MicroStrategy (MSTR) Stock Outlook: Bitcoin Shock, Preferred Shares and a Rare Discount

Updated: November 15, 2025

Quick Take

MSTR last close: $199.75 (Nasdaq, Nov. 14), down ~4% on the day. ^[1]
Bitcoin slump: BTC briefly dropped below $95,000 this week, roughly 25% below its early‑October all‑time high around $126,000, triggering heavy liquidations and ETF outflows. ^[2]
Now trading near “look‑through” value: Strategy Inc (the new corporate name for MicroStrategy) now holds about 641k BTC. At current prices, Barron’s estimates those holdings are worth more than the company’s market cap, putting MSTR at a rare slight discount to its Bitcoin stack. ^[3]
Aggressive financing continues: The company is layering on multiple high‑yield perpetual preferred share classes and a new euro‑denominated STRE series, while raising billions via at‑the‑market (ATM) equity programs. ^[4]
Guidance & earnings: Q2 and Q3 2025 showed headline net income of $10.0B and $2.8B, heavily driven by unrealized Bitcoin gains under new accounting rules, not by the underlying software business. ^[5]

Below is a deep‑dive analysis and a scenario‑based MSTR stock forecast going into late 2025 and 2026.

1. What Is MSTR Today? From MicroStrategy to “Strategy Inc.”

MicroStrategy has formally rebranded as Strategy Inc., but its common stock still trades under ticker MSTR on Nasdaq. The company is now, in practice, a leveraged Bitcoin holding vehicle with a legacy analytics/software business attached. ^[6]

Key structural facts:

Strategy is the largest corporate holder of Bitcoin, with recent disclosures and trackers showing around 640k–642k BTC on the balance sheet as of late October / early November 2025. ^[7]
It has introduced a family of preferred share tickers (STRF, STRC, STRK, STRD and now STRE), each with different dividend terms but all effectively high‑yield perpetual capital used to finance its Bitcoin strategy. ^[8]
The traditional software business remains small relative to the Bitcoin balance sheet, with revenues in the low hundreds of millions versus tens of billions of crypto assets. ^[9]

For SEO (and for most investors), this is still “MicroStrategy stock (MSTR),” but corporate communications and SEC filings now use the name Strategy Inc.

2. November 2025: What Just Happened to MSTR?

2.1 Price action: from premium to discount

As of the Nov. 14 close, MSTR finished at $199.75, giving Strategy a market cap around $59.9B. ^[10]

Meanwhile, Barron’s calculates that Strategy’s ~641,692 BTC were worth about $61.3B, meaning the market value of its Bitcoin holdings exceeded the company’s equity value – a sharp reversal from earlier in 2025, when MSTR traded at a $70–80B premium to its BTC stash. ^[11]

Finviz data show how brutal the recent drawdown has been: ^[12]

Down ~47% over the past six months
Down ~43% over the past quarter
Down ~30%+ year‑to‑date, depending on the source and start date

Several outlets highlight that MSTR is off 40–50% from its late‑2024 / early‑2025 highs, and that the once‑huge premium to net Bitcoin asset value (mNAV) has shrunk toward 1x or even slightly below. ^[13]

2.2 Bitcoin crash & macro rout

MSTR’s slide is happening against a violent Bitcoin correction:

BTC has fallen to the mid‑$90k area, with intraday lows around $94k–95k, down roughly 9% on the week and over 25% below its October peak above $126k. ^[14]
Spot Bitcoin ETFs have seen hundreds of millions of dollars in net outflows in a single day, the worst since early 2025, as risk appetite evaporates. ^[15]
Macro backdrop: investors are walking back expectations of near‑term Fed rate cuts, and growth/tech stocks have been hit broadly, amplifying pressure on high‑beta crypto plays like MSTR. ^[16]

Because MSTR is effectively leveraged long BTC (due to debt + preferred equity), its declines have been steeper than Bitcoin’s, mirroring past cycles.

2.3 Rumors of Bitcoin selling – and Saylor’s response

As Bitcoin and MSTR tanked this week, social media rumors claimed Strategy was dumping Bitcoin. Both Investopedia and CoinDesk report that: ^[17]

On‑chain observers noticed BTC moving from addresses believed to belong to Strategy.
Speculation swirled that Michael Saylor was finally selling into the rout.
Saylor went on CNBC and then X to flatly deny any sales, insisting “there is no truth to this rumor” and that the company is in fact “buying quite a lot” and accelerating purchases.
He reiterated a long‑term bullish stance on Bitcoin, while acknowledging the difficulty of near‑term forecasts amid the current volatility.

CoinDesk quotes Saylor saying the firm would “report our next buys on Monday morning” and notes that MSTR was down about 4% intraday and trading below $200 during his comments, leaving the stock ~35% lower year‑to‑date. ^[18]

2.4 Short sellers declare victory as the premium collapses

Perhaps the most symbolic November headline: legendary short‑seller Jim Chanos has publicly closed his short‑MSTR/long‑BTC pair trade, claiming victory. ^[19]

Chanos originally argued that MSTR’s 2.5x+ premium to its Bitcoin holdings was unsustainable and that investors would eventually prefer owning BTC directly.
After the premium shrank toward ~1.2x and then dipped below 1x on some measures, he said the trade had largely played out, estimating roughly 50% profit on the pair trade.
His exit itself is a sign that the “easy” premium‑compression trade may now be behind the market.

2.5 Q3 2025 earnings: massive profits, but mostly on paper

On October 30, 2025, Strategy reported Q3 2025 results: ^[20]

Operating income: about $3.9B
Net income: about $2.78–2.8B
Diluted EPS: $8.42
BTC holdings: ~640,808 BTC at a total cost of $47.44B (≈$74,032 per BTC) as of late October.
These huge profits are driven mainly by unrealized gains on Bitcoin under updated accounting rules that now flow fair‑value changes into earnings.

Q2 was even more eye‑catching: $10.0B in net income and EPS of $32.60, again powered primarily by Bitcoin revaluation gains. ^[21]

However, an accompanying 8‑K spelled out that, for U.S. tax purposes, the company does not expect to have “current earnings and profits” for at least ten years, so its distributions on equity are expected to be treated as return of capital (ROC) rather than taxable dividends. ^[22]

That line is crucial: on a tax definition, Strategy doesn’t see itself generating traditional earnings any time soon. The story is all about Bitcoin’s fair value, not recurring operating profits from software.

2.6 New preferred stock and financing wave: STRE & friends

November also saw a continuation of Strategy’s extremely active capital‑markets strategy:

November 3 & 7, 2025: the company announced and then priced a new STRE Perpetual Preferred Stockoffering, including a euro‑denominated initial public offering of the STRE series. ^[23]
SEC and press materials highlight a stack of preferred tickers (STRF, STRC, STRK, STRD, STRE) each paying high single‑digit or double‑digit coupons, with STRC’s rate recently boosted from 10.25% to 10.50%. ^[24]
Nasdaq and other outlets note that Strategy has also been running multiple ATM programs across its common and preferred shares, raising over $5B in Q3 alone (roughly $2.2B from MSTR, plus large amounts from STRK, STRF and STRD). ^[25]

The result is a capital structure with:

Market cap: ~$59.9B
Enterprise value: ~$73.9B (meaning roughly $14B of net debt plus preferred capital). ^[26]

Investors are now openly debating whether the growing dividend obligations and potential future dilution justify the leveraged Bitcoin strategy. ^[27]

3. How “Cheap” Is MSTR vs Its Bitcoin?

3.1 BTC per share and implied value

Across data providers, shares outstanding for MSTR cluster in the ~270–290M range as of Q3. ^[28]

Using:

BTC holdings ≈ 641k BTC ^[29]
Shares ≈ 280M (midpoint of reported ranges)
BTC price ≈ $95k–$100k after the recent selloff ^[30]

…we get rough estimates:

BTC per MSTR share: ~0.0022–0.0024 BTC
Look‑through Bitcoin value per share at $95k BTC: roughly $210–230
Versus MSTR share price of $199.75, implying a modest discount to the spot value of its BTC stack before even considering the software business (or the debt and preferred structure).

Barron’s arrives at a similar conclusion at the corporate level, noting market cap (~$59.9B) < BTC holdings value (~$61.3B) as of Nov. 14. ^[31]

3.2 mNAV and leverage

But it’s not that simple:

Enterprise value (including debt and preferred stock) is around $73.9B, well above the BTC holdings value. ^[32]
That means equity holders effectively own Bitcoin with leverage, plus obligations to pay 8–10.5%+ coupons on the various perpetual preferreds. ^[33]
Analysts often focus on mNAV (market cap / Bitcoin holdings value). After periods when mNAV reached 2.5x or more, it has now fallen down near 1.0–1.25x, with some sources noting mNAV slipping below 1x during Friday’s selloff. ^[34]

So while headline valuations suggest MSTR might be “cheap vs its Bitcoin,” the capital structure and future financing risk are the reasons many investors are cautious.

4. Fundamental Drivers for MSTR Going Forward

4.1 Bitcoin price and volatility

This is obvious but central: MSTR is essentially a high‑beta Bitcoin derivative.

Key near‑term BTC narratives: ^[35]

BTC has lost about a quarter of its value since October’s record highs.
Some analysts now target downside toward $84k in the current correction. ^[36]
Others see this as a typical crypto shake‑out in a broader bull cycle, noting that even $95k BTC is a massive increase versus levels just over a year ago. ^[37]

Given the embedded leverage, a further 10–20% move in BTC can translate into much larger percentage swings in MSTR, up or down.

4.2 Capital raising & dilution

Strategy’s playbook has been consistent:

Issue debt and preferred stock at high coupons: e.g. 10%+ perpetual preferreds, convertible notes, and STRE. ^[38]
Run large ATM issuance programs for both common and preferred, selling into market strength. ^[39]
Use the proceeds to buy more Bitcoin, aiming to increase BTC per share (“BPS”) and achieve aggressive “BTC Yield” and “BTC $ Gain” KPI targets (e.g. 15%+ BTC yield and $10B BTC gains per year). ^[40]

This creates two opposing forces for common shareholders:

Positive: More BTC per share if buys outpace dilution.
Negative: Higher fixed obligations and potential future dilution if markets demand even richer coupons or lower prices for new capital.

November’s STRE launch and STRC rate hike underscore that Strategy is doubling down on perpetual, high‑yield capital, not dialing back. ^[41]

4.3 Regulatory and macro environment

U.S. crypto policy has turned broadly supportive at the federal level, including pro‑Bitcoin rhetoric and the continued success of spot BTC ETFs, which initially helped drive 2025’s rally. ^[42]
However, ongoing rate‑cut uncertainty, government shutdown noise and global risk‑off sentiment have made crypto and high‑growth tech especially vulnerable this quarter. ^[43]

Regulatory shocks or changes in ETF flows will likely show up first in BTC, then magnified in MSTR.

5. MSTR Stock Forecast: Scenario Framework (Late 2025–2026)

This is not personalized investment advice, but a scenario framework that reflects current data as of November 15, 2025.

5.1 Bull case: Bitcoin reclaims the highs and the premium returns

Assumptions

Bitcoin stabilizes around current levels and retests $120k–150k in 2026, roughly in line with some of Saylor’s previous optimistic comments. ^[44]
Investor appetite for leveraged Bitcoin exposure revives, and mNAV expands back toward 1.5–2.0x as the market pays a premium for Strategy’s “active BTC treasury” story. ^[45]
The company successfully issues more preferred and common equity at reasonable terms without hitting investor fatigue.

Implications for MSTR

At $120k–150k BTC, Strategy’s ~641k BTC would be worth roughly $77–96B.
If the market again valued MSTR at 1.5x BTC holdings, equity value could theoretically reach $115B–140B, versus ~$60B today — implying very large upside for the stock in a raging BTC bull market. ^[46]
However, this assumes no major negative surprise on the financing side (e.g., an inability to roll or service high‑coupon preferreds).

5.2 Base case: Range‑bound BTC, compressed premium

Assumptions

Bitcoin chops in a wide $80k–110k range through most of 2026.
MSTR’s mNAV oscillates modestly around 1.0–1.3x, as investors remain split between “it’s cheap vs BTC” and “the leverage and dilution risks justify a discount.” ^[47]
Preferred issuance continues, but markets demand high coupons; ATM issuance becomes more opportunistic rather than constant.

Implications for MSTR

MSTR likely trades in a wide but mean‑reverting band, roughly tracking Bitcoin with higher volatility.
The software business and any incremental BTC accumulation could slowly add value, but capital costs may cap upside.
For traders, this scenario favors volatility‑oriented strategies (options, tactical trading) over simple buy‑and‑hold.

5.3 Bear case: Deeper BTC drawdown + financing stress

Assumptions

Bitcoin breaks key support levels and heads down toward $70k–84k, as some technical analysts now warn. ^[48]
ETF outflows persist, liquidity thins further, and risk‑off sentiment spreads across tech and crypto. ^[49]
Strategy continues to have significant interest and dividend obligations on its debt and preferreds, and the market becomes less willing to fund additional issues at attractive prices.

Implications for MSTR

With enterprise value already above BTC holdings, a sharp BTC drop can wipe out equity value quickly in a leveraged structure. ^[50]
If BTC hovers well below Strategy’s average purchase price (~$74k), the company could face market pressure to slow or reverse purchases, or even to consider selling BTC to manage obligations—something Saylor strongly resists today. ^[51]
Under extreme stress, equity holders would be the residual risk‑bearers after bond and preferred investors, meaning MSTR could significantly underperform BTC on the downside.

6. Key Things for MSTR Investors and Traders to Watch

Bitcoin price levels and volatility
- Key technical zones: ~$100k as psychological resistance/support, and the $84k downside target flagged in recent research pieces. ^[52]
Strategy’s dashboard & SEC filings
- Updates on BTC holdings, BPS, BTC Yield and BTC $ Gain KPIs. ^[53]
- New 8‑Ks/424B5 filings for debt and preferred issuance, especially terms (coupon, size, convertibility). ^[54]
Preferred stock behavior (STRF, STRC, STRK, STRD, STRE)
- Sustained high yields may signal growing perceived risk.
- Sharp price drops in preferreds could foreshadow stress before it appears in MSTR.
Short interest and positioning
- With high‑profile shorts like Jim Chanos exiting, future moves could be driven more by long‑only flows and ETF/derivative hedging than by short squeezes. ^[55]
Macro indicators
- Fed policy expectations, volatility indices, and flows into risk assets and Bitcoin ETFs will remain crucial context for MSTR’s swings. ^[56]

7. Bottom Line: Is MSTR Attractive After the November Selloff?

As of November 15, 2025, the story of MicroStrategy / Strategy (MSTR) looks like this:

The stock has crashed back toward the value of its Bitcoin holdings, erasing much of the speculative premium built earlier this year. ^[57]
On simple “look‑through BTC per share,” MSTR now trades at a modest discount to its underlying coin stack, a stark contrast with the 2–8x premiums of past cycles. ^[58]
However, that headline “discount” comes with significant leverage and financing risk: billions in debt, a complex and growing suite of high‑coupon perpetual preferreds, and no expectation of conventional taxable earnings for many years. ^[59]
The software business remains real but small relative to the Bitcoin thesis; its contribution is unlikely to dominate valuation in the near term. ^[60]

For bullish Bitcoin investors, MSTR at these levels may look like a leveraged, actively managed BTC proxy trading around intrinsic BTC value — with the potential for outsized upside if Bitcoin resumes its climb and the market once again pays a premium for Saylor’s strategy.

For more conservative or income‑focused investors, the volatility, capital‑structure complexity and dependence on a single volatile asset make MSTR a very risky way to gain crypto exposure compared to holding BTC or ETFs directly.

Either way, MSTR is no longer just a high‑flying speculation on a Bitcoin premium; after this month’s selloff, it has become a live test of whether a heavily leveraged corporate BTC treasury model can sustainably create long‑term equity value.

Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational and educational purposes only and is not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security or cryptocurrency. Markets and company fundamentals can change quickly; always do your own research and consider speaking with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.

How does MicroStrategy buy Bitcoin - Explained in under 3 minutes