Mortgage rates today are still stuck just above 6% for most borrowers, even as the Federal Reserve has delivered its third interest rate cut of 2025 and taken its benchmark rate down to the lowest level since 2022. [1]
The result is a confusing picture for homebuyers: headline news screams “Fed cuts rates,” but the monthly payment on a new 30‑year mortgage remains painfully high compared with the ultra‑cheap loans of the pandemic era.
Where mortgage rates stand today (December 10, 2025)
Different surveys calculate averages in slightly different ways, but they’re all telling the same story: 30‑year fixed rates are clustered in a narrow band just above 6%, with shorter‑term loans in the mid‑5% range.
National average purchase rates today
- 30‑year fixed mortgage: roughly 6.1% to 6.4%
- Bankrate pegs today’s average 30‑year fixed interest rate at 6.26%, with an APR of 6.32%. [2]
- NerdWallet/Zillow’s rate tracker shows a 30‑year fixed APR around 6.13%–6.15%, up modestly from yesterday but still lower than a year ago. [3]
- Mortgage News Daily’s widely watched daily index puts the 30‑year fixed at 6.36%, up a hair (0.01 percentage point) from Tuesday. [4]
- 15‑year fixed mortgage: generally in the mid‑5% range
- Adjustable‑rate mortgages (ARMs):mid‑5% to upper‑6%
Government‑backed loans remain slightly cheaper for qualifying borrowers. NerdWallet’s breakdown (based on Zillow data) shows FHA 30‑year fixed rates near 6.12% and VA loans closer to the high‑5% range, reinforcing the pattern that FHA/VA can shave a few tenths of a point off conventional rates for eligible buyers. [9]
Refinance rates: still elevated, but pockets of opportunity
Refinancers face slightly higher costs than purchase borrowers on average:
- 30‑year fixed refinance: around 6.4%–6.5% nationally
- 15‑year refinance: generally mid‑5%
- Forbes reports a 15‑year refi around 5.43%, while Bankrate shows 15‑year refinance rates near 5.94%depending on lender and borrower profile. [12]
Even at these levels, several analyses note that refinancing can still make sense for homeowners who took out loans near the 7.5%–8% peaks seen in late 2023 and early 2024, especially if they plan to stay in their homes long enough to recoup closing costs. Reuters, for example, highlights that refi savings can still reach tens of thousands of dollars over the life of the loan for some borrowers. [13]
How today’s mortgage rates compare with last week and last year
Today’s rates are not rock‑bottom, but they are lower than a year ago and slightly higher than a few weeks back.
- Mortgage News Daily’s index shows the 30‑year fixed at 6.36% today, versus 6.35% yesterday and 6.78% on the same date last year—a roughly 0.4‑percentage‑point improvement year‑over‑year. [14]
- NerdWallet notes that its 30‑year fixed APR is 10–11 basis points (0.10–0.11 percentage point) higher than a week ago, but around 14 basis points lower than a year earlier. [15]
- Bankrate points out that so far in 2025 the 30‑year mortgage rate has averaged about 6.72%, meaning today’s ~6.3% levels are below this year’s average, even if they feel high compared with 3% pandemic‑era loans. [16]
Weekly data tell a similar story. Freddie Mac’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey (PMMS) put the average 30‑year fixed at 6.19% for the week ending December 4, down slightly from 6.23% the prior week and well below the nearly 7% peaks earlier this year. [17]
In short: rates have come down from their worst levels, but they’re still elevated enough to stress affordability.
The Fed cut rates today. Why aren’t mortgages plunging?
On Wednesday, December 10, 2025, the Federal Reserve cut its benchmark federal funds rate by 0.25 percentage point, setting a new target range of 3.50%–3.75%. It’s the third consecutive cut this year and the lowest Fed policy rate since late 2022. [18]
But mortgage rates don’t move in lockstep with Fed decisions:
- The federal funds rate is an overnight rate that banks charge one another.
- Mortgage rates are priced off longer‑term bond yields, especially the 10‑year U.S. Treasury, plus an extra spread for mortgage‑specific risks. [19]
Several outlets have been hammering home this disconnect. MarketWatch recently highlighted that mortgage rates actually surged ahead of the expected Fed cut, confusing borrowers who assumed “lower Fed rate = lower mortgage rate.” [20]
And in a same‑day explainer, Reuters notes that while Fed cuts eventually filter into cheaper borrowing costs, mortgage rates “may not fall immediately” and instead tend to react to expectations for future inflation and growth baked into Treasury yields. [21]
HousingWire’s coverage of today’s Fed meeting sums up the consensus: the Fed’s move should “ease” mortgage rates only gradually in 2026, not send them tumbling overnight. [22]
The Fed’s new outlook: one more cut in 2026 – maybe
Today’s Fed decision came with updated economic projections and a fresh “dot plot” of policymakers’ rate expectations:
- Policymakers cut the funds rate to 3.5%–3.75% by a 9–3 vote—an unusually high level of dissent. [23]
- The median Fed projection points to just one more quarter‑point cut in 2026, leaving rates near 3.25%–3.50% at the end of next year. [24]
- Inflation is projected to ease toward 2.4%–2.5%, while unemployment is expected to hover around 4.4%, suggesting the Fed is trying to protect a softening job market without reigniting inflation. [25]
This relatively cautious path is one reason analysts don’t expect mortgage rates to crash back to 3%–4% any time soon: if long‑term yields stay anchored in the 3.5%–4.5% range, mortgage rates are likely to remain somewhere in the 5.5%–6.5% zone, barring a major economic shock. [26]
Mortgage rate forecasts for 2026: slow drift lower, not a free‑fall
Fresh forecasts published today and in the run‑up to this Fed meeting mostly agree on one theme: mortgage rates will cool, but slowly.
Big‑picture forecasts
- A new Reuters poll of property experts released today projects average 30‑year mortgage rates around 6.18% in 2026 and 5.88% in 2027, even as home prices are expected to rise just 1.4% next year. [27]
- NerdWallet reports that both the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) and Fannie Mae expect 30‑year rates to average about 6.3% for the final quarter of 2025—implying only modest changes from today’s levels. [28]
- A more detailed MBA outlook for 2026, cited in Yahoo Finance coverage, suggests 30‑year fixed rates will hold near 6.4% on average next year, before drifting lower after 2026. [29]
- MBA economists, in a “Six for 2026” note, describe their base case as “mortgage rates holding in the low‑6 percent range”, with potential moves “toward six” but not enough to single‑handedly “jump‑start the market.” [30]
Realtor.com and other housing researchers echo this low‑6% view, projecting mortgage rates around 6.3% through 2026 with home prices rising only a couple of percent per year—just enough to keep affordability tight. [31]
Will mortgage rates drop below 6%?
Some analysts are cautiously optimistic that we’ll at least briefly see a “5‑handle” on 30‑year mortgages:
- Reuters’ consumer‑focused piece on today’s rate cut quotes LendingTree’s Matt Schulz, who expects 30‑year mortgage rates to dip below 6% at some point in 2026, potentially triggering a wave of refinancing. [32]
- Bankrate’s Jeff Ostrowski and other commentators have been telling borrowers to expect “gradual declines” rather than a cliff‑like drop, emphasizing that recent moves are already a retreat from 2023’s peaks but not a return to pandemic‑era bargains. [33]
Bottom line: Most credible forecasts cluster around the low‑6% range for 2026, with a realistic chance of flirting with sub‑6% at times—but a very low chance of sustained sub‑5% rates unless the economy weakens significantly.
What this means for homebuyers right now
Affordability remains tough – but not hopeless
The combination of high home prices, limited inventory, and 6%‑plus mortgage rates continues to squeeze buyers, especially first‑timers. Reuters’ poll today highlights that affordability remains the top barrier for would‑be homeowners, and predicts only 1.4% home‑price growth in 2026, reflecting a sluggish, rate‑constrained market. [34]
To put today’s rates in perspective:
- At roughly 6.3%, a $100,000 30‑year loan translates to about $619 per month in principal and interest.
- That means a $400,000 mortgage runs close to $2,500 a month before taxes and insurance—still a hefty payment, but notably lower than what borrowers faced when rates were near 8%.
(Those figures are illustrative only; your actual payment will depend on your rate, loan type, credit profile, and fees.)
At the same time, Bankrate points out that the current 30‑year rate is still below the 40‑year historical average of roughly 7.2%, reminding us that what feels “high” compared with 2020–2021 is closer to “normal” over the long run. [35]
What about refinancing?
For homeowners who locked in rates above 7% in late 2023 or early 2024, today’s averages around 6.3%–6.5% may already justify a serious look at refinancing—especially if they expect to stay put for many years.
Reuters notes that refinancing into the lowest rate available can save some households $50,000 or more over the life of a loan, according to recent LendingTree research. [36]
However, if your existing mortgage is in the mid‑5% range or lower, most experts suggest it’s usually not worth refinancing purely to shave a small amount off the rate once you account for closing costs—unless you’re also changing the loan term or tapping equity. [37]
How to get the best mortgage rate in today’s market
You can’t control the Fed or the bond market, but you can control how attractive you look to lenders. Consumer‑finance experts, regulators, and housing agencies all give similar core advice. [38]
Here are the levers most borrowers can pull:
1. Polish your credit profile
- Aim for the highest score you realistically can; lenders reserve their best pricing for borrowers with scores around 740–760+.
- Pay bills on time, reduce credit‑card balances, and correct any errors on your credit reports before you apply.
2. Lower your debt‑to‑income (DTI) ratio
- Pay down high‑interest debts where possible.
- Lenders look at how much of your monthly income is already committed; less existing debt = lower perceived risk = better rate offers.
3. Save for a stronger down payment
- A bigger down payment reduces your loan‑to‑value (LTV) ratio, which can unlock better pricing and may eliminate private mortgage insurance on conventional loans. [39]
4. Shop aggressively among multiple lenders
- Research from Freddie Mac and others shows that getting quotes from at least 3–5 lenders can save borrowers thousands of dollars over the life of a loan, even if the rate difference looks tiny. [40]
- Consumer‑finance regulators recommend collecting quotes within a 45‑day window, so multiple credit inquiries count as a single “rate‑shopping” event in many scoring models. [41]
5. Consider points and loan structure carefully
- Paying discount points (an upfront fee equal to about 1% of the loan amount per point) can buy down your rate—often by roughly 0.25 percentage point per point—but only pays off if you keep the loan long enough to reach the break‑even point. [42]
- Shorter‑term loans (like 15‑year mortgages) usually come with lower rates but much higher monthly payments, so they’re best suited to borrowers with strong cash flow and a long‑term commitment to the property. [43]
Should you wait for better rates or buy now?
No forecast is perfect, but there are a few practical takeaways from today’s data and expert outlooks:
- Don’t expect a return to 3% mortgages anytime soon. Most forecasts see 30‑year rates hovering in the low‑6% range in 2026, with any dip below 6% likely to be temporary. [44]
- Modest relief is likely over the next 12–24 months. If inflation cools as expected and the Fed follows through with at least one more cut, many analysts see mortgage rates drifting into the high‑5% range by 2027—enough to improve affordability, but not to replicate the ultra‑low‑rate boom of 2020–2021. [45]
- Your personal finances matter more than timing the market by a few tenths of a percent. Whether it’s worth buying or refinancing now depends on your job stability, savings, credit profile, and how long you plan to stay in the home—questions no national average can answer for you. [46]
If you’re on the fence, a practical approach many planners recommend is to shop for a home you can comfortably afford at today’s rate and treat any future refi opportunity as a bonus, not a requirement for your plan to work. [47]
Key takeaways from December 10, 2025
- 30‑year fixed mortgage rates today sit in a tight band just above 6%, with most national surveys landing between 6.1% and 6.4%. [48]
- The Federal Reserve cut its policy rate by 0.25 percentage point to 3.5%–3.75%, but mortgage rates have barely budged in response because they’re tied to long‑term bond yields, not the overnight rate. [49]
- Most 2026 forecasts cluster around low‑6% mortgage rates, with experts expecting only gradual declines and a possible brief dip below 6% if economic conditions cooperate. [50]
- For buyers and refinancers, the biggest savings still come from improving your personal profile—credit, debt levels, down payment—and shopping multiple lenders aggressively, not from trying to guess the exact month rates will fall. [51]
References
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