New York, Jan 22, 2026, 10:15 EST — Regular session
- Moderna shares climb for a second straight day, boosted by optimism around its oncology catalyst
- Five-year data reveal a 49% reduction in melanoma recurrence or death risk with the Keytruda combination
- Attention shifts to the Phase 3 timeline and Moderna’s results call scheduled for Feb. 13
Moderna shares jumped 7.7% to $53.65 Thursday morning, building on a strong rally sparked by new long-term data for its experimental personalized cancer vaccine developed with Merck.
This move is crucial as Moderna works to prove to investors it can sustain a business past COVID vaccines. Even a mid-stage trial showing promise in oncology could quickly change the outlook.
Wall Street kicked off higher as President Donald Trump eased up on tariff threats against European nations. The Dow jumped 0.81%, while the S&P 500 gained 0.70% at the open. (Reuters)
Moderna and Merck announced Tuesday that their vaccine, intismeran autogene, combined with Merck’s Keytruda, reduced the risk of recurrence or death by 49% after five years in high-risk melanoma patients post-surgery. “If Moderna can replicate this 49% risk reduction in the larger phase 3 trial, that bodes well,” said Morningstar analyst Karen Andersen. UBS analyst Michael Yee cautioned that the durability still requires confirmation in late-stage testing. Jefferies analysts estimate pricing close to Keytruda’s roughly $200,000 and see the combo potentially hitting multi-billion-dollar peak sales in melanoma, with the American Cancer Society forecasting around 112,000 U.S. melanoma cases in 2026. (Reuters)
In a press release, the companies revealed that the phase 2b KEYNOTE-942 trial enrolled 157 patients and hit its primary goal: recurrence-free survival, measuring how long before cancer returns or a patient dies. They reported a hazard ratio of 0.510 compared to Keytruda alone and plan to share deeper analysis at an upcoming medical conference. “Today’s results highlight the potential of a prolonged benefit,” said Moderna oncology chief Kyle Holen. Merck’s Marjorie Green described the five-year follow-up as a “meaningful milestone” for patients at high risk of relapse after surgery. (Merck)
The stock surged 15.84% on Wednesday, closing at $49.81 and briefly hitting a 52-week high of $50. This boost came as the update sparked renewed buying interest in the biotech company. (Finviz)
That said, the rally hinges on mid-stage data and just one tumor type. Phase 3 trials tend to be larger and more unpredictable, so a disappointing outcome could seriously undermine the commercial outlook.
Investors are also grappling with a key hurdle: creating personalized vaccines requires time to design and produce for every patient. This slows down the rollout, even if effectiveness remains strong, and adds financial strain on payers when combined with costly immunotherapies.
Moderna plans to report its fourth-quarter and full-year results on Feb. 13. Investors will be watching for more precise guidance on cash burn and updates on the timing for phase 3 melanoma data. (Nasdaq)
