Monolithic Power Systems, Inc. (NASDAQ: MPWR) is heading into the Monday, December 22, 2025 U.S. market open with a rare combination of catalysts that can move a stock even when there’s no earnings report on the calendar: a major index inclusion event, fresh analyst target changes, and a newly declared quarterly dividend.
Below is a detailed, publication-ready rundown of the latest news, forecasts, and analyses that matter most for MPWR before the opening bell—plus the key risks investors should keep on the radar.
The headline: MPWR joins the Nasdaq-100 effective before Monday’s open
The biggest near-term driver is mechanical, not fundamental: Monolithic Power Systems is being added to the Nasdaq-100 Index effective prior to market open on Monday, Dec. 22, 2025, as part of Nasdaq’s annual reconstitution. [1]
Why that matters:
- The Nasdaq-100 underpins 200+ tracking products with more than $600 billion in assets under management, including major index trackers like Invesco QQQ. [2]
- When a stock is added, index funds and ETFs that track the benchmark must rebalance—which can create one-time buying pressure, unusual closing-auction activity, and short-term volatility.
- Nasdaq commentary around this year’s reconstitution notes that industry experts estimate roughly $50 billion of trading linked to the Nasdaq-100 reconstitution event. [3]
What traders watch on inclusion days: the opening print, volume vs. average, and the closing auction—because a lot of passive rebalancing demand tends to express itself there.
Where MPWR stock stands heading into the week
As of the last available quote from late Dec. 19 trading, MPWR was around $937 per share, up about 0.8% on the day, with a market cap near $44B.
Other useful context going into Monday:
- 52-week range: roughly $438.86 to $1,123.38, putting the stock well off its lows and still below the peak reached earlier in 2025. [4]
- Year-to-date performance has been strong—data providers commonly show MPWR up around ~60% YTD (ballpark varies by source and cut-off date). [5]
Why the setup matters: Index additions often happen after a big run. That can create a tug-of-war between passive inflows (supportive) and “sell-the-news” profit taking (a common pattern around widely telegraphed events).
What Monolithic Power Systems does (and why AI data centers are central to the bull case)
Monolithic Power Systems is a fabless power electronics and power-management semiconductor company, supplying power solutions across enterprise data, storage/computing, automotive, communications, consumer, and industrial end markets. [6]
The investment narrative in late 2025 increasingly centers on AI infrastructure:
- Reuters reported that the AI buildout is driving demand for hardware used in advanced data centers and noted that MPWR counts Nvidia among its customers. [7]
- In MPWR’s Q3 update, Reuters also highlighted that the company’s enterprise data segment grew sharply sequentially, driven by higher sales of power-management solutions for AI applications. [8]
Separately, the macro backdrop for power management in AI infrastructure continues to strengthen. A December 2025 report summary cited by ITPro (attributed to Goldman Sachs Research) projects that AI’s share of the overall data center market could double to ~30% over the next two years, and that overall data center power consumption could jump 175% by 2030 vs. 2023 levels. [9]
For a company selling “the picks and shovels” of power delivery and efficiency, these kinds of projections help explain why analysts keep framing MPWR as an AI-adjacent beneficiary rather than a plain-vanilla analog chip story.
The latest earnings snapshot: strong results, strong guidance (but watch how you value it)
The most recent major fundamentals update was MPWR’s third-quarter 2025 report and fourth-quarter outlook:
- Reuters reported MPWR guided Q4 revenue to $730M–$750M, above the analyst average estimate cited by Reuters (~$725M). [10]
- Reuters also reported Q3 revenue of $737.2M, and adjusted EPS of $4.73. [11]
- Company materials for Q3 show GAAP net income of $178.3M ($3.71 diluted EPS) and non-GAAP net income of $227.1M ($4.73 diluted EPS). [12]
If you step back one quarter further:
- MPWR reported record Q2 2025 revenue of $664.6M, up 31% year-over-year, along with non-GAAP EPS of $4.21. [13]
The key nuance for investors: MPWR can look “cheap” or “expensive” depending on which earnings definition you use.
- Some widely used quote pages show a trailing P/E around ~24 with TTM EPS around ~$39. [14]
- But GuruFocus also shows an alternate lens: “EPS without NRI” (excluding non-recurring items) of about $15.98 and a much higher “P/E without NRI” around ~59. [15]
That valuation spread is not academic—it affects how investors interpret MPWR’s multiple versus other semiconductor names.
Analyst forecasts: price targets move higher into the Nasdaq-100 event
A cluster of analyst-related headlines landed right into the Nasdaq-100 inclusion window:
- Investing.com reported Truist raised its price target to $1,375 from $1,163 and reiterated a Buy rating, describing MPWR as an attractive AI-infrastructure “derivative” play and pointing to an AI data-center opportunity it sizes at $4B+. [16]
- A Nasdaq-hosted write-up (via Fintel) summarized broader Street expectations as of Dec. 6, 2025, citing an average one-year price target around $1,204.94, with forecasts ranging from about $934.70 to $1,365.00. [17]
- MarketBeat also echoed the $1,375 Truist target and listed several other target moves from fall 2025 (e.g., $1,250-area targets by multiple firms), while showing its own compiled consensus target. [18]
How to read this into Monday: price target upgrades often help reinforce sentiment into an event, but they don’t remove the possibility of short-term volatility—especially when a stock has already rallied hard into year-end.
Dividend news: $1.56 declared, ex-dividend date is coming fast
MPWR also declared its fourth-quarter dividend:
- The company announced a $1.56 per share quarterly dividend, payable Jan. 15, 2026, to shareholders of record as of Dec. 31, 2025. [19]
- Dividend tracking pages show MPWR has paid $1.56 per share quarterly throughout 2025, up from $1.25 quarterly in 2024 (illustrating a step-up in the annual run-rate). [20]
With MPWR trading near $900–$1,000, the yield is modest (commonly quoted around ~0.6%–0.7%), but the dividend can matter to certain mandates and can become another calendar item for short-term traders as the Dec. 31 ex-dividend date approaches. [21]
Insider trading and positioning: what’s actually in the filings
Into year-end, investors also tend to scan Form 4 activity. Recent filings and summaries include:
- A director sale of 100 shares at about $896.97 (Nov. 25, 2025). [22]
- A CEO gift transfer of 12,337 shares (reported as a gift to a 501(c)(3) foundation) tied to a Dec. 9 transaction date. [23]
- Insider-transaction summaries also list sales by executives (e.g., CFO activity) around early December. [24]
Interpretation: With a $40B+ market cap, small sales and charitable gifts don’t automatically signal a bearish view—especially late in the year when tax and planning considerations can dominate. Still, for a high-multiple semiconductor, the market often reacts more to clusters of selling than to any single filing.
Key risks and watch-items before the bell
Even with a bullish AI narrative and index inclusion tailwinds, MPWR has risks that can matter quickly:
1) Index inclusion can amplify volatility, not just demand
Passive buying can be real, but so can short-term profit-taking and event-driven flows. Nasdaq itself emphasizes that annual reconstitution timing is tied to the December cycle of derivatives expiration (“quadruple witching”), a period that can already be noisy for liquidity and positioning. [25]
2) AI data-center demand is strong—but not linear
The same Goldman-referenced analysis that expects strong growth also outlines scenarios where demand softens—e.g., a case where AI demand drops materially later in the decade, potentially reducing occupancy and pricing power for data-center operators. A slower build cycle would likely ripple into component suppliers. [26]
3) Customer concentration sensitivity
Reuters’ mention of Nvidia as a customer is a reminder that AI infrastructure supply chains can be concentrated. Any shift in GPU platforms, power architecture, qualification cycles, or hyperscaler capex priorities can quickly change sentiment around suppliers. [27]
4) Litigation overhang (historical class period)
Multiple law-firm case pages describe a securities class action tied to an alleged misstatement period from Feb. 8, 2024 through Nov. 8, 2024, including a stated lead plaintiff deadline of April 7, 2025. Allegations are just that—allegations—but litigation risk can weigh on multiples and headlines. [28]
5) Valuation debate: “headline P/E” vs “adjusted earnings”
As noted above, some providers show MPWR with a mid-20s trailing P/E, while others highlight a much higher effective multiple when excluding certain items. This can change how investors compare MPWR to analog and power peers. [29]
What to watch on Monday, Dec. 22 (and the next dates after that)
If you’re tracking MPWR into the opening bell, these are the practical “next steps” items many investors follow:
- Pre-market indications and opening volume: Is there evidence of forced index buying at the open?
- Intraday liquidity + closing auction: Index rebalances often express in end-of-day prints, especially when large funds execute benchmark changes.
- Price behavior vs. peers: Watch how MPWR trades relative to other AI-levered semis and power/analog peers (a quick read on whether the move is “event-only” or “sector-wide”).
Near-term calendar items after Monday:
- Dec. 31, 2025: record/ex-dividend timing for the $1.56 quarterly dividend. [30]
- Jan. 15, 2026: dividend payment date. [31]
- Early February 2026: many market calendars estimate the next earnings window around that period (company confirmation may come later). [32]
Bottom line for MPWR stock before the Dec. 22 open
MPWR is entering Monday with event-driven momentum (Nasdaq-100 inclusion) layered on top of fundamental strength tied to AI data-center power demand and supportive Wall Street targets. [33]
But investors should treat the session as potentially flow-dominated. Index additions can create powerful one-day or one-week technical moves—sometimes supportive, sometimes whipsawing—especially during a holiday-thinned tape. Meanwhile, longer-term holders will likely stay focused on the same core questions that have defined MPWR in 2025: AI capex durability, enterprise data momentum, and how much of the growth is already reflected in valuation. [34]
References
1. www.nasdaq.com, 2. www.nasdaq.com, 3. www.nasdaq.com, 4. stockanalysis.com, 5. stockanalysis.com, 6. www.reuters.com, 7. www.reuters.com, 8. www.reuters.com, 9. www.itpro.com, 10. www.reuters.com, 11. www.reuters.com, 12. www.monolithicpower.com, 13. www.globenewswire.com, 14. finance.yahoo.com, 15. www.gurufocus.com, 16. www.investing.com, 17. www.nasdaq.com, 18. www.marketbeat.com, 19. www.globenewswire.com, 20. stockanalysis.com, 21. finance.yahoo.com, 22. www.stocktitan.net, 23. www.stocktitan.net, 24. finance.yahoo.com, 25. www.nasdaq.com, 26. www.itpro.com, 27. www.reuters.com, 28. www.ktmc.com, 29. stockanalysis.com, 30. www.globenewswire.com, 31. www.globenewswire.com, 32. marketchameleon.com, 33. www.nasdaq.com, 34. www.itpro.com
