30-a-month M365 Copilot assistant. Meanwhile, portfolio manager Eric Clark flagged costs climbing faster than revenue. Reuters

Late last week brought a new data point on demand for Microsoft’s cloud services. AI startup Perplexity inked a $750 million, three-year deal for Azure, Bloomberg News reported. A Microsoft spokesperson confirmed to Reuters that “Perplexity has chosen Microsoft Foundry as its primary AI platform for model sourcing.” Reuters

The selloff has brought a fresh concern into focus: the cost of AI infrastructure might hit before the benefits do. Microsoft’s stock dropped 10% on Thursday, erasing almost $360 billion in market value. Jefferies analyst Brent Thill pointed to the company’s backlog details, saying they “underscored worries” about the concentration risks linked to OpenAI, according to Investopedia.

Macro noise has returned to the spotlight. A partial U.S. government shutdown kicked in early Saturday when funding expired for certain agencies. The House is set to vote Monday on a bill that might end the shutdown, Barron’s reported.

The upcoming week is packed: Walt Disney kicks off earnings Monday, followed by Advanced Micro Devices on Tuesday. Alphabet reports Wednesday, with Amazon closing out the week on Thursday, per Kiplinger’s earnings calendar. Then on Friday, Feb. 6, the U.S. jobs report drops at 8:30 a.m. ET — a key moment for rate expectations and the valuations of big tech.

Khadija Saeed

Khadija Saeed is a financial markets reporter at TS2.tech. Her coverage ranges from stocks and technology to emerging industries and developments across global markets. She studied economics and finance at the London School of Economics and worked in market research before becoming a financial journalist. Follow Khadija Saeed on Google News.

US Stock Market Today Updates

AI PORTFOLIO

Top Stock Picks

Today’s highest-ranked model selections.

#1 Strong buy

Alphabet

NASDAQ:GOOGL 92/100 • ★★★★½
#2 Strong buy

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing

NYSE:TSM 89/100 • ★★★★½
#3 Buy

S&P Global

NYSE:SPGI 88/100 • ★★★★
#4 Buy on weakness

Amazon

NASDAQ:AMZN 86/100 • ★★★★
#5 Buy on weakness

Microsoft

NASDAQ:MSFT 84/100 • ★★★★
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Editorial model selection. Not personalised advice.
MARKET CALENDAR

Key Events Today

The catalysts most likely to move markets.

#1

U.S. index futures reopen at 18:00 ET

This is the clearest scheduled U.S.-market price-discovery point today and can transmit weekend news into equity-index futures before Monday's cash session.

#2

New Zealand retail sales at 18:45 ET

The Q2 retail package can move NZD and regional risk sentiment. Spillover to U.S. assets is usually secondary unless the result is unusually large.

#3

No scheduled domestic U.S. data or corporate reports

The absence of U.S. releases, earnings, IPO pricings and split events leaves fewer scheduled catalysts, increasing the relative importance of weekend headlines and positioning at the futures reopen.

View full calendar
Times and estimates may change. Verify before trading.
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