Sydney, Jan 17, 2026, 17:18 AEDT — Market closed
- National Australia Bank (ASX:NAB) ended Friday’s session at A$42.67, rising 0.7%.
- Next week’s mortgage-rate shifts and crucial data will keep attention locked on the rate trajectory for Australia’s major banks.
- Coming up: ABS labour force figures for Jan 22 and CPI data on Jan 28, all before the RBA’s Feb 3 decision.
National Australia Bank shares closed Friday 0.7% higher at A$42.67, a slight gain that kept pace with the broader rally in Australian banks ahead of the weekend. 1
For NAB and its rivals, the immediate focus remains on interest rates — not only the current stance of the Reserve Bank of Australia but also the pace of its next moves. Bank profits often shift alongside rate forecasts, since higher interest can boost lending margins while squeezing borrowers.
Mortgage pricing is stirring up debate. Commonwealth Bank bumped fixed home loan rates by as much as 0.7 percentage points. Macquarie followed suit with its own rate hikes. Canstar’s latest comparison reveals NAB offering the cheapest headline fixed rate among the big four banks, at 5.39% for both one- and two-year terms. 2
The shift in banks was clear on Friday’s tape. Australia’s ASX 200 closed 0.48% higher at 8,903.9, marking its best finish since Oct. 17. Westpac led the pack, climbing 1.82%, while Commonwealth Bank added 0.52% and ANZ gained 0.54%, joined by a rise in NAB. 3
NAB’s shares fluctuated between A$42.05 and A$42.80 during the session, remaining shy of its 52-week peak at A$45.25, according to exchange data from Investing.com. 4
The catch is that higher-for-longer rates work both ways. They boost bank income on fresh loans but can also push arrears higher if household budgets get squeezed, especially in the highly competitive mortgage sector.
The central bank has locked in its schedule. The RBA’s cash rate target stands at 3.60%, with the next update due at 2:30 p.m. AEDT on Feb. 3. Inflation figures are expected on Jan. 28. 5
Next week, the key domestic risk for rate bets is the ABS releasing Australia’s December 2025 labour force report on Thursday, Jan. 22 at 11:30 a.m. AEDT. 6
Construction figures are lined up for release on Wednesday, Jan. 21 at 11:30 a.m. AEDT, covering building and engineering activity for September 2025. These numbers offer a key glimpse into housing and business demand, crucial for understanding bank credit growth. 7
Next up is inflation. The ABS will publish the Consumer Price Index for December 2025 on Jan. 28 at 11:30 a.m. AEDT. This figure is expected to heavily influence investor expectations ahead of the RBA meeting scheduled a few days later. 8
NAB’s next key date is its first-quarter trading update on Feb. 18, per the bank’s investor calendar. This will give management a chance to detail lending growth, margins, and credit quality following a quieter summer period. 9
There’s a clear downside risk. Should labour or inflation figures come in unexpectedly strong, prompting a quicker rethink of the RBA’s path, bank stocks could react swiftly. Plus, with mortgage-rate competition heating up, holding onto revenue gains isn’t a given, even if rates remain elevated.
