New York, February 6, 2026, 15:14 EST — Regular session
- Molina Healthcare (MOH) plunged nearly 27% to $129.77, dipping to $118 at its lowest point.
- The insurer’s 2026 adjusted EPS outlook came in at a minimum of $5.00—a figure that lands far short of consensus expectations.
- Management pointed to rising medical costs, along with an intentional reduction in its ACA Marketplace portfolio.
Molina Healthcare Inc dropped roughly 27% on Friday, battered by a 2026 profit forecast that missed Wall Street’s mark and plans to scale back a chunk of its Medicare Advantage drug segment.
Shares slid $47.07 to $129.77 by the afternoon, having earlier dipped as low as $118.
This warning carries weight given Molina’s focus on government-supported insurance — specifically, Medicaid and Affordable Care Act marketplace options. Investors usually expect stable demand there, but sudden jumps in usage can catch them off guard.
The situation throws the sector’s core issue back into sharp relief: rates get locked in ahead of time, but medical use can spike suddenly—so this gap has already triggered several forecast revisions for managed care.
Molina is projecting at least $5.00 a share in adjusted earnings for 2026, well below the $13.76 analysts had penciled in, per LSEG. The company pointed to a $1.50-per-share impact from rolling out a new Florida Medicaid contract, plus another $1.00 hit tied to a lagging Medicare Advantage Part D segment it’s preparing to exit by 2027. “2026 is a trough year” for Medicaid margins, CEO Joseph Zubretsky said. Bernstein’s Lance Wilkes described Molina as a “smaller-scale player” that could see “more significant revisions and misses.” 1
Molina reported a fourth-quarter adjusted loss of $2.75 per share in its SEC filing late Thursday. The company also disclosed a jump in its medical care ratio to 94.6%. That ratio tracks medical costs against premium revenue—higher numbers here tend to squeeze profit margins.
Molina is projecting roughly $42.2 billion in premium revenue for 2026, with total revenue pegged at $44.5 billion. The company’s medical care ratio should land at 92.6%. Marketplace membership numbers are expected to shrink, dropping to about 220,000 by the close of 2026—down sharply from 655,000 just a year earlier, following Molina’s decision to pull back in that segment. The insurer also plans to exit its traditional Medicare Advantage Part D (MAPD) business in 2027; that particular line currently generates around $1 billion in annual premiums. 2
Friday’s earnings call brought a blunt take from Zubretsky, who dismissed the 2025 medical cost trend as “an aberration.” CFO Mark Keim pointed out around $135 million in retroactive items linked to California Medicaid. Management directed investors to mark May 8 for their next shot at longer-term targets, set for discussion at investor day. 3
By midafternoon, the selloff had narrowed to individual names. Centene dropped roughly 6%. UnitedHealth, Cigna, Humana and Elevance, on the other hand, saw gains.
Investors are sizing up just how fast Molina can rework pricing and tamp down volatility in its Marketplace business—medical costs ran high this quarter—even as the company takes on implementation expenses linked to new Medicaid work.
The risk stands out: Should utilization remain high, or if state rate updates show up late, medical cost ratios might end up topping management’s projections for longer than planned. Plus, with the Marketplace getting smaller and the MAPD exit on the horizon, scale and fixed costs could come under more scrutiny.
Molina’s next big moment comes at its investor day on May 8. That’s when executives are set to spell out long-term goals—and the strategy backing them. Until then, traders are focused on a handful of things: early-2026 claims trends, Medicaid rate decisions, plus any new information about how the Florida contract is unfolding.
