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Mineral Resources (ASX:MIN) share price drops 6% despite lithium guidance upgrade
31 January 2026
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Mineral Resources (ASX:MIN) share price drops 6% despite lithium guidance upgrade

Sydney, Jan 31, 2026, 16:49 AEDT — Market closed

Shares of Mineral Resources Ltd (MIN.AX) dropped 6.3% on Friday, ending the session at A$57.15. That marked a sharp decline from Thursday’s close of A$61.02, putting the miner under selling pressure heading into the weekend.

This shift is crucial as Mineral Resources aims to convert rising lithium prices into cash while trimming debt from an intense investment spree. The market has shown little tolerance for signs of rising costs or shaky volumes, particularly in commodity-linked stocks.

Friday saw widespread declines. The S&P/ASX 200 slipped 0.65%, with materials tumbling 3.36% as metals prices pulled back. Lithium took an even bigger hit, dropping about 11% in Asian trading, according to Market Index. Liontown plunged 9.5%, while Ioneer plummeted 26.1%, the report said.

Mineral Resources reported its quarterly activity update through Dec. 31, revealing the average price for spodumene concentrate (SC6) climbed 29% from the previous quarter to US$1,094 per dry metric tonne. The company based this price on a CIF basis, covering shipping and insurance costs. It raised its FY26 lithium volume forecast to 260,000-280,000 dry metric tonnes at Wodgina, with an additional 190,000-210,000 expected at Mt Marion. Onslow Iron shipped 8.7 million wet metric tonnes during the quarter, and the firm reaffirmed a US$765 million agreement with POSCO. Cash liquidity exceeded A$1.4 billion, while net debt dropped to roughly A$4.9 billion.

Still, the stock didn’t offer a straightforward read. Upgraded guidance here mixes with straightforward de-risking and profit-taking, especially as the broader commodity sector slips.

Broker responses varied. Macquarie upgraded Mineral Resources to outperform, boosting its price target to A$70. RBC maintained its outperform rating and nudged the target up to A$67, according to Market Index. Jarden stuck with a sell rating but raised its target and warned about lithium cost pressures in the second half.

Risks remain front and center. On an analyst call, CFO Mark Wilson said the company is considering restarting the Bald Hill lithium mine but won’t rush into it. “It’s such a volatile commodity, we’re just going to be very prudent,” he noted. He also mentioned the company is reviewing the carrying value of assets previously owned by Resource Development Group ahead of the interim accounts. MarketScreener

On Monday, investors will be eyeing whether lithium prices stabilize following Friday’s steep drop and if the wider materials selloff continues. Updates on approvals and the timeline for the POSCO deal will remain critical, given its key role in deleveraging.

Mineral Resources runs the Wodgina and Mt Marion lithium mines in Western Australia and is developing Onslow Iron, a key export project. While its shares often move as a stand-in for lithium market sentiment, the company’s debt trajectory has gained equal attention.

The company’s half-year results are due Feb. 20, a key date for investors seeking fresh info on debt levels, cash flow, and any non-cash items noted in recent reports.

Shan Ahmed Khan is a senior markets reporter at TS2.tech, specializing in stocks, technology and macroeconomic trends. A graduate of the Lahore University of Management Sciences (LUMS), he previously worked in investment research and market analysis. His coverage helps readers understand the key developments influencing global financial markets and emerging industries.

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