NEW YORK, March 21, 2026, 14:34 EDT
U.S. mortgage rates pushed higher for another week, complicating things for buyers as the spring selling season gets going. Freddie Mac’s 30-year fixed average ticked up 11 basis points to 6.22%—a mark not seen since Dec. 11. Over at Mortgage News Daily, the daily reading hit 6.53% on Friday, the loftiest since Sept. 3.
This is key as demand has begun to pick up. Purchase applications and pending home sales are showing signs of life, according to Freddie Mac. Data from MBA puts last week’s purchase apps 12% above where they were a year ago. The NAR said February pending sales edged up 1.8% from January.
Markets suddenly hit turbulence as the macro picture shifted. On March 18, the Fed kept its policy rate steady at 3.5%-3.75%, citing uncertainty over how events in the Middle East might affect the economy. Then came Treasury data on March 20: the 10-year yield landed at 4.39%, a threshold that passes right into mortgage rates.
Freddie Mac reported the 30-year average rate remains under last year’s 6.67% mark, while the 15-year fixed climbed to 5.54% from 5.50% just a week back. Borrowing costs are still lower than last spring, but March erased some of the relief seen earlier in the year.
Rising Treasury yields, along with pricier oil, are pushing rates higher, said Joel Kan, MBA’s vice president and deputy chief economist, warning of “the risk of a broader inflationary shock.” Mortgage applications didn’t hold up: MBA’s weekly survey showed a 10.9% drop for the week ending March 13, with refinances tumbling 19%. The average contract rate for 30-year fixed conforming loans—those within federal limits—climbed to 6.30% from 6.19%. MBA Newslink
Pending sales—tracking signed contracts ahead of actual closings by a month or two—showed a bit of staying power. The National Association of REALTORS® reported a 0.8% year-over-year decline for February, but chief economist Lawrence Yun credited improved affordability for the monthly increase. Yun also flagged a risk: if oil prices push mortgage rates higher, that momentum could fade.
Supply figures painted a weaker picture. Joint data from Census and HUD showed new-home sales in January slipped 17.6% compared to December, landing at a 587,000 annual rate. The median price also declined, down 6.8% year-over-year to $400,500.
This isn’t just about 30-year loans: According to MBA, jumbo 30-year rates moved up to 6.39%, while FHA-backed 30-year mortgages hit 6.08%. The 5/1 ARMs? Those climbed as well, now at 5.65%.
Even so, bond yields could shift course in a hurry if they start to fall. At the moment, the main risk seems tilted toward higher yields: Chair Jerome Powell called the Middle East’s impact on the U.S. economy “uncertain,” while Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily doesn’t see much chance of mortgage rates dropping back to February’s lows anytime soon. Federal Reserve
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