MicroStrategy stock — now trading under the corporate name Strategy Inc. (NASDAQ: MSTR) — is heading into the weekend under heavy pressure as Bitcoin’s sharp reversal, potential index-removal risk, and a complex capital structure all collide.
As of the close on Friday, November 21, 2025, MSTR finished at $170.50, down about 3.7% on the day, capping one of its worst months since the company adopted its Bitcoin-treasury strategy in 2020. [1]
At the same time, Strategy remains the largest corporate holder of Bitcoin in the world, with nearly 649,870 BTC on its balance sheet at an average acquisition price of about $74,433 per coin. [2] That positioning has turned MSTR into a high‑beta “Bitcoin proxy” — and in the current crypto downturn, that has cut both ways.
MicroStrategy (MSTR) stock price today
- Last close (Nov. 21, 2025): $170.50
- Intraday range: roughly $166–$181
- Volume: around 29 million shares traded on Friday, signaling intense activity. [3]
Over a longer lens, the selling has been severe:
- 1‑month performance: MSTR is down roughly 39–40% over the past 30 days. [4]
- 12‑month performance: Shares have fallen more than 55% year-on-year. [5]
- From the record high: According to CoinDesk, the stock now trades about 68% below the $543 peak it hit roughly a year ago. [6]
Put simply, anyone buying MicroStrategy for Bitcoin leverage has just experienced the downside of that leverage.
Bitcoin’s crash is dragging MicroStrategy down with it
The single biggest driver of MSTR’s slide over the last few weeks is straightforward: Bitcoin has entered a sharp bear phase.
- Bitcoin climbed above $126,000 in early October 2025 before tumbling more than 30% to the low‑$80,000s in recent days. [7]
- During the same period, Strategy stock has suffered one of its steepest drawdowns since it began using Bitcoin as its primary treasury asset. [8]
Because the company holds about 649,870 BTC, bought for roughly $48.4 billion in total, the value of its stash now fluctuates in a $50–60 billion range depending on the Bitcoin price. [9]
JPMorgan analysts recently highlighted that with an average purchase price of about $74,433 per Bitcoin, a further decline of around 15% from this week’s levels could push the entire position into the red on a cost-basis. [10] That “break‑even” line has become a psychological level for many investors.
MSTR has become a hedge — and that adds extra selling pressure
One of the more striking developments this month is how institutional crypto investors are using MSTR itself as a hedge.
According to CoinDesk, Tom Lee of Bitmine Immersion argues that Strategy stock has become a “pressure valve” for the broader crypto market:
- He notes that MSTR has dropped about 43% over the past month, in part because investors are shorting the stock to offset losses in Bitcoin and Ethereum amid still‑thin crypto derivatives liquidity. [11]
- With nearly 650,000 BTC and very liquid options, MSTR is behaving like a listed, leveraged Bitcoin hedge for large players who can’t easily offload risk in on‑chain markets. [12]
That means the stock isn’t just following Bitcoin down — it’s absorbing additional selling pressure from hedging flows, which can amplify its moves relative to the underlying crypto.
From index dream to index risk: S&P rejection and MSCI review
For years, MicroStrategy bulls hoped major index inclusion would lock in structural demand for the stock. The company did make it into the Nasdaq‑100 in late 2024, but on the S&P 500 front, things went the other way. [13]
- The S&P 500 index committee has repeatedly declined to admit Strategy, despite its market cap and trading volume meeting typical requirements. Analysts and commentators have suggested S&P is wary of adding a company that behaves more like a Bitcoin fund than a diversified operating business. [14]
Now, a more serious threat has appeared:
- MSCI is reviewing whether to remove companies whose digital‑asset holdings exceed 50% of total assets from some of its flagship equity indexes. Strategy, with its balance sheet dominated by Bitcoin, sits at the extreme end of that spectrum. [15]
- JPMorgan has warned that outright removal from key MSCI benchmarks could trigger about $2.8 billion in forced selling, and potentially up to $8.8 billion if other index providers follow suit. [16]
The consultation is set to culminate in a decision around January 15, 2026, turning index risk into one of the biggest near‑term overhangs for MSTR.
Debt load and preferred shares: leverage cuts both ways
Another layer of concern is Strategy’s capital structure, which has become increasingly complex and expensive.
Convertible debt coming due
A fresh analysis from Investor’s Business Daily highlights how the stock’s slump below key conversion prices has changed the math on Strategy’s convertible notes: [17]
- With the share price now well under conversion levels, bondholders have less incentive to convert to equity.
- That raises the risk that Strategy may need to repay about $1 billion in cash in 2027, as part of a broader $6.6–6.8 billion debt wall maturing through 2028.
- S&P Global rates the company’s credit at B‑, citing liquidity risks if Bitcoin prices remain depressed. Rising interest and dividend commitments could reach roughly $2 billion a year by 2029 if current structures remain in place. [18]
In short, the longer Bitcoin stays below its highs, the harder it may become to roll or refinance these obligations on favorable terms.
High‑yield preferred stock
On top of the convertibles, Strategy has raised billions via high‑yield preferred shares:
- Barron’s notes that the company has issued around $8 billion of preferred stock across multiple series (STRC, STRD, STRF, STRK), most of which now trade below par but offer double‑digit yields in the 10–15% range. [19]
Those preferreds have attracted some income‑seeking investors who are comfortable with crypto risk, but they also represent another layer of fixed obligations that sit ahead of common shareholders.
Still “buying the dip”: new capital and fresh Bitcoin
Despite the stress, Strategy has doubled down on its Bitcoin‑maximalist strategy.
- Investopedia reports that between November 10 and 16, the company purchased an additional 8,178 BTC for roughly $835 million, at an average price of just over $102,000 per coin. [20]
- Strategy’s own disclosures show total holdings now at about 649,870 BTC, with an aggregate cost of roughly $48.4 billion, implying an average price of $74,433 per Bitcoin. [21]
- According to Insider Monkey, a recent European offering raised about €620 million, with proceeds expected to fund additional Bitcoin purchases, allowing Strategy to expand its treasury without issuing more common stock. [22]
Executive chairman Michael Saylor has repeatedly argued that the company has decades of runway and that Bitcoin will ultimately make the strategy look conservative — but the market is increasingly testing that conviction in real time. [23]
What Wall Street analysts are saying about MSTR
Despite the violent drawdown, sell‑side analysts remain broadly constructive — at least on paper.
- MarketBeat data shows that 18 research firms currently cover Strategy (MSTR), with a consensus rating of “Moderate Buy”: 13 buys, 4 holds, and 1 strong buy. [24]
- The average 12‑month price target sits around $485.80, implying significant upside from the ~$170 level — if Bitcoin recovers and index risks don’t materialize. [25]
However, many of those targets were set before the latest leg lower in Bitcoin and before MSCI’s review fully hit the headlines, so investors should treat them as moving parts, not fixed anchors.
Is MicroStrategy (MSTR) stock a buy now?
Whether MSTR is attractive at current levels depends almost entirely on your view of Bitcoin, your tolerance for leverage, and your time horizon. This is not a traditional enterprise software stock anymore — it’s a highly financialized Bitcoin vehicle, with an operating analytics business attached.
Potential reasons bulls are watching MSTR
- Largest corporate Bitcoin holder: If Bitcoin eventually makes new highs, a company holding nearly 650,000 coins could see enormous mark‑to‑market gains. [26]
- Embedded leverage: Because of its debt and preferred stack, the equity can move more than Bitcoin on the upside, which is precisely what attracted many early bulls. [27]
- Equity market wrapper: Some institutions and individuals may find it easier (or more comfortable) to own a Nasdaq‑listed stock and its options chain than to hold or custody Bitcoin directly. [28]
Major risks to keep in mind
- Bitcoin downside risk: A sustained drop below the company’s roughly $74,000 average buy‑in would push its Bitcoin position into unrealized loss territory and could make equity or debt markets less forgiving. [29]
- Index‑removal overhang: A negative MSCI decision in January could force large passive funds to sell billions of dollars’ worth of MSTR, potentially creating a fresh leg down regardless of Bitcoin’s short‑term moves. [30]
- High leverage + expensive capital: Between convertibles, preferred stock, and a sub‑investment‑grade credit rating, Strategy has limited room for error if the crypto bear market deepens or lasts longer than expected. [31]
- Hedging flows: With institutional traders using MSTR as a proxy hedge, the stock can suffer outsized declines even on days when Bitcoin is merely flat or modestly down. [32]
- Extreme volatility: Friday’s session alone saw the price swing from the mid‑$160s to above $180 — moves of 5–10% in a single day are common. [33]
For long‑term, high‑risk‑tolerant investors who are already convinced Bitcoin will be dramatically higher in the coming years, MSTR might look like a leveraged, equity‑based way to express that view. For most others, especially those uncomfortable with double‑digit daily swings or complex capital structures, the stock is likely too volatile and too specialized.
What to watch next for MicroStrategy stock
Looking ahead from today, November 22, 2025, these are the key catalysts likely to drive MSTR:
- Bitcoin price vs. Strategy’s average cost
The closer BTC trades to (or below) the $74,433 average acquisition level, the more intense the scrutiny will be on Strategy’s balance sheet resilience. [34] - MSCI’s index decision (January 2026)
Any confirmation of removal — or a decision to keep Strategy in major benchmarks — could trigger a sharp, possibly violent, repricing in the stock. [35] - New capital market moves
Watch for additional preferred offerings, convertible refinancings, or other creative structures like the recent “Stretch” preferred issue, as these will affect both dilution and fixed obligations. [36] - Rating‑agency updates and covenants
Any change in S&P Global’s B‑ credit rating or commentary around liquidity will likely influence market confidence in Strategy’s ability to ride out a prolonged crypto winter. [37] - Regulatory and macro crypto news
MSTR trades as a high‑beta proxy on broader crypto sentiment. Shifts in U.S. or global regulation, ETF flows, interest‑rate expectations, or macro risk appetite can all show up quickly in the share price. [38]
Bottom line: As of November 22, 2025, MicroStrategy/Strategy Inc. stock sits at the intersection of a Bitcoin bear market, index‑provider skepticism, and a leveraged balance sheet — a combination that creates huge upside if crypto recovers, but equally large downside if the stress intensifies.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Before buying or selling MSTR, consider your risk tolerance, your conviction on Bitcoin, and, ideally, consult a qualified financial professional.
References
1. stockanalysis.com, 2. www.strategy.com, 3. stockanalysis.com, 4. www.financecharts.com, 5. www.financecharts.com, 6. www.coindesk.com, 7. www.investopedia.com, 8. www.coindesk.com, 9. www.strategy.com, 10. m.economictimes.com, 11. www.coindesk.com, 12. www.coindesk.com, 13. de.wikipedia.org, 14. www.ft.com, 15. www.barrons.com, 16. www.barrons.com, 17. www.investors.com, 18. www.investors.com, 19. www.barrons.com, 20. www.investopedia.com, 21. www.strategy.com, 22. www.insidermonkey.com, 23. www.investors.com, 24. www.marketbeat.com, 25. www.marketbeat.com, 26. en.wikipedia.org, 27. www.ft.com, 28. www.coindesk.com, 29. www.strategy.com, 30. www.barrons.com, 31. www.investors.com, 32. www.coindesk.com, 33. stockanalysis.com, 34. www.strategy.com, 35. www.barrons.com, 36. www.ft.com, 37. www.investors.com, 38. www.investopedia.com
