Morgan Stanley stock capped a strong Christmas Eve session with a solid gain and a finish just shy of its recent 52‑week high — but the bigger story for investors heading into the next trading day is the holiday calendar, thin liquidity, and a growing set of 2026 macro crosscurrents that could matter for big banks and capital-markets firms.
In the holiday-shortened session on Wednesday, Dec. 24, 2025, Morgan Stanley (NYSE: MS) rose about 1.2% to $181.65, outperforming several major financial peers in a broadly positive market. [1]
First: “Tomorrow” is Christmas Day — U.S. markets are closed
If you’re preparing for “tomorrow’s open,” it’s worth stating clearly:
- U.S. stock markets are closed on Thursday, Dec. 25, 2025 (Christmas Day).
- The next regular U.S. stock market session is Friday, Dec. 26, 2025, reopening for a full day after the holiday. [2]
- Dec. 24, 2025 was an early-close day, with NYSE markets closing early at 1:00 p.m. ET (and NYSE late trading sessions closing at 5:00 p.m. ET). [3]
That calendar dynamic matters because price moves during thin holiday trading (and especially in extended hours) can be less reliable than the same moves on a normal-volume day.
Morgan Stanley stock: what happened after the bell on Dec. 24
Here’s the clean read on MS into the close and immediately after:
- Close (Dec. 24): $181.65, +1.20% on the day [4]
- Intraday range: roughly $179.57 to $181.98
- Volume: about 2.6 million shares, well below its recent average (MarketWatch cited a 50‑day average near 5.9 million). [5]
- After-hours indication: Investing.com showed MS around $181.53 in after-hours trading (a small dip of about 0.07% from the last price). [6]
- Context: The finish left MS very close to a recent 52‑week high near ~$182. [7]
Bottom line: The “after the bell” read is that MS held up near the highs, and any modest after-hours drift looks more like holiday liquidity noise than a decisive sentiment shift.
Why Morgan Stanley (and bank stocks broadly) looked strong on Christmas Eve
Morgan Stanley’s move didn’t happen in a vacuum. Several “today” narratives helped support financials:
1) A record-setting tape, even with very light volume
U.S. equities finished higher again on a holiday-shortened day, with the S&P 500 and Dow at record closes, and trading volume described as extremely light (roughly a third of a typical day on the NYSE). [8]
Thin volume is a double-edged sword: it can reduce selling pressure, but it can also exaggerate moves—especially around year-end positioning.
2) The “big bank trade” remains one of 2025’s defining themes
A major theme in 2025 has been outperformance in U.S. banks, fueled by expectations of a more favorable regulatory backdrop and a rebound in investment banking activity. Financial Times reported that America’s six largest banks — including Morgan Stanley — have collectively added about $600 billion in market value in 2025, helped by a deregulatory push and stronger dealmaking/trading conditions. [9]
For Morgan Stanley specifically, that macro tailwind tends to show up in:
- stronger investment banking fees when M&A and IPO markets improve,
- better trading revenue when client activity rises,
- higher wealth management and asset-management fees when markets climb.
3) 2026 expectations are increasingly driving late‑year positioning
A Reuters analysis published Dec. 24 highlighted how 2026 optimism is being built around AI-related spending, strong corporate earnings, and the path for Fed rate cuts, while also noting meaningful wildcards such as policy uncertainty and tariffs. [10]
That matters for Morgan Stanley because “risk-on” expectations tend to support:
- capital markets volumes (issuance, underwriting),
- wealth inflows and client assets,
- trading activity tied to equity and credit markets.
Today’s Morgan Stanley-specific headlines and analysis to know
Not every market day comes with company-specific news, and Dec. 24 was more about price action + macro than a fresh Morgan Stanley corporate announcement. Still, several “today” items shaped the narrative investors are discussing around MS:
Morgan Stanley’s stock outperformed peers in the session
MarketWatch noted MS beat several competitors on the day (including JPMorgan and Wells Fargo), as the overall market rose. [11]
Tariffs and inflation are back in the conversation
A Business Insider report (via syndication) cited Morgan Stanley’s view that tariff-driven inflation could pressure companies and consumers in different ways heading into 2026. [12]
Separately, Barron’s also published a Dec. 24 inflation-focused piece warning inflation could re-accelerate in early 2026 amid tariffs and fiscal factors. [13]
Why this matters for MS: inflation and tariff-driven uncertainty can move rates, credit spreads, and risk appetite — all of which influence Morgan Stanley’s capital markets activity and wealth results.
Forecasts and forward look: what’s next for Morgan Stanley stock
Even on a quiet day, investors are rarely trading “just the chart.” The next major fundamental catalyst for MS is already on the calendar:
Morgan Stanley earnings date: Jan. 15, 2026
Morgan Stanley has scheduled its Fourth Quarter and Full-Year 2025 results for Thursday, Jan. 15, 2026, with results expected around 7:30 a.m. ET and a conference call at 8:30 a.m. ET. [14]
Street expectations going into earnings
A Zacks/Finviz market note published Dec. 24 said MS is expected to post approximately:
- EPS: $2.32 (about 4.5% growth year over year)
- Revenue: $17.16B (about 5.79% growth year over year) [15]
Treat those as consensus-style estimates rather than company guidance — but they’re useful benchmarks for what the market is pricing in.
Analyst targets: the stock is already above many averages
Investing.com’s compiled analyst snapshot showed:
- Average 12‑month price target: about $172.62
- High / low estimates:$202 / $140
- Overall rating: “Buy,” with most analysts on the positive side [16]
MarketBeat’s compilation (18 analyst ratings) put the average price target around $174.77 and labeled the consensus as “Moderate Buy.” [17]
What this means for tomorrow (or, more accurately, Friday’s open): with MS closing around $181–$182, the stock is trading above some consensus average targets, which can raise the bar for the next earnings update.
What to watch before the next open (Friday, Dec. 26)
Here are the key things that can realistically move Morgan Stanley stock when markets reopen:
1) Holiday liquidity (and why it can mislead)
Christmas week trading is famously thin. AP emphasized that Christmas Eve volume was extremely light and warned volumes may remain light into Friday. [18]
That’s important because:
- spreads can widen,
- single prints can look dramatic,
- momentum signals can be less trustworthy than usual.
2) Rates and the Fed: the next macro catalyst is already scheduled
The Federal Reserve’s posted calendar shows the next FOMC meeting is Jan. 27–28, 2026. [19]
Banks and brokers tend to react quickly to shifts in:
- Treasury yields,
- rate-cut expectations,
- the yield curve’s shape.
3) “Santa Claus rally” narratives (helpful context, not a trading plan)
A MarketWatch analysis published Dec. 24 noted that Dec. 26 has historically been among the most consistently positive days for the S&P 500, based on Bespoke’s work, and framed it within the “Santa Claus rally” period. [20]
Seasonality doesn’t guarantee anything, but it can influence short-term positioning and headlines — and bank stocks often move with the broader tape.
4) Watch the 2026 playbook: earnings growth, AI spending, and policy uncertainty
Reuters’ Dec. 24 market outlook piece made the case that sustaining 2025’s rally into 2026 hinges on earnings strength, AI momentum, and a dovish Fed, while flagging uncertainties like tariffs and geopolitical dynamics. [21]
For Morgan Stanley, the read-through is simple: a healthy risk backdrop typically supports capital markets revenues.
5) Deal-making and IPO pipeline optimism is a direct MS lever
Earlier in December, Reuters quoted Morgan Stanley’s investment banking leadership saying the firm sees a strong pipeline for M&A, IPOs, and broader deal activity, helped by a supportive macro and regulatory environment. [22]
That’s one of the most important medium-term drivers for MS’s Institutional Securities segment.
6) Capital return remains a structural support
Morgan Stanley’s board previously authorized a $20 billion multi-year share repurchase program and increased its quarterly common dividend to $1.00/share (starting with expected declarations in Q3 2025). [23]
Investors often treat that combination — dividend + buybacks — as a “floor” factor, particularly in large-cap financials.
7) Key levels investors are watching
While fundamentals drive long-term value, traders will focus on:
- the recent ~$182 zone (near the 52‑week high area), [24]
- whether MS holds its post‑rally support zones going into January earnings.
The overnight takeaway
Morgan Stanley stock ended Christmas Eve near the highs after a holiday-shortened session, with only modest after-hours movement. [25] The next real test comes not on Dec. 25 (markets are closed), but when traders return on Friday, Dec. 26 — likely still in thin, year-end conditions. [26]
The “big picture” setup into that reopen is straightforward:
- Bullish tailwinds: strong equity tape, improving deal optimism, supportive capital return programs. [27]
- Watch-items: 2026 inflation/tariff debates, Fed path, and how high expectations are heading into the Jan. 15 earnings report. [28]
This article is for informational purposes only and is not investment advice.
References
1. www.marketwatch.com, 2. www.nasdaqtrader.com, 3. www.nyse.com, 4. www.marketwatch.com, 5. www.marketwatch.com, 6. www.investing.com, 7. www.marketwatch.com, 8. apnews.com, 9. www.ft.com, 10. www.reuters.com, 11. www.marketwatch.com, 12. www.businessinsider.com, 13. www.barrons.com, 14. www.morganstanley.com, 15. finviz.com, 16. www.investing.com, 17. www.marketbeat.com, 18. apnews.com, 19. www.federalreserve.gov, 20. www.marketwatch.com, 21. www.reuters.com, 22. www.reuters.com, 23. www.morganstanley.com, 24. www.investing.com, 25. www.marketwatch.com, 26. www.nasdaqtrader.com, 27. apnews.com, 28. www.barrons.com


