MicroStrategy (MSTR) Stock Skyrockets on Crypto Tax Break

MicroStrategy (MSTR) on Oct. 2 2025: Why the Bitcoin Treasury King Keeps Making Headlines

3 October 2025

Today’s price (Oct 3, 2025): ~$355 (as of 12:55 PM ET), up about +0.8% on the day ^[1]. Yesterday (Oct 2) the stock closed at $352.33, up from $338.41 on Oct 1 ^[2].
Volume/Volatility: Trading has been heavy (~13.6 million shares on Oct 2 ^[3]) and intraday swings have been large (Oct 2 range $341–$353).
Recent quarter (Q2 2025): Record net income of $10.0 B (EPS $32.60) on $14.0 B operating income ^[4], driven by a $14.0 B unrealized Bitcoin gain ^[5] ^[6]. Full-year 2025 guidance was raised to ~$24 B net income (EPS ~$80) ^[7].
Bitcoin holdings: ~640,000 BTC (cost basis ≈$70–73K each ^[8]), with unrealized gains ~+60%. As of Q2 2025 the company held 628,791 BTC (cost $46.1 B) and had achieved a 25% Bitcoin “yield” (profit) YTD ^[9]. It continues buying (~5,000–20,000 BTC per week) as market conditions allow.
Business strategy: MicroStrategy (Nasdaq: MSTR) rebranded to Strategy Inc. in August 2025 ^[10]. It calls itself the “world’s first and largest Bitcoin Treasury Company” ^[11] ^[12], raising capital via equity/debt to buy BTC. In Q2 it raised >$10 B via ATM share offerings and IPOs, boosting its BTC-per-share and expanding “Bitcoin per Share” ~+25% YTD ^[13]. It has also launched innovative products (e.g. the STRC high-yield preferred stock) to fund crypto purchases ^[14] ^[15]. The legacy enterprise analytics software business is still operating (Q2 software revenue +2.7% YoY ^[16]) but has become secondary to the Bitcoin strategy.
Crypto market: Bitcoin has surged to new highs recently – trading in the $116–120K range (all-time high above $120K) on renewed institutional demand and ETF inflows ^[17] ^[18]. The firm’s stock moves closely with Bitcoin. A key development this week is recent IRS guidance clarifying that corporations may exclude unrealized crypto gains from the base for the new 15% corporate minimum tax (CAMT). Strategy said this means it will not owe the CAMT despite ~$27 B in Bitcoin profits, removing a major overhang ^[19] ^[20].

Today’s Stock Performance (Oct 3, 2025)

MicroStrategy stock has been volatile this week amid crypto news. On Oct 1 it leapt ~+6% intraday (to ~$343) when Strategy filed an SEC update explaining that Treasury/IRS rules exempt crypto gains from the new minimum corporate tax ^[21]. That rally carried into the close. Yesterday (Oct 2) MSTR opened around $348.57, traded as high as $353.22 and as low as $341.15, before closing at $352.33 on ~13.63 M shares ^[22]. As of midday Oct 3, the stock is around $355.24, up roughly +0.8% on the day (adding a few dollars) ^[23]. By comparison, the S&P 500 is up only ~+0.5% on the day ^[24]. The daily range in recent sessions has been several percentage points, reflecting high volatility as Bitcoin fluctuates above $115K. Trading volume remains well above the long-term average.

Recent Financial Performance & Strategy

Strategy (MicroStrategy) continues to report astronomical profits thanks to its Bitcoin Treasury. In Q2 (period ended Jun 30, 2025), the company reported $14.0 B operating income and $10.0 B net income (EPS $32.60) ^[25] – a turnaround from prior losses. These gains came almost entirely from an unrealized $14.0 B fair-value gain on its crypto holdings ^[26] ^[27]. The company’s CFO guided to full-year 2025 net income ~$24 B (EPS ~$80) assuming Bitcoin reaches $150K by year-end ^[28]. Strategy’s balance sheet shows cash just ~$50 M (nominal) but ~$46 B of Bitcoin cost basis. It finances its crypto buys via equity/debt: in Q2 it raised over $10 B through new share issuances (including the July IPO of STRC preferred stock) ^[29] ^[30]. For example, in July 2025 Strategy introduced STRC, a variable-rate preferred share, raising $2.5 B in an IPO (world’s largest crypto IPO of 2025) and later announced an additional $4.2 B ATM offering for STRC ^[31] ^[32]. These funds are earmarked to acquire more Bitcoin and support operations ^[33]. Notably, Strategy scrapped an earlier promise to cap share dilution (mNAV rule), preferring to freely issue stock for crypto purchases. Software revenues remain modest ($114.5 M in Q2, +2.7% YoY ^[34]) and the legacy business provides a steady ($0.3 B/yr) cash flow, but nearly all shareholder value today comes from the massive Bitcoin trove.

Bitcoin’s Role & Crypto Trends

Bitcoin’s price action is the key driver of Strategy’s stock. In late July, passage of a crypto-friendly bill (the GENIUS Act) helped Bitcoin briefly top $120,000 ^[35]. As of early Oct, Bitcoin trades around $115–120K. “Bitcoin currently trades around $116,600,” Reuters noted at Q2-reporting time ^[36]. Thanks to its early and aggressive accumulation, Strategy now holds ~640,000 BTC (bringing total costs to ~$46–48 B) ^[37] ^[38]. At today’s prices, that stash is worth well over $70 B, giving the company roughly 1.6x leverage. The result: fair-value accounting swings cause enormous earnings swings. As one analyst summarized, bitcoin’s jump from ~$107K to ~$114K in Q3 implies net income ~$2.9 B for MSTR ($10/share) ^[39], which if realized would be its second straight profitable quarter.

Recent crypto-market news has been broadly positive: renewed ETF inflows and institutional demand have taken Bitcoin to new highs (above $120K) ^[40]. (By contrast, gold and other assets have lagged.) Crypto sentiment feeds into MSTR: on Oct 3 afternoon, Bitcoin was up ~+3% which coincided with a small uptick in MSTR ^[41]. In short, crypto trends are at the core of MicroStrategy’s valuation.

Analyst Commentary & Quotes

Industry watchers are upbeat but cautious. Bloomberg’s James Seyffart (ETF analyst) recently tweeted that Strategy “will be eligible for S&P 500 index inclusion in December.” ^[42] (In fact, MSTR meets all formal criteria and was added to the Nasdaq‑100 in Dec 2024 ^[43] ^[44]; S&P inclusion is seen as a logical next step if it sustains profits.) Coindesk quoted a Strive Capital analyst projecting ~$2.9 B net income (≈$10/sh) for Q3 based on bitcoin’s move to ~$114K ^[45]. JPMorgan analysts (via Bloomberg/The Block) warned that S&P’s recent decision not to add Strategy was “a significant blow to the entire corporate crypto treasury industry,” signaling caution on such high-volatility business models ^[46]. On an earnings call Saylor himself said “We’re in a hyper-growth, hyper-adoption phase for bitcoin as a treasury reserve asset.” ^[47]. Overall, most Wall Street ratings are bullish: 15 tracked analysts give MSTR a “Moderate Buy” consensus (11 buy, 2 hold, 1 sell) ^[48].

Recent News & Headlines

Major news over the past week has driven sentiment. On Oct 1, Strategy filed an 8-K noting Treasury/IRS guidance to exclude unrealized crypto gains from the new 15% corporate minimum tax ^[49]; MSTR shares jumped ~6–7% on that news ^[50]. That same day CoinDesk and others pointed out that Strategy appears on track for its second profitable quarter, keeping alive hopes of S&P inclusion ^[51]. Earlier in September, Strategy disclosed another large Bitcoin purchase (~1,955 BTC for $217M, average ~$111K) raising its holdings to ~638k BTC ^[52]. (This was despite disappointment that S&P 500 opted to add Robinhood instead of Strategy in September.) In August, the company formally rebranded to “Strategy Inc.” from MicroStrategy ^[53], emphasizing its Bitcoin focus. No recent SEC issues or legal troubles have emerged – the story is dominated by crypto/tax news and the sheer scale of bitcoin gains.

Comparisons & Forecasts

Compared to broader benchmarks, MSTR has shown superior gains in 2025. Since the start of the year, MicroStrategy is up roughly ~15–20% (as of early Oct) ^[54], easily outpacing the S&P 500 or Nasdaq (each up only ~0–5%). (Over a longer window, from Oct 2024 to Oct 2025, its stock roughly quadrupled from ~$130 to ~$550 at peak, per 52-week range ^[55].) The stock’s trading volume also often exceeds tech giants on large moves, reflecting retail/ETF flows seeking crypto exposure. By contrast, pure-software peers or crypto miners have seen much smaller rallies. For example, Nvidia and Coinbase gained more modestly alongside the tech rally.

Wall Street price targets remain wide but skew high. According to MarketBeat, the consensus 12-month price target is around $509 (implying ~43% upside) ^[56]. Investing.com notes an average target ~$566 (∼58% upside), with top targets as high as $705 and lows near $200 ^[57]. In short, analysts see significant potential upside if bitcoin continues to climb – though they warn of volatility.

Sources: Stock quotes and volume from Yahoo Finance/MarketBeat (via StatMuse) ^[58] ^[59]; Q2 financials and filings from BusinessWire/Company releases ^[60] ^[61]; Bitcoin market context from Reuters ^[62] and CoinDesk ^[63]; analyst commentary from Bloomberg/Coindesk (Seyffart, Walton) ^[64] ^[65]; JPMorgan insight from The Block/ForkLog ^[66]; price targets from MarketBeat/Investing.com ^[67] ^[68]. All information is current as of Oct 3, 2025.

MSTR vs A Bitcoin ETF

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MicroStrategy (MSTR) Stock Skyrockets on Crypto Tax Break – Is a 50% Rally Next?

Today’s Stock Performance (Oct 3, 2025)

Recent Financial Performance & Strategy

Bitcoin’s Role & Crypto Trends

Analyst Commentary & Quotes

Recent News & Headlines

Comparisons & Forecasts

References

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