NEW YORK, Dec. 27, 2025, 8:12 p.m. ET — Market closed
Moderna, Inc. (NASDAQ: MRNA) stock heads into the weekend with investors parsing a mix of technical read-throughs, biotech-sector screens, and diverging Wall Street targets after a sharp pullback in the final stretch of the holiday week.
Shares of Moderna ended Friday’s regular session at $31.20, down 4.73% on the day, with the stock trading between $31.07 and $32.66. Extended-hours quotes Friday evening were modestly lower, with after-hours trading around $31.1 before markets went dark for the weekend. [1]
With U.S. equity markets closed Saturday and Sunday, the next actionable data point for traders will be Monday’s premarket tone—and whether Moderna can stabilize after a volatile week that included multiple outsized daily moves. [2]
Why Moderna stock moved into the close — and what’s (not) new in the last 48 hours
Friday’s decline came in a thin, post-Christmas trading environment, where individual names can swing more dramatically on modest flows. In a widely read “stock movers” roundup, Barron’s flagged Moderna among the notable decliners on the day. [3]
Notably, there was no major, fresh Moderna-specific press release or FDA headline dominating the tape over the last 24–48 hours, which helps explain why much of the commentary skewed toward technicals and positioning rather than new fundamental disclosures.
The latest Moderna headlines in the past 24–48 hours
1) Technical read-through: IBD flags improving relative strength
Investor’s Business Daily reported that Moderna’s Relative Strength (RS) Rating improved from 67 to 73 (as of Dec. 26), suggesting better trailing 52-week price performance versus the broader market—though the report also noted the shares still weren’t in an ideal “buy zone” based on its charting framework. [4]
2) Sector screen: MarketBeat lists Moderna among most-active biotech names
MarketBeat’s biotech screen for Dec. 27 highlighted Moderna as one of the sector’s top stocks by recent dollar trading volume, reflecting continued interest in the name despite choppy price action. [5]
3) A bearish take goes viral: “Forget Moderna”
A Motley Fool column published Saturday argued that, while Moderna has made progress on cost cuts and pipeline focus, it still carries execution risk tied to milestones such as reaching cash breakeven in 2028 and delivering multiple launches—pushing the author to favor another large-cap biotech instead. The piece also noted Moderna shares had gained more than 30% over the past month heading into Friday’s drop, underscoring how quickly sentiment has been shifting. [6]
4) Fundamental long-form: Seeking Alpha initiates “neutral/hold” with a $25 target
A Seeking Alpha analysis dated late Dec. 25 initiated coverage at neutral/hold with a $25 price target, framing Moderna as a mRNA-platform leader but emphasizing uncertainty around COVID demand/pricing and the execution path for respiratory launches and the broader pipeline. [7]
Where Moderna stock stands now: price levels and volatility snapshot
Going into Monday, traders are weighing Moderna’s position around the low-$30s after a wide-ranging week. Data providers show Moderna’s 52-week range roughly spanning the low-$20s to the high-$40s, putting current prices closer to the lower half of the annual band. [8]
From a purely technical-indicator standpoint, Investing.com’s dashboard labeled the daily signal “Strong Buy,” while also showing some momentum measures (including RSI and MACD) that can be interpreted as weak/oversold—illustrating how mixed short-term signals can be after a fast move down. [9]
Analyst forecasts: price targets vary widely (and why that matters)
Street outlook on Moderna remains split, and the spread in published targets is unusually wide:
- StockAnalysis shows a “Hold” consensus with an average price target around $33.25 and a range from $18 to $63, while listing recent actions by analysts including Matthew Harrison (Morgan Stanley), Andrew Tsai (Jefferies), Edward Tenthoff (Piper Sandler), Luca Issi (RBC Capital), and Mani Foroohar (Leerink Partners). [10]
- MarketBeat reports a “Reduce” consensus and an average target around $29.21, also summarizing a mix of ratings—from underperform calls (including a cited $17 target from Wolfe Research) to more constructive stances such as Piper Sandler’s overweight rating. [11]
For investors, that dispersion is a key takeaway: Moderna is still being priced as a catalyst-driven biotech in transition, not a steady, single-trajectory growth story. Targets can move sharply when the market gains (or loses) confidence around respiratory franchise execution, cost discipline, and pipeline timelines.
The fundamental backdrop: Moderna’s “post-pandemic” transition narrative
Much of the longer-term bull/bear debate traces back to a simple question: how reliably can Moderna replace pandemic-era windfall revenue with a broader, durable franchise across respiratory vaccines and therapeutics?
In a Nov. 20 Analyst Day press release filed with the SEC, Moderna outlined a three-year strategy and stated it is targeting up to 10% revenue growth in 2026, while continuing to reduce R&D investments and diversifying further into oncology. CEO Stéphane Bancel said the company expects to build a “large seasonal vaccine franchise,” and Moderna reiterated a path toward cash breakeven in 2028. [12]
The same filing laid out several pipeline and regulatory milestones investors are likely to revisit as 2026 begins, including:
- Plans to complete submissions for mRNA-1010 (seasonal influenza) in the U.S., EU, Canada, and Australia by January 2026 (per the company’s statement). [13]
- Updates on its flu/COVID combination strategy, including the status of mRNA-1083 filings and the company awaiting further U.S. FDA guidance on refiling. [14]
- Ongoing late-stage work on a norovirus vaccine program and expected interim analysis timing. [15]
Bird flu vaccine funding: a recent catalyst still shaping sentiment
While not a “last 48 hours” headline, a major late-December development still sits near the top of Moderna’s catalyst stack: CEPI’s plan to invest up to $54.3 million to support a pivotal Phase 3 trial for Moderna’s H5 pandemic influenza candidate mRNA-1018, with the trial expected to begin in early 2026. [16]
In CEPI’s announcement, CEO Dr. Richard Hatchett emphasized pandemic influenza as a major global health security threat and argued that mRNA speed and scalability could meaningfully shorten response time. Moderna CEO Stéphane Bancel said the company was “proud to have the support of CEPI” to advance its pandemic influenza candidate and positioned the work as part of broader preparedness efforts. [17]
Investors have treated this as a double-edged signal: it underscores Moderna’s relevance in pandemic preparedness, but it also highlights how dependent near-term excitement can be on big-ticket public-health programs and partnerships.
Risks investors are still weighing
Even with renewed attention to Moderna’s pipeline, recent setbacks remain part of the risk calculus. Reuters reported in October that Moderna ended development of its CMV vaccine (mRNA-1647) after a late-stage trial failed to hit the company’s efficacy goals. [18]
Moderna’s own Analyst Day filing also lists several discontinued programs, including the CMV development program, alongside other reprioritizations—reinforcing that portfolio decisions remain fluid as the company tightens focus. [19]
A key trading factor: high short interest can amplify Monday’s move
One structural feature that can magnify Moderna’s volatility—especially around headlines—is its elevated short positioning. MarketBeat reported that, as of Dec. 15, Moderna had short interest of roughly 69.7 million shares, about 20% of the public float, with ~6.9 days to cover based on average volume. [20]
High short interest doesn’t predict direction, but it can accelerate price moves when news breaks—up or down—because liquidity can get thin quickly as positions adjust.
What investors should know before the next session
With the market closed now, here’s the practical Monday setup for Moderna stock watchers:
- Expect “holiday-week” liquidity effects to linger
The last week of December often brings uneven volume. If Moderna gaps Monday—either direction—investors typically look for whether the move holds after the opening volatility rather than chasing the first print. - Watch $31 support behavior and nearby technical levels
Friday’s intraday low near the $31 area is an obvious reference point. Some trading dashboards publish pivot levels clustered around the low-$31 range—useful as a map for where buyers/sellers might show up early in the week. [21] - Keep an eye on the calendar: earnings and a January conference appearance
MarketBeat estimates Moderna’s next earnings report around Feb. 13, 2026 (before market open), while noting the company has not yet confirmed the date. [22]
Separately, Moderna is scheduled to appear at the 44th Annual J.P. Morgan Healthcare Conference on Jan. 12, 2026, with the company directing investors to its webcast in the “Events and Presentations” section. [23] - Headline sensitivity remains high
Between the CEPI-funded H5 trial planning for early 2026 and the broader respiratory franchise roadmap outlined at Analyst Day, Moderna remains the kind of stock where a single regulatory, clinical, or partnership headline can quickly reset near-term expectations. [24]
As Monday approaches, the central question for Moderna investors is whether the late-December dip is simply a year-end reset after a strong month—or the start of renewed skepticism about how quickly the company can convert its mRNA platform into consistent, multi-product growth.
References
1. stockanalysis.com, 2. www.investing.com, 3. www.barrons.com, 4. www.investors.com, 5. www.marketbeat.com, 6. www.fool.com, 7. seekingalpha.com, 8. www.investing.com, 9. www.investing.com, 10. stockanalysis.com, 11. www.marketbeat.com, 12. www.sec.gov, 13. www.sec.gov, 14. www.sec.gov, 15. www.sec.gov, 16. cepi.net, 17. cepi.net, 18. www.reuters.com, 19. www.sec.gov, 20. www.marketbeat.com, 21. www.investing.com, 22. www.marketbeat.com, 23. investors.modernatx.com, 24. cepi.net
