SYDNEY, Feb 4, 2026, 17:19 AEDT — After-hours
- NAB climbed 2.1% to close at A$43.93 on Wednesday.
- Following the RBA’s 25-basis-point increase to 3.85%, major lenders raised variable mortgage rates.
- Attention now turns to the RBA minutes due Feb. 17 and NAB’s trading update set for Feb. 18.
Shares of National Australia Bank (NAB.AX) climbed 2.1% to finish at A$43.93 on Wednesday, swinging between A$42.27 and A$43.94 during the session. Commonwealth Bank of Australia edged up 2.6%, Westpac rose 1.45%, and ANZ Group ticked 0.79% higher. The S&P/ASX 200 wrapped up 0.8% stronger, according to data from Investing.com. 1
The Reserve Bank of Australia lifted the cash rate target by 25 basis points to 3.85% on Tuesday, signaling a notable pick-up in inflation during the latter half of 2025. This move keeps major lenders under the microscope as the rate outlook shifts. 2
Net interest margin—the difference between what banks earn on loans and what they pay out on deposits and other funding—is the key driver for banks. A slight shift in that spread can shift earnings forecasts significantly.
Australia’s top four banks announced a 25 basis point increase in variable mortgage rates, with NAB’s standard variable home loan rate set to rise from Feb. 13. This marks the first rate hike in two years, Reuters reported. 3
Economists remain divided on the RBA’s next move. Callam Pickering of Indeed doubts the bank will stop after a single hike, anticipating another increase in May, but thinks “a lengthy hiking cycle … appears unlikely.” On the other hand, David Bassanese from BetaShares sees “one and done” as his baseline. 4
But rising rates can backfire. When deposit competition pushes funding costs higher faster than mortgages reset, any margin gains may vanish. And those bigger repayments risk squeezing borrowers more as the year goes on.
Investors won’t have to wait long for the next update. NAB is set to release its first-quarter trading update on Feb. 18. The market will be watching closely for any signs on loan growth, pricing trends, and bad-debt provisions. 5
Prior to that, the central bank plans to release minutes from its February meeting on Feb. 17. The following policy decision is set for March 17, after the board meets on March 16–17. These dates should influence positioning as next week’s trading unfolds. 6
