Published: November 21, 2025
MicroStrategy – now doing business as Strategy Inc. (MSTR) – is facing the biggest test yet of its high‑stakes Bitcoin treasury gamble. A new proposal from index provider MSCI and a stark warning from JPMorgan have ignited fears that the “Bitcoin giant” could be kicked out of major equity benchmarks, with knock‑on effects for Bitcoin itself, passive index funds, and S&P 500 inclusion hopes. [1]
Today’s headlines from Yahoo Finance, Barron’s and TheStreet all circle the same core story: if MSCI removes Strategy from key indexes, billions of dollars in forced selling could follow, potentially reshaping how traditional markets handle companies whose balance sheets are dominated by digital assets. [2]
What MSCI Is Proposing – and Why Strategy Is in the Crosshairs
MSCI has launched a consultation on “digital asset treasury” (DAT) companies – publicly traded firms whose valuations are heavily tied to crypto holdings rather than traditional operating businesses.
According to analysis of the draft framework:
- MSCI is considering excluding companies whose digital assets make up at least 50% of total assets from its mainstream equity indexes. [3]
- A preliminary list of 38 companies is reportedly under review, including Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy), Marathon Digital, Riot Platforms and other Bitcoin‑heavy firms. [4]
The logic is simple but controversial: these entities look and behave more like crypto funds or ETFs than diversified operating companies. Their share prices track crypto prices with leverage, and their earnings swing wildly with mark‑to‑market gains and losses, which index committees say can undermine benchmark stability. [5]
For Strategy, whose balance sheet is dominated by Bitcoin, this proposal is essentially a direct hit.
JPMorgan’s Warning: Up to $11.6 Billion in Forced Selling
The alarm bells started ringing louder this week when JPMorgan circulated a note dissected across Barron’s, Yahoo Finance and multiple crypto outlets. [6]
Across those reports, the bank’s estimates line up around three big numbers:
- $2.8 billion – the amount of passive money in MSTR that tracks MSCI indexes alone.
- $8.8 billion – the potential outflows if other major index providers follow MSCI’s lead, according to early summaries of the bank’s work and follow‑on analysis. [7]
- Up to $11.6 billion – a more aggressive upper‑bound scenario highlighted in some crypto‑market recaps, assuming broader index and exchange alignment against DAT stocks. [8]
JPMorgan’s strategists also estimate that roughly $9 billion of Strategy’s roughly mid‑$50 billion market capitalization is currently held via passive index strategies such as funds tied to MSCI USA, MSCI World and the Nasdaq 100. [9]
In other words, a meaningful share of Strategy’s shareholder base doesn’t own MSTR because they chose it – they own it because it sits inside the indexes their funds are required to follow. If those indexes eject the stock, funds must sell, regardless of price.
JPMorgan’s note, quoted across Barron’s, TheStreet and Yahoo Finance, puts the core risk bluntly: exclusion from major equity benchmarks would hit valuation, liquidity and the company’s ability to raise capital, even if Bitcoin itself were to stabilize. [10]
Strategy’s Bitcoin Bet: 649,870 BTC and a “71 Years of Dividends” Claim
All of this is happening just as Strategy loudly re‑markets itself as the ultimate Bitcoin treasury vehicle.
A detailed breakdown published today shows that: [11]
- Strategy holds 649,870 BTC, giving it control of a bit over 3% of all Bitcoin in circulation.
- Using an internal valuation assumption of $87,000 per BTC, the company pegs its BTC stash at around $56 billion.
- Management has touted a model suggesting that, at these price levels, the firm could theoretically cover about $700 million in annual dividends for 71 years, while managing roughly $8.2 billion in debt.
On social media, the company framed this as “71 years of dividend coverage” if Bitcoin simply stays flat, and potentially indefinite coverage if BTC appreciates slightly over time. External analysts, however, are deeply skeptical – not of the raw numbers, but of the idea that Strategy could actually liquidate meaningful chunks of its Bitcoin without triggering a brutal sell‑off in both BTC and MSTR. [12]
Critics argue that any sign Strategy is selling coins to fund dividends or service debt could shatter the core bull narrative and accelerate the very outflows investors fear.
Why the S&P 500 Still Won’t Touch Strategy
While MSCI considers kicking Strategy out of its indexes, S&P Dow Jones Indices has already chosen not to let it in.
In the September 2025 S&P 500 rebalance, the committee added Robinhood, AppLovin and Emcor Group – but passed over Strategy, even though the company met the usual mechanical criteria for market cap, trading volume, U.S. domicile and profitability. [13]
Analysts and commentators outline several reasons:
- Strategy increasingly resembles a Bitcoin holding vehicle more than a classic software firm.
- S&P 500 rules specifically exclude ETFs and ETF‑like structures, and Strategy’s earnings and valuation are now dominated by Bitcoin price swings, not software subscriptions. [14]
- Its stock is extremely volatile and high beta, attributes that make index committees cautious about weighting it alongside large‑cap industrials, banks and consumer names.
This is the tension at the heart of today’s story: Strategy’s Bitcoin reserves are enormous, but the very thing that made the stock famous now makes index inclusion harder.
Stock Pain: MSTR’s Slide Outpaces Bitcoin’s Crash
The market is already pricing in some of this risk – and doing so aggressively.
Recent performance snapshots show:
- Bitcoin is down around 10–15% year‑to‑date, after falling from record highs above $120,000 to the low‑$80,000 range in recent weeks. [15]
- Strategy, by contrast, has plunged over 50% in the past six months, with roughly 40% of that drop coming in just the last month, according to multiple crypto market reports. [16]
- CoinDesk notes that MSTR is now about 68% below the record high of roughly $543 it set one year ago, marking one of its worst drawdowns since adopting a Bitcoin‑first treasury strategy in 2020. [17]
Specialist trackers of “market‑cap‑to‑net‑asset‑value” (mNAV) for DAT stocks say Strategy’s premium over the value of its Bitcoin holdings has almost vanished, with mNAV dropping toward 1.2 after previously peaking around 2.66. [18]
In plain English: the market is starting to value Strategy much more like a slightly leveraged Bitcoin tracker, and much less like a growth stock with a separate software business attached.
Nasdaq, MSCI, Russell: Delisting Risk Spreads Beyond One Index Provider
Today’s reports also make clear that this is not just about one MSCI decision on one ticker.
- TheStreet highlights JPMorgan’s view that Strategy is “at risk of exclusion from major equity indices” as the MSCI decision date of January 15 approaches. [19]
- Several analyses note that Strategy currently sits in the Nasdaq 100, MSCI USA, MSCI World and Russell‑style benchmarks, which has quietly embedded Bitcoin exposure into millions of retirement and brokerage accounts via passive funds. [20]
- Crypto and market news outlets warn that, if MSCI moves first, other index families and even the Nasdaq itself could follow, potentially forcing index‑tracking funds to dump MSTR across a range of products. [21]
Some coverage even raises the specter of Nasdaq delisting risk if Strategy’s free‑float market cap and performance fall too far below index minimum thresholds, though that scenario remains speculative and would likely play out over a longer period. [22]
Why This Matters for Bitcoin – Not Just for MSTR Shareholders
Strategy isn’t just another tech stock with a side hustle in crypto. For years, it has been one of the cleanest ways for mainstream investors to gain levered Bitcoin exposure via a regular brokerage account or retirement plan.
Key linkages highlighted in today’s coverage include: [23]
- Index inclusion: When MSTR joined major benchmarks, Bitcoin exposure quietly entered passive portfolios – even for investors who had never bought BTC directly.
- Forced selling: If MSTR is removed, index funds and ETFs must sell the stock, regardless of their view on Bitcoin. That could hurt MSTR first, but also send a negative signal about institutional comfort with Bitcoin‑heavy corporate structures.
- Treasury precedent: MSCI’s proposed 50% digital‑asset threshold would effectively tell other companies:
- If you copy Strategy’s Bitcoin‑maxi approach, don’t expect to stay in the world’s most important equity indexes.
Some analysts worry that if Strategy is treated as “too Bitcoin‑heavy” for stock indexes, other treasurers could back away from Bitcoin, slowing the asset’s integration into traditional finance. Others argue that the move could clarify the boundary between operating companies that use Bitcoin and fund‑like vehicles that primarily hold it, which might be healthier in the long run. [24]
Inside the “Digital Asset Treasury” Crackdown
Beyond Strategy, MSCI’s consultation and the ripple of JPMorgan commentary are putting an entire niche sector under the microscope.
Across today’s market analysis pieces, several shared themes emerge: [25]
- Structural risk vs. innovation
- Index providers want to avoid benchmarks being dominated by hyper‑volatile, single‑asset bets.
- But DAT firms argue they are pioneering new treasury and capital‑markets models, not running shadow ETFs.
- mNAV compression
- In bull markets, DAT stocks often trade at sizable premiums to the value of their underlying crypto holdings.
- In this bear‑market phase, those premiums are collapsing, exposing leveraged capital structures and raising questions about debt sustainability.
- Regulatory and classification spillovers
- MSCI’s move is likely to influence other index providers, listing venues and even regulators, particularly around how to classify crypto‑heavy corporates in accounting and securities rules.
Academic work on DAT survival strategies, using Strategy as a case study, increasingly emphasizes building non‑price‑dependent revenue streams (for example, services layered on top of Bitcoin infrastructure) so that companies are not forced to sell coins in downturns. [26]
Investor Takeaways: Volatility, Index Risk and the “Leverage on Leverage” Problem
For investors in MSTR, Bitcoin or both, today’s news cycle underlines several practical points:
- MSTR is not a normal software stock
Strategy itself and multiple independent analysts stress that MSTR behaves more like a leveraged Bitcoin vehicle than a traditional tech equity. Its fundamentals, index eligibility and capital‑raising ability all now hinge on Bitcoin price, index committee decisions and market confidence in its balance sheet model. [27] - Index risk is now front‑and‑center
The prospect of mechanical, rules‑driven selling by MSCI‑tracking and potentially Nasdaq‑linked funds introduces a structural overhang that can’t be hedged away easily. Even a Bitcoin recovery might not fully offset the impact if MSTR is forced out of key benchmarks. [28] - Bitcoin integration into TradFi is being re‑negotiated
MSCI’s consultation and the S&P 500’s earlier snub of Strategy suggest that traditional finance wants clearer lines between operating companies and crypto‑fund surrogates. That matters for any future firm considering a Strategy‑style balance‑sheet pivot. [29] - None of this is investment advice
Every major article covering today’s developments emphasizes the same caveat: MSTR is a high‑volatility, high‑conviction bet on Bitcoin, layered with complex index, credit and governance risks. Anyone considering exposure – directly or through funds – needs to assess their risk tolerance, time horizon and dependence on stable income or capital.
Key Dates and What to Watch Next
Here are the crucial milestones and indicators emerging from today’s coverage: [30]
- December 2025 – Expected end of MSCI’s consultation on digital‑asset treasury firms.
- January 15 (2026) – Target date mentioned in multiple analyses for MSCI’s final decision on whether to remove Strategy and peers from its indexes.
- Next S&P 500 rebalance (March 2026) – A fresh test of whether the committee continues to exclude Strategy despite its size and profitability.
- Bitcoin price and MSTR mNAV – If Bitcoin continues to drift lower and Strategy’s mNAV premium slips closer to 1.0 or below, the company’s room to maneuver shrinks.
- Signals from Nasdaq and other index families – Any hint that they will mirror MSCI’s stance could turn today’s “index risk” into a full‑blown index exodus narrative.
Bottom Line
On November 21, 2025, the MicroStrategy/Strategy story stopped being just about one company’s Bitcoin obsession and became a test case for how far traditional finance is willing to go in embracing crypto‑heavy balance sheets.
MSCI’s proposed rules, the S&P 500’s ongoing reluctance, and JPMorgan’s warning about multi‑billion‑dollar forced outflows together mark a turning point:
- Either Strategy survives as a quasi‑Bitcoin sovereign wealth fund inside traditional equity indexes,
- Or it becomes the first big example of a new category of company that must live outside the index mainstream because its core asset is too volatile, too concentrated and too fund‑like for benchmark committees.
For now, MSTR holders, Bitcoin investors and index‑fund savers alike are all watching the same calendar – and waiting to see whether January’s MSCI decision cements Strategy’s role inside the global index ecosystem or pushes it decisively to the edge.
References
1. www.coindesk.com, 2. finance.yahoo.com, 3. www.bitget.com, 4. www.xt.com, 5. www.ainvest.com, 6. www.barrons.com, 7. www.investing.com, 8. www.bitget.com, 9. www.investing.com, 10. www.coindesk.com, 11. www.ccn.com, 12. www.ccn.com, 13. www.ccn.com, 14. www.bitget.com, 15. www.coindesk.com, 16. cryptonews.com, 17. www.coindesk.com, 18. www.panewslab.com, 19. www.thestreet.com, 20. cryptorank.io, 21. coinpedia.org, 22. www.panewslab.com, 23. www.coindesk.com, 24. www.ainvest.com, 25. www.xt.com, 26. arxiv.org, 27. www.ccn.com, 28. www.coindesk.com, 29. www.ccn.com, 30. www.ainvest.com
