MP Materials (MP) Stock Today: Goldman Sachs Buy Rating, New Institutional Buying and Rare‑Earth Supply Risks – 19 November 2025

• Goldman Sachs initiates coverage of MP Materials with a Buy rating and $77 price target. ^[1]
• Hedge fund Dorsey Wright & Associates discloses a fresh stake as institutional ownership deepens. ^[2]
• New reports highlight heavy rare earth (HREE) bottlenecks that could constrain MP’s magnet ambitions despite massive U.S. backing. ^[3]
• Shares trade around $58.51, up about 2–3% today and roughly 275% year‑to‑date, but still highly volatile. ^[4]
• The company is coming off a loss‑making Q3 2025 even as NdPr production hits records and the magnet business scales. ^[5]

Goldman Sachs Piles In With a Fresh Buy Rating

Wall Street’s latest endorsement of MP Materials Corp. (NYSE: MP) landed before the opening bell today. Goldman Sachs initiated coverage on the rare‑earth producer with a Buy rating and a $77 12‑month price target, implying roughly 30–32% upside from the current price near $58.50. ^[6]

Analyst Brian Lee highlighted MP as:

• The largest rare‑earth producer in the Western Hemisphere, focused on neodymium‑praseodymium (NdPr) oxide used in high‑performance permanent magnets. ^[7]
• A future dominant North American magnet supplier, with plans to control over 90% of NdPr production on the continent once its downstream assets fully ramp. ^[8]
• Strategically aligned with U.S. industrial and defense policy via partnerships with General Motors, Apple and the U.S. government to secure magnet supply and recycling capacity. ^[9]

Goldman’s call follows a wave of recent upgrades:

• J.P. Morgan: Neutral → Overweight, price target trimmed from $75 to $74 (Nov. 14). ^[10]
• Deutsche Bank: Hold → Buy, target raised from $68 to $71 (Nov. 10). ^[11]
• DA Davidson: Reiterated Buy with an $82 target after Q3 earnings (Nov. 7). ^[12]
• BofA Securities: Maintained Buy and hiked its target from $78 to $112 in mid‑October. ^[13]

According to GuruFocus, the average 12‑month target price sits around $79.86 across 13 covering analysts, with most rating the stock Outperform or equivalent. ^[14]

At the same time, GuruFocus’ proprietary GF Value model pegs MP’s fair value closer to $46.95, implying nearly 20% downside from today’s price and underscoring the debate over whether investors are paying too much for future growth. ^[15]

Hedge Funds Add Exposure: Dorsey Wright’s New Stake

Also out today, a MarketBeat alert shows Dorsey Wright & Associates taking a new position in MP Materials during the second quarter, buying 64,221 shares worth roughly $2.14 million at the time of the filing. ^[16]

The same report highlights broader institutional interest:

• Rockefeller Capital Management boosted its stake by about 133% in Q2 to nearly 177,000 shares.
• Other institutional investors, including Rothschild Investment and SBI Securities, also opened or expanded positions.
• Overall, hedge funds and institutions now own about 52.6% of the float, while insiders hold roughly 12.6%. ^[17]

On the insider side, COO Michael Rosenthal sold 150,000 shares in late August at an average price a bit above $72, trimming but not exiting his large holding of more than 1.28 million shares. ^[18]

Adding to the ownership story, Australian mining billionaire Gina Rinehart has recently become MP’s largest shareholder, lifting her stake to about 8.4% after buying an additional 1 million shares in Q3. The position was valued at roughly $997 million at the end of September, edging out founder‑CEO James Litinsky, who owns about 7.9%. ^[19]

Stock Reaction: Big Year, Big Volatility

Goldman Sachs’ initiation has given the stock another jolt:

• MP gained about 2% in pre‑market trading after the rating hit the wires. ^[20]
• Around midday, shares trade near $58.51, up roughly 2.7% on the session.

Yet the bigger story is the rollercoaster of 2025:

• MP is up around 275–276% year‑to‑date, making it one of the standout performers in the critical‑minerals space. ^[21]
• After a euphoric surge on fears of Chinese export controls, rare‑earth names—including MP—have fallen roughly 45% from recent highs as trade tensions temporarily eased. ^[22]

With a beta near 1.7–2.3, analysts flag MP as significantly more volatile than the broader market—great for traders, but uncomfortable for more conservative investors. ^[23]

Rare‑Earth Reality Check: Heavy Elements Are the Bottleneck

While Wall Street is leaning bullish, today’s macro headlines underscore MP’s biggest structural challenge: heavy rare earth elements (HREEs).

A new Reuters deep‑dive published this morning describes how the West’s push to build a home‑grown rare‑earth magnet supply chain—“led by massive U.S. backing for Nevada‑based MP Materials”—is colliding with the scarcity of two critical heavy rare earths: dysprosium (Dy) and terbium (Tb). ^[24]

Key points from that report:

• MP’s Mountain Pass mine in California is rich in light rare earths but contains less than 1.8% medium and heavy rare earths by composition. ^[25]
• MP has stockpiled several hundred tonnes of concentrate containing medium and heavy rare earths, but only around 4% of that is Dy and Tb—not nearly enough for the company’s long‑term magnet output goals. ^[26]
• Outside China, supply of heavy rare earths is so tight that dysprosium trades at roughly $900/kg in Rotterdam, more than three times the domestic Chinese price. ^[27]

At the same time, GuruFocus today released a separate note explicitly titled “MP Materials Faces Challenges in Rare Earth Supply Chain Initiative.” It reiterates that MP’s success hinges on securing reliable Dy and Tb feedstock as the U.S. and allies try to derisk their magnet supply chains from China. ^[28]

MP’s Response: Heavy‑Rare Plant and Magnet Chain Build‑Out

MP is not sitting still. In its Q3 2025 earnings release, the company laid out a detailed plan to expand beyond mining into metals, alloys and finished magnets: ^[29]

• A new heavy rare earth separation facility at Mountain Pass is slated to begin commissioning around mid‑2026.
• The plant is designed to process about 3,000 metric tonnes of feedstock per year, with an initial focus on Dy and Tb. Its dedicated Dy/Tb circuit has a nameplate capacity of ~200 tonnes per year, intended to support MP’s target of 10,000 tonnes of NdFeB magnets annually. ^[30]
• Since late 2023, MP has been producing and stockpiling SEG+ heavy‑rare concentrate (containing Sm, Eu, Gd and several heavy rare earths) and plans to supplement this with feedstock from emerging sources in Brazil, Malaysia, Africa and other regions. ^[31]

On the demand and offtake side:

• MP has signed a multi‑billion‑dollar public‑private partnership with the U.S. government to build an end‑to‑end rare‑earth magnet supply chain in the U.S. ^[32]
• A separate $500 million deal with Apple envisions MP supplying magnets made with recycled material from old Apple devices, providing an additional source of heavy rare earths. ^[33]
• The company is also constructing a metal and magnet plant in Fort Worth, Texas, tying together mining, processing and downstream manufacturing. ^[34]

Even with these steps, analysts quoted by Reuters caution that the West is still on track to rely on China for about 91% of its heavy rare earth needs in 2030, only a modest improvement from today. ^[35]

Financial Snapshot: Losses Today for Scale Tomorrow

Behind the strategic headlines, MP’s latest numbers are still in the red.

For Q3 2025, MP reported: ^[36]

• Revenue: $53.6 million, down ~15% year‑on‑year from $62.9 million.
• GAAP net loss:$41.8 million, widening from a $25.5 million loss a year earlier.
• Adjusted EBITDA: negative $12.6 million, slightly worse than last year’s -$11.2 million.
• Adjusted EPS:‑$0.10, an improvement vs. ‑$0.12 a year ago and a beat versus consensus of around ‑$0.15.

The revenue drop is largely self‑inflicted: MP halted all rare‑earth concentrate sales to China in the quarter to align with its U.S. government agreements, eliminating a major historical revenue stream. That was offset in part by: ^[37]

• $21.9 million of revenue from the newer Magnetics segment, vs. virtually zero a year ago.
• A 51% jump in NdPr oxide production and a 30% increase in NdPr sales volumes, reflecting the company’s shift toward separated products rather than bulk concentrate. ^[38]

On the balance‑sheet side, GuruFocus data paints a picture of a company that is cash‑rich but margin‑poor: ^[39]

• 3‑year revenue growth: about ‑11.8%.
• Gross margin: roughly ‑25.8%; operating margin: around ‑79.5%; net margin: about ‑50.6%.
• Current ratio: ~8.0 and quick ratio ~7.5, indicating ample liquidity.
• Debt‑to‑equity: ~0.5—moderate leverage but not excessive.

GuruFocus also flags a Beneish M‑Score that it categorizes as a “warning sign,” and notes recent insider selling. Importantly, this is a statistical risk indicator used by that service and not evidence of wrongdoing, but it does remind investors to scrutinize financial reporting carefully in fast‑growing, government‑backed sectors. ^[40]

Geopolitics: MP at the Heart of U.S.–China Mineral Tensions

Today’s MP news sits against an increasingly political backdrop.

• On November 17, Reuters reported that a new licensing deal with China temporarily eases U.S. fears about rare‑earth export bans but stressed that the U.S. still needs to build its own supply chain—with MP as a central public‑private partner. ^[41]
• Another Reuters piece today details how the European Union plans a central authority to coordinate stockpiling of critical minerals, partly out of concern that the U.S. could “snap up” supplies first—again featuring imagery from MP’s Mountain Pass mine. ^[42]
• In Washington, MP’s executive vice‑president for corporate affairs, Matt Sloustcher, is listed as a witness at a House Select Committee on the Chinese Communist Party hearing titled “How the Chinese Communist Party Manipulates Global Mineral Prices to Maintain Its Dominance” scheduled for today, November 19. ^[43]

Taken together, MP is increasingly less a “normal” mining stock and more a strategic infrastructure asset in the eyes of governments—a status that can unlock subsidies and contracts but also exposes the company to policy risk, investigations and shifting political winds. ^[44]

Valuation, Risks and What Today’s News Signals

Today’s cluster of headlines sends a mixed but important message for investors and industry watchers:

Bullish signals

• Top‑tier banks—Goldman Sachs, J.P. Morgan, Deutsche Bank, BofA and others—are largely united in rating MP a Buy/Outperform with an average target in the high‑$70s and some stretching above $100. ^[45]
• Institutional investors, from Dorsey Wright to Rockefeller Capital and Gina Rinehart’s Hancock Prospecting, are either initiating or enlarging stakes, suggesting strong conviction in MP’s long‑term role in Western magnet supply. ^[46]
• The magnet business is finally contributing meaningful revenue, with record NdPr output and ramping downstream assets in California and Texas. ^[47]

Caution flags

• MP remains unprofitable, with deeply negative margins and a widening GAAP net loss as it spends heavily on new facilities and absorbs the impact of cutting off Chinese customers. ^[48]
• Heavy rare earths—Dy and Tb—are a genuine bottleneck that MP cannot solve alone. Without stable feedstock from new mines or recycling streams, magnet output targets may be hard to sustain. ^[49]
• Valuation models like GuruFocus’ GF Value point to potential downside from current levels, while volatility remains high and short‑term swings have been brutal. ^[50]

For now, November 19, 2025 will likely be remembered as a day when:

1. Wall Street doubled down on the MP growth story,
2. Macro headlines reminded everyone of the physics and geology constraints, and
3. Policy makers in Washington and Brussels underscored just how strategic rare earths have become.

Whether MP Materials ultimately lives up to the premium implied by today’s price will depend less on short‑term ratings changes and more on its ability to secure heavy‑rare feedstock, execute on magnet production, and navigate an increasingly politicized global minerals market.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Always do your own research or consult a licensed financial adviser before making investment decisions.

References

1. www.investing.com, 2. www.marketbeat.com, 3. www.reuters.com, 4. www.barrons.com, 5. investors.mpmaterials.com, 6. www.investing.com, 7. www.investing.com, 8. www.investing.com, 9. www.investing.com, 10. www.gurufocus.com, 11. www.gurufocus.com, 12. www.investing.com, 13. www.gurufocus.com, 14. www.gurufocus.com, 15. www.gurufocus.com, 16. www.marketbeat.com, 17. www.marketbeat.com, 18. www.marketbeat.com, 19. www.mining.com, 20. stocktwits.com, 21. www.barrons.com, 22. www.barrons.com, 23. www.gurufocus.com, 24. www.reuters.com, 25. www.reuters.com, 26. www.reuters.com, 27. www.reuters.com, 28. www.gurufocus.com, 29. investors.mpmaterials.com, 30. investors.mpmaterials.com, 31. investors.mpmaterials.com, 32. www.reuters.com, 33. www.reuters.com, 34. www.gurufocus.com, 35. www.reuters.com, 36. investors.mpmaterials.com, 37. investors.mpmaterials.com, 38. investors.mpmaterials.com, 39. www.gurufocus.com, 40. www.gurufocus.com, 41. www.reuters.com, 42. www.reuters.com, 43. democrats-selectcommitteeontheccp.house.gov, 44. www.reuters.com, 45. www.gurufocus.com, 46. www.marketbeat.com, 47. investors.mpmaterials.com, 48. investors.mpmaterials.com, 49. www.reuters.com, 50. www.gurufocus.com