New York, January 5, 2026, 05:54 EST — Premarket
- Microsoft shares were down about 2.2% in premarket trading, underperforming the Nasdaq 100 ETF.
- Investors are bracing for U.S. jobs and inflation data that could reset rate-cut expectations.
- Microsoft is due to report results on Jan. 28, with attention on cloud growth and AI spending.
Microsoft (MSFT) shares fell about 2.2% in premarket trading on Monday to $472.94, while the Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ) — a widely used proxy for the Nasdaq 100 — slipped 0.2%. The move values Microsoft at roughly $3.85 trillion, with the stock trading at about 37 times trailing earnings, a valuation that can amplify swings when interest-rate expectations shift.
The pullback comes as markets head into a data-heavy week that investors see as critical for the outlook on U.S. interest rates. “The market is looking for direction,” said Matthew Maley, chief market strategist at Miller Tabak, as traders focus on Friday’s U.S. payrolls report and a consumer price index reading due on Jan. 13. 1
Another pressure point is the cost of the AI buildout itself. In a Reuters report on Monday, investors and strategists warned that the data-center boom led by hyperscalers — large cloud companies that run vast server farms — including Microsoft, Meta and Alphabet could add to inflation via rising energy and advanced chip costs, raising the risk that central banks pause or reverse rate cuts. 2
For Microsoft, the focus is whether spending on AI infrastructure and software features translates into faster growth without eroding margins. Traders have been watching for clear signs of payback in Azure and in Copilot-related products, alongside any shift in capital expenditure plans.
Microsoft is scheduled to report quarterly results on Jan. 28 after the market close. Analysts expect earnings of $3.86 per share, according to data published by Public.com. 3
That setup puts the spotlight on guidance. Investors want to see demand hold up as AI costs ripple through supply chains, while companies try to keep a lid on budgets for cloud and productivity software.
The competitive backdrop remains tight in cloud computing, with Microsoft and its largest rivals pushing to lock in customers for AI workloads. Any change in enterprise spending sentiment tends to show up first in forecasts for cloud growth and bookings.
But the downside case is clear. Stronger-than-expected inflation could push bond yields higher and compress valuations across megacap technology shares, while a weak jobs report could revive worries about a sharper economic slowdown and prompt risk-off positioning.
The next near-term test is Friday’s U.S. payrolls data. Microsoft’s next company-specific catalyst is Jan. 28, when it reports results and updates investors on its outlook for cloud and AI demand.
