New York, Jan 29, 2026, 06:39 EST — Premarket.
U.S. mortgage rates hovered near 6% early Thursday, as both borrowers and bond traders absorbed the Fed’s choice to hold policy rates steady. Zillow Home Loans reported a 30-year fixed rate of 5.99%, with an APR of 6.154%. Meanwhile, Mortgage News Daily’s latest index showed the 30-year fixed at 6.16% as of Wednesday. (Zillow)
Why it matters now: deals are still closing at these levels, but the margin is razor-thin. New data from the Mortgage Bankers Association showed applications dropped 8.5% in the week ending Jan. 23. Meanwhile, the average contract rate on a 30-year fixed conforming loan climbed to 6.24% from 6.16% — marking “the highest in three weeks,” according to MBA’s Joel Kan. (MBA)
Mortgage rates don’t track the Fed’s benchmark rate exactly. Instead, the Fed’s guidance influences U.S. Treasury yields and mortgage-backed securities, which then determine lenders’ offerings and the pace at which they’re ready to lower rates.
In the bond market, the 10-year Treasury yield — a key benchmark for U.S. mortgage rates — closed Wednesday at 4.26%, ticking up 2 basis points from Tuesday, according to Treasury data. (A basis point equals 0.01 percentage point.) (U.S. Department of the Treasury)
On Wednesday, the Fed kept its policy rate unchanged at 3.50%-3.75%, putting a pause on the easing cycle that’s been boosting risk assets, Reuters reported. Markets had been betting on a rate cut in June, while one investor noted inflation remains “a bit sticky” despite steady growth. (Reuters)
Mortgage rates differ across surveys. This week, Bankrate’s lender poll put the average 30-year fixed at 6.18%, down from 6.25% last week. The 15-year fixed came in at 5.56%, while the 30-year jumbo rate stood at 6.38%. Melissa Cohn of William Raveis Mortgage told Bankrate the Fed will probably “keep the fed funds rate as is” until new data supports a cut. (Bankrate)
The difference between these measures isn’t just a rounding error. Some track lender offers, others focus on contracts locked by borrowers, and some include points and fees. APR is supposed to reflect all those costs, but most borrowers still shop based on the headline rate.
Housing-related stocks showed mixed moves in light premarket action. Rocket Companies fell roughly 1.2%, whereas D.R. Horton gained close to 1.1%. The iShares MBS ETF, tracking mortgage-backed securities, hovered near its previous close.
Rates can shift fast. A hotter inflation reading, a spike in Treasury yields, or wider mortgage bond spreads could send the 30-year climbing again — even with the Fed holding steady.
Coming up, U.S. investors will focus on Thursday’s revised productivity and costs data, followed by Friday’s December 2025 producer price index—both set for 8:30 a.m. ET. These reports have the potential to shake up yields and, in turn, mortgage rates. (Bls)
