MongoDB, Inc. (NASDAQ: MDB) has become one of the most closely watched software stocks this week after a powerful post‑earnings rally, a wave of Wall Street price-target hikes, and fresh valuation debates. As of the close on December 4, 2025, MongoDB stock is trading just under $400 per share, up roughly 70% year-to-date, near the top of its 52‑week range but easing slightly after Tuesday’s explosive move. [1]
This article rounds up today’s key news, analyst calls, and data-driven forecasts around MDB stock, and explains what they may mean for investors watching MongoDB into 2026 and 2027.
MongoDB stock today: price, performance and valuation snapshot
- Latest close (Dec 4, 2025): about $396–$397, down around 2% on the day after a strong two‑day surge. [2]
- 52‑week range:$140.78 low to $419.50 high, with the stock setting its latest intraday high of $419.50 on December 2 following earnings. [3]
- Market cap: roughly $32–33 billion. [4]
- YTD performance: around 70% total return in 2025, far ahead of the broader market and its software peers. [5]
On key valuation metrics:
- Price-to-sales (P/S): Around 14x sales, according to Simply Wall St’s latest deep-dive, versus an IT sector average near 2.5x and a high-growth peer group closer to 6–7x. [6]
- Technical and fundamentals snapshot: ChartMill assigns MongoDB a technical rating of 8/10 (top ~15% of all stocks by price performance) and a fundamental rating of 5/10, flagging excellent growth and balance-sheet strength but ongoing profitability concerns. [7]
In other words, MongoDB today is a classic “high‑expectations growth stock”: momentum is strong, but the bar for future execution is now very high.
Q3 fiscal 2026: earnings beat and raised guidance
MongoDB’s latest move started with its fiscal Q3 2026 earnings release (quarter ended October 31, 2025), published on December 1. The company delivered across the board beats and raised full‑year guidance. [8]
Headline results
From the company’s official earnings release and follow‑up coverage:
- Revenue:
- $628.3 million, up 19% year over year, versus Wall Street estimates around $593–594 million (~6% beat). [9]
- Atlas cloud platform:
- Revenue grew 30% YoY and represented about 75% of total Q3 revenue, underscoring MongoDB Atlas as the primary growth engine. [10]
- Profitability:
- Non‑GAAP EPS:$1.32, far above consensus around $0.79–$0.81 (roughly a 65–70% earnings beat). [11]
- Non‑GAAP operating income:$123.1 million, up from $101.5 million a year earlier, with margins near 20%. [12]
- GAAP results still show a small net loss (~$2 million), meaning MongoDB remains GAAP‑unprofitable even as adjusted earnings and cash flow turn sharply positive. [13]
- Free cash flow:
- $140.1 million, more than 4x the $34.6 million generated in the same quarter last year. [14]
MongoDB also added 2,600 customers in the quarter, bringing the total to over 62,500 customers worldwide as of October 31, 2025. [15]
Updated guidance
Management used the strong quarter to raise guidance for both Q4 and the full fiscal year 2026: [16]
- Q4 FY 2026 guidance (calendar Q4 2025 / early 2026):
- Revenue: $665–$670 million
- Non‑GAAP EPS: $1.44–$1.48
- Full‑year FY 2026 guidance:
- Revenue: $2.434–$2.439 billion
- Non‑GAAP EPS: $4.76–$4.80
These ranges are notably above the company’s prior outlook and above analyst consensus heading into the report, a key driver behind the post‑earnings share price reaction.
Strategic and product updates
The earnings release also highlighted several strategic milestones that underpin the long‑term MongoDB investment story: [17]
- Leadership change: Chirantan “CJ” Desai has been appointed President and CEO, succeeding Dev Ittycheria after his 11‑year tenure.
- AI & database leadership: MongoDB was named a Leader for the 4th consecutive year in the 2025 Gartner Magic Quadrant for Cloud Database Management Systems, reinforcing its position in modern, cloud‑native and AI‑driven workloads.
- Vector search expansion: MongoDB announced preview availability of search and vector search capabilities in Community Edition and Enterprise Server, extending previously Atlas‑only AI tooling to self‑managed and on‑premises deployments.
- Microsoft partnership: The company was named 2025 Microsoft U.S. Partner of the Year and rolled out new AI, security, and governance integrations on Azure.
These updates are central to the bullish case that MongoDB will be a core data foundation for AI applications across clouds and deployment models.
Price action this week: from earnings spike to mild pullback
MongoDB stock’s trading over the last few sessions has been dramatic even by growth‑stock standards:
- On December 2, MDB shares jumped about 22% and touched an intraday high of $419.50, a new 52‑week high, as investors digested the earnings beat and raised outlook. [18]
- As of December 4, the stock has cooled slightly, closing around $396–$397, still well above pre‑earnings levels near $330. [19]
MarketBeat notes that MongoDB is now up more than 70% year-to-date, after being down for much of 2025 before two consecutive “blowout” earnings reports turned sentiment around. [20]
Technical services such as ChartMill still rate MDB as a strong momentum name (technical rating 8/10) that has outperformed more than 86% of the market over the last year. [21]
What Wall Street is saying today
A wave of analyst activity has followed the Q3 numbers, and December 4 brought yet another high‑profile upgrade.
Major price-target hikes (Dec 2–4)
According to GuruFocus and Benzinga‑sourced data, the past three days have seen a cluster of aggressive target increases: [22]
- Argus Research (Dec 4):
- Rating: Buy (maintained)
- Price target: raised from $340 to $488 (+43.5%)
- Citigroup (Dec 3):
- Rating: Buy / Strong Buy
- Price target: raised from $440 to $525, implying nearly 30% upside from the price at the time of the note. [23]
- Goldman Sachs (Dec 3):
- Rating: Buy / Strong Buy
- Target: $475, up from $405
- Piper Sandler (Dec 2):
- Rating: Overweight
- Target: $490, up from $400
- Needham (Dec 2):
- Rating: Buy
- Target: $480, up from $365
- Rosenblatt (Dec 2):
- Rating: Buy
- Target: $425, up from $385
- Baird (Dec 2):
- Rating: Outperform
- Target: $500, according to Fintel/Nasdaq coverage. [24]
This cluster of upward revisions is a strong signal that, at least in the near term, many analysts believe MongoDB’s fundamentals justify a higher value than the pre‑earnings trading range.
Consensus ratings and targets
Different data providers now show slightly different pictures of MDB’s 12‑month upside:
- StockAnalysis.com:
- 38 analysts cover MongoDB.
- Consensus rating:“Strong Buy”.
- Average price target:$413.21, implying around 4.3% upside from today’s price.
- Target range: $190 (low) to $525 (high). [25]
- GuruFocus (using Refinitiv/Morningstar data):
- Average target:$431.91, implying about 6.8% upside from a reference price around $404.
- Target range: $250–$525.
- Average brokerage recommendation: 1.9 on a 1–5 scale (1 = Strong Buy), broadly equivalent to “Outperform”. [26]
- MarketBeat:
- Ratings breakdown: 1 Strong Buy, 29 Buy, 9 Hold, 1 Sell.
- Consensus: “Moderate Buy” with an average target around $412–$414. [27]
- Zacks Investment Research:
- Assigns MongoDB a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) following the Q3 surprise, citing the revenue and EPS beats plus positive estimate revisions. [28]
Despite some variations across providers, the common thread is clear: Wall Street’s stance on MDB is broadly bullish, but the implied upside from current levels is now more modest than the recent rally might suggest.
Fresh analysis pieces on December 4, 2025
Several in‑depth pieces published today highlight the split between growth optimism and valuation anxiety.
Motley Fool / Nasdaq: “Has MongoDB run too far?”
A widely read column syndicated on Nasdaq under the title “MongoDB Stock Has Soared This Year. Is It Too Late to Buy?” points out: [29]
- MDB is up more than 70% in 2025, with a big chunk of that driven by the latest earnings pop.
- The business momentum is real: revenue up 19%, Atlas revenue up 30%, and free cash flow surging.
- However, the stock trades around 12x sales (the columnist’s figure at time of writing), and MongoDB remains unprofitable on a GAAP basis with free cash flow still modest relative to its market cap in the low‑$30‑billion range.
- The author argues that, given fierce competition from large cloud providers (Amazon, Microsoft, Snowflake and others) and the high valuation, the risk‑reward is no longer compelling for new buyers at current levels.
The takeaway from this camp: great business, stretched valuation.
Simply Wall St: DCF suggests the stock is ~75% overvalued
Simply Wall St published a detailed valuation note today titled “Assessing MongoDB After Its 65.9% 2025 Surge and Rich Growth Multiple.” [30]
Key findings from their model:
- Using a two‑stage free cash flow to equity DCF, starting from trailing 12‑month FCF of about $360 million and projecting growth into 2030, the platform estimates a fair value near $231.80 per share.
- Compared with the current share price, that implies MongoDB is roughly 75% overvalued, leading to a clear “overvalued” flag in their framework.
- On a price-to-sales basis, they estimate MongoDB trades around 14.26x sales, more than double the broader IT sector and well above a curated peer group near 6.8x.
- Their “Fair Ratio” framework suggests a P/S closer to 10.4x would be justified by the growth outlook, profitability, and risk profile — still high, but notably below today’s multiple.
While valuations are inherently assumption‑driven, the Simply Wall St analysis underscores the extent to which future growth is already priced in.
MarketBeat: strong execution, but “lofty expectations”
MarketBeat’s deep‑dive article “MongoDB Just Posted a Blowout Quarter—But Is It Too Hot to Touch?” frames the debate this way: [31]
- MDB has staged a dramatic turnaround in the second half of 2025: from around $214 in late August (down year‑to‑date at that point) to around $402–$400 today, up over 70% YTD.
- Two consecutive “crushed expectations” quarters, including Q3 FY 2026, have reset earnings expectations higher and bolstered confidence in the AI‑and‑cloud thesis.
- MarketBeat’s updated post‑earnings analyst subset shows:
- An average price target around $443 among the most recent revisions, implying ~10% upside.
- A high updated target of $500 (from Baird) and a low updated target of $310 (from Mizuho), illustrating how opinions diverge on valuation.
- The article concludes that while MDB could continue to run on momentum and strong execution, the stock now “bakes in many years of extensive growth”, leaving little room for error.
Earnings quality and key metrics: deeper look
Zacks’ key‑metrics breakdown, along with StockStory and Barchart earnings coverage, add more detail beneath the headline numbers: [32]
- Revenue mix:
- Subscription revenue: $609.1 million, up about 19% YoY.
- Services revenue: $19.2 million, up around 12% YoY.
- Atlas‑related subscription revenue: ~$470 million, up nearly 30% YoY, continuing to gain mix within subscriptions.
- Customer metrics:
- Atlas customers reached approximately 60,800, ahead of the three‑analyst estimate of ~59,900. [33]
- Margin trends:
- GAAP gross margin slipped slightly to 71% (from 74%), but non‑GAAP gross margin remained robust at 74%.
- Non‑GAAP operating margin improved meaningfully, with operating income up and free cash flow conversion above 100% for the quarter. [34]
- Momentum in estimates:
- Zacks notes a strong positive earnings surprise (+67% vs EPS consensus) and assigns MongoDB its top Rank #1 (Strong Buy) as estimates for future periods move higher. [35]
From a growth‑investor perspective, this combination — double‑digit revenue growth, accelerating cloud mix, rising margins and robust FCF — is exactly what justifies premium multiples. The open question is how high that premium can reasonably go.
Technical strength and institutional interest
Two other data points out today speak to technical strength and institutional sponsorship:
- IBD ratings: Investor’s Business Daily reports MongoDB’s Composite Rating has been upgraded from 94 to 96, placing it among the top ~4% of stocks on combined fundamental and technical criteria. Its EPS Rating is 94, and the stock recently broke out above a $344.85 flat‑base buy point, though IBD now considers it extended beyond ideal buy range. [36]
- Ownership and insider activity:
- MarketBeat notes that institutional investors own roughly 89% of the float, highlighting strong professional interest. [37]
- There has been notable insider selling in recent months (e.g., director‑level share sales), which is common in high‑growth tech but still worth tracking for sentiment shifts. [38]
ChartMill’s analytics likewise show MongoDB beating most peers on 1‑year performance and assign a mid‑range fundamental score (5/10), reflecting growth and balance sheet strength offset by valuation and profitability concerns. [39]
MDB stock forecast: 2026–2027 revenue and EPS projections
Beyond 12‑month price targets, several platforms aggregate longer‑term earnings and revenue forecasts for MongoDB based on analyst estimates.
According to StockAnalysis (using Finnhub data): [40]
- Revenue:
- FY 2025 (ended Jan 31, 2025): $2.01 billion (actual)
- FY 2026 forecast: $2.38 billion (~18.8% growth)
- FY 2027 forecast: $2.79 billion (~17.0% additional growth)
- EPS (likely non‑GAAP for forward years):
- FY 2025: ‑$1.73
- FY 2026 forecast: $3.75
- FY 2027 forecast: $4.35 (about 16% growth vs FY 2026)
On these projections, MongoDB would transition decisively into profitability as early as FY 2026, while still growing revenue at a high‑teens pace.
That revenue/EPS path underpins rich valuation metrics:
- Forward P/E ratios above 90x, using FY 2027 consensus EPS and today’s price, according to both StockAnalysis and ChartMill. [41]
Whether that multiple is sustainable depends on whether MongoDB can:
- Maintain high‑teens to 20%+ revenue growth for several more years;
- Continue expanding margins through scale and efficient cloud infrastructure;
- Defend its position against major competitors moving aggressively into database‑as‑a‑service and AI‑native data platforms.
Bull vs bear view: how the market is reading MongoDB now
Putting today’s news, forecasts and analyses together, the bull case and bear case are sharpening.
Bullish narrative
Supporters of MDB stock point to: [42]
- Consistent growth: Revenue up ~19% in Q3 with guidance pointing to ~20%+ growth into FY 2026.
- Atlas momentum: 30% growth in the cloud platform that now makes up three‑quarters of revenue.
- Improving unit economics: Surging free cash flow and expanding non‑GAAP margins.
- AI and cloud tailwinds: MongoDB’s vector search capabilities, AI‑ready architecture and deepening Microsoft Azure partnership position it as a core infrastructure play for AI applications.
- Analyst support: A wall of upward price‑target revisions and consensus Strong Buy/Moderate Buy ratings across most brokerages.
In this view, MongoDB is evolving from a “story stock” to a durable, cash‑generating platform business, and premium multiples are warranted.
Bearish and cautious narrative
Skeptics and valuation‑focused analysts flag several concerns: [43]
- Valuation stretch:
- P/S in the mid‑teens and forward P/E north of 90x leave little margin for error.
- DCF and fair‑value models (e.g., Simply Wall St) suggest the current price may be 50–75% above conservative fair‑value estimates.
- Competitive intensity:
- Major cloud providers (AWS, Azure, Google Cloud) and data platforms like Snowflake offer overlapping functionality. Any slowdown in Atlas adoption or cloud database migration could compress growth faster than expected.
- GAAP profitability and cyclicality:
- MongoDB has only recently approached sustained profitability; a macro slowdown or slower IT spending cycle could squeeze margins just as the market is pricing in years of clean execution.
- Crowded trade risk:
- With MDB now heavily owned by institutions and widely recognized as an “AI‑adjacent” winner, sentiment reversals can be sharp if quarterly numbers disappoint.
In short, the long‑term thesis is strong but already heavily capitalized into the share price.
Key risks and what to watch next
For anyone tracking MongoDB stock into 2026–2027, today’s batch of analysis surfaces a few practical checkpoints:
- Can Atlas growth stay near 25–30%?
Sustained high‑20s growth in Atlas is arguably the single most important driver for the premium multiple. A slide into the mid‑teens would likely trigger target resets. [44] - Margin trajectory and free cash flow:
Investors will watch whether free cash flow can continue to grow faster than revenue and whether non‑GAAP operating margins hold or expand from the current ~20% range. [45] - Competitive announcements in AI databases:
New features or pricing moves from hyperscale clouds and data platforms could pressure MongoDB’s pricing power or win‑rate in key enterprise deals. - Leadership transition execution:
The hand‑off from long‑time CEO Dev Ittycheria to CJ Desai appears to be starting on solid footing, but leadership transitions in high‑growth tech are always a medium‑term risk factor. [46] - Macro and rates:
High‑multiple software names remain sensitive to changes in rate expectations. A shift in the interest‑rate outlook could compress multiples even if MongoDB continues to deliver good operational results.
Bottom line: MDB is a high‑quality growth story priced for perfection
As of December 4, 2025, MongoDB sits at the intersection of excellent execution and elevated expectations:
- The underlying business is performing strongly, with cloud database adoption, AI‑ready capabilities, free‑cash‑flow expansion and a raised outlook all supporting the long‑term thesis.
- Wall Street is broadly constructive, with multiple firms lifting targets into the $475–$525 zone and consensus 12‑month targets clustering in the $410–$430 range. [47]
- At the same time, valuation‑focused analyses highlight that today’s price bakes in years of high‑teens growth and rising margins — leaving MDB as a momentum‑rich but valuation‑sensitive stock.
For traders and investors watching MongoDB, the key theme emerging from today’s commentary is clear: the story is working, but the room for disappointment is shrinking. Future quarters will need to keep meeting — and likely beating — elevated expectations for MDB’s current price to be sustainable.
Disclaimer: This article is for informational and news purposes only and does not constitute financial advice, investment recommendation, or an offer to buy or sell any securities. Always do your own research or consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.
References
1. www.financecharts.com, 2. stockanalysis.com, 3. stockanalysis.com, 4. www.chartmill.com, 5. www.financecharts.com, 6. simplywall.st, 7. www.chartmill.com, 8. www.prnewswire.com, 9. www.prnewswire.com, 10. www.prnewswire.com, 11. www.prnewswire.com, 12. www.prnewswire.com, 13. www.prnewswire.com, 14. www.prnewswire.com, 15. www.prnewswire.com, 16. www.prnewswire.com, 17. www.prnewswire.com, 18. stockanalysis.com, 19. stockanalysis.com, 20. www.marketbeat.com, 21. www.chartmill.com, 22. www.gurufocus.com, 23. www.marketbeat.com, 24. www.nasdaq.com, 25. stockanalysis.com, 26. www.gurufocus.com, 27. www.marketbeat.com, 28. www.nasdaq.com, 29. www.nasdaq.com, 30. simplywall.st, 31. www.marketbeat.com, 32. www.nasdaq.com, 33. www.nasdaq.com, 34. www.prnewswire.com, 35. www.nasdaq.com, 36. www.investors.com, 37. www.marketbeat.com, 38. www.marketbeat.com, 39. www.chartmill.com, 40. stockanalysis.com, 41. stockanalysis.com, 42. www.prnewswire.com, 43. www.nasdaq.com, 44. www.prnewswire.com, 45. www.prnewswire.com, 46. www.prnewswire.com, 47. www.gurufocus.com
