U.S. stocks return from the Christmas break on Friday, December 26, 2025, and Morgan Stanley (NYSE: MS) heads into the session near recent highs after a strong year for large U.S. banks. With liquidity often thinner in the post-holiday “Santa Claus rally” window, early moves can be sharper than usual—making it especially important to separate headline-driven sentiment from the firm’s fundamental drivers: investment banking activity, trading performance, and wealth management flows.
Below is what investors should have on their radar before the opening bell.
When does the U.S. stock market open on Dec. 26, 2025?
The New York Stock Exchange’s core trading session runs 9:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET. [1]
Despite federal office closures ordered around the holiday period, major U.S. exchanges indicated they would follow their standard schedules, with a full trading day on Dec. 26. [2]
Morgan Stanley stock price check: where MS stands heading into the open
As of the most recent available quote (from the last pre-holiday session), Morgan Stanley shares traded around $181.65, with an intraday range roughly between $179.57 and $182.00.
Two key reference points investors have been watching:
- 52-week high:$181.98, reached on December 11, 2025, per MarketWatch data reporting. [3]
- 52-week range: approximately $94.33 to $182.00, highlighting how far the stock has climbed over the past year. [4]
That proximity to the 52-week high matters because it can amplify the market’s reaction to fresh catalysts—positive or negative—especially in thin post-holiday trading.
The big picture: why big banks (including Morgan Stanley) have been strong into year-end
A central narrative of 2025 has been the outperformance of large U.S. banks, supported by expectations of a friendlier regulatory tone and a rebound in investment banking activity. The Financial Times reported that America’s six largest banks collectively added about $600 billion in market value in 2025, citing deregulation momentum and a revival in investment banking as key contributors. [5]
For Morgan Stanley specifically, the market tends to focus on three engines:
- Institutional Securities (investment banking + trading)
- Wealth Management (asset-based fees + net interest income + transactional activity)
- Investment Management (AUM growth and flows)
Fundamentals: what Morgan Stanley’s latest quarter says about momentum
Morgan Stanley’s most recent quarterly report (third quarter 2025, released Oct. 15) delivered numbers that reinforced the “investment banking revival + strong markets” theme:
- Net revenues:$18.2 billion (record)
- EPS:$2.80
- ROTCE:23.5%
- Total client assets across Wealth and Investment Management:$8.9 trillion
- Wealth Management net new assets:$81 billion (with a ~30% pretax margin cited in the release) [6]
The release also showed strength across major operating lines (investment banking, equities, wealth management activity), which is why Morgan Stanley has traded with a “quality cyclicals” feel: it can benefit both from deal activity and from market volatility/volume when trading conditions improve. [7]
Reuters’ coverage of that quarter highlighted the surge in dealmaking and trading, and noted management’s confidence in a record investment banking pipeline, with commentary suggesting next year could challenge prior deal-volume peaks. [8]
The headline catalyst investors are talking about: SpaceX IPO “front-runner” chatter
One of the most watched recent stories tied to Morgan Stanley is its potential role in a blockbuster listing.
Reuters reported on Dec. 19, 2025 that Morgan Stanley is seen as a front-runner to lead SpaceX’s anticipated IPO, citing sources and noting the bank’s long relationship with Elon Musk and involvement in past Musk-related transactions. [9]
Why this matters for MS stock (even before anything is finalized):
- A marquee IPO can generate meaningful underwriting/advisory fees (though the timing and structure of any offering remain uncertain).
- It reinforces Morgan Stanley’s brand in tech and capital markets at a time when IPO windows are viewed as reopening.
- It supports the broader “investment banking comeback” narrative that tends to lift MS valuation multiples.
Important caveat: this is still process-driven (bank “bake-offs,” market timing, internal issuer decisions). Treat it as a sentiment tailwind—not bankable revenue—until formally announced. [10]
Deal pipeline outlook: Morgan Stanley sees more M&A and IPO activity ahead
At Reuters NEXT in New York, Morgan Stanley’s co-head of investment banking Mo Assomull said the firm expects a broad pickup in M&A and IPOs in the coming year, with pipelines described as healthy across multiple sectors. [11]
This matters for Dec. 26 because MS is often treated as a high-beta play on capital markets activity. If investors come into year-end believing 2026 will feature:
- steadier rate cuts / easier financial conditions,
- improving CEO confidence,
- and a reopening IPO calendar,
then MS can catch incremental bids as a “pure play” on deal flow compared with more lending-heavy banks.
Crypto and ETrade: a retail-trading growth option (with execution risk)
Another theme returning to the spotlight: crypto access for mainstream brokerage clients.
Reuters reported that Morgan Stanley plans to offer cryptocurrency trading on ETrade beginning in the first half of 2026 via a partnership with Zerohash, with initial trading expected to include bitcoin, ether, and solana, according to a company spokesperson. [12]
In late December, Reuters also contextualized this move as part of a broader trend of major Wall Street firms weighing deeper crypto participation. [13]
How MS investors typically frame this:
- Bullish read: keeps ETrade competitive with platforms offering more direct crypto exposure and may increase engagement/revenue opportunities over time.
- Bearish read: execution and compliance costs can rise, and crypto activity can be cyclical and sentiment-driven.
On Dec. 26, don’t be surprised if MS moves in sympathy with other “crypto-enabled” financial names if digital-asset headlines hit premarket.
Capital return: dividend and buybacks remain part of the MS story
Capital returns have been a continuing pillar of the Morgan Stanley equity narrative—especially in a year when “well-capitalized banks” became a repeated theme.
In a July 1, 2025 announcement, Morgan Stanley said it would raise its quarterly common dividend to $1.00 per share and authorized a renewed $20 billion multi-year share repurchase program. [14]
In its Q3 2025 earnings materials, the firm also disclosed it repurchased $1.1 billion of common stock during the quarter and declared a $1.00 quarterly dividend payable in November 2025. [15]
Why this matters before the bell: when a stock is near highs, the market often asks whether buybacks will remain a steady support bid, particularly if trading and investment banking remain strong into the next earnings print.
Legal and regulatory watch: the Dutch fine is a fresh headline risk
Investors also need to track legal/regulatory items that can affect sentiment, even if they’re framed as historical.
Reuters reported on Nov. 27, 2025 that the Dutch public prosecutor imposed a €101 million fine on Morgan Stanley entities in London and Amsterdam related to dividend tax evasion allegations, describing the matter as involving tax filings from more than a decade earlier; Morgan Stanley said it was pleased to have resolved the “historical matter.” [16]
This kind of development can matter in two ways:
- Direct financial impact (the penalty itself)
- Narrative impact (compliance and governance headlines can weigh on multiples)
It’s not necessarily a day-to-day trading driver, but it is part of the current news set investors may revisit when positioning around earnings.
The “healthy correction” warning: CEO commentary that still lingers
A different type of risk comes from valuations and broader market psychology.
Reuters reported in early November that CEO Ted Pick warned markets could see a 10%–15% correction, characterizing drawdowns as normal rather than crisis-driven. [17]
This matters because Morgan Stanley stock tends to be sensitive to:
- equity market levels (wealth management fee base),
- equity volatility (trading),
- and risk appetite (deal activity).
In other words, MS can benefit from active markets—but a sharp, disorderly risk-off move typically pressures the group.
Forecasts and analyst expectations: what Wall Street is projecting
Analyst targets and estimates vary by data provider, but here’s a snapshot of widely-circulated consensus indicators:
Next earnings date (confirmed)
Morgan Stanley has scheduled its Q4 and full-year 2025 investor conference call for Thursday, Jan. 15, 2026, and stated results are expected to be released around 7:30 a.m. ET, with the call at 8:30 a.m. ET. [18]
TipRanks also lists Jan. 15, 2026 (before open) as the report date and shows a consensus EPS forecast around 2.41 for the quarter. [19]
Analyst rating and price targets
- TipRanks shows an analyst consensus of “Moderate Buy” (based on its tracked analyst set). [20]
- MarketBeat lists an average 12‑month target price around $174.77, with a range from $144 to $202, implying modest downside versus the latest quote near $181.65. [21]
- StockAnalysis shows a similar range and an average target around $171.92 (also implying a small downside on its data). [22]
The takeaway for Dec. 26 positioning: MS is not trading as a “left-behind” bank. A lot of optimism is already reflected in the price, which can raise the bar for upside surprises.
What to watch specifically at the open on Dec. 26
Here’s a practical checklist for the first hour of trading:
- Liquidity and seasonal patterns
- Dec. 26 is often discussed as a historically positive day for U.S. equities, and it lands in the Santa Claus rally window—though seasonality is not destiny. [23]
- Overall market tone
- U.S. indexes ended the shortened Dec. 24 session at record closing highs, according to Reuters—creating a risk-on setup heading into Friday’s reopen. [24]
- MS near resistance
- The stock is hovering around the $182 area that has functioned as a recent high-water mark. [25]
A clean break above can draw momentum buying; a rejection can trigger quick profit-taking in thin trade.
- The stock is hovering around the $182 area that has functioned as a recent high-water mark. [25]
- Deal headlines
- Any incremental updates tied to major IPO chatter (including SpaceX) or broader M&A commentary can move MS more than peers because of its capital markets mix. [26]
- Crypto sentiment
- If digital-asset news drives risk appetite, MS can get pulled into the theme because of its planned ETrade crypto rollout (even though it’s targeted for 2026). [27]
- Regulatory/legal narrative
- The Dutch fine is still fresh enough to be part of the “risk file” investors keep in mind—especially when the stock is priced near highs. [28]
Bottom line for Morgan Stanley stock before the bell
Morgan Stanley enters the Dec. 26 session with strong momentum, buoyed by a constructive backdrop for U.S. banks, evidence of a rebound in investment banking, and attention-grabbing headlines from potential big-ticket IPO work and retail crypto plans. [29]
But with MS trading near a 52-week high and consensus price targets clustered below the current quote on several trackers, the market is also signaling that good news may already be priced in—making execution, earnings follow-through, and market conditions the key swing factors into January. [30]
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.
References
1. www.nyse.com, 2. www.reuters.com, 3. www.marketwatch.com, 4. www.investing.com, 5. www.ft.com, 6. www.morganstanley.com, 7. www.morganstanley.com, 8. www.reuters.com, 9. www.reuters.com, 10. www.reuters.com, 11. www.reuters.com, 12. www.reuters.com, 13. www.reuters.com, 14. www.morganstanley.com, 15. www.morganstanley.com, 16. www.reuters.com, 17. www.reuters.com, 18. www.morganstanley.com, 19. www.tipranks.com, 20. www.tipranks.com, 21. www.marketbeat.com, 22. stockanalysis.com, 23. www.marketwatch.com, 24. www.reuters.com, 25. www.marketwatch.com, 26. www.reuters.com, 27. www.reuters.com, 28. www.reuters.com, 29. www.ft.com, 30. www.marketbeat.com
